While many know that Bill Gates and Warren Buffet are the two wealthiest, Tony Sagami notes that few know the third: Sheldon Adelson. In his Asia Stock Alert, he explains, "Adelson is the founder and CEO of Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS), our latest featured stock." Here, he looks at the gaming company and its bright prospects in Macau.
"Due to its strategic location in the South China Sea, Macau has a rich history as an Asian trading hub. To this day, it looks more European than Asian. And its popularity with tourists is absolutely exploding - an estimated 27 million visited Macau last year.
"The majority (55%) came from mainland China, but many more visited from Hong Kong (30%) and Taiwan (9%). These tourists are flocking to Macau not because of its history or picturesque seaside location. They're coming to gamble.
"And boy, did they gamble! On my last visit to Macau, I saw table after table filled with boisterous high rollers routinely making $100,000 bets. These 'whales' account for about 80% of Macau's gambling revenues.
"Today, Macau has become the Las Vegas of China. It is the only city in the region with fully legalized gambling. And gambling is deeply engrained in the Asian culture. Plus, Macau is within a five-hour flight of three billion people - nearly half the world's population.
"The Presidential Election cycle is one Wall Street truism that has historically proven to have merit for investors," explains money manager, advisor and market historian Jim Stack.
In his InvesTech Market Analyst, the advisor reviews the basics of this cycle, its historical merit, and what the Presidential cycle portends for the market's action between now and Election Day.
"Since we are in the midst of an election year, this cycle warrants review. During the 4-year Presidential Election cycle there is a characteristic variation in annual stock market returns that is evident in historical data and actually makes sense when one thinks about it.
"Basically, it boils down to just 'good politics.' Politicians worth their salt understand the goal: get any bad economic news over early during your term and have the economy back on track and humming along by Election Day.
"Consequently, the worst stock market performance typically occurs in the first two years after a Presidential Election. The third year, as politicians begin gearing up for re-election, is usually the best year on Wall Street by a wide margin, and the only year where the average gain in the S&P 500 tops 10%.
As you saw in a Market tankola note earlier, today can be blamed on oil or many other things. But the charts are likely the real culprit as old resistance levels didn't hold as the new support levels. The bears may have gotten an upper hand for a while if today's sentiment holds.
To top it off, worker productivity data came out strong enough today that it might even allow companies to make more layoffs. Below are the unofficial closing bell prices today:
Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) beat Street estimates for earnings Tuesday with $1.77 billion in net income, or $0.29 EPS, a 5.4% drop from first quarter 2007. Sales of $9.79 billion beat estimates of $9.75 million. Cisco gave 2008 guidance that met expectations as demand for Cisco's costly networking systems may still be slow during the economic slowdown. Shares fell 2% to $25.78 despite being positive earlier this morning.
A funny thing happened this afternoon, but it won't be funny to the bulk of investors. Late this afternoon, the frustration and panic started setting in. You can blame a lot of it on many things, but the real fault may be the charts. The DJIA was off 165 points to 12,855.71 and the S&P 500 was off even worse, down 20.59 at 1,397.67.
The market sell-off was small early on but then reached certain sell levels that had been prior resistance levels on the way up. These numbers have been rounded for ease: When the S&P 500 didn't hold right at 1,410.00, that added more pressure. Then, when 1,405.00 didn't hold, it added on another wave of sellers, and now 1,400 will act as a stead line of resistance, maybe beyond today. But it sure looks like we just lost the first cushion and moved out of that S&P up-trend after the 1,400 level was violated.
Was there news? Sure. Word came today that one of the suicide bombers in Iraq had been a Guantanamo POW; we also got word of an earthquake in Japan. But that darned dinosaur water, or black gold, just won't quit rising even when you get news that looks like it could fall. Today's higher oil inventories didn't do anything to stop the climb in oil prices and they rose $1.68 to $123.51 per barrel .
Many of these market whips come and go, but it sure looks like the pessimists and the bears just got the upper hand over the bulls today.
The stock market was down without much conviction in the early going with the DJIA off 40 to 50 points. But someone must have pulled the plug somewhere as it has been dropping fast from about 2 p.m. and the Dow was down over 180 points as I pecked away at the keyboard.
What the heck changed overall market sentiment so suddenly? Some say it's oil prices drifting higher. That's always a good scapegoat and probably has something to do with it. It might also be a connected issue with the raging conflicts in the middle east and Africa.
There is always the negative sentiment about housing, employment, last night's democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina just muddling on. It might also be our current president just muddling on, or it might just be that all of these things just prompted some profit taking after weeks of appreciation.
Maybe it is my pal Warren's negative sentiment about the financial sector and the years of pain that may still need to be worked out of the system. Whatever it is you can be sure that after the market closes the Wall Street pundits will discuss all their presumptions as if they were facts...
UPDATE: The DJIA closed at 12,814.35 down -206.48, or -1.59%
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.
The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers shows consumer sentiment at a 26-year low: "The April result is the lowest since March 1982's level of 62.0., when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still an issue for many Americans."
But is that a bad thing? A quick look at history shows that it probably isn't. The last time consumer sentiment was this low was right before the beginning of the longest bull-run in history. The best book on that era is called Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust: 1982-2004. The chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average performance during 1980-2000 pretty much tells the story. See the little divot on the far left side? Yeah, that was 1982.
So don't get too depressed about consumer weakness. The last time things looked this bad, they ended up working out better than ever. And anyone who sold on the scary headlines regretted it very quickly.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
There is a well known investment strategy that says that investors should by stocks at Halloween and sell them at the end of April. Statistically, most market gains have occurred during that six month period, so the theory says to buy stocks then and when May comes, you should sell.
This time around, the 'buy at Halloween' plan would have been a bad move. With markets reaching their highs at the end of October, investors would have ended up buying the market high only to watch the market collapse. Now that we have finally had a good month, loyalists to the theory would have you sell.
I got a call from a client who asked what I thought about implementing the strategy on his account. I actually think that the market may be setting up for a nice spring and summer rally. It appears that the market has the potential to keep moving higher. While the economy slowed down, it didn't enter a recession, and corporate earnings have generally beaten estimates. Coupled with the economic stimulus checks that are supposed to be arriving in our mailboxes any day, this looks like the year that the 'sell in May and go away' strategy isn't going to be successful.
How about 'buy in May and watch your portfolio go up up and away!'?
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/30/08
In the stock market, there are the indexes of consequence.
Certainly, the closely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average is perhaps the world's best-known stock market index, as it serves as an indicator of both U.S. economic conditions, and the nation's economic prospects, 6-9 months ahead.
For those who are advocates of technical analysis, including yours truly, the DJIA's 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average, also are important, among other technical measures.
"There are more reviews and intensity, but no real change to the strategy,'' Immelt said told Bloomberg News. ``The strategy remains intact.''
Really? Shares of the Fairfield, Conn.-based company have slumped about 13% this year. The stock had its biggest fall in 20 years after reporting disappointing results. Immelt, though, either is oblivious or cool under fire. I am not sure which.
The Dow was down as much as 150 points today as oil rose, the dollar fell and corporate earnings were mixed at best. As of 1:15, the Dow is at 12,684, down 140.
Bad news for the equities markets seems to be popping up just about everywhere you look. Not even good earnings from McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) could cut through the gathering economic gloom, and Mickey D's is down on lower same store sales despite the good earnings news.
Oil flirted with a record $120 a barrel, while gold was up $6 to $924. Banks are still looking deeply troubled as the housing market bubble keeps deflating. And the dollar fell through the $160 mark against the euro for the first time ever.
It may be that the reality of a recession is starting to sink in among traders. Of course, there are plenty of bears out there who are saying 'I told you so'. Rising oil prices and the falling dollar are two sides of the same coin: a declining American economy. While traders have not given in completely, they are nervous. "We're in a day-to-day assessment of how good earnings season is, and right now there's more bad news than good news -- the parade has been less positive than we've anticipated." So said Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. The implication is that we haven't seen anything yet. A few more weak earnings reports, and there's no telling how far this market could drop.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the good stuff out there -- and there's a lot of it -- will keep us going up.
How high can we go? That's pretty much the only question worth asking after you put in a bottom, as we did after the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) collapse.
Nobody's talking about a new bull market. But let me give you some thoughts about what has happened in the past few weeks to make it so that you could become more positive.
First, we went down so much because the systemic risk in the biggest part of the S&P, the financials, was overwhelming. It is why we "overcorrected" because the market feared -- and shorts pressed their bets -- that the following institutions could go under: Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual (WM) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (WB) (Cramer's Take) -- yes, Wachovia, because of the miserable buy of what turned out to be a really reckless lender, Golden West -- Lehman Brothers (LEH) (Cramer's Take), Merrill Lynch (MER) (Cramer's Take), Citigroup (C) (Cramer's Take), National City (NCC) (Cramer's Take), Capital One (COF) (Cramer's Take) and even Wells Fargo (WFC) (Cramer's Take). Fannie (FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie (FRE) (Cramer's Take), too.
It was June 7, 2006 when I set up a tracking portfolio for our great eight stocks. AOL Money & Finance started BloggingStocks with a focus on these companies based on investor interest. Today, they still stimulate a lot of interest, and comments.
The following share prices are from the original tracking date now updated to last Friday's close, April 11, 2008. Earnings season is upon us again. The Iraq war is still in the headlines, as are the presidential elections, energy prices, recession fears and our latest calamity -- the shameful Washington/Wall Street axis of financial evil. Here are the BloggingStocks eight:
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was $60.00 and is up to $147.14 gaining 145%.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was $32.00 and is down to $30.87 losing 3.35%.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) was $34.50 and is down to $32.05 losing 7.1%.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was $380.00 and is up to $457.45 gaining 20.38%.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was $22.50 and is up to $28.28 gaining 25.69%.
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) was $17.50 and is down to $14.27 losing 18.46%.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) was $47.00 and is up to $54.80 gaining 16.6%.
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was $31.00 and is down to $28.34 losing 8.58%.
So after 22 months we find four stocks are up and four stocks are down. Apple is the clear winner and remains the company to watch going forward. New trend-setting products are introduced regularly and few companies can match its inventiveness or marketing genius. Steve Jobs has hit a grand slam. Microsoft, the perennial cash generating machine, came in second with very strong results given the current state of the economy.
Among the surprises and the one I have taken the most flack for is that Google has not done very well in my eyes. It has been highly volatile and makes for a good trading stock, but if you add the dividend of 3.48% to Wal-Marts appreciation you have about the same growth with one tenth the downside risk.
eBay and GE are remarkable for having achieved nothing over our review period, and although they are down now I consider them break-even investments because they have been trading a few bucks higher and a few lower the entire period. Lots of promise, little results.
Lastly, Time Warner and Yahoo! are big disappointments. Time Warner (owner of BloggingStocks) has a new CEO and change is in the air. Yahoo! is in Microsoft's cross-hairs and looks like it will be something else in a few months. Ironically the two companies are in the midst of discussions to find a way to help each other out of their stagnation. I hope they succeed. Both have great franchises that are struggling to gain traction. Both must contend with Google and Microsoft.
Going forward Apple may be the best bet and Microsoft will probably continue to mint money. The others may just tread water for a while.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY, and TWX.
Today the Booyah man himself, Jim Cramer, thinks the market is heading up. Cramer says: " It's a natural thing in this market, after a big move, to give it all back and then some. However, that has not happened this time. We have had a series of small declines, nothing monumental and we may have to recognize that we are in a new pattern where we have profit-taking but no more."
Now I happen to agree that the recent market action could potentially be a signal that we are ready to power up. After all, we have been beset with continued bad news and for the first time in five months we aren't selling off. We had a lousy employment report this past Friday and the market barely flinched. We haven't seen a triple digit down day for the DOW since the 27th of March. Since the low on the 10th of March, exactly a month ago, the market has moved up about 7%, very quietly I may add. Technically, this looks like a good set-up.
I think Cramer is great and I realize that if you constantly have to give your opinion of what the market is in store for, you are going to be wrong a high percentage of the time. The problem is that how can he go from being so bearish to becoming a bull. Just 48 hours ago he posted, " Tech Stocks Face Real Trouble."
Like Cramer today, I think that the market may be setting up for a very strong rally. Let's just hope tomorrow's post doesn't change that.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/10/08.
Stocks started out in slightly positive territory on what appeared to be more good news out of a major institution. Then oil inventories showed an unexpected decline, sending oil up up over $2.00 per barrel to $110.56 and later even above $112. Throw in a couple of weak earnings reports and the fears that earnings season is going to be tough, and the bears got to rule today.
Below are today's unofficial closing levels for major US index levels:
Dow: 12,328.49, down 0.38%; Nasdaq 2,322.12, down 1.13%; S&P 1354.56, down 0.8%
Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) saw a sharp drop today, and that was before the earnings news was out after the close. A Piper Jaffray downgrade led to the sharp drop today.
Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) proved to be a typical example of what is becoming redundant. The company lined up a sale of $12 billion of dollars worth of leveraged loans for some 90 cents on the dollar.
"The Presidential Election cycle is one Wall Street truism that has historically proven to have merit for investors," explains money manager, advisor and market historian 
The stock market was down without much conviction in the early going with the DJIA off 40 to 50 points. But someone must have pulled the plug somewhere as it has been dropping fast from about 2 p.m. and the Dow was down over 180 points as I pecked away at the keyboard.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
After posting a 
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the good stuff out there -- and there's a lot of it -- will keep us going up.
It was June 7, 2006 when I set up a tracking portfolio for our great eight stocks. AOL Money & Finance started BloggingStocks with a focus on these companies based on investor interest. Today, they still stimulate a lot of interest, and comments.
The week in preview: Smooth sailing ahead
Comfort Zone Investing: One thriving area of real estate: Apartments
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
