Now that it is clear that Wal-Mart's (NYSE:WMT) international operations are growing much faster than its US division, the company is searching for new frontiers. Revenue overseas is growing at a rate better than 20%
Wal-Mart has had trouble in some countries. Its operation in Japan continues to loss money and it has pulled out of Korea and Germany.
Now, the world's largest retailer is looking to Russia and eastern Europe for more growth. According to the FT, Wal-Mart "firmly signaled its intention to expand into Russia and eastern Europe, announcing that it had recruited Stephan Fanderl, a German retail executive, to explore opportunities in the region."
It will be at least a couple of years before the market can gauge whether Wal-Mart can have success in the region. It has to compete with other companies like big European retail chain Tesco. The Wal-Mart model clearly does not work in all cultures.
A break-down of Wal-Mat's track record overseas is telling. It problems in Germany, Japan, and Korea have been more than off-set by successes in China and Mexico. To some extent that may mean that countries with lower median incomes are better markets for the company. Russia and Eastern Europe are a mixed bag. Parts of Russia have done very well financially. Eastern Europe is still in a stage of economic development.
Wal-Mart may be expanding outside the US, but its success is hardly assured.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The advisors explain, "Surveying the horizon of industrial companies, the most promising is Bermuda-based, Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR). This is a stock you want for the next 12 months."
"The stock market is a leading indicator; it starts to decline before the economy slows down, and it starts to advance well before the economy improves. These lags often results in a stock market that starts moving up just when the public becomes 'convinced' that the problems are serious.
"Economic reports are likely to get worse. Housing foreclosures are likely to increase. Many more employees are likely to be let go. These are the perceptions that currently haunt investors.
"However, these are often the very same perceptions that create bottoms in the stock market. It is hard to see how the economy will crawl out of this mess, but eventually it will. The groundwork is now being laid.
"It may seem counter-intuitive, but investors should start planning for the next expansionary cycle. Markets move well ahead of facts, and it's time to invest accordingly. And indeed, industrials have risen in our rankings in recent weeks.
"A global leader of broad-based equipment offerings, Ingersoll-Rand is positioned to capitalize on the next phase of development like no other company in its sector. Here's why.
Two leading global experts have both turned bullish on France's Veolia Environnement (NYSE: VE). Vivian Lewis, in her Global Investing, notes, "Veolia is the way to play the 'water works square' on the monopoly board."
Nicholas Vardy, editor of Global Stock Investor suggests, "The smart money is betting that water may be the 'oil of the 21st century.' And Veolia is my number one way to profit from this global megatrend."
Vivan Lewis says, "We recommend buying French water and sewage conglomerate Veolia at current prices; the stock has been brought down by niggling Euro-concern about its levels of debt. The company is also being penalized for acquisitions.
"Veolia is the former Générale des Eaux, a municipal service firm. This history creates an image problem for VE which is seen as a utility.
"Our main reason for the buy, apart from price, is that this is a fast growing company with good earnings in a hot sector. In 2007, VE had revneues of euros 32.6 bn, up 14% on which its recurring net profit fost 22.5% to euros 933.2 mn. Earnings per share were euros 2.16, up 13.7%.
"Another reason for liking VE is that it is moving into China big-time, with waterworks in Tianshin and Shibai and environmental service in Juijiang. All in all, France still represents 44% of sales and the rest of Europe 36%. VE does about 10% of its business in the U.S. and the Chinese are part of the remainder.
Validea is a fascinating newsletter that assesses stocks based on the known criteria of "legendary" stock investors, such as Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch.
Here, editor John Reese reviews Telefonica (NYSE: TEF) -- a Spain-based telecom firm with operates in Europe and Latin America -- based on the strategy of quantitative analyst James O'Shaughnessy.
"James O'Shaughnessy has noted that 'disciplined implementation of active strategies is the key to performance.' He should know; his study of 44 years of stock market data is one of the most extensive ever of the market.
"The system he devised based on that research produced average back-tested returns of 22% per year for those 44 years. At times like these, it's more important than ever to heed his advice, and keep your emotions in check by focusing on fundamentals.
"Telefonica (NYSE: TEF), based in Madrid, Telefonica is involved in the communications, information, and entertainment arenas in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. The firm has a presence in more than 20 countries and more than 218 million customers.
This post is one of several on business heirs apparent. Let us know in the comments whether you think Charlene de Carvalho-Heineken's heir should take up the reigns of Heineken, and be sure to check out the other heir apparent posts.
It was Charlene de Carvalho-Heineken's father, Alfred "Freddie" Heineken, who built the family business from a small Dutch brewer into Europe's largest brewing empire. A well-known bon vivant, he was friendly with the Dutch royal family, and his sense of humor didn't abandon him even after a three-week kidnapping ordeal in 1983: he claimed that his kidnappers tortured him by making him drink Carlsburg.
On Freddie's death in 2003, his heir apparent and only child, Charlene, became the wealthiest woman in the Netherlands, now worth more than $7 billion. She lives a more low-key life in London with her five children and stock broker, and former Olympic skier, husband. She continues to hold the controlling stake in Heineken, though she hasn't been as involved in the company day-to-day as her father was. She told a family biographer that she intends to keep the business together until her heir apparent, her eldest son, is old enough to take on the mantle.
"U.S. Global Investors (Nasdaq: GROW) has been growing its revenue and earnings at an accelerated pace over the last few years, notes Horacio Marquez, adding "And that pace is about to pick up after a recent mild respite."
The contributing editor to The Money Map explains, "We expect very strong gains in this stock to come in short order." Here, he looks at the fund management firm.
"The reason is very simple. If you couple some of the best minds in emerging-market investments and commodity investments with a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative approach, you get consistently top-performing funds with eye-popping returns.
"Last year, four of the firm's equity funds, – representing more than 80% of the money under management – were among the top performers in the overall U.S. mutual fund universe, in the one- and 10-year time periods.
"And in the fund-management business, strong, consistent fund performance drives growth in assets under management. And since growth in assets under management drives fees, it is no surprise that this company has been able to achieve operating income growth rates of between 27% to 94% over the last 10 years.
"In fact, the company should see accelerating earnings growth in the second half, as the interest rates cuts favor higher commodity prices and emerging-market investments – areas in which U.S. Global's funds excel.
"Central Europe & Russia Fund (NYSE: CEE) is a closed-end fund that invests in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Turkey," says global investment expert Nick Lanyi.
In his industry-leading High Yield International, the advisors explains, "The fund's diversification, high yield and top-notch management team make it the best high-income play on the region today." Plus, he adds, "Now is a particularly great time to invest in these regions." Indeed, he remains strongly bullish on Russia, rgardless of any concerns expressed by political pundits regarding Russia's elections.
"The fund's largest country allocation (about 50% of assets) actually is to Russia, not Eastern Europe. I consider that a plus, because it gives investors exposure to Eastern Europe's strengths, but with the valuable ballast of an accompanying investment in Russia's natural resources sector.
"Prominent Russian natural resource firms Lukoil, Gazprom, and Norilsk Nickel account for about a quarter of the fund's total assets. With the prices of energy and mining commodities in a long-term uptrend, a large natural resources stake could come in handy in a volatile market.
"Central Europe & Russia Fund (NYSE: CEE) is a closed-end fund that invests in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Turkey," says global investment expert Nick Lanyi.
In his industry-leading High Yield International, the advisors explains, "The fund's diversification, high yield and top-notch management team make it the best high-income play on the region today." Plus, he adds, "Now is a particularly great time to invest in these regions." Indeed, he remains strongly bullish on Russia, rgardless of any concerns expressed by political pundits regarding Russia's elections.
"The fund's largest country allocation (about 50% of assets) actually is to Russia, not Eastern Europe. I consider that a plus, because it gives investors exposure to Eastern Europe's strengths, but with the valuable ballast of an accompanying investment in Russia's natural resources sector.
"Prominent Russian natural resource firms Lukoil, Gazprom, and Norilsk Nickel account for about a quarter of the fund's total assets. With the prices of energy and mining commodities in a long-term uptrend, a large natural resources stake could come in handy in a volatile market.
The rise in oil prices now seems relentless. The price has now crossed $103. MarketWatch reports, "Ecuador's state-run oil company, Petroecuador, suspended operations at a key export pipeline after a landslide damaged infrastructure." While the news may be moderately important, it is hardly a reason to send the global price of crude up. It is a sign that the oil market will react to even the most mundane information.
The psychology of oil trading seems to have changed in the last month. Consumption from emerging countries including China and India has remained high. Concerns about whether older oil fields can produce at current rates have been reported on repeatedly. OPEC has indicated that it may cut production slightly. The unpleasant political problems in Venezuela and Nigeria have been in the papers and on TV since last year.
It may be that the facts of life are dawning on the big oil consuming countries. There is no reason for producers to bring down prices. They are making hundreds of billions of dollars a year. The impact of alternative fuels is decades off. America, Europe, and Asia have not curtailed oil use because of high prices.
Greed has hit the market square between the eyes, and there is no sign that the oil market will see any relief when the money to be made comes so easily and without consequences
Wall Street has speculated for some time that Altria's (NYSE: MO) international units will be spun-off from its domestic tobacco operations. The company's board believes that this will allow overseas operations to work without the baggage of regulations and lawsuits that the firm faces in the US.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, "the separate entity, for example, would be exempt from US tobacco regulations and out of reach of American litigators. Importantly, its practices would no longer be constrained by American public opinion, paving the way for broad product experimentation." Put another way, the international operations will be able to make stronger, and perhaps more dangerous tobacco products, for large markets in Europe and Asia.
China will be a major target for the new public company to be called PMI. Other large markets the company will focus on include Indonesia and Pakistan.
The Altria international operations are about four times as large as those in the US. That alone may make the case for the company to be independent.
But, at the end of the day, the name of the game is selling much stronger cigarettes to people who want them in markets where regulation is lax. A good way to make money, but bad for the lungs.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
As concerns over America's economy began to spread in 2007, many investors decided to look overseas for protection. In order to hedge themselves against a possible economic slowdown in the U.S., traders poured money into emerging markets such as India and China, but some are starting to question just how safe these markets will be this year.
Last year, when it looked like the U.S. economy was going to get hit with a weak dollar and nasty housing market, it made sense to look to different markets for protection, but now some are fearing that the problems that are plaguing America will reach a point where they will pull down foreign economies also.
What we have seen in 2008 is a pretty substantial downtrend in some of last year's favorite safe havens. Markets such as Korea, Thailand, Turkey and Brazil have all been hit in the first half of January and are down over 8 percent.
Toyota (NYSE: TM) sees a bright future for itself in India. Since the country is building a number of new roads and drivers are moving from motorcycles to cars, that would make sense. But the Japanese car company has to get busy. According toThe Wall Street Journal, "In all, GM (NYSE: GM) remains ahead of its Japanese rival in 15 of the world's 20 largest car markets." And China, India, and Russia are going to be critical to the global growth of any car company.
To enter India, Toyota will have to produce very cheap cars, but it wants to maintain its reputation for quality. That could keep margins low.
The largest car company in Japan also must face the fact that many car companies already have footholds in India, so Toyota is not moving into the market at its earliest stages. Local companies like Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM) are likely to put up a spirited defense of their sales.
Toyota may have found moving into the U.S. market relatively easy. When the economy is good, American car sales can run close to 17 million units a year. People buy new cars every two or three years. Quality is important to consumers.
India may be very, very different. And plenty of rivals are waiting to keep Toyota out.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Financial Timescolumnist Martin Wolf, an economist, poses the question, "Will CO2 emissions limits lead to a zero-sum global economy?" – an economy characterized by stagnant (or declining) incomes, and armed conflict among nations?
Wolf argues that increased energy consumption per capita, primarily oil from fossil fuel, has been a key causal factor in creating the plus-sum economic world we live in, which he calls the positive-sum economy. Or in other words, rising energy consumption has helped produce rising productivity / real incomes / wealth, and the expanding global economy that we know today.
In addition, Wolf further argues that rising energy consumption transformed politics -- assisting both the birth of democratic politics at home and more-consensual foreign relations among states -- by increasing the size of the economic pie. Elites in a country, Wolf argues, became more willing to tolerate the enfranchisement of the masses because it was in the elites' economic interest to do so: i.e. that energy consumption created a more-productive (and more-valuable) citizenry with higher incomes.
Internationally, a nation's gains from the increased trade that characterizes the high-energy consumption era far exceed its gains from making war with another nation: the plus-sum global economy that trade produces supports today's norm of trade as opposed to the limited-sum world's norm of conflict and war.
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"Mechel OAO (NYSE: MTL), Russia's second-largest producer of long steel products," is our favorite speculative play for 2008," say co-editors Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous in Vital Resource Investor.
"The company operates one major steel mill with a capacity of close to 5 million tons of output per year. Mechel operates in Russia, Lithuania and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. Its ace in the hole is a mining business that focuses on raw materials used in making steel, primarily coking coal, iron ore, nickel and steam coal.
"The company's steel business is 100% self-sufficient in coking coal, 80% in iron ore and 50% in electricity. This aspect of Mechel (i.e., vertical integration) is critical in an environment where raw material prices continue to rise. And it should support the stock because its performance this year has been nothing less than dazzling.
"Mechel is a high-cost producer, and management has worked to cut costs while improving efficiency. Those efforts have been quietly successful up to now, and we expect this to be an ongoing positive theme.
"And Russia's strong domestic demand -- within and outside the all-important energy sector -- is an additional advantage for the company. Buy Mechel at current prices."
For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.
"My favorite conservative pick for 2008 is Mobile TeleSystems (NYSE: MBT), the largest cellular operator in Eastern Europe, with 50 million subscribers," says Yiannis Mostrous in The Silk Road Investor.
"The company has licenses in 87 Russian regions, Ukraine, Belarus, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, covering a population of more than 233 million people. Russia accounts for almost 80% of consolidated revenue, while Ukraine is the second largest contributor.
"This is a company that offers good exposure to Russia's domestic demand growth. Russia is currently in a sweet spot: It's a net oil exporter, has good GDP growth, isn't dependent on foreign capital flows, is relatively stable politically, boasts reasonable market valuations and, above all, enjoys solid exposure to the biggest growth story of our time, Asia.
"Mobile Telesystems will continue to experience strong growth given the regional economic strength. Its valuations are still reasonable and it actually trades at a discount to a lot of its peers in the emerging market universe. This should make it a stock to own going into what is shaping up to be an uncertain New Year.
"The company's investments in its various markets have started producing positive results and it also continues to consolidate operations while taking advantage of market growth. Buy Mobile TeleSystems up to $110."