Analyst Upgrades

• Brinker (EAT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Starbucks (SBUX) to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Paccar (PCAR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• CA Technologies (CA) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• PPL Corp. (PPL) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• ConocoPhillips (COP) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• First Defiance (FDEF) to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• MasTec (MTZ) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Amdocs (DOX) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Analyst Calls

• Medtronic (MDT) to buy from neutral and 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) to neutral from sell at Goldman.
• CarMax (KMX) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Points International (PTSEF) to buy from neutral at Merriman.
• Nokia (NOK) to market perform from underperform at Morgan Keegan.
• Amdocs (DOX) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Western Alliance (WAL) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• Carbo Ceramics (CRR) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Rackspace (RAX) to buy from hold at Benchmark Co.
• Brinker (EAT) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.

Analyst Upgrades

• Verisk (VRSK) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Marriott (MAR) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Bernstein.
• Jefferies upgraded Teekay (TK) and Tsakos Energy (TNP) to Buy from Hold.
• Cadence Design (CDNS) was upgraded to sector perform from underperform at RBC Capital.
• BofA/Merrill upgraded NV Energy (NVE) to buy from underperform and Education Realty Trust (EDR) to neutral from underperform.
• Men's Wearhouse (MW) was upgraded to buy from hold at Stifel.
• William Blair upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to outperform from market perform.
• Freeport McMoran (FCX) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.

Analyst Upgrades

• BMO Capital upgraded Concho (CXO) to outperform from market perform and has a $73 price target on the stock. The firm cites valuation and sustainable growth for the upgrade.
• Sterne Agee upgraded City Holding (CHCO) to buy from neutral based on valuation. The firm has a $34 target on the stock.
• UBS upgraded Werner Enterprises (WERN) to neutral from sell based on valuation. The firm raised its price target to $21.50 from $21.
• Nvidia (NVDA) was upgraded to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Colfax (CFX) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Camden Property (CPT) was upgraded to top pick from outperform at RBC Capital.

Brinker International (EAT) has elevated its outlook for fiscal 2010, as evidenced by a 27% increase in its quarterly dividend, to be made effective with its fourth quarter payment.

The operator of the Chili's and Maggiano's restaurant chains said it expects full year 2010 earnings to come in between $1.40 and $1.44 per share. The previous estimate was for between $1.15 and $1.30 earnings per share. According to a PR Newswire press release, provided by DailyFinance, the fourth quarter dividend will be paid on July 1, 2010, to shareholders of record as of June 17, 2010.

Brinker International (NYSE: EAT - option chain) stock is falling today after the company announced it has entered into a deal to open 25 Chili's Bar and Grill casual dining restaurants in Russia, starting with the first in late 2010. Traders are not reacting well to this news, but in my opinion a downturn is the best time to consider expansion if you can afford the costs. If you think this stock won't be falling too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged play on EAT.

This morning, EAT opened at $13.85. So far today the stock has hit a low of $13.68 and a high of $13.97. As of 11:35, EAT is trading at $13.80, down 27 cents (-1.9%). The chart for EAT looks neutral and S&P gives EAT a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

On Tuesday, Norman Brinker, pioneer in the restaurant business, died at the age of 78.

Norman Brinker started Steak & Ale with about $10,000 in savings and a $5,000 loan. Over a decade, he grew Steak & Ale to 109 locations. During the 1960s, Brinker developed the salad bar, which he showcased at his Steak & Ale chain. He then sold the company to Pillsbury in 1976.

However, Brinker didn't stop innovating. At Pillsbury, he formed a new concept: Bennigan's. After this, he ran Burger King (NYSE: BKC).

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Lennar (NYSE: LEN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company's near-term liquidity profile is improved following the $400M debt issuance. The firm raised its target price to $12 from $11.
• Jefferies upgraded Rowan Companies (NYSE: RDC) to Buy from Hold as it believes jack-up drillers will continue to outperform deepwater names. The firm raised its target price to $27 from $20.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded First Financial (NASDAQ: FFIN) to Market Perform from Underperform to reflect more positive loan data for the Texas banks. The firm raised its target price on shares to $44 from $38.
• MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities.
• Brinker (NYSE: EAT) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Panera is one company that has plenty of room for expansion.

If the restaurant stocks are stabilizing after a real downturn that has lasted for several weeks, this group -- a leadership group from the fall when gasoline fell in price -- is going to have a wicked move back.

I like Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) (Cramer's Take), which never broke down. This is one in which technicians signaled weakness, with Top Gun Rick Bensignor and I going head to head on "Mad Money." He was right that it initially would downtick, but I think it is bottoming along with McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) (Cramer's Take). It's got the growth and it has good tumbling raw costs. The dollar's going the way for both stocks.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (NASDAQ: BBBY) easily topped Q4 earnings estimates but same-store sales fell.
• Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) forecast Q3 earnings that are well above analysts' estimates.
• Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) said it narrowed its loss in Q4 despite restructuring costs.
• Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (NYSE: EXM) is expected to fall short of Q4 earnings expectations.
• Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported strong Q2 results and and raised its outlook for Q3.

Brinker International (NYSE: EAT - option chain) shares are headed higher today after the company forecast third-quarter earnings of 44 to 45 cents per share, well above analysts' estimates of 29 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on EAT.

EAT opened this morning at $18.14. So far today the stock has hit a low of $16.93 and a high of $18.20. As of 11:25, EAT is trading at $17.20, up 0.95 (5.8%). The chart for EAT looks bearish and S&P gives EAT a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Among all the layoffs at tech companies and banks, layoffs at restaurants are barely a plink-plink-plink dropping in the unemployment bucket. Restaurant employees, after all, often work more than one job and variable hours, and turnover is extremely high. It's not one of those made-for-Hollywood scenes when restaurants lay off employees (with the conference room filled with HR consultants and stacks of separation agreements); the picture looks more like gradual reduction in hours until one day you're just not on the schedule. Or, one cocktail waitress at this location, a hostess at the other location, handing in their aprons and their time cards. Perhaps it's just that applicants for empty jobs never get a call back, no matter how awesome their experience.

The Wall Street Journal today evaluates a report that jobs at food service establishments have decreased for five months in a row, and says waiters and waitresses are earning less in tips. Once-darlings of Wall Street, Brinker International (NYSE: EAT)'s Chili's and Starbucks (NASDAQ: SBUX) have seen many outlets close. To blame: it's the economy, naturally, with patrons eating out less, downscaling to fast food for family nights out, ordering less expensive food, and reducing tips from 20%-plus to exactly 15%. Adding insult to injury is the half-of-minimum-wage pay that servers and bartenders are paid in many states: it's been $2.13 an hour since I graduated high school (I can still remember the ignomy when my $21 weekly paycheck from the little Lexington, Virginia pub where I worked in college bounced -- that's how you know your employer is struggling!).

These aren't good times to work in the restaurant industry, or invest in anything but the bare-bones-est of eating establishments.

Brinker International (NYSE: EAT - option chain) shares are headed lower today. Last week, an analyst expressed concerns about potential weakness in the casual dining sector due to families that may have stayed home to watch Olympic coverage rather than going out for dinner. Today, there is some weakness throughout the sector, on stocks like Darden (NYSE: DRI) and Cheescake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) as well. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on EAT.

This morning, EAT opened at $19.34. So far today the stock has hit a low of $18.87 and a high of $19.41. As of 12:15, EAT is trading at $18.95, down 62 cents (-3.2%). The chart for EAT looks neutral and S&P gives EAT a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $22.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in two months as long as EAT is below $22.50 at October expiration. Brinker would have to rise by more than 18% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

EAT hasn't been above $22.50 since May and has shown resistance around $21 recently.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in EAT, DRI, or CAKE.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AFLAC Inc. (NYSE: AFL) reported better-than-expected earnings for the first quarter.
• Ambac Financial Group Inc. (NYSE: ABK) posted a wider-than-expected loss; shares hit new low.
• Amdocs Ltd. (NYSE: DOX) beat Q2 estimates on strength in the managed services businesses.
• Amphenol Corp. (NYSE: APH) beat expectations in the first quarter and raised its guidance.
• Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: AMLN) posted a larger-than-estimated Q1 loss.
• Aptar Group Inc. (NYSE: ATR) posted record Q1 results and raised its Q2 guidance.
• Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) Q1 earnings plunged on further housing-related write-downs.
• Brinker International Inc. (NYSE: EAT) narrowly beat earnings expectations on cost cutting.
• Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE: BMY) beat analysts' estimates for the first quarter.
• Credit Suisse Group (NYSE: CS) reported a wider-than-forecast loss on subprime-related write-downs.
• Cree Inc. (NYSE: CREE) earnings slipped while revenues soared 29%.
• Eli Lilly & Co. (NYSE: LLY) reported worse-than-expected Q1 earnings on discontinued product charge.
• Gannet Inc. (NYSE: GCI) beat low expectations as earnings and revenue continue slump.
• Hasbro Inc. (NYSE: HAS) posted better-than-expected Q1 earnings on international strength.
• JAKKS Pacific Inc. (NASDAQ: JAKK) missed Q1 expectations on restructuring and litigation costs.
• Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB) beat EPS estimates by a penny, as revenue jumped 10%.