Investors and traders are in a quandary, trying to figure out if the economy is, indeed, improving.

One measure of growth is consumer spending. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP, and it is the engine that has kept the economy growing over the past decade.

Well, consumer credit has fallen for eleven straight months. The recession has taken a harsh toll on the consumer. We have about 17 million people out of work. These persons certainly are spending only for basic necessities.

Jobless claims are big news in the financial markets and can cause the stock market to move; politicians to scurry looking for new programs and claim to be able to create or "save" a certain number of jobs.

Just this week the Labor Department reported January unemployment dropped to 9.7%.

Germany's industrial production has led the rebound in Europe. That was until the last quarter of 2009. In December, Germany's industrial production dropped 2.6% after rising 0.7% in November.

Germany supposedly turned the corner in the second quarter of 2009. But Alexander Koch, economist for Unicredit in Munich said: "The most vibrant part of the rebound" in industry was apparently over. One reason is that Germany ended subsidies to its auto industry recently.

Several factors converging on the metals markets are causing a sell off.

First, China has taken steps to curb bank lending. Much of the Chinese stimulus money has gone into the purchase of raw materials. Now, with things cooling down, traders are less willing to stockpile base metals.

Second, U.S. payrolls fell by 20,000 last month, indicating sluggishness in the U.S. economy.

Well, this was a nice surprise ... the unemployment rate fell to 9.7% in January from 10% in December, according to the Labor Department. This is good news, as expectations were for the unemployment rate to hold at 10% -- so some people are finding some jobs somewhere.

That said, the number of nonfarm payrolls dropped by 20,000 while expectations called for a gain of 25,000. With stock futures limiting some of their early morning losses, it looks as if investors and analysts are holding on to the unemployment rate news rather than the news that more jobs were lost than expected.

This morning the big news of the day was the drubbing of European stock markets as fear spread throughout the region. Fear was generated by concern that some European countries could default on their sovereign debt. Among them are Greece, Spain, and Portugal.

Greece's budget gap is 12.7% of GDP Greece has to slash spending and may need IMF assistance.

Investors sold investment deemed risky such as commodities, gold and stocks and moved their money into bonds. This started a selling frenzy in commodities with oil falling $3.14 per barrel to $73.14 per barrel. Brent crude fell $3.79 per barrel to $72.13 per barrel.

The Commerce Department reported that factory orders for December rose more than expected. Here are the numbers:

• Orders for durable goods rose 1%. The government had estimated a rise of 0.3% for December. Durables last for several years.
• Bookings for capital goods, a measure of future business investment, rose 2.2%, after a rise of 3.2%.
• Shipments of those goods rose 2.1%. These shipments are used to calculate GDP.
• The economy expanded 5.7% in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace in six years.
• Purchases of equipment and software increased 13%, the highest since 2006.
• On the negative side, new claims for unemployment rose to 480,000.
• The Institute for Supply Management report showed manufacturing in January expanded at the fastest pace in five years.
• Greater demand for notebooks and desktop computers fueled record sales for hard drives.

While these numbers are tame, the fact that we have slow, steady progress increases business and consumer confidence.

Much of the change in the economy is psychological. As we see steady improvement quarter over quarter, confidence gets restored, business replenishes inventories and consumers are buying again.

Do you believe that we are on the road to recovery?

Initial claims for unemployment rose by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 480,000 in the week ended January 30. This surprised economists polled by Reuters who anticipated a drop in claims falling to 460,000 from a previously reported 470,000. A reason given for the rise was the backlog in filings due to short staffing at some state offices.

Meanwhile, the four-week moving average of new claims rose 11,750 to 488,750 last week. The number of workers still receiving aid after one week jumped 2,000 to 4.6 million for the week ended January 23. This too, was above expectations of 4.58 million. The percent of insured in the labor force was unchanged at 3.5%