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Asia Pacific & Africa's Contribution to Ford's Stock Price

FordFord Motor Co. recently reported its highest net income in more than 10 years. We currently estimate Ford's International operations contribute 35% to its stock price – similar to its North American operations that contribute 35.6% if we include both cars and trucks together. In 2010, with $7.4 billion of automotive sales, Ford's Asia Pacific & Africa operations contributed 6.2% to its total automotive sales of $119 billion (up 0.9% from its contribution in 2009). We expect that international operations will become increasingly more valuable for Ford. Ford competes globally with automakers like BMW, GM, Daimler, Audi, Honda, Toyota and others.

We have a price estimate of $20.59, which is around 37% above the current market price.

Continue reading Asia Pacific & Africa's Contribution to Ford's Stock Price

Chasing Value: The NBA Should Learn from Others

There have been many lessons to learn from the "Great Recession." But while the message is often clear, we can't always muster the courage, discipline or consensus to act on these lessons.

The National Basketball Association (NBA) is about to enter its second season -- the playoffs. And for a Laker fan in Los Angeles, there is much to look forward to. However, the current NBA collective bargaining agreement will end and we will have to witness another battle between the billionaires and the millionaires.

Why can't the NBA learn from other businesses that have successfully maneuvered through economic turmoil to achieve profitability?

Continue reading Chasing Value: The NBA Should Learn from Others

Analyst Calls: CAKE, CNP, EW, F, GR, NDAQ, NYX, RGLD, STI, SWN ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Goodrich (GR) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
  • Ford (F) to neutral from underperform and CenterPoint Energy (CNP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
  • Dollar Financial (DLLR) and Edwards Lifesciences (EW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
  • Alterra Capital (ALTE) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and P.F. Chang's (PFCB) to buy from neutral, as well as SunTrust (STI) to neutral from sell, at Janney Capital.
  • Arch Capital (ACGL), Axis Capital (AXS), PartnerRe (PRE), Everest Re (RE) and Transatlantic (TRH) to buy from hold, as well as W. R. Berkley (WRB) to hold from sell, at Citigroup.
  • Optimer Pharm (OPTR) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: CAKE, CNP, EW, F, GR, NDAQ, NYX, RGLD, STI, SWN ...

Closing Bell: Starting Off Q2 (AIB, F, FFIV, LOGM, NYX, ODP, PAYX)

The market hit a high for 2011 today after the unemployment rate fell to 8.8% and after the economy created about 216,000 jobs. The Institute of Supply Management showed a slight drop for March, but investors were positive most of the day. Selling in the last 90 minutes of the day felt a bit surprising -- but that may be nothing more than pre-weekend profit taking.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones: 12,376.72 +56.99 (0.46%)

Nasdaq: 2,789.60 +8.53 (0.31%)

S&P500: 1,332.41 +6.58 (0.50%)

Continue reading Closing Bell: Starting Off Q2 (AIB, F, FFIV, LOGM, NYX, ODP, PAYX)

Ford's Investment in India Is Paying Off

Ford (F) has been successfully solidifying its position in the Indian car market over the last year when it launched Ford Figo. Booming sales of the Ford Figo helped Ford India post a 184% growth in sales in 2010. This helped Ford compete globally with automakers like GM (GM), Daimler (DKX), Honda (HMC), Toyota (TM), Maruti Suzuki, Hyundai and others. We believe Ford's transformed position in India and its aggressive growth plans can provide significant upside potential to Ford's stock value.

We have a price estimate of $20.59, which is around 42% above the current market price.

Continue reading Ford's Investment in India Is Paying Off

South America's Contribution to Ford's Stock Value

Ford Motor Co.(F) reported 2010 full year net income of $6.6 billion, which was its highest net income in more than 10 years. We currently estimate Ford's international operations contribute 35% to its stock price – almost similar to its North American operations (both cars and trucks together) that contribute almost 36%. In 2010, Ford's South American operations contributed 8.3% to its total automotive sales of $119.3 billion (up 0.6% from 2009). We expect that international operations will become increasingly more valuable for Ford. Ford competes globally with automakers like BMW, GM (GM), Daimler (DDAIF), Audi, Honda (HMC), Toyota (TM) and others.

We have a price estimate of $20.59, which is around 42% above the current market price.

Continue reading South America's Contribution to Ford's Stock Value

Analyst Calls: AMTD, COG, DO, F, GM, HUM, LEA, MMI, NKE, SI, TRW ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Siemens (SI) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Diamond Offshore (DO) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
  • MeadWestvaco (MWV) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
  • TD AmeriTrade (AMTD) and Cabot Oil & Gas (COG) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
  • Janus Capital (JNS) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
  • Motorola Mobility (MMI) to buy from neutral at UBS.
  • Frontier Communications (FTR) to neutral from underperform at Macquarie.
  • Humana (HUM) to buy from hold at Argus.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AMTD, COG, DO, F, GM, HUM, LEA, MMI, NKE, SI, TRW ...

Ford's New GPS System Is a Super Gas Saver

Ford logoDo you use a GPS System in your car? If not, here are some points to consider. GPS systems give you the shortest distance to your destination. With gas nearing $4.00 per gallon, a GPS could save you priceless gas and save you money.

Yet, using a GPS does not always ensure a gas savings. Take for example a traffic jam. While your GPS is giving you the shortest route, you could waste a lot of gas sitting for hours in tied up traffic.

Continue reading Ford's New GPS System Is a Super Gas Saver

Options Update: Ford Volatility Flat; Shares Near Four-Month Lows

Ford (F) overall option implied volatility of 39 is near its 26-week average of 38, according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional price movement.

JCPenney (JCP) announced better-than-expected cost controls and sales growth. Overall option implied volatility of 41 is near its 26-week average of 41, according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Toyota Up on Earnings News

Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) were running smoothly this afternoon. At the time of this writing, they were up 3.3% to $87.96. That wasn't too far away from the new 52-week high of $89.31 that was set earlier in the session.

Driving the move was a third-quarter earnings report. According to the Associated Press, net income declined by 39%. While that may not be something investors would want to buy, here's the part of the story that they apparently are giving a bid: management increased its outlook for the full-year profit, expecting it to come in at around $6 billion instead of $4.3 billion.

Continue reading Toyota Up on Earnings News

Options Update: Ford Volatility Low as Shares Trend to Three-Month Lows

Ford (F) overall option implied volatility of 36 is below its 26-week average of 39, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

KKR & Co. (KKR) February 15 and 17 calls are active on total call volume of 9,000 contracts, compared to 3,000 puts. February call option implied volatility is at 43, March is at 41; above its 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data. Active volume suggest traders positioning for larger price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Ford Punished After Earnings Report

FordDid you see the price action in Ford (F) Friday? I shouldn't call it price action; instead, I should refer to what I saw as an act of total carnage. Seriously, down over 13%?

That's what happened. Volume was, as one might expect, huge. The price of the automobile manufacturer settled at the end of day to a quote of $16.27. The 52-week low for the shares is $9.75 while the 52-week high is $18.97. The one-year chart shows a stock that has been doing very well. Investors want to know if this is a simple bump in the road on the way to further capital appreciation.

Continue reading Ford Punished After Earnings Report

Closing Bell: Geopolitics Again Rules, Knocks Markets (EGPT, GLD, USO, AMZN, F, TRMK, VZ, JDSU)

Friday was a day that felt more like a blast from the past rather than just another Friday in the markets. In short, it was a sea of red when it came to stocks. A less robust GDP figure was one thing, but the violence and rioting escalating in Egypt was much larger. Earnings also contributed some, but Friday was a day of geopolitics. Oil and gold were higher on geopolitical concerns.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 11,823.70 -166.13 (-1.39%)
S&P 500 1,276.38 -23.16 (-1.78%)
Nasdaq 2,687.06 -68.22 (-2.48%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: Geopolitics Again Rules, Knocks Markets (EGPT, GLD, USO, AMZN, F, TRMK, VZ, JDSU)

Futures Lower as Investors Await GDP Data, Amazon Earnings Disappoint

U.S. stock futures are slightly lower this morning after weaker quarterly results from Amazon.com (AMZN). Investors are awaiting figures on Q4 economic growth. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 9 points to 11,935 and S&P 500 futures fell 1.70 points to 1,294.10. Futures for the Nasdaq 100 dropped 4 points to 2,319.00.

Most U.S. stocks ended the day higher Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 4.39 points or 0.04%.

Data on U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Continue reading Futures Lower as Investors Await GDP Data, Amazon Earnings Disappoint

Comfort Zone Investing: Can You Feel the Pendulum Swinging?

a golfer swinging - economic pendulum - comfort zone investingEconomies go in cycles. They push to their breaking points, then move in the opposite direction. We saw it clearly in the '90s when there was no end to up (except there was and we abruptly hit it in 2000). In 2008, it felt like there was no end to down. But we now know there is. Things are picking up, and there are numbers to prove it.

Don't be the last to figure out we're in an economic recovery. Sitting on the sidelines, waiting for one more chance to buy a stock at the bargain price you saw in March of 2009 isn't going to happen. Times have changed. The U.S. economy is on the mend.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Can You Feel the Pendulum Swinging?

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+33.0712,878.20
NASDAQ+2.092,904.08
S&P 500+2.721,347.05

Last updated: February 08, 2012: 12:14 AM

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