I honestly thought Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) Speed Racer would take the top spot over the Mother's Day weekend at the domestic box-office marketplace. Thankfully, I was wrong, since I own shares in Marvel Entertainment (NYSE: MVL).
Instead, Marvel's blockbuster Iron Man, which is distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA), grabbed the honors. According to estimates at Boxofficemojo.com, Iron Man grossed more than $50 million while Speed Racer drove away with about $20 million, good for second place. Yes, these are estimates, but I'll tell you what, my friends any changes to them later on won't alter the tale of Marvel beating the bigger studio. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) new film, What Happens in Vegas, took in a similar amount to Racer and is currently pegged in third place. While first place is a lock, it's possible that second and third positions will be changed. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Made of Honor and General Electric's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal comedy Baby Mama were fourth and fifth, respectively.
This was Iron Man's second weekend, and I couldn't be more pleased by its performance. Hopefully, the picture is on its way to grossing at least $250 million domestically; subsequent weekends will get tougher for Marvel as more summer flicks open and gobble up screens and mindshare. For now, though, the company is a superhero. I just hope that the new Hulk, which will be opening soon,is a lot better than the one put out a few years back. For coverage on Marvel's latest earnings report, check out Sheldon Liber's recent piece.
Disclosure: I own shares in General Electric and Marvel; positions can change at any time.
Lionsgate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF) came out on top this past weekend. According to Boxofficemojo, the studio's film The Forbidden Kingdom took in about $20.9 million at domestic movie theaters, driven perhaps by the star power of Jackie Chan. That's more than I thought it would do. (I should point out, though, that all the numbers discussed here are based on estimates -- finalized figures will be out at a later date.)
Forgetting Sarah Marshall, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures, was second with $17 million (I also thought this might do less). Jason Segel is the star of the TV series How I Met Your Mother and was also on one of my favorite TV shows, Freaks and Geeks. Then we have Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Prom Night, which came in third with $9 million. That was quite a drop from last week's $20 million debut. In fact, going back to the spiel about estimates vs. final numbers, when I covered the box office winners last week, Prom Night was originally credited with a $22.7 million take -- this was eventually reduced to $20.8 million. I went and saw the movie last Thursday afternoon by myself -- I literally walked into a completely empty auditorium, first time that ever happened in my life (it was a large auditorium, too). Talk about creepy. Nevertheless, I guess I can see why Prom Night is fading so fast (it wasn't that bad of a film, I should mention). Sony's 88 Minutes and News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Nim's Island took fourth and fifth places, respectively.
But the big story of the weekend could be found in Lions Gate's triumph. The little studio scored again. One has to wonder when one of the majors, or perhaps a consortium of private equity concerns, is going to finally step up to the plate and buy it out. Those speculating on such an outcome have been waiting a long, long time. I like to follow Lions Gate, and I'm waiting for its stock to break out at some point -- it's got to happen one of these days.
Disclosure: I own shares of General Electric; positions can change at any time.
According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, moviegoers were in the mood for a bloody slasher. Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Prom Night came in at number one over the weekend at the domestic multiplex marketplace, with approximately $22.7 million in ticket grosses. Horror is back, baby, after the ruinous performance of Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) The Ruins. That film plunged to eighth place, and it has only taken in about $13 million so far after two full weekends on the silver screen -- as can be seen, the teen/college crowd responded much better to the slick marketing campaign behind Prom Night than it did to the one offered up in support of Viacom's project.
Street Kings from News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) couldn't even come close to Prom Night, as it only did about $12 million -- that was good enough for second place, though. Sony's 21 dropped to third place after two weekends at top, its total gross now standing at around $62 million. News Corp.'s Nim's Island was fourth, and George Clooney's Leatherheads, from General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal asset, is right now in fifth place with $6.2 million. Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!, the number-six film, was credited with a similar amount, so it might end up changing places with Clooney's unfortunate not-blockbuster.
Sony had a pretty good weekend between Prom Night and 21. I can see how the younger crowds reacted in a positive manner to the horror piece -- we are pretty much in the season, after all, when high-school kids across the land are preparing for the popular cultural rite. Plus, there is some significant brand equity to the title -- Jamie Lee Curtis starred in the classic 1980 film with the same name (to the best of my knowledge, this is not a remake of that cinematic icon). Sony's challenge now is to keep the momentum going and get this thing as close to $100 million as possible -- I don't think the century mark is 100% doable in this case, but approaching it will ensure that a new franchise is born. Who knows, maybe we'll see a Prom Night video game on the PlayStation 3.
Disclosure: I own shares of General Electric; positions can change at any time.
Film financing fascinates me. There's so much involved; determining the risk associated with a particular project (on some level, this is impossible to do, since you can't predict how the public will react to a cinematic concept), figuring out how much exposure to the film industry a studio and/or equity entity should have, trying to eliminate the potential to be blinded by the alluring glamor that an association with a Hollywood investment by necessity implies -- believe me, there's a lot of complicated financial and social politics going on when one puts together a deal.
So, the following article from Reuters caught my attention. It concerned Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) movie asset Paramount. The article states that Paramount is having something of a tough time lining up funds from investors for its next slate, and that it might be looking to set up about $400 million.
The problem is, hedge funds and other investors haven't profited as much as they expected to from their piece of the action in the movie business. Therefore, they could be reticent going forward in terms of supplying studios with monies to produce celluloid entertainment. This is very understandable in my opinion; the movie business is hit-or-miss, and evaluating a project's ability to secure a return is about as easy as receiving a compliment from Simon Cowell. The Reuters piece implies that deal structures will have to change, which is something I've discussed previously -- I definitely think movies could be cheaper if the powers that be would just get their acts together.
Look out, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) -- your arch enemy, Disney (NYSE: DIS), wants to be king of animation at the cinema over the next few years. Actually, I suppose other companies who produce animation, such as Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Viacom (NYSE: VIA), should watch out as well.
According to a Disney press release, ten cartoons will be released through 2012. The lineup sounds pretty impressive. We'll be seeing the third Toy Story movie in the summer of 2010, and two years later, audiences will be revving up for a Cars sequel. During the holiday season of 2011, a Pixar fairy tale called "The Bear and the Bow" will be weaving its magic (hopefully) in the multiplexes, which is interesting, because during the summer of that same year, Pixar will be releasing something called "newt", so fans will get two Pixar properties three years from now. Other animated projects include Bolt, which will use the voice talents of John Travolta and Miley Cyrus, and The Princess and the Frog.
Whew, there was a lot of cool intellectual properties in that press release, and as a Disney shareholder, I am excited at the prospects. But this isn't just about a bunch of cartoons, my friends -- not at all. This is a huge test for Bob Iger. Was he correct in spending billions to acquire Pixar and its talent trust, specifically John Lasseter? Mr. Lasseter, the chief creative officer for both Walt Disney Animation and Pixar Animation Studios, has a lot of pressure weighing down upon his shoulders. Not sure if he would actually admit that, but he does. He's the man who's supposed to see Disney's animation assets into the future, to bring Disney's animation brand back to prominence. Many people thought that Disney was losing its way in terms of traditional animation; to add insult to injury, some were questioning whether Pixar, when it wasn't part of Disney proper, was what Disney used to be -- innovative in its creativity, obsessed with quality, and driven to provide a moving experience for animation fans whenever they sat before the silver screen.
So, we'll see whether those billions invested in the Pixar acquisition truly will reap stellar returns on invested capital. It will be the performance of the non-Pixar films that will tell the tale.
Disclosure: I own shares of Disney; positions can change at any time.
According to Boxofficemojo, Sony (NYSE: SNE)'s 21 movie was number one over this past weekend at the domestic marketplace, taking in an estimated $15 million. This number may change once the final data comes in, but its worth noting that 21 is doing well for Sony's studio -- the casino movie's total gross so far is around $46 million, and if the numbers hold, this will be the second weekend in the top spot for the picture.
A movie that had a lot of buzz, George Clooney's period-sports comedy Leatherheads, came in second (maybe; I'll get to this in a sec) with $13.5 million. It's distributed by General Electric (NYSE: GE)'s Universal asset, and I have to say that it didn't feel like the movie would top the charts. Nevertheless, it came pretty close, and I have to admit that I thought it was going to totally bomb: didn't look interesting, didn't look like the kind of idea that I'd allocate capital toward, and its marketing campaign didn't seem too thrilling. But since George Clooney was attached to it, I'm sure studio execs were extremely confident. Maybe a fall release would have been better for this one.
And then we have News Corp. (NYSE: NWS)'s Fox, which was perhaps disappointed on the one hand and happy on the other. Nim's Island came in third, and third is almost always a glum spot for a debut rank. But Fox's Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!, which is still kicking in fourth place, has now grossed approximately $131 million after four weekends. Fox is certainly pleased with that one. I don't know when the company plans on releasing the DVD, but this box-office performance would seem to portend a brisk-selling DVD during the holiday season. However, Nim's Island is estimated right now to have grossed $13.3 million. When the hard stats are in, it could easily displace Leatherheads and take second best for the weekend. Poor George Clooney.
All the drama on Wall Street these days -- from the credit crunch to the housing slump, everything from runs on the bank to rogue traders -- had the Hollywood Reporter wondering recently why Hollywood isn't cashing in on the fun. Given how well most of the serious Iraq War/War on Terror movies have done lately, perhaps moviemakers will be searching for greener pastures. Heck, Gordon Gekko is scheduled to make a reappearance next year in a Wall Street sequel tentatively called Money Never Sleeps.
Until then, with a little help from the Internet Movie Database, here is a list of some of Hollywood's best takes on Wall Street so far.
American Psycho (2000). Christian Bale stars as a soulless investment banker with a taste for violence and kinky sex. Based on the bestselling book by Bret Easton Ellis.
The Bank (2001). This award-winning Australian film is set in a corrupt corporate bank, and like Pi features a maverick mathematician who may have found a way to accurately predict stock market fluctuations. Stars Anthony LaPaglia.
Barbarians at the Gate (1993). This Emmy-winning made-for-television movie is based on the leveraged buyout of RJR Nabisco in the 1980s. James Garner won a Golden Globe for his portrayal of the company's CEO.
Boiler Room (2000). A college dropout joins a small brokerage house and discovers that his new career isn't all it's cracked up to be. This film has been compared to both Wall Street and Glengarry Glen Ross. Stars Giovanni Ribisi and Ben Affleck.
Who was the big winner at the box office this weekend? It was Sony (NYSE: SNE) and its 21 movie starring Kevin Spacey. According to early estimates at Boxofficemojo, the film took in over $23 million in its first three days of release. Looks like the market is finally getting at least a little tired of News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! -- it fell to second place, raking in about $17 million, enough to put it beyond the coveted -- although not so impressive anymore -- $100 million mark.
Here, though, is the big surprise of the weekend from where I'm sitting -- maybe I'm not with it or something, but I thought that Superhero Movie was going to dominate. It was released by MGM and Dimension. How in the world could this have missed? It came in third with a horrible estimate of $9.5 million -- let's hope that number gets revised upward, because a gross of less than $10 million for a movie that should have been popular to the Scary Movie generationis pretty embarrassing. It seemed to have an effective marketing campaign, though; the commercials described what looked like a fun time at the multiplex, bringing home the fact that the spoof of films such as Spider-Man and X-men probably contained quite a few bellylaugh moments. Guess the timing just wasn't there for it.
I may turn out wrong about this, but I think Disney (NYSE: DIS) is making a mistake by working on a contemporary version of The Lone Ranger. According to The Hollywood Reporter, this is an upcoming project for producer Jerry Bruckheimer and the screenwriters Ted Elliott and Terry Rossio. Recognize the names? Yeah, they're from the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise.
Oh, man, as soon as I saw this headline, I immediately screamed inside my head -- I mean, what the heck are execs at Disney thinking?! I am so glad that even the Reporter article seemed to subtly question the worthiness of this idea, calling some of the elements of The Lone Ranger character possibly "musty to today's audiences." That's exactly what I was thinking! Look -- I know Bruckheimer and the gang are going to make sure this is all action-oriented and that it will have quick cuts and be fast and all of that great cinematic stuff, but, seriously -- The Lone Ranger? You're remaking The Old -- sorry -- Lone Ranger? No, as a Disney shareholder, this doesn't work for me. But here's a big suggestion -- make the storyline supernatural! Have the Lone Ranger chase a group of undead bandits or something. And by the way, please -- I didn't see any mention in the article of who will portray The Lone Ranger, so I'm assuming he hasn't been cast yet, so let me just say that you shouldn't give in to temptation and cast Johnny Depp in the role. That guy will be way too expensive.
This just isn't a strong concept to me. The Lone Ranger is a very ancient brand -- no offense intended, of course, it's just that, again, as a shareholder, I want the studio division to have the best possible chance of making a lot of money. This does not represent the best possible chance, and I don't think this remake will be as successful as Pirates. Disney should leave this one to the competition -- let Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Viacom (NYSE: VIA), Sony (NYSE: SNE), or News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) roll this particular pair of dice.
According to Boxofficemojo, News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! is still selling a lot of tickets at the domestic box office, earning about $25 million over the Easter weekend. Its cumulative total now stands at approximately $86 million. That performance was good enough for the film to retain its number-one standing for the second weekend in a row. This isn't terribly surprising, since quality family pictures have a good chance of doing well during holiday periods.
During the weekend, I composed a post about the Tyler Perry franchise and its importance to shareholders of Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE: LGF). Well, I was wrong about its potential in regard to Drillbit Taylor, which was distributed by Viacom (NYSE: VIA). While Tyler Perry's Meet the Browns is estimated to have grossed about $20 million in theaters, Taylor is credited with about half that amount. Apparently, the comedic star-power of Owen Wilson wasn't enough to trump the popularity of Tyler Perry's cinematic storytelling; Browns came in at second place, and it should be noted that its per-theater average was much higher than Horton's.
News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who! came in at number one over the weekend, according to early estimates at Boxofficemojo. The movie grossed about $45 million at domestic theaters. Even if that number changes a little, there's no chance that it will be knocked from the top spot, considering that Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) caveman epic 10,000 B.C. is estimated to have grossed about $16 million, which was good for second position.
Seth Rogen, who is the new toast of Hollywood and who will probably try to weasel his way into a Tom-Hanks kind of career (i.e., steadily move away from goofy roles and get into some serious dramas), provided his voice to one of the characters, as did his "frat pack" buddies Steve Carell and Jonah Hill. Jim Carrey, of course, is the big name on the movie's credits, but believe it or not, I thought of Rogen first when thinking about this flick -- guess his brand equity is indeed on the rise. It's not a movie I'd necessarily see, but it had a pretty good marketing campaign behind it, so I can understand its success.
The Wall Street Journalreported [subscription required] this morning that Time Warner (NYSE: TWX)'s Warner Bros. Pictures plans to film the adaptation of the seventh "Harry Potter" book in two parts. The first part of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows will be released during the holiday season of 2010 and the second part will follow six months later. A similar proposal was made for the filming of the fourth book, before enough material was cut from the book to facilitate a single film. Warner Bros. Pictures said that filming the book in two parts was "necessary to stay true to the tome."
The five "Harry Potter" films released thus far have grossed $4.5 billion according to the Journal, and expectations are high that the sixth film, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, will repeat that success when it is released later this year. Current director David Yates will stay on board for the final two installments, after directing the fifth film and the upcoming sixth film. In addition to "staying true to the tome," WB President Jeff Robinov admitted that "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows is 'packed with vital plot points' and that 'the best way to do the book, and its many fans, justice is to expand the screen adaptation.'"
Clearly, part of the scheme of adding an eighth film to the series is to continue the success the films have seen, as well as the record-breaking sales that the book's have enjoyed as well. Fans will likely welcome the decision, although not the time lag between the films, and question why similar methods were not taken for the longer fourth and fifth books. At the same time, they may also question the economics of it but the films will likely still do quite well and bring in further revenue that Warner Bros. looks toward.
Mammoths and multiplexes go hand in hand, apparently, especially if said mammoths are of the CGI variety. According to Boxofficemojo, 10,000 B.C., Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) prehistoric epic, pounded the rest of its competition like an angry caveman warrior clubbing a saber-toothed tiger (I didn't see the film, but I assume this happened at some point during the plot). The film is estimated to have taken in over $35 million (final numbers are due later today) at domestic theaters over the weekend. Disney (NYSE: DIS) couldn't even come close to Time Warner -- its family comedy, College Road Trip, right now stands at a gross of $14 million, which was at least good enough for second place. Erstwhile Disney Channel phenomenon Raven-Symone star in the flick, so at least there was a little bit of synergy in that respect -- Disney is nothing if not about synergy, as we all know.
Sony's (NYSE: SNE) Vantage Point came in third, and Time Warner's Semi-Pro, starring the hilarious Will Ferrell, came in fourth. Lions Gate's (NYSE: LGF) The Bank Job, which achieved fifth position,actually did pretty well, considering that its per-theater average of approximately $3500 was much higher than the per-theater average for the two films above it.
General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal Pictures asset received some good news the other day -- 75% of the studio's movie projects for the next few years will be funded, in part, by a financing entity known as Relativity Capital. According to The Hollywood Reporter, the deal calls for Relativity to help cover production costs, but not marketing programs; it could see about $500 million spread out over as many as 45 movies. Also, this is being described as a bona fide partnership -- not only will Relativity share in profits generated by ancillary channels, such as home video and television sales, but it will also have the power to co-greenlight a project, and it will be able to review the talent and budget attached to each project.
Financing by hedge funds and private equity is certainly not new in Hollywood; it's been around for a long time. So has the practice of selling off international rights and partnerships between studio competitors. Remember James Cameron's Titanic? It took the studio segments of both Viacom (NYSE: VIA) and News Corp. (NYSE: NWS) to shoulder that costly celluloid endeavor. But, although I recognize that filmmaking is extremely risky, and that a flop is very much in the cards whether or not big stars are in a film, I also have to wonder if it might be better for studios to simply lessen their risk by making much cheaper movies and foregoing the distribution of risk. What's my beef with distribution of risk? Well, I'm not the first to say this, and it's pretty obvious at any rate: hedge your bet, and you also limit your upside score in terms of a windfall.
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) executives were probably ecstatic last night after the drama "No Country for Old Men," which its Miramax unit co-produced, won the best picture Oscar. Today, they must be depressed because a record-low audience witnessed the company's triumph.
Ratings for the Oscar telecast, broadcast on the company's ABC network, were probably the lowest of the decade, according to the New York Times. The telecast drew about 33% of people watching television, a steep decline from last year's 42%, the paper said.
This isn't a surprise. For one thing, as the paper notes, the leading movies weren't exactly crowd pleasers. Moreover, viewers got into the habit of not watching television thanks to the recent Hollywood writers' strike. Once media habits are established, they are hard to change. Perhaps, people have got enough on their minds with the faltering economy to watch overpaid celebrities pay homage to other overpaid celebrities.
Disney ad sales executives may be forced to give advertisers so-called make goods because of the ratings shortfall for failing to meet guarantees for viewership. ABC may be forced to give free advertising time on popular TV programs such as "Desperate Housewives" to appease angry advertisers. That may negate some of the benefit to the bottom line from "No Country's" Oscar triumph.