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Four favorite funds: 'Perennial winners'

"For investors who seek superior relative performance but are unwilling to sacrifice dependability, the we offer four funds that consistently outperform their peers," says Richard Moroney.

In the mid-year forecast for his Dow Theory Forecasts, he explains, "All of these funds have outpaced category averages in each of last five years, and sometimes much longer." Here, he looks at those funds that he considers "perennial winners."

"To be sure, past returns do not guarantee future success. But, while the evidence is not conclusive, academic studies generally indicate performance tends to persist, particularly at the extremes. That is, the best funds continue to outperform their peers, while the worst funds keep lagging.

"Fidelity Export & Multinational (FEXPX), our favorite pick among large-company growth funds, is riding an impressive nine-year winning streak - the longest in its category. Among the more than 1,800 large-cap growth funds, less than 80, or roughly 4%, have outperformed the peer-group average for five straight years.

Continue reading Four favorite funds: 'Perennial winners'

The case for India and three ways to invest

"India is one of the hottest economies on the planet and holds tremendous profit potential," says Larry Edelson in Real Wealth. Here, he looks at a trio of fund poised to "capitalize on India's boom."

"India's economy is growing at a 9% rate, ten times faster than the U.S. and only a couple of percentage points behind China. And the Indian economy is not merely outgrowing the U.S. by leaps and bounds; it's also at the very epicenter of the booming natural resource markets.

"India has the fastest-growing population in the world, expanding at the rate of some 16 million per year. At that rate, India's population will exceed 1.4 billion people and be larger than China's by 2030.

Continue reading The case for India and three ways to invest

Count to yuan: New ETF banks on Chinese currency

"I've long believed that China's currency is due to appreciate notably against the buck," says currency expert Jack Crooks, upon returning from speaking at a Forex seminar in Beijing.

In his World Currency Alert he explains, "Until now, there's been no straight-forward, highly-liquid way to play it. Now there is: the WisdomTree Chinese Yuan Fund (NYSE: CYB)."

"I now think it makes sense to secure some exposure to the Chinese yuan. There's been a major U.S.-China dynamic that's drastically altered the global economic landscape over the last several years. It goes a little something like this:

  • China sends goods to the U.S.
  • The U.S. sends dollars to China.
  • China sends dollars back to U.S.
  • The U.S. sends treasuries to China.

"Ultimately, China supplies the globe with liquidity. Behind this capital flow is an artificially undervalued Chinese yuan. This exchange rate situation is why China has become a major supplier of goods and capital to the rest of the world.

Continue reading Count to yuan: New ETF banks on Chinese currency

'Persistent profits' from oil services

The need for oil drilling services will continue even if the price of oil declines, according to Richard Lehmann. Here, in his The ETF Investor, he looks at a favorite way for investors to play this trend.

"Oil prices have a triple or quadruple price boost associated with them. The first is supply/demand dynamics, the second is the weak dollar, the third is speculative fervor and the fourth inflation fears.

"A pundit said that last year it took 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil and today it still takes 65 Euros to buy a barrel of oil. This illustrates the effect the weak dollar is having on U.S. prices and the international price of oil.

"Inflation protection used to be the province of gold, but now it seems oil is serving a similar function. We think the current oil bubble has not run its course.

"One of our past recommendations, the Oil Service Holders Trust (NYSE: OIH), was first suggested in February 2006 at a price of $101.50. We recommended it again in December 2007 at a price of $179.83.

Continue reading 'Persistent profits' from oil services

Double play on coal: For investors and speculators

"We're continuing to emphasize conventional energy, solar, shipping, agriculture, and commodities," says Harry Domash, who adds, "But one industry we've overlooked so far is coal."

In his Winning Investing, he explains, "This month, we're adding two coal industry picks. One, a short-term play to capture the action in hot coal mining stocks, and the other, a long-term dividend-paying investment."

"We've avoided coal primarily because environmentally speaking, coal is bad news. Coal is mostly used to generate electricity and to power steel plants. Crude oil prices are so high because supply can barely meet demand.

"Think about what would happen to oil prices if coal wasn't available. Due to increasing global demand, coal prices are moving up dramatically and it doesn't make sense for us to ignore that.

"For longer-term investors, we recommend Natural Resource Partners (NYSE: NRP), a master limited parternship. The MLP owns coal properties in the Appalachia, Illinois Basin, and the Western U.S. NRP leases its properties to mine operators.

Continue reading Double play on coal: For investors and speculators

Naked Truth Investing: Has Morgan Stanley seen the light?

This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.

Among those who study the financial markets, Eugene F. Fama, the Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago, Graduate School of Business, is an icon.

He is a major proponent of the "efficient markets" theory which holds the well documented view that stock prices are random and efficient.

Professor Fama believes that analysts are unlikely to find profitable anomalies in stock prices on any consistent basis and he rejects the notion that past performance is a predictor of future performance.

Based upon his exhaustive research, Professor Fama believes investors would be well advised simply to capture market returns, by investing in low cost index funds, rather than paying brokers and advisors to select stocks or actively managed mutual funds, in an effort to "beat the markets."

At the other end of the investing spectrum is Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), a purveyor of the daily Wall Street grist, which advises its clients to rely on the expertise of its analysts in making decisions about what stocks to buy or sell and which actively managed mutual fund---and fund manager----is likely to outperform the markets or other funds.

Continue reading Naked Truth Investing: Has Morgan Stanley seen the light?

Naked Truth Investing: Do you really think you know more than Goldman Sachs?

This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.

Question: What about those "experts" who investing/trading only when temporary catalysts create irrational prices? Such as when a company like Kentucky USA Energy (KYUS) with no actual business spends millions on spam mailers...Or when broker margin calls force short sellers to buy into stock like Mexco Energy (MXC) and the sleepy stock surges from $3 to $50 within a few weeks--once the mailers and margin calls stop, would the odds not overwhelmingly favor a drop in stock price? (my strategy)

Answer: All of the information about listed companies is public. It is scrutinized by tens of thousands of professional traders and by millions of investors. This includes the kind of information you set forth in your question.

Ask yourself: Is it really likely that the professional traders at Goldman Sachs and other world class investment bankers have missed the significance of this information and that these stocks are not efficiently priced?

Continue reading Naked Truth Investing: Do you really think you know more than Goldman Sachs?

Naked Truth Investing: A retirement tsunami is coming: Will you be sleeping when it hits?

This is the part of a new series of columns called "The Naked Truth," by retirement expert Dan Solin. Please bring him your questions, in the comments box, and he will answer as many as he can.

There is no doubt that the coming retirement tsunami will make $4.00 a gallon gas look cheap.

In a thought provoking article, entitled Common Cents, by benefits consultant, Brooks Hamilton, the author notes these signs of impending crisis:
  • The majority of American either have no retirement plan or don't participate in the one they have;
  • Those that do participate, don't contribute early enough and don't make adequate contributions;
  • The returns earned by participants are dismal.
This perfect storm for retirement disaster is exacerbated by longer life expectancy and sharply increasing health care costs.

Continue reading Naked Truth Investing: A retirement tsunami is coming: Will you be sleeping when it hits?

Mark Mobius guides Templeton Emerging (EMF)

Paul Tracy believes Templeton Emerging Markets (NYSE: EMF) is a buy due to the emerging market expertise of its manager, Mark Mobius. Here's the latest from his from The ETF Authority.

"Emerging markets can dangerous waters for U.S. investors. These markets often have little to no analyst coverage and can be highly inefficient.

"As such, this is an area where expert active management can be well worth the higher price tag. And despite charging 1.55% in annual expenses, the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund certainly falls into that category.

"Given the potential pitfalls, it's reassuring to know that this fund is overseen by Dr. Mark Mobius -- a battle-tested veteran with decades of experience dealing with these uncertain stocks.

"While most funds have no discretion when it comes to making tactical decisions, Mobius and his team have the flexibility to steer clear of troubled regions or sectors -- and overweight those that look particularly promising.

Continue reading Mark Mobius guides Templeton Emerging (EMF)

Will Auction Rate Securities (ARS) holders get their money back?

Barron's [subscription required] summarizes the likely fate of different classes of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) holders -- the $330 billion market for securities that used to reset in weekly auctions before it froze up in February. It reports that If you hold ARSs sold by a municipality or a taxable, closed-end mutual fund you may already have gotten your money back or may do so within weeks. And those holding issues from tax-free, closed-end municipal-bond funds will likely see some money back before long. But others may have a long wait ahead.

I first wrote about this in February and since then, the post has accumulated 4,031 comments. I cannot imagine how difficult it must be for these people to think they had their money in a safe, money-market like fund -- only to discover that they could not get access to their money at all. It appears that many of these ARS holders did not receive a prospectus and were not warned that the auctions could fail.

Meanwhile, here's Barron's prognosis for the different classes of ARS holders:

  • Municipal Issuers. Issuers like cities and toll roads had about $165 billion of the ARS market. Bloomberg estimates that north of $63 billion of municipal ARS have been refinanced, and that ARS holders were bought out without losing any money. About half of the municipal auctions are working again, with interest rates in the 4% to 5% area.

Continue reading Will Auction Rate Securities (ARS) holders get their money back?

Investors want nothing to do with actively-managed ETFs

The product cycle on Wall Street generally goes something like this: development of great idea, huge success of great idea, commercial exploitation of great idea leads to other ideas that are terrible for consumers. It's sort of like the typical s-curve of any new product -- but on Wall Street, it can often be shaped more like a middle-finger.

The active ETF is a perfect idea of a great idea leading to a terrible idea. Traditionally, exchange-traded funds have been index funds, and the thousands of different breeds allowed investors to track an infinite number of indexes and strategies without the high costs of hiring a fund manager.

Now Wall Street is trying to sell investors on actively-managed ETFs. Why? They can make more money that way by charging exorbitant fees for performance that is unlikely to be any better than an index, especially after fees and tax consequences.

Continue reading Investors want nothing to do with actively-managed ETFs

Favorite funds for investing in convertibles

In the latest issue of his industry leading No-Load Fund Investor, fund expect Mark Salzinger reviews convertible bond funds, highlighting his two favorites.

Here, the leading fund authority looks at Fidelity Convertible Securities (FCVSX) and the "more conservative" favorite, Vanguard Convertible Securities (VCVSX).

"Convertibles are hybrid securities, often slight below investment grade, which can be redeemed for stock at a predetermined price and quantity.

"Because their values are often closely correlated to the value of the underlying equities, convertible bonds have more capital appreciation potential also more volatility than plan vanilla corporate bonds. However, because the value of their interest payments creates a floor of value, they tend to be less volatile than stocks.

"Our top convertibles pick is Fidelity Convertible Securities. The fund has been managed by Tom Soviero since 2005, since when it has generated an annualized return of 11.7% vs. 5.7% for Merrill Lynch All Convertible Index.

"Soviero is one of Fidelity's best portfolio managers. He favors convertibles that trade in line with the movements of the underlying equity's price and he wants the underlying equity to have an inexpensive valuation.

Continue reading Favorite funds for investing in convertibles

Investors looking for broad exposure to solar getting TANned

Everyone is talking about solar. Whether you believe that solar energy will somehow displace an oil-driven economy or not (I don't), some of these stocks like First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) and JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) have seen big gains over the past few years.

The success of solar companies has not been lost on ETF firms with their constant new products hitting the market. A smaller ETF firm called Claymore Securities looks to be first to the market with a solar ETF, the Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy Index ETF, with an aptly-named ticker, (NYSE: TAN).

Here's Claymore's website for the recently launched ETF. From the firm's website, the index defines a company engaged in solar energy as falling into two main categories:

1. Solar photovoltaic power, which involves the conversion of sunlight into electricity through the photovoltaic process; and

2. Thermal solar power, which involves using energy from the sun to heat fluids for purposes of water or space heating or to produce electricity.

Continue reading Investors looking for broad exposure to solar getting TANned

Bill Miller considers move away from focus investing -- why?

Legg Mason Value Trust manager Bill Miller built his reputation -- and the fortunes of his investors -- by beating the benchmark S&P 500 for 15 years, a streak that ended in 2006.

But since that run ended, the fund has struggled mightily with bad bets on companies like Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). Now Miller's investors are questioning his philosophy, and so is is the legend himself.

A big part of Miller's brilliant track record was his belief in focus investing -- concentrating his bets on a few stocks rather than a bunch. The Legg Mason Value Trust holds just 35 stocks. But according to the New York Times, that strategy is now being reconsidered. Miller said that "The question we are asking ourselves is: Should we think more broadly now about probability, about high-impact events and protecting against them by having broader exposure to the market?"

I seriously doubt that that's the right strategy. Miller is universally acknowledged to be a great stock picker -- diluting his influence by building a portfolio consisting of his 200 best ideas instead of his 35 best sounds like a sure road to mediocrity.

The larger point is this: After a 15-year streak of greatness, Miller has hit a rough patch. Two years of underperformance doesn't change 15 years of greatness, and this is a bad time to consider changing the strategy that led to his track record.

'New China' sees new era for Taiwan

"A new era could be dawning in Taiwan," says Asia region expert Keith Fitz-Gerald. Here, the editor of The New China Trader looks at an ETF and a mutual fund favorite to benefit from this forecast.

"While there were many reasons we recommended investing in Taiwan, perhaps the single most important was the potential for Taiwan to assume its role as 'China's real beneficiary.'

"We have been reasoning that President-elect Ma Ying-jeou would be far more interested in working with China than antagonizing it, as his predecessor did. We have also suggested that he would 'get on it' sooner rather than later by making relations with China a top priority.

"Indeed, Vice President-elect, Vincent Siew has already 'unofficially' met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines at the Boao Forum for Asia. While it's too early to pass judgment, it could set the stage for a new era based on the friendly nature of the meeting according to observers.

"It could also set the stage for a longer-term pan-Asian economic boom. That would be great for the region but especially China and Taiwan, which have had bone-chillingly cold relations for years.

"For China, a fresh start is important because it would allow Beijing to demonstrate peaceful intentions at a time when Tibet and the Summer Olympics have become a lightning rod for all things Chinese.

"For Taiwan, a thawing would lead to new economic development and, we think, previously unheard of levels of business interaction. It would also potentially carry huge trade volumes and stability into the surrounding countries.

"And that's why we reiterate that you buy iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (ASE: EWT) as well as U.S. Investors China Regional Opportunity Fund (USCOX)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Last updated: July 07, 2008: 11:34 AM

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