Legg Mason Value Trust manager Bill Miller built his reputation -- and the fortunes of his investors -- by beating the benchmark S&P 500 for 15 years, a streak that ended in 2006.

But since that run ended, the fund has struggled mightily with bad bets on companies like Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC), Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). Now Miller's investors are questioning his philosophy, and so is is the legend himself.

A big part of Miller's brilliant track record was his belief in focus investing -- concentrating his bets on a few stocks rather than a bunch. The Legg Mason Value Trust holds just 35 stocks. But according to the New York Times, that strategy is now being reconsidered. Miller said that "The question we are asking ourselves is: Should we think more broadly now about probability, about high-impact events and protecting against them by having broader exposure to the market?"

I seriously doubt that that's the right strategy. Miller is universally acknowledged to be a great stock picker -- diluting his influence by building a portfolio consisting of his 200 best ideas instead of his 35 best sounds like a sure road to mediocrity.

The larger point is this: After a 15-year streak of greatness, Miller has hit a rough patch. Two years of underperformance doesn't change 15 years of greatness, and this is a bad time to consider changing the strategy that led to his track record.

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"A new era could be dawning in Taiwan," says Asia region expert Keith Fitz-Gerald. Here, the editor of The New China Trader looks at an ETF and a mutual fund favorite to benefit from this forecast.

"While there were many reasons we recommended investing in Taiwan, perhaps the single most important was the potential for Taiwan to assume its role as 'China's real beneficiary.'

"We have been reasoning that President-elect Ma Ying-jeou would be far more interested in working with China than antagonizing it, as his predecessor did. We have also suggested that he would 'get on it' sooner rather than later by making relations with China a top priority.

"Indeed, Vice President-elect, Vincent Siew has already 'unofficially' met with Chinese President Hu Jintao on the sidelines at the Boao Forum for Asia. While it's too early to pass judgment, it could set the stage for a new era based on the friendly nature of the meeting according to observers.

"It could also set the stage for a longer-term pan-Asian economic boom. That would be great for the region but especially China and Taiwan, which have had bone-chillingly cold relations for years.

"For China, a fresh start is important because it would allow Beijing to demonstrate peaceful intentions at a time when Tibet and the Summer Olympics have become a lightning rod for all things Chinese.

"For Taiwan, a thawing would lead to new economic development and, we think, previously unheard of levels of business interaction. It would also potentially carry huge trade volumes and stability into the surrounding countries.

"And that's why we reiterate that you buy iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (ASE: EWT) as well as U.S. Investors China Regional Opportunity Fund (USCOX)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"Right now, we have a rare opportunity to get paid a monthly double-digit dividend and buy the skills of a legendary investment manager for only 85 cents on the dollar," says Dr. Steve Sjuggerud.

Here, in Daily Wealth, the advisor takes a look at David Dreman -- -- noted contrarian advisor -- and the opportunity currently offered in his closed-end fund, Dreman Value Income Edge Fund (NYSE: DHG).

"David Dreman made one of the greatest calls in stock market history. In 1980, he told investors to buy stocks. He didn't just tell a few clients or friends to buy stocks.

"He literally wrote the book on buying stocks in 1980 -- Contrarian Investment Strategies in which he argued, 'The stock market appears cheap by nearly every historical standard.'

"At the time, saying 'buy stocks' was bold stuff. Stocks hadn't made money in 17 years. But Dreman was absolutely right. After 17 years of losses, the stock market started the longest bull run in recorded history, which stretched from 1982 until 2000.

"Fast forward to 2008. Dreman is guarded, but optimistic again. In the May issue of Forbes he says: 'Frightening as the markets look today, there will come a time when the liquidity crisis ends and today's prices for bank stocks look, in retrospect, like bargains.'

"Today we have a unique opportunity to invest with David Dreman. Tthe Dreman Value Income Edge Fund pays 11.67 cents a month in dividends ($1.40 per year). Always has. As of the end of April, the fund's price was $13.69, so the dividend yield on the fund is over 10%.

"Interestingly, the actual value of the stocks and bonds the fund holds is $16.07 per share (as of the end of April). So by buying in at $13.69, we're able to buy in at a 15% discount.

"Dreman's Value Income Edge Fund is a bit of a strange beast. The goal of the fund is maximum returns with minimum variability. David splits his stock positions: half long, half short. And sometimes he borrows a little bit of money to leverage his gains.

"So he has three strategies going on at once... an income strategy (bonds), a 'long' strategy, and a 'short' strategy. The goal, of course, is to minimize risk.

"The income strategy portion helps pay the big dividend. The stock strategy - where David buys extremely undervalued stocks - will provide significant gains when the market gets going again. And the short strategy should continually add a few percentage points per year to our returns.

"So here's how we get to 60% in two years.. First, let's say David can grow the fund's underlying value by 10% per year. So $16.07 growing at 10% per year is roughly $19.44 two years later.

"Second, let's assume that the foolish investors who sold in a panic regain their composure, and the fund moves from trading at a huge discount to trading at its fair value - $19.44 in two years' time. Third, let's assume the dividend grows at 5% per year. Over two years, we'd earn a total of $3 in dividends.

"So if we could buy today at $13.69, and realize $22.44 (that's $19.44 plus $3 of dividends), we'd make more than 60% - safely - in two years. Dreman can do better than that. With nearly four decades of experience, he knows what he's doing. So you ought to consider the Dreman Value Income Edge Fund today, with the conservative goal of earning a safe return of 60% over the next two years."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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This post is part of our Battle of the Brands feature. Let us know which brand you prefer, and check out other Battle of the Brands posts.

To some degree, a face-off between Vanguard and Fidelity is really a face-off between John Bogle, Vanguard's founder, and Peter Lynch, Fidelity's star fund manager. While Bogle was a pioneer in no-load and low-cost investing in index funds, Lynch was a proponent of investing in "what you know," or getting investing ideas from your day-to-day life. BloggingStocks covered this Bogle vs. Lynch match up back in September, and readers gave the financial edge to Lynch.

Privately held Fidelity Investments is made up by two independent but closely cooperating companies: Boston-based Fidelity Management and Research LLC serves the North American market, and Fidelity International Limited (FIL), spun off in 1969, provides investment products and services to clients in the rest of the world. Fidelity reported revenue of $12.87 billion in 2006, by offering a large family of mutual funds, as well as providing discount brokerage services, retirement services, estate planning, wealth management, securities execution and clearance, life insurance, and a number of other financial services. The founding Johnson family still controls Fidelity, but Peter Lynch and some other fund managers also hold stakes in the company.

Headquartered in Malvern, Pennsylvania, the Vanguard Group offers mutual funds and other financial products and services to individual and institutional investors, and manages approximately $1.3 trillion in assets. Vanguard is unusual among mutual-fund companies in that it is owned by the funds themselves. Each fund contributes capital toward shared management, marketing, and distribution services. The company claims that this structure better orients management toward shareholder interests.

When founder John C. Bogle was an undergraduate at Princeton, he conducted a study in which he found that around three-quarters of mutual funds failed to earn more money than if they invested in the largest 500 companies, using the S&P 500 stock market index as a benchmark. The first index fund for individual investors, the Vanguard 500, has outperformed many other competing mutual funds.

Though Bogle retired from Vanguard as chairman in 1999, the company has continued to follow his emphasis on index funds and low expenses for share owners.

Does Peter Lynch and Fidelity still hold the edge in this match up? Or would you give the nod to John Bogle's Vanguard? In Money Magazine's recent list of the best mutual funds to invest in right now, of the top ten, four of them were Vanguard funds and only one was from Fidelity.

Vote in our poll for Vanguard or Fidelity as your preferred brand, and let us know in the comments why you love it.

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"We're bullilsh on meats," says Eric Roseman, who notes, "I'm convinced we're finally at a turning point in 2008 as farmers continue to cull their herds. At some point, I'm expecting beef and pork prices to surge."

Here, the resources expert and editor of The Commodity Trend Alert looks at an exchange-traded note with a memorable trading symbol -- iPath Dow Jones Livestock (NYSE: COW). Here is his review.

"With virtually all commodities soaring over the last several months, the meats have been a disappointment - until about ten days ago. I think we finally broke-out.

"Like the grains, livestock maintain a negative correlation to common stocks. It's a great portfolio diversification tool, especially in 2008 when equities cratered during the first quarter and most commodities rallied. Live cattle and lean hogs have been poor inflation-adjusted investments or speculations since the bull market in raw materials was set afire in 2002.

"Over the last six years, live cattle and lean hogs have gained just under 30% in nominal terms, or up barely 4% adjusted for inflation. That pales compared to the huge gains logged by the base metals, precious metals, the grains and other commodities.

"Now the tide is finally changing. Livestock producers are slaughtering more animals due to soaring feed costs. According to the USDA, the weekly slaughter rate of hogs was up 7% in March from 12 months earlier.

"Farmers are culling more hogs and live cattle because input costs are threatening not only their margins but their operational viability. It's no understatement that feeder costs are literally skyrocketing as grain prices have tripled since 2006. So for livestock producers, it's either downsize or go out of business.

"But as livestock herds begin to decline, supplies are bound to follow. Beef production is expected to fall 3.7% in the fourth quarter compared to 2007, according to the government's supply report.

"Plus, South Korea's recent announcement that it has lifted its ban on U.S. beef exports should drain whatever surplus currently exists in U.S. beef supply right at the same time seasonal consumption rises in North America amid the barbeque season.

"The way I see it, those steaks won't stay cheap for much longer. If hog-breeders in the United States have their way, the government might copy Canada's recent policy initiative not to grow their herds.

"The Canadian Harper government sponsored a program last year called the Federal Cull Breeding Swine Program that promises to pay Canadian farmers $50 million dollars not to produce more hogs.

"The objective is to reduce the supply of Canadian hogs, the supply of pork on the market and drive up prices. Ottawa is hoping to reduce the hog supply by about 10% so farmers can boost their incomes.

"In my eyes, when the government starts to get involved by subsidizing livestock farmers for not growing their herds, I get interested as a speculator.

"It's quite obvious to me that Canada, and probably the United States want to raise meat prices and give breeders a taste of the commodities bull market as they've been badly wounded by soaring feed costs, fuel prices and labor.

"I think the big picture for the meats is finally changing this spring and that's why I want you to open a new position in COW right away. BUY the iPath Dow Jones Livestock Sub-index ETN."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"Energy will remain on the front pages of news short term," says sector expert Jim Farrish in his SectorExchange.com. "The outlook remains optimistic." Here, he looks at favorited ETFs in energy.

"Energy and basic materials hit new highs last week raising the question of whether the two sectors overpriced? Overpriced stocks can become more overpriced and trying to guess when a run is over is a dangerous game.

"I am of the opinion to let the market or sector tell me when the run is over. This is done through the use of stops. By raising (trailing) your stops along with the rise in price you are always protecting the growth of your position. When the run is over and your stop is hit you are not trying to make a decision with emotions but predetermined logic.

"I continue to like the outlook for these sectors. The demand for crude has not fallen as expected over the last 4-5 months and has continued to put pressure on the price of oil. In the absence of demand falling we don't expect prices to recede to any great extent.

"Speculation in the energy sector remains a challenge. Political and sabotage risk remain in play adding to the speculation built into the current pricing level. We don't see this doing anymore than moving up and down based on current events.

"Then there is the issue of the dollar and its impact on the price of crude. I don't see the dollar gaining in strength to any significant level short term. This in turn means the price of crude will continue to account for the devaluation of the dollar.

"All this added together gives me reason to believe the energy sector will see reasonable growth looking forward. There could be a testing of the recent breakout short term which could create a potential opportunity. Maintain stops according to the risk you are willing to accept in light of a potential move.

"The long term trend remains bullish and the recent breakout took out the twelve month consolidation pattern. The daily chart shows clearly the break to a new high and the short term bullish trend that started off the lows in January.

"The vertical move over the last four weeks does raise some short term concerns and, as noted, we would set stops accordingly for these positions.

"Among ETFs designed for investors to participate in energy, we would point to the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Energy Sector Index Fund (ASE: IYE). This fund marks to the DJUSEN index performance before fees and expenses. This is a non-leveraged ETF. Its general risk category is growth.

"The Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares (ASE: DIG) seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to twice (200%) the daily performance of DJUSEN. The use of leverage magnifies the risk profile of this ETF. Its risk category is aggressive growth.

"This continues to be a long term play and nothing has changed short term or on the horizon. From here our approach has been to drill into the sector and find what is moving the index overall.

"Natural gas has moved up nicely over the last six weeks. We like the outlook for the sector as it gains traction as an alternative energy source along with the short term uptrend in play. The United States National Gas Fund (ASE: UNG) is the ETF for a play on natural gas."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."

The editor of Real Wealth offers two "core" favorites for those seeking to invest in the sector: streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY). Here is his review.

"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.

"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.

"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.

"India has a long tradition of gold investing. But with India's economy now growing at 8%+ annual rates, wealth is being accumulated in India like never before, and gold demand is also going off the charts.

"Thus, even without inflation and a falling dollar, the demand for gold from India and China alone is enough to propel gold higher.

" It could trade a little bit lower. No one can pick the exact bottom. The risk/reward of gold here, in my view, is about $1,300 an ounce of upside potential, versus maybe $100 of downside risk, worst case.

"Therefore, I think now is a great time to load up on gold. Over the next couple of years, the price of gold should trade as high as $2,200 an ounce, just to play catch-up with inflation and the falling dollar.

"The best way for core gold holdings, in my opinion: If you don't own it, buy shares in the streetTRACKS Gold Trust. This exchange-traded gold fund makes it easy for you to own physical gold without the hassles of taking delivery or storing the precious metal.

"You buy shares in the ETF, and they buy and store the gold for you. Each share in the streetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF represents 1/10th of an ounce of pure gold. So if you buy 10 shares, you're effectively buying the equivalent of 1 full ounce of gold.

"Second, buy shares in my top junior gold miner, Yamana Gold. The company is a leading Canadian-based gold miner with operations in gold - and copper - in properties in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and the United States (in Nevada).

"The company has seven producing mines, and is expected to increase its gold production from about 1.3 million ounces of gold currently to as much as 2.2 million ounces over the next four years.

"Yamana owns 17.9 million ounces of gold, worth almost $17 billion at gold's current price. What's more, Yamana's management is very savvy, using the company's copper production to help cover the company's cost of mining gold.

"This strategy has helped Yamana become one of the lowest, if not the lowest, gold producers in the world. Its cash cost to mine an ounce of gold is almost a negative $200 an ounce.

"That means for every ounce of gold it mines and sells at say, $930 an ounce, it's really taking in about $1,130 an ounce, or almost $200 more than gold's current market price. This is an immensely profitable mining strategy. It's time to buy Yamana on dips."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"Some 20,000 or more million-dollar block trades are made each day," says Peter Way in Block Traders ETF Monitor, which assesses the activity of these trades. Here's some current top "big block" bets.

"Since it's these big dollar pressures that move markets, we want to know what they are likely to do next. Our analysis determines what the pros' expectations are for the coming prices of stocks, from the way
they protect investments they have or are making.

"Based on our proprietary analysis of this big block activity, we determine the prospects for each ETF sector to determine where prices will be in the next 3 months. We seek the best balance of upside risk and downside exposures.

"We don't want to buy anything that doesn't offer a net payoff of better than 5% over three months, or an annual rate of +22%. International and global ETFs. and emerging markets still hold appeal, with MSCI Brazil iShares (NYSE: EWZ), the best bet.

"Where's the beef? Must be in MOO, the Market Vectors International Agricultural ETF (ASE: MOO). Prospects for it are the best combined odds & payoffs in the group.

"The ETFs that have been providing the most reliable and productive gains of late have been in commodities. Without any leverage, there are currently a number that appear attractive, given the volume market-makers' appraisals. The PowerShares DB Agricultural Index ETF (ASE: DBA) outranks just about all of the 2,500 issues we cover. PowerShares DB Commodities Index ETF (ASE: DBC) also offers strong buy credentials."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"When I evaluate the underlying fundamentals in the financial sector, I find myself ready to back up the truck," notes Louis Basenese, editor with The Oxford Club. Here he looks at a financial ETF.

"Recently GE shocked the world when it missed earnings expectations by seven cents because of difficulties in its financial services business, the seventh largest in the United States. Then Wachovia posted a worse-than expected $1.1 billion loss.

"Next was Washington Mutual which reported a $1.14 billion quarterly loss, worse than expected. And Merrill Lynch had a quarterly loss of $1.96 billion, also worse than expectations.

"Not to be outdone, the bottom of the line-up, regional banks (Comerica Inc., KeyCorp and PNC Financial Services Group) also struck out, reporting worse than expected first-quarter net income and/or mounting credit-loss provisions and net charge-offs.

"Remarkably, the Financial Select Sector SPDR (ASE: XLF) has barely budged. Indeed, its 15% higher than where it was when Bear Stearns collapsed.

"To me, when you keep piling on the bad news and prices don't head notably lower, a bottom (or darn near close) has likely been reached. It's believable too. Financials have thrown out everything AND the kitchen sinks in recent reports.

"So why act now? Because the downside's protected. Thank the Fed. Its 'bailout' of Bear Stearns put a safety net under the sector. That's not to say a major bankruptcy is impossible, but it's highly improbable and unlikely to push the XLF to a new low (below $22.29).

"And the upside could be huge. The last time the XLF bottomed out in March of 2003, it handed those brave enough to buy a 113% gain, including dividends over the next four years.

"Also adding urgency is the fact that short interest in the financial sector keeps hitting new highs. Eventually everyone will be forced to cover (by buying shares). And that means the reversal will come swiftly. If we're not positioned in advance, we'll miss out on a good chunk of the upside."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"A once in a lifetime super bull market in commodities is underway," note resource experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. Here, the advisors look at some favorite commodity stocks in their The Aden Forecast.

"Commodities are in a mega super rise is because of the dramatic changes in the global economy. The rise that started in commodities in 2001 has continued to expand over the years and we believe the upmove is just warming up and it has years to run.

"There are several reasons for this. The weakening dollar and low interest rates have certainly helped push up the whole sector while investment demand grew as an inflation hedge. But the key reason why the commodities are in a mega super rise is because of the dramatic changes in the global economy.

"China's need for natural resources has set off this global boom and it's been a big factor fueling the boom in emerging countries as well. It's also an important reason why the commodity moves are volatile. Supplies have become limited. So even a small disruption in supply shakes up the markets.

"We could see a contra move in the upcoming months but the major trends are very much intact, which is up for gold and silver, and down for the dollar.

"We strongly believe that staying invested during the major rise is the best way to make money, in spite of the ups and downs. The resource sector is poised to rise. Use the downs to add to your positions and plan on being a long-term investor.

"Among our portfolio holdings in the sector are DB Powershares Commodity Index Tracking ETF (ASE: DBC) and iShares GS Natural Resources (NYSE: IGE). Among individual resources companies, we recommend BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP) and Freeport McMoran (NYSE: FCX)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"Powershares DB Agriculture Fund (ASE: DBA) is a new addition to the capital gains portfolio at TheMoneyMan.com Market Newsletter. Here the latest by BizRadio host Daniel Frishberg.

"An area of the market that hasn't been affected by the economic slowdown and isn't correlated with the equities has been the commodity markets. Global demand for commodities has continued to increase.

"This has lead to record highs for most commodities, including soft commodities. We expect this to continue. There are several reasons for this.

"First, emerging markets are developing at a rapid pace and their populations are becoming richer and can now afford to eat better. That leads to higher prices in soybeans, corn, wheat, etc. Second, there are government mandates for producing ethanol which has driven up the price of corn.

"Third, there is simply a shortage of food. In fact, just yesterday, Bloomberg reported that rising food prices in Egypt have caused riots and long bread lines. Food prices are up 20% just in the last year. Last, commodities are priced in dollars. As the dollar has weakened, money has poured into commodities.

"To benefit from these factors, we're purchasing an exchange-traded fund that holds the actual agricultural commodities. Powershares DB Agriculture Fund is an easy way of investing directly in commodities without having to open a futures account.

"Recently commodities did sell off as we had anticipated. However, they have resumed their bull market uptrend. This is despite the Chicago Mercantile Exchange raising margin requirements to buy certain commodities a couple of weeks ago. This illustrates the true global demand for commodities."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"In a new paradigm where risk will become a paranoid obsession with investors, a few TIPS make sense for income," says long-standing advisory industry expert Curtis Hesler.

In his The Professional Timing Service, he highlights the role of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities within a long-term portfolio and reviews two ways for investors to purchases these issues.

"You can buy them in your Treasury Direct account. If you don't have a Treasury Direct account, you can open one at www.treasurydirect.gov. The problem is that so far, you can't open a retirement account - only an individual account. Go to the Treasury Direct Web site and bone up on all the details, especially if you are going to buy them online.

"TIPS work this way. They are U.S. government bonds issued by the Treasury. They are marketable in that you can sell them in the 'after' market. They come in terms of 5, 10, and 20 years. The interest rate on an issue is determined at auction, and they are sold in increments of $1,000.

"The principal is adjusted for changes in the Consumer Price Index. If the CPI increases, the principal increases. If the CPI falls, the principal will be adjusted lower.

"As per the Treasury Direct Web site, 'The relationship between TIPS and the Consumer Price Index affects both the sum you are paid when your TIPS mature and the amount of interest that a TIPS pays you every six months. TIPS pay interest at a fixed rate. Because the rate is applied to the adjusted principal, however, interest payments can vary in amount from one period to the next. If inflation occurs, the interest payment increases. In the event of deflation, the interest payment decreases. At the maturity of a TIPS, you receive the adjusted principal or the original principal, whichever is greater. This provision protects you against deflation.'

"The Web site has further instructions and information on how to go about buying them as well as some tools to calculate changes depending on changes in the CPI, etc.

"The subtle trick, of course, is use of the CPI and the shameful government manipulation of that number. It is not actually a measure of inflation in a true sense, but it is the guide the Treasury uses to value TIPS.

"Nevertheless, TIPS have proven a decent investment, especially considering that the risk is as low as you can find anywhere. Buying TIPS in your Treasury Direct account will give you the safest way to invest fixed income money.

"The term is longer than T-bills, but you are not locked into a set yield as you are with typical longer term bonds. As inflation rises, the CPI must rise as well to some extent, and the TIPS will reflect that in higher yield and augmented principal.

"There is an another way to buy TIPS, but you will assume some minor added risk. You can buy the iShares TIPS ETF (NYSE: TIP). The added risk is that this is an exchange-traded fund complete with all the complex workings that allow ETF's to exist, and they are dependent on the fund managers to do their job.

"Nevertheless, this is not a bad way to go with a little money and I advise purchase at $106.00 or less. The indicated yield is about 5.8% at that price, and they are less risky than most equity investments these days.

"Inflation is a fact, and it will not be abated by the recession. That is because the world is bidding up the price of resources, regardless of our needs.

"The commodity bull is a function of the value of the U.S. dollar, which is eventually going to fall from its current level of 72.50 to at least 60.00 as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index. As the dollar falls, commodities will require more dollars to purchase. That is the gritty truth about inflation, pure and simple."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"The recent decline in gold from above $1,000 is prompting gold bears to say that the great gold bull market has reversed itself," says Martin Hutchinson who states, "Let me say right now: They're wrong."

In his Money Map Reporter, he explains, "Thanks to three key catalysts, we may well see gold at $1,500 an ounce this year, if not higher." Here's his outlook and a trio of ways to play this trend.

"These three catalysts - worldwide monetary policy, global supply-and-demand for gold, and gold's past performance - have already ignited a powerful rally that's virtually certain to carry gold to much higher price points, despite the breather the rally appears to be taking right now.

"Don't be fooled. Every rally needs a catalyst - something that ignites and then fuels the bullish trend. As noted above, gold has three. Let's take a look at each of them:

1. Monetary policy: More than for any other investment, gold's price depends primarily on the world's monetary policy. When monetary policy is loose, as it was in the 1970s, gold prices soar. When it is tight, as in the 1980s, prices decline sharply.

"U.S. monetary policy has been loose since 1995, and particularly since the recession of 2001 and 2002, and other countries have followed the US' lead. Since the subprime crisis exploded onto the scene last September, the Fed has been lowering interest rates.

"Gold has sold off in the past couple of weeks as the market has focused on the U.S. recession, believing that inflation pressures will decline, but that's wrong. Monetary expansion continues and even is intensifying, meaning that inflationary pressures will increase and gold will be the beneficiary.

2. Global Supply and Demand: For most commodities, price rises have an effect on supply and demand; a higher price increases supply and reduces demand, in 'price elasticity.' Gold appears to be an exception. For gold, rising prices appear to increase demand and decrease supply.

"While real global interest rates remain low, gold should retain its current dynamics, with speculative demand increasing as prices rise. Since the pools available for speculative investment are much larger today than they were in 1980, the predicted gold price 'spike' could even move well beyond 1980's peak price of $2,250 an ounce (as measured in today's dollars).

3. Comparison with past peaks: If gold had increased in price since 1997 by the same percentage as world dollar reserves, it would currently be trading at around $1,280 per ounce. The 1980 gold price peak of $875 per ounce intraday is equivalent to more than $2,200 per ounce when inflation is taken into account.

"At some point, with monetary policy as loose as it is currently, inflation will probably accelerate to a point that will force the world's central bank policymakers to take action. When that happens, interest rates will have to be sharply increased. Then - and only then - will the risk-reward potential for gold change enough that wise investors should sell.

"Remember that recessions don't stop gold prices from rising. Gold's first major peak was in the middle of the 1974 recession and its second was well into the first part of the 1980 recession.

"As inflation accelerates, it will probably take a few months for clear inflationary signals to cause the Fed to reverse its policies and attack inflation. And during that period, expect speculative demand for gold to intensify and its price to increase steeply.

"The longer the period before the Fed is forced to increase interest rates, the higher gold will go. We do not believe that target price of $1,500 is too aggressive. It seems very probable that with speculative demand tending to increase, gold could reach that latter level before the end of 2008.

"The bottom line: Until the Fed reverses monetary policy and increases interest rates, gold is one of the best investment bets in an uncertain world.

"The simplest way to play gold is through the StreetTracks Gold ETF (NYSE: GLD), which with $19.8 billion outstanding has ample liquidity, and tracks the gold price directly. Alternatively, you should consider buying gold mining shares.

"Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is a Toronto-based company with mostly North American production, as well as some South America and Africa properties, and some copper and zinc add-ons. It has a $38 billion market capitalization, so there's plenty of liquidity.

"It has a trailing Price/Earnings ratio (on the most recent 12 months) of 34, but a forward P/E (on the next 12 months) of 16. By gold-mining standards, this company has a substantial presence, is reasonably valued and has little political risk.

"And, the company also recently sent some very bullish signals to the market and then this week said it was confident that it could meet its 2008 output target of up to 8.1 million ounces of gold.

"Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) is another U.S.-listed Canada-based company, but this one does its mining in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Honduras and Nicaragua. It has a market cap of $9.7 billion and a trailing P/E of 40, but its forward P/E is only 14.

"Despite its geographic reach, it faces only a medium geopolitical risk. Expect the company to double production to 2.2 million ounces per year by 2012, primarily in Brazil and Argentina."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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This market is tough. Pros and novices alike are having a tough time. Particularly in a down market, a market commentators like to call a ""stock picker's market," I find it illustrative to dig deeper into the holdings of those special professional money managers that have found a way to make a go of it.

Take the CGM Focus (CGMFX) fund. This fund consistently shows up at the top of 1-year, 3-year, and multi-year best performers. CGM Focus has returned on average 37% per year for the past five years. While this is absolutely no guarantee that it will continue to perform like this, fund manager Chuck Heebner seems to have the special sauce -- at least for now.

So, what has been so successful for the fund?

Commodity picks like fertilizer plays Potash (NYSE: POT) and Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) have been big positions and have been big winners. Steel plays like US Steel (NYSE: X) have performed very nicely for CGM as well.

Looking at what worked is somewhat like looking into a rear-view mirror. These gains were in the past. What's Heebner and team buying now?

In March, CGM Focus initiated some new positions. These include deep-water driller Transocean (NYSE: RIG). The fund also bought MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR), which supplies silicon wafers to the burgeoning solar power industry. Oil refiner Hess (NYSE: HES) was also added to the mix.

In times of trouble, it's sometimes useful to turn to those with some clarity.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

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Mark Hulbert at MarketWatch

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"Gloom is thick enough to cut with a knife," says market historian and seasonal timing expert Sy Harding, whose timing system has just triggered a new intermediate-term buy signal on stocks. Here, in his Street Smart Report, the contrarian explains why he believes we are now near a market low.

He also looks at four new ETF index positions he has established in his portfolio. "The slowdown continues. Foreclosures soar. Debt problems are spreading to corporate and credit card loans. The housing collapse continues. The problems are affecting employment.

"And of course the credit crunch continues. Gasoline hit a record high $3.26 a gallon last week. Consumer confidence, and corporate CEO confidence is at multi-year lows regarding the economy.

"The gloom and doom has spread from financial publications to local newspapers and magazines, now featuring stories of layoffs and local plant closings, local small businesses suffering, comparisons to previous bad times, even occasionally to the Great Depression.

"Is the gloom thick enough? Are other conditions in place indicating we are near a market low? Here's why we think so:

"The Fed could not have made it more clear that it intends to come riding to the rescue any time the
stock market or banking system are threatened. It has also demonstrated that it now realizes the severity
of the situation, and is willing to be aggressively innovative in its rescue efforts.

"Other government agencies are going at the problems in housing and mortgages. The new safety nets are impressive efforts.

"Meanwhile, the stock market did not take advantage of the pileup of miserable economic news, to fall off the cliff into a bear market when it had the chance. With the relief provided by the aggressively innovative rescue efforts of the last two weeks, it may not have another opportunity for awhile.

"We believe conditions have been set up for a meaningful intermediate-term rally that may well run into May or June. A typical bottom set-up seems to be in place.

"Consumer sentiment is at a 17-year low, driven by headline news that's about as gloomy as it gets. Investor sentiment is at extreme bearishness, usually associated with market bottoms. Sideline cash is at a very high level. Money-market accounts are holding $3.4 trillion compared to $2.2 trillion near the 2003 market low.

"Putting it all together, we are on a new buy signal on the U.S. market. We will add the following four holdings to our portfolio: DJ Transportation Average (ASE: IYT); the Russell 2000 Index (ASE: IWM); the Nasdaq 100 (ASE: QQQQ); and the S&P 500 (ASE: SPY).

"We have chosen holdings of differing risk and volatility. The Transports, which often lead the rest of the market in both directions, topped out in July last year, and did not rally to a new October high with the rest of the market.

"Then, after declining to a mid-January low with the rest of the market, the Transports have been in positive divergence with the rest of the market, rallying back above the 20-day m.a., rather than falling back to a lower low.

"We chose the Russell 2000 because it is more volatile than the rest of the market, falling more in the corrections, but then rallying more in the recoveries.

"We chose the Nasdaq 100 because it has a large component of tech stocks and we believe the tech stocks have less risk and more upside potential if the market is looking ahead to economic recovery. We chose the S&P 500 to give us a holding in the blue chips.

"We expect the up and down volatility will continue on a day to day basis but the trend should be to the upside with higher lows on the pullbacks and higher highs on the rallies."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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"If you've ever read the great E.M. Forster and his seminal novel A Passage To India, you are probably already acquainted with the riches of India's culture," notes leading fund expert Doug Fabian.

In his Successful Investing, the advisor explains, "Now thanks to two new exchange-traded funds, it's going to get easier than ever to get acquainted with the financial riches of India's equity markets."

"WisdomTree Investments launched what it calls the investment industry's first exchange-traded fund focused on India. The fund, called WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE: EPI), began trading on Feb. 22. Rival ETF provider PowerShares is right behind with its PowerShares India Portfolio (NYSE: PIN).

"WisdomTree India Earnings Fund invests directly in local Indian securities by selecting from a universe of approximately 150 profitable companies that are included in the WisdomTree India Earnings Index.

"The fund uses a fundamentally weighted-indexing strategy, as do other WisdomTree ETFs, to reduce the potential risks of investing in emerging markets through more commonly used market capitalization-weighted indexes, company officials said.

"The company's fundamentally weighted-indexing involves anchoring the initial weights of individual stocks to a measure of fundamental value to avoid the disadvantages of capitalization-weighted indexes.

"In a capitalization-weighted index, the market value of each holding is used to determine the percentage of an individual stock that should be owned in the fund.

"A flaw in this approach is that capitalization-weighted indexes tend to overvalue securities or sectors that dominate the market capitalization indexes at a given time, while under-representing undervalued securities or sectors. The Internet bubble in the late 1990s is an example of how a significant overvaluation problem can affect market-capitalization weighting.

"The PowerShares India Portfolio is designed to replicate the Indian equity markets as a whole through a proprietary index that company officials contend also is superior to a capitalization market-weighted index.

"The PowerShares index consists of a diverse group of 50 Indian stocks selected from a universe of 200 of the largest companies listed on the Mumbai Stock Exchange and 200 of the biggest companies listed on the National Stock Exchange. Thanks to both of these new ETF offerings, a passage to India has never been easier."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

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Well, these investors sitting on cash are not alone. Bloomberg reports this morning that mutual funds have been desperately selling stocks and moving to pretty sizable cash hordes. In a survey conducted by Merrill Lynch and reported by Bloomberg, managers have been feverishly adding to their cash positions and consequently, "cash relative to total assets also rose to a five-year high as managers found fewer stocks to purchase and anticipated redemptions."

This brings up a couple of issues. Let's be clear: mutual fund managers want to manage volatility like all investors. The problem here is that if I hand my money over to a small cap manager because I believe he's pretty proficient in picking stocks, I don't really want him moving into cash. That's my job as portfolio manager of my own investment account. I'm essentially paying him to be in the market -- not move out of it.

This is perhaps the reason why investors who use index funds to achieve diversification and exposure to different elements of the market will ultimately be served better. When the market does turn around (when this occurs is the trillion dollar question), these funds, by their mandate, will need to plow this money back into the markets, buying up stocks at a time that their valuations tend to go up -- actually the opposite of what patient investors should do in the long term.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

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