Analyst Upgrades

• Philip Morris (PM) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Peet's Coffee (PEET) to neutral from sell at Janney Capital.
• Cephalon (CEPH) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• StoneMor Partners (STON) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Tibco (TIBX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.

Gannett (GCI) is off following the release of its third-quarter numbers. With about one hour to go before the regular session ends, shares of the newspaper entity are down nearly 10% to $12.69. Volume is extremely strong.

At least the stock isn't in 52-week-low territory. It would have to be closer to $9.53 for that to be the case. Still, the 52-week high is $19.69, so it's a far distance from that level as well. And as for the one-year chart, you can see that the company has been on a downtrend since April.

Call it Christmas come early: Last week we learned that stocks posted an average gain of about 9% for March retail sales. We also learned consumer spending in the U.S. rose in March by the most in five months, and many economists are predicting continued spending acceleration as the economy adds more jobs and gets back into the groove.

Already we've seen some red hot runs in the retail sector in anticipation of the consumer's return. Several consumer-related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been tearing things up on Wall Street lately -- lapping the broader market at least four times over!

There are lots of great individual retail stocks out there -- and no shortage of reasons to buy Walmart (WMT). But the fact is that blue chip retailers can often lag the broader sector, and small-cap retailers can sometimes be too volatile for many investors.

Newspaper websites seem to be the preferred source of local news for consumers, according to the Newspaper Association of America and comScore (SCOR). Fifty-seven percent of respondents are drawn to local newspaper websites. But take this with a grain of salt: 54% chose online portals and 53% selected local television websites. In terms of what consumers consider the most trusted local news source to be, newspapers have the lead, but the gap is narrowing. Now, only 33% choose the newspaper for this reason, with local television sites pulling in 32%.

"While newspaper Web sites often face dozens of competitors touting their own local offerings in any given market, they have been able to thrive by leveraging trusted brands and strong local content to appeal to consumers and advertisers alike," John Sturm, president and CEO of the NAA, said in a statement.

Newspaper giant Gannett (GCI) owns a controlling influence in CareerBuilder.com. This online job-seeking portal is sure to see big revenue in the coming months as the employment picture brightens up and most human resource departments post their open positions.

A recent Wall Street Journal survey of 56 economists concluded that 1.4 million new jobs will be created in 2010. That means big things for CareerBuilder.com.

There have been no problems selling big-ticket ads for this weekend's broadcast of Super Bowl XLIV. And with good reason -- this has been one of the best years for football on television, with viewership up across the board. The recent NFC and AFC championship games were the NFL's largest combined audience for the two championship games since January 1982.

With all those eyeballs, the real winners could turn out to be the companies with the most aggressive (and the most memorable) advertising spots.

The New York Times (NYT) reports today that newspapers dominate the news creation business.

This is an interesting twist -- instead of touting readers or paid circulation or ads or total revenue, it's talking about production. It's almost as if Ford (F) were to announce: "We make more cars than anyone else." Who the hell cares if they sell any, right? What's important is production, not sales! For the Times, and print media in general, it feels like yet another attempt to justify its existence and "prove" that it is more valuable than the more cost-effective and nimble online outlets.

Despite the media slump that's been running alongside the worldwide recession, CBS (CBS) isn't having any trouble moving ad space for the Super Bowl.

The event is still more than a month from now, but the network reports having only a few commercial slots left for the big game. In fact, 95% of its 62 slots have moved, even with two of the most committed Super Bowl advertisers -- Pepsi (PEP) and General Motors (GRM) -- bowing out of the action. The first half is already sold out completely.

Bundling is beautiful for newspapers. Since April 1, 2009, new rules for counting circulation have turned some newspapers from losing to gaining, even in a market where the print community is getting thrashed. Instead of selling more copies every day, these publications are counting online visits, as long as they are from paying subscribers – for either protected portions of the website or digital replica editions.

The new auditing standards, which affect USA Today, a Gannet (GCI) property, and News Corp's (NWS) Wall Street Journal, among others, often allow newspapers that bundle print and digital editions to count the subscriber twice. According to a report by the Associated Press, the new rule is preventing circulation from looking as bad as it really may be.

We've put three quarters behind us in 2009, and the most recent one was merely another miserable step downward for the beleaguered newspaper industry. Total ad revenue plummeted in the third quarter to $6.4 billion for the print jockeys, a decline of 28%. This info from the Newspaper Association of America drives home the notion that conditions will only worsen for the newspaper industry. So, if you're hoping those shares of New York Times Company (NYT), Gannett (GCI) and Washington Post Company (WPO), holding your breath will leave you little more than dizzy.

Of the total advertising revenue generated in the third quarter of 2009, $5.8 million came from print, the lowest quarterly amount this year. The $623 million in online advertising sold by America's newspapers was also 2009's worst. Both are down substantially from the same quarter in 2008, when the newspapers posted print ad revenue of $8.2 million and online ad revenue of $750 million, according to NAA data. At this time last year, we lamented year-over-year declines approaching 20%. Now, we have the same feelings as ad revenue drops approach 30%.

The Washington Post Company (NYSE: WPO) published data for the third quarter earlier today. Can't say I was mightily impressed by the numbers. Sure, there was a profit increase, but the top line wasn't exciting, and the newspaper division, as you might have expected, experienced a sharp decline in sales.

Net revenues rose 2%. Earnings per share came in at $1.81. That was sharply higher than the $1.08 per share recorded in the comparable period. Yet, I think you have to be careful in terms of reading too much positive spin into the growth rate.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AirTran Holdings Inc. (NYSE: AAI) reported its third consecutive quarterly profit and will increase capacity.
• Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) shares soared after it reported very strong Q3 numbers.
• Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) reported stellar Q4 results, driven by the popularity of Macs and iPhones.
• BlackRock Inc. (NYSE: BLK) Q3 earnings soared, due in part to a tax benefit, and assets managed grew.
• Broadcom Corp. (NASDAQ: BRCM) revenue surged sequentially but note the would be flat going forward.
• Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) beat Q3 earnings expectations and shares rose though revenue slumped.

The folks in the news business are probably growing to hate Mondays. Gannett's (NYSE: GCI) profits are off by more than 50%, and the New York Times announced that it's chopping 100 jobs from the newsroom, along with an unspecified number elsewhere in the newspaper. Like Gannett, the New York Times cites declines in ad revenue as the reason for the decision. The company is hoping that employees will take voluntary buyouts where offered, but it is prepared to conduct a round of layoffs if necessary.

The newspaper, which is the flagship property of the New York Times Company (NYSE: NYT), cut 100 newsroom positions last year, mostly through voluntary buyouts, before a "relatively small" round of layoffs. This year's 100-job cut is approximately 8% of the newsroom, but the paper will still have the largest in the United States. Approximately 1,150 reporters and editors will remain. Already, 100 jobs have been slashed on the business side, leaving it now staffed at 1,850.

Gannett (NYSE: GCI) lost more than half its third-quarter profits year-over-year, as the newspaper industry shows yet another sign of decline. A substantial drop in ad revenue was the primary reason for the plunge.

The newspaper giant was able to stay in the black because of aggressive cost cutting, a move that can work for only so long. For now, it's the most popular option available to the beleaguered industry, as evidenced by a New York Times (NYSE: NYT) announcement that it would slash another 100 positions from the newsroom, and more positions elsewhere.

McNews is being squeezed by two market downturns. So, if you think most newspapers have it bad, realize that it could be much worse.

Gannett's (NYSE: GCI) major national paper, USA Today, is getting ready to report a 17% drop in circulation – the largest it has ever sustained. The popular daily is fighting a battle on two fronts. It has to deal with a media slump and a travel recession. It's hard to pick two tougher industries in this economic climate.