AOL Money & Finance

Chasing Value: AT&T and VZ, high yield plus safety

Nothing is worse than repeating past mistakes. Despite the awful economy, my newest portfolio is doing better than any other since 1999-2000, actually passing a 100% gain recently, although it has dropped back slightly with the market the past few trading days.

Ten years is recent enough for me to remember giving everything back and then some. I'm not doing that again. But what to do? I certainly do not like sitting with a heavy cash position collecting almost nothing. I have recently discussed this issue, see: Serious Money: ETF that's better than cash.

The solution is to find stocks that have low volatility, high yields, and the recurring revenue and strong cash flow to maintain the yield. Long term investors will not be surprised by my search leading me to AT and T (NYSE: T) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), the two largest communications companies in the land.


Continue reading Chasing Value: AT&T and VZ, high yield plus safety

Serious Money: Duke Energy & Southern 'Power-Full'

The stock market has enjoyed a strong rally the past ten weeks, even with a few very minor setbacks. If you were in the market, you enjoyed it too.

It is more likely that the market will become somewhat volatile for the rest of the year rather than continue to rise substantially, barring some outlier. For this reason I have been emphasizing to our readers that they focus their attention on creating a watchlist of stocks they would like to acquire, potentially at great discount for the long haul.

I started this recent series last week with Serious Money: Keep your eyes on UPS and FDX, focusing on large cap stocks certain to make it through these difficult times.

Continue reading Serious Money: Duke Energy & Southern 'Power-Full'

Bond basics: Looking for an alternative to cash? Some fixed-income options

So spooked by the market that you've withdrawn cash from your investments to stuff beneath your mattress? Or do you simply crumple every mutual fund statement without opening?

Yesterday as I sipped my coffee, Payson Swaffield, vice president and chief income investment officer of Eaton Vance of Eaton Vance (NYSE: EV) in Boston, shared with me by phone some current alternatives in fixed-income investments. There are two worlds of fixed-income investments (bonds, essentially), according to Swaffield. One is very low risk and low return. The other is slightly higher risk but has equity-like return possibilities.

First some definitions: A fixed-income instrument is an investment in a bond or another debt security issued by a government or government agency, such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, a municipality, or a private enterprise. Fixed-income investments have traditionally provided lower volatility than equity investments as well as risk diversification, Swaffield says.

Continue reading Bond basics: Looking for an alternative to cash? Some fixed-income options

No. 12: Odds are rich people know the odds

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See them all.

To be a successful investor, you need to know the odds.

Investing is far more important than gambling. Yet most gamblers understand the odds before they place a bet. Few investors understand the odds of achieving a return on their investments.

The odds of shooting snake eyes at a craps table are one in thirty-six.

The odds of winning on one number at a roulette table are one in thirty-eight.

Most investors buy actively managed funds, where the fund manager attempts to beat a given benchmark. What are the odds she will be able to do so?

They are one in thirty-six. Sound familiar?

Almost every broker and many advisors will tell you they can pick stocks that will be winners. What are the odds they can deliver?

Continue reading No. 12: Odds are rich people know the odds

No. 11: Rich people know it's not what you make, it's what you keep that matters

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See more.

Most investors don't realize that the biggest factor in reducing their returns are the costs associated with their investments.

These costs include commissions, loads, taxes, advisory fees, market-makers, transfer agents and related costs. When you add them up, they can be very significant, reducing overall returns by as much as 40%!

Actively managed mutual funds (funds that try to outperform a given benchmark) have high turnovers of their portfolios. High turnover generates taxable transactions. The tax hit is carried by the investors in the fund, even when they don't sell their shares.

Here is one example:

The actively managed Fidelity Contrafund had a turnover of 60% in 2006. The passive Vanguard 500 Index Fund had a turnover of 7% during the same year.

Continue reading No. 11: Rich people know it's not what you make, it's what you keep that matters

No. 10: Rich people don't rely on false prophets

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See more.

There seems to be no end of brokers, advisors, and talking heads on television who give advice to guileless investors. They discuss where the markets are headed, what stocks to buy "now," what stocks to sell, and which fund managers are "hot."

They endlessly analyze economic data and interpret it for those of us too unschooled to understand it. They tell us how it affects the markets, and what steps we can take to profit from this knowledge and from their insights.

Often they provide this information in breathless reports delivered from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, which serves to heighten the urgency and importance of their message.

For the most part, they are false prophets. The information they impart is irrelevant to a sound investment strategy. In fact, listening to it and relying on it is harmful to your financial well-being.

Here are some examples:

Continue reading No. 10: Rich people don't rely on false prophets

No. 9: Really rich people understand that net worth is not self-worth

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See more.

It always seemed to me that most people who said that money can't buy happiness didn't have much money.

It would be more accurate to say that if your unhappiness has nothing to do with money, wealth won't make you happy.

The harsh reality is that most of us need a certain amount of money to pay the bills and hopefully provide for retirement with dignity.

Investors who follow the basic lessons that rich people know will be taking a positive step in the direction of responsible, intelligent investing that will help them maximize their returns.

Really rich people understand that money can't buy health. It also can't buy meaningful relationships with family or friends.

Continue reading No. 9: Really rich people understand that net worth is not self-worth

No. 8: Rich people know the difference between an appreciating and a depreciating asset

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See more.

Rich people own both appreciating and depreciating assets. They know the difference.

Depreciating assets decline in value.

Appreciating assets increase in value.

It is the appreciating assets that permit rich people to purchase the depreciating assets, and not the other way around.

Rich people get rich by buying assets that increase in value slowly over time. They build up businesses. The buy and hold real estate.

They invest in the stock market differently than most individual investors. They determine their asset allocation and buy and hold a globally diversified portfolio of low-cost stock and bond index funds.

Continue reading No. 8: Rich people know the difference between an appreciating and a depreciating asset

No. 7: Rich people don't bet the farm on one asset class or stock

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See more.

Is this a good time to buy commodities?

What about emerging markets?

Don't value stocks outperform the markets?

Six months ago, the investment du jour was oil. Clearly, it had no where to go but up. Right?

China and India were increasing consumption at a rapid rate and oil was in short supply. Many analysts were projecting the date when oil supplies would run out altogether.

Six months later, oil tanked.

Did you think that gold was a good hedge against a financial meltdown? If so, your views were shared by many "experts."

Gold reached a record high price of $850 in January 1980. Its current price is $747. What happened?

Continue reading No. 7: Rich people don't bet the farm on one asset class or stock

No. 6: Rich people invest in themselves

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See the first five secrets.

I give a lot of talks to groups of investors. I like to ask this question:

How many of you made most of your money investing in the stock market?

Very few hands go up.

I get the same result when I ask: How many of you know someone who made most of his or her money investing in the stock market?

Let's drop to the bottom line:

Rich people invest in themselves.

Poor people invest in "things" that give them instant gratification, like plasma screen TVs and flashy cars.

I don't mean to be glib. Rich people can afford education and great health care. Poor people often can't. A great education and good health positions rich people to get richer.

Continue reading No. 6: Rich people invest in themselves

No. 5: Rich people don't invest in complex instruments they don't understand

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See them all.

The headline needs a caveat: some rich people did invest in complex instruments they didn't understand.

They are no longer rich.

Hedge funds are a perfect example.

Few people really understand them. They are not regulated. It is difficult to figure out what they are investing in. It is even more difficult to determine if they have deviated from their original investment strategy.

They promise big returns without additional risk.

Many investors and even pension funds fell for the pitch.

Few took the time to look at the data.

One study of 1,917 funds found that only 17.7% beat their benchmark.

Hedge funds are imploding at an alarming rate. One site that tracks hedge fund failures reports that, since mid-2007, 95 funds managed by 58 firms have blown up.

Continue reading No. 5: Rich people don't invest in complex instruments they don't understand

No. 4: Rich people don't try to outstmart millions of other people looking at the same data

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See them all.

All information about listed companies is public. It is widely and instantly disseminated. This information is studied by millions of investors, who establish the price of a given stock based on this data.

Many of those looking at this data are professional analysts. They are well trained in finance and have access to powerful computer programs that assist them in crunching the numbers.

There is one piece of information they don't know: tomorrow's news.

Future events move stock prices. The market has already discounted for current news.

Because no one knows tomorrow's news, many "sure bets" turn out to be losers. Fannie Mae, Lehman, and Bear Stearns are recent examples. Past failures of top-rated stocks include Worldcom, Enron, Bethlehem Steel and Polaroid. In fact, of the 500 companies that made up the S&P 500 in 1957, only 74 of them were in the index in 1997.

Here is the real kicker: Only twelve of those companies outperformed the S&P 500 index in the period from 1957-1998.

Continue reading No. 4: Rich people don't try to outstmart millions of other people looking at the same data

No. 3: Rich people know the foundation for all returns is risk

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See them all.

What if you went to Las Vegas, sat down at your favorite slot machine, and very time you dropped in $1, you got back $2? I'll bet you would never leave!

This is the holy grail. Great returns without any risk.

It doesn't work that way in Las Vegas. Why do you think investing is any different?

The foundation of returns is risk. The higher the risk, the greater the potential for returns -- or for losses.

You can achieve returns without risk. However, to do so you need to invest in what are known as "risk-free" investments. These include FDIC-insured Certificates of Deposits and Treasury Bills.

The problem with "risk-free" investments is that they generate relatively low returns. The historical returns of Treasury Bills is 3.7%. After inflation and taxes, there is little profit remaining.

Most people want higher returns than they can get with "risk-free" investments. To do so, you need to invest in the domestic or foreign stock markets (preferably both) and in bonds, which can vary in terms of safety.

Continue reading No. 3: Rich people know the foundation for all returns is risk

No. 2: Rich people know 'if it bleeds, it leads'

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See them all.

Bad news sells. Good news is boring.

Inside media types will tell you that they are guided by this basic rule: If it bleeds, it leads.

The financial media is no exception.

There is a steady drumbeat of news about a "deep recession" or even another "great depression." How many times in recent months have you read about the "market crash" or the "financial meltdown," all meant to convince you that it really is different this time?

Is it really?

In September 1998, Newsweek carried a major story about an "unprecedented" worldwide "economic convulsion."

Fortune predicted "a fundamental change in the world's economic condition" in September 1998. Time Magazine, in June 1970, opined that we were in "the worst economic conditions since the Depression."

A "panic on Wall Street" was headlined by the Philadelphia Inquirer in October 1987.

The list is endless.

Continue reading No. 2: Rich people know 'if it bleeds, it leads'

No. 1: Rich people know the difference between luck and skill

This post is part of a series where personal finance expert Dan Solin looks at money secrets that help the rich stay rich. See them all.

Everyone understands that coin flipping is random. You can flip five heads or tails in a row and no one would believe that you are an "expert" coin flipper.

What about fund managers who have five years of stellar performance? You see the ads every Sunday hyping their superior returns.

A closer look at the data indicates that these managers are no more skilled than the lucky coin flipper.

One study looked at the performance of the top 100 fund managers over an eleven year period. Only 14% of them were able to repeat their performance in the following year.

There are many studies demonstrating that there is no reliable way to predict the performance of fund managers. This is why you always see the disclaimer that "past performance is no guarantee of future results" in advertisements for mutual funds. It's put in small type so that you won't pay much attention to it.

Here are a couple of examples (there are hundreds more):

Continue reading No. 1: Rich people know the difference between luck and skill

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 04, 2009: 05:48 AM

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