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Option Update: Goldcorp volatility flat; shares near record on $924 Gold

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), a gold producer with 100% of its production unhedged, closed at $44.34.

Gold is recently up 1.07% to $924.90 according to Bloomberg. GG is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 31.

GG overall option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 39; 26-week average is 34

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Goldcorp (GG) rises into shareholders' meeting

GG logoGoldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) shares are trading higher as gold futures are advancing today. GG is also holding its annual shareholders' meeting today at 2 pm, which will probably move the stock. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GG.

After hitting a one-year low of $21.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.30 in March. GG opened this morning at $41.75. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.67 and a high of $42.72. As of 12:20, GG is trading at $42.66, up $1.40 (3.4%). The chart for GG looks bearish but improving slightly.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $32.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just nine weeks as long as GG is above $32.50 at July expiration. Goldcorp would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Goldcorp (GG) rises into shareholders' meeting

Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

Closing Bell: Despite $120 oil, stocks post gains

Can you believe oil put in another monster day with oil up $1.91 at $121.88 today. This morning started out looking just like March with financials way down, and commodities up. That abated toward the end of the day. An analyst prediction of $150 to $200 oil helped propel oil today. Below are today's unofficial closing prices:
  • DJIA 13,025.31 +55.77 +0.43%
  • S&P 500 1,418.42 +10.93 +0.78%
  • NASDAQ 2,483.31 +19.19 +0.78%
  • 10YR-Bond 3.893% (+0.048)
  • TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS.
The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) announced today $1.3 billion has been raised to invest in high quality loan assets by closing three CLOs. Blackstone pointed out that the CLOs are not an attempt to remove risky assets off balance sheets. The newly acquired GSO Capital Partners now manages 26 CLOs for a total of $14 billion. Shares actually fell 0.75% by the end of the day to $19.57.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Despite $120 oil, stocks post gains

Option Update: Goldcorp volatility Flat into EPS as Gold trades $858

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Canada's third largest producer of gold, scheduled to report EPS on May 5:


GG was recently up 83 cents to $35.93. Gold was recently trading up 0.92% to $858.70, according to Bloomberg. GG May option implied volatility of 49 was near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Aden sisters: 'Don't be shaken out of gold'

When gold recently moved above $1,000 the Aden Forecast presciently noted that the metals were overbought and forecast a "well deserved breather" for the precious metals.

Now, with the setback in metals prices, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden explain, "We can't stress enough that you should stay invested in the major uptrend, which still has years to run. Don't get left behind or shaken out." Here is their outlook on metals and some favorite mining stocks.

"Are commodities the new bubble? Have they replaced the real estate bubble, which replaced the
tech stock bubble, as investors move from one bubble to another? It sure looks like it.

"But the big difference is that this metals and commodities bubble has a lot further to go. Why? Basically, the perfect storm has been gathering and it's going to fuel a mega rise that will likely last for years to come.

"Most important is China and other growing nations, which are keeping demand and prices super strong. China's growth has been astounding at over 9% each year for more than 25 years. During that time, China has lifted 300 million people out of poverty and it's quadrupled the average income.

Continue reading Aden sisters: 'Don't be shaken out of gold'

Gold stocks: Technical targets

Technician Yola Edwards had forecast a rise in gold to $1032; it rose to $1034, before correcting. In her Edwards Charts she offers a technical outlook for gold, Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

"Gold exceeded my $1032.50 level by posting an intraday high just shy of $1034 but it turned on a dime and plunged over a US$100. The daily chart now indicates prices are oversold according to the MACD and RSI as the price bounces off support at the lower Bollinger band.

"However, a negative bias remains. A corrective wave four will retrace to the top of wave 1 at about US$865 if the decline holds true to theory, which should be viewed as a buying opportunity as the fifth advancing wave should see gold rally to about $1145 over the next four months.

"Goldcorp has traced out a 'U' shaped bottom over the past two years and is now in a consolidation phase. Since pulling back from its high two weeks ago the month ended with a type of spinning top which halted the previous decline.

Continue reading Gold stocks: Technical targets

Option Update: Goldcorp volatility flat as gold trades below $900

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Canada's third largest producer of gold, closed at $38.75 Monday.

Gold is recently trading down 2.59% to $897.60 according to Bloomberg.

GG overall option implied volatility of 49 is near its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Pre-market movers: GS, DAL, LEH

Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is up 5% on better-than-expected earnings.

Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is up over 12% on a belief that the brokerage may not be in as much trouble as was rumored.

Northwest Air (NYSE: NWA) is off on concerns that its merger with Delta (NYSE: DAL) is dead.

Nuvelo (NASDAQ: NUVO) is down over 40% on news it will fire 40% of its employess.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247WallSt.com.

Stocks that benefit from higher gold prices

Gold prices hit the $1,000 target for the first time on Thursday as fears about a possible recession increased and the U.S. dollar continued to weaken. The dollar hit yesterday new lows against the euro and sank to 13-year lows against the yen, while crude oil prices busted through the $110 barrier. Still, there have been a handful of notable names that have benefited from the news to trade up to new highs.

Gold has been strong lately, and gold stocks have been following gold's lead. It seems like gold is following its upside trend today as well, as the current surging oil futures made gold prices relatively cheaper for foreign investors who use other currencies.

However, some analysts believe this is far from being over and expect even higher values for the price of gold. Clément Gignac, National Bank Financial 's chief economist and chief strategist, believes that gold prices will reach $1,500 an ounce within the next 12 to 18 months. Nick Barisheff, portfolio manager of the Millennium Bullion Fund, shares the same belief and anticipates that gold could even touch the $2,000 to $3,000 mark in the "next two to three years."

Continue reading Stocks that benefit from higher gold prices

Goldcorp (GG) soars on $1,000 gold

GG logoGoldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) shares are rising today after gold futures rose to $1000 for the first time ever. Gold prices have received support from a weaker dollar, which has recently hit lows against multiple currencies. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GG.

After hitting a one-year low of $21.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year high today. GG opened this morning at $43.94. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.94 and a high of $44.95. As of 12:20, GG is trading at $44.63, up $1.63 (3.8%). The chart for GG looks bullish and steady.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just four months as long as GG is above $30 at July expiration. Goldcorp would have to fall by more than 32% before we would start to lose money.

GG hasn't been below $30 since September and has shown support around $35 recently. This trade could be risky if the price of gold drops, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 50- and 200-day moving averages, which are around $38 and $31 respectively.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GG.

Can you ignore gold anymore?

Another day, another story on commodities hitting new highs. Yep, oil has done it again today, and so has that most famous metal, gold.

According to a Marketwatch piece, gold has reached a record delivery price of $992 for April delivery (as of this writing). Pretty darn amazing. Of course, the more amazing -- or, perhaps, the more sad -- thing is that I've been ignoring the gold bull run. And I don't feel good about it whatsoever. The problem is, though, that commodity prices can be quite risky, especially for individual investors. Putting money to work in gold at this point could definitely be a gamble, especially as there are other bets out there that might be more worthy in this environment (to me, at least); for example, I am bullish on certain mortgage real estate investment trusts because of the trend of the Fed; I currently own MFA (NYSE: MFA), for example. (Yes, I did end up finding an acceptable entry point.)

Looking at the one-year chart of GLD (NYSE: GLD), the tracking stock for gold value, it is nearly implausible to deny that gold is in a definitive uptrend. And gold-related stocks such as Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) are following the commodity's movement. The old adage about trends being friends rings pretty true here. But, I just don't know if I want to do any inflation-hedging right now, and I don't know if I want to chase gold at these levels. At the very least, I would wait for a pullback to the 50-day moving average before even considering allocating some of the glittery asset to my portfolio. If you are an individual investor and you do decide that you can't take it anymore, that you want in on this ride, certainly make sure that you have enough cash on hand after your first purchase to improve your cost basis if it becomes necessary.

The Adens: Best bets in gold & silver

"Will there be a recession or not?" asks Mary Anne and Pamela Aden. In The Aden Forecast they note, "The scales are now tipping to inflation," which they view as bullish for gold and silver.

"Sure, the economy will probably slow down in the months ahead and stagflation is also a likelihood. That is, slower economic growth combined with inflation.

"The Fed and the world's largest central banks are working together in a massive, historical concerted intervention to provide all the money and liquidity that's globally needed to keep things rolling along. Money supply, for instance, is soaring at a 16% growth rate, the most in 47 years.

"The latest producer price figure strongly supported our view since it was the highest in 34 years, showing inflation running at a 38% annualized rate. Since producer prices lead consumer prices, this is a huge red flag that big inflation is coming.

"The new record high in the gold price is telling us the same thing, and so are the record highs in oil and the commodity markets. In other words, if a serious recession were coming, gold and commodities would not be soaring.

"Gold is an inflation barometer and the action in this market alone is signaling that inflation will very likely dominate the economic scene in 2008. Inflation is bad for bond prices. It usually means higher interest rates and this time is not an exception.

Continue reading The Adens: Best bets in gold & silver

Options update: Gold stocks volatility & price up as Gold trades at $878

Randgold Resources(NASDAQ:GOLD) is recently up $1.4 8 to $38.71. GOLD is engaged in gold mining and exploration in Africa. Gold is recently up 1.87% to $878.10 according to Bloomberg. GOLD over all option implied volatility of 50 is above its 26-week average of 45 according to Track Data suggesting larger risk.

Goldcorp(NYSE:GG), Canada's third largest producer of gold, is recently up $1.23 to $38.43. GG over all option implied volatility of 48 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Gold stocks set new highs as gold continues to climb

As Michael Fowlkes discussed yesterday, gold prices have been rising strongly over the past few days as fears about a possible recession increased and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Gold for February delivery rose in the previous session $9.10 to end at $869.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There have been a handful of notable names that have benefited from these news to trade up to new highs.

Gold has been strong lately, and gold stocks have been following gold's lead. Gold had a very strong day yesterday, with prices breaking through a new record for the second straight day. Josh Bridges, analyst at JP Morgan, anticipates the new year would be a strong one for gold as "it must be remembered that gold is typically a late-stage performer."

Continue reading Gold stocks set new highs as gold continues to climb

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DJIA+67.4211,355.96
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S&P 500+4.101,267.00

Last updated: July 07, 2008: 11:11 AM

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