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Thanksgiving pattern: A seasonal low for gold?

"Gold is now looking stronger; it is time that investors have gold in their portfolios," says Curtis Hesler. In the The Professional Timing Service, he looks at gold's seasonal patterns.

"I think they will rush to commodity-based assets because of the serious underinvestment phase the commodity sector is involved in now. This will lead to shortages and very high prices down the road in all commodities.

"Once the dollar begins to roll over, gold will be an instant benefactor. It is already looking stronger in my technical work, and it is time that investors should have gold in their portfolios. I still recommend that you put new money into the major gold miners only.

"We are approaching an interesting seasonal period for gold. Years ago, the Stock Trader's Almanac used to specify a seasonal trade in gold.

"Their study showed that if you bought ASA Ltd. (NYSE: ASA) at its low in November and sold it at its high in the first quarter of the next year, you would have averaged a gain of 87.8%.

Continue reading Thanksgiving pattern: A seasonal low for gold?

Hedge Inflation with two gold ETF ideas: GDX and GLD

It seems that everywhere you turn you hear something about the price of gold, from analysts to commercials encouraging you to sell your old jewelry for big bucks. If you're tempted, how about a bit safer investment in the commodity? Let your money work for you -- invest in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that hold shares in several different gold producers, and you can ride the wave of the industry.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) is a perfect opportunity to ride this wave with as the fund's goal is to mimic the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index, before fees and expenses. This is a nondiversified fund that is comprised of several well known companies whose main operations involve gold and silver mining.

There are two reasons to buy GDX instead of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) or the iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) both of which are pure gold ETFs (you own a share of gold sitting in a safe). First, the ratio between gold and the value of the gold held by miners has been relatively stable for 30 years. But today, the gold miners are selling at 33% of that historical ratio, so bulls say it's better to buy the miners, not the metal. Second, the biggest expense of a mining company is energy. Oil today hit $54 per barrel, down 63% from a peak of $147. This adds to the profits of the Gold Miners.

Continue reading Hedge Inflation with two gold ETF ideas: GDX and GLD

Deflation or hyper-inflation? Gold or bonds?

"There's no question these are dangerous times and the financial world is in uncharted waters," caution resource experts Mary Anne and Pamela Aden.

In The Aden Forecast, the sisters offer an exceptional in-depth discussion on inflationary vs. deflationary foreces, their outlook for precious metals, and their top gold and silver positions for long-term investors.

"The global financial system is on very thin ice, teetering on collapse. Global central banks clearly are literally pulling out all the stops to revive lending and the world economy.

"Will these efforts work? Will they be enough? Those are the most important unanswered questions of the day and only time will tell, but we should know much more in the critical month or so ahead. Why?

"The Fed is spending money at an astronomical rate. It's creating this money out of thin air by monetizing bad debts and whatever else it has to. Remember, this is on top of all the other ongoing government expenses and it's extremely inflationary.

"Normally, there is a lag of about a year or so between money creation and inflation but eventually, what's recently happened will result in massive inflation, a much lower U.S. dollar and a soaring gold price.

"The bottom line is this, if the banks start to lend again, then the economy will be on the road to recovery and inflation. But we know the banks are scared and they're being extremely cautious, for good reason.

Continue reading Deflation or hyper-inflation? Gold or bonds?

GoldCorp (GG): 'Our favorite major'

"People want to own more gold when there's a perception of growing global economic and political turmoil," explain resource experts Roger Conrad and Yiannis Mostrous.

In their Vital Resource Investor, the advisor offer their long-term bullish assessment for gold as well their favorite gold mining stock: "Goldcorp (NYSE: GG).

"Every commodity bull market eventually ends when consumers permanently reduce demand with conservation and switch to alternatives, and the producers ultimately over-expand. This, however, only happens over a period of many years.

"To be sure, we've seen demand in the US drop for many vital resources, from copper to energy, as the economy has slowed. Demand from developing nations, however, remains entrenched by necessity, as these suddenly more affluent nations struggle to upgrade their vital infrastructure.

"And although we may see Chinese economic growth slow from its current off-the-chart 10% rate, that country will still face critical needs to build out its cities to meet the millions of new migrants that come every year. And that's a huge call on raw materials.

Continue reading GoldCorp (GG): 'Our favorite major'

Before the bell: Stocks may rebound; HPQ, FRE, EBAY, AAPL, AUY, F

U.S. stock futures were higher Wednesday morning, indicating markets could start on a positive note after two days of declines. Good results from Hewlett-Packard helped lift sentiment, overshadowing financial sector concerns, despite new worries over Fannie and Freddie. Oil remained steady ahead of inventory report later today.

Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) shares are rising over 3% in premarket trading after the computer maker reported a 14% rise in fiscal third-quarter earnings and issues current-quarter earnings guidance that exceeded analyst estimates. Tech shares could get a boost from H-P.

Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) remain in focus due to concerns that a government bailout of the two firms is inevitable and would mean wiping out investors. Freddie Mac on Tuesday was forced to pay its steepest borrowing premium in 10 years, which is raising fresh concerns about its ability to withstand the housing and credit crisis without government help.

eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) is cutting fixed-price seller listing fees. eBay will now charge 35 cents to list any number of the same types of fixed-price items. This is a dramatic change from charging fees based on item price.

Continue reading Before the bell: Stocks may rebound; HPQ, FRE, EBAY, AAPL, AUY, F

Gold cycle: Seasonal low is due

When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.

In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."

He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.

"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.

"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.

"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Goldcorp (GG): Go for the gold

"The number one reason I like gold is because of inflation -- now a big problem in the emerging markets and the major economies," says resource expert Eric Roseman.

In his industry-leading Commodity Trend Alert, he says, "One of my favorite companies in the world is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)." Here, he looks at this gold mining firm.

"Inflation sits at a nine-and-a-half-year high in Asia at 7.5%, a 15-year high in the Euro-zone at 3.7% and in the United States it's at 4.2% -- if you believe government data in the first place. I don't. I say inflation is running closer to 10% in 2008, not 4.2%.

"The cost of living, mainly in food and energy, is now totally out of control and destroying business margins and eroding the purchasing power of consumers, especially in the emerging markets where food and energy consumption devours more than 65% of wages.

"It seems very obvious to me that Asian governments have now lost control of inflation. The same applies to the Gulf countries which peg their currencies to the dollar. And in Europe, the European Central Bank is freaking out because of high inflation.

Continue reading Goldcorp (GG): Go for the gold

With U.S. stocks plunging, here are some Canadian stock picks

Once again it's ugly out there today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped below 11,000 for the first time in two years, plunging over 2%. The rest of the U.S. stocks are not far behind with both the Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 down over 2% as well. It's depressing. But you don't have to look far to see a nicer picture, you just have to look up: up north that is.

The Toronto Stock Exchange has fared much better in what has officially become a U.S. bear market. Over the past year, while the S&P 500 sank over 19%, the S&P/TSX Composite index dropped only 3.4%. Year-to-date, while the S&P 500 declined over 16%, the TSX was barely down 1%. And if you stay away from financials on the TSX, you'd fare even better.

How so, you ask, doesn't the Canadian economy closely follows the U.S.'s? It's mostly true as the U.S. is Canada's biggest trading partner and the Canadian economy is intertwined with that of the U.S. For example, some of the layoffs at GM and Ford plants have occurred in Ontario plants, and Canada's unemployment rate edged up to 6.2% in June due to a drop in full-time jobs.

The thing is, though, that the TSX is heavily weighted in mining and oil & gas companies, sectors that have fared better than techs and financials the past year or so. Getting exposure to the Canadian market is very easy since many stocks also trade on U.S. exchanges, the famous of all may be Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM). But there are others, and some of them, the U.S. investor may want to consider.

Continue reading With U.S. stocks plunging, here are some Canadian stock picks

Option Update: Goldcorp volatility flat; shares near record on $924 Gold

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), a gold producer with 100% of its production unhedged, closed at $44.34.

Gold is recently up 1.07% to $924.90 according to Bloomberg. GG is scheduled to report Q2 EPS on July 31.

GG overall option implied volatility of 46 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Financial Select Sector-XLF overall volatility at 39; 26-week average is 34

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Goldcorp (GG) rises into shareholders' meeting

GG logoGoldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) shares are trading higher as gold futures are advancing today. GG is also holding its annual shareholders' meeting today at 2 pm, which will probably move the stock. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GG.

After hitting a one-year low of $21.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year low of $46.30 in March. GG opened this morning at $41.75. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.67 and a high of $42.72. As of 12:20, GG is trading at $42.66, up $1.40 (3.4%). The chart for GG looks bearish but improving slightly.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $32.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just nine weeks as long as GG is above $32.50 at July expiration. Goldcorp would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Goldcorp (GG) rises into shareholders' meeting

Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Anadarko, Disney, Coors, Unilever, Activision, Marvel and others

Closing Bell: Despite $120 oil, stocks post gains

Can you believe oil put in another monster day with oil up $1.91 at $121.88 today. This morning started out looking just like March with financials way down, and commodities up. That abated toward the end of the day. An analyst prediction of $150 to $200 oil helped propel oil today. Below are today's unofficial closing prices:
  • DJIA 13,025.31 +55.77 +0.43%
  • S&P 500 1,418.42 +10.93 +0.78%
  • NASDAQ 2,483.31 +19.19 +0.78%
  • 10YR-Bond 3.893% (+0.048)
  • TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS.
The Blackstone Group L.P. (NYSE: BX) announced today $1.3 billion has been raised to invest in high quality loan assets by closing three CLOs. Blackstone pointed out that the CLOs are not an attempt to remove risky assets off balance sheets. The newly acquired GSO Capital Partners now manages 26 CLOs for a total of $14 billion. Shares actually fell 0.75% by the end of the day to $19.57.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Despite $120 oil, stocks post gains

Option Update: Goldcorp volatility Flat into EPS as Gold trades $858

Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), Canada's third largest producer of gold, scheduled to report EPS on May 5:


GG was recently up 83 cents to $35.93. Gold was recently trading up 0.92% to $858.70, according to Bloomberg. GG May option implied volatility of 49 was near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Aden sisters: 'Don't be shaken out of gold'

When gold recently moved above $1,000 the Aden Forecast presciently noted that the metals were overbought and forecast a "well deserved breather" for the precious metals.

Now, with the setback in metals prices, Mary Anne and Pamela Aden explain, "We can't stress enough that you should stay invested in the major uptrend, which still has years to run. Don't get left behind or shaken out." Here is their outlook on metals and some favorite mining stocks.

"Are commodities the new bubble? Have they replaced the real estate bubble, which replaced the
tech stock bubble, as investors move from one bubble to another? It sure looks like it.

"But the big difference is that this metals and commodities bubble has a lot further to go. Why? Basically, the perfect storm has been gathering and it's going to fuel a mega rise that will likely last for years to come.

"Most important is China and other growing nations, which are keeping demand and prices super strong. China's growth has been astounding at over 9% each year for more than 25 years. During that time, China has lifted 300 million people out of poverty and it's quadrupled the average income.

Continue reading Aden sisters: 'Don't be shaken out of gold'

Gold stocks: Technical targets

Technician Yola Edwards had forecast a rise in gold to $1032; it rose to $1034, before correcting. In her Edwards Charts she offers a technical outlook for gold, Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

"Gold exceeded my $1032.50 level by posting an intraday high just shy of $1034 but it turned on a dime and plunged over a US$100. The daily chart now indicates prices are oversold according to the MACD and RSI as the price bounces off support at the lower Bollinger band.

"However, a negative bias remains. A corrective wave four will retrace to the top of wave 1 at about US$865 if the decline holds true to theory, which should be viewed as a buying opportunity as the fifth advancing wave should see gold rally to about $1145 over the next four months.

"Goldcorp has traced out a 'U' shaped bottom over the past two years and is now in a consolidation phase. Since pulling back from its high two weeks ago the month ended with a type of spinning top which halted the previous decline.

Continue reading Gold stocks: Technical targets

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+33.6012,529.75
NASDAQ-10.742,839.38
S&P 500+1.821,320.68

Last updated: May 24, 2012: 09:21 PM

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