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Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9

Bank of America (BAC) logoHere are the next four of my 2011 picks. I am behind schedule, after publishing the first 5 earlier in the week (see: Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11). This year instead of starting completely anew, I am adjusting my 2010 picks. There is no sense in abandoning good ideas just because the calendar turned a page.

You will actually find support of running themes I have been writing about over the past few months. One of these is the idea of making a contrarian investment in a basket of stocks that have been both scalded and scolded in the headlines. Six stocks were included in such a group that I called the "toxic stocks" (see: Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #3 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG).

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9

Top Picks 2011: Equity Residential (EQR)

This post is one in a series in which more than 60 newsletter advisors share their Top Stock Picks for 2011. This special report is courtesy of TheStockAdvisors.com.

"With fewer people tapping the housing market, apartments are filling up fast. That's one big reason I like Equity Residential (EQR) for 2011," says income specialist Amy Calisti.

The editor of The Daily Paycheck explains, "Equity Residential is an S&P 500 company and the largest real estate investment trust (REIT) of its kind.

Continue reading Top Picks 2011: Equity Residential (EQR)

Top Picks 2011: Owens Corning (OC)

Owens Corning (OC) logoThis post is one in a series in which more than 60 newsletter advisors share their Top Stock Picks for 2011. This special report is courtesy of TheStockAdvisors.com.

"Founded in 1938, Owens Corning (OC) -- my top pick for 2011, is a leading manufacturer of building products, including insulation, roofing products, and composite materials," says George Putnam.

The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "The stock looks quite cheap, particularly for a company with such a strong business franchise in a temporarily depressed sector.

Continue reading Top Picks 2011: Owens Corning (OC)

Bleak Prospects for Further Economic Growth

In projecting U.S. GDP growth at about a 2% rate for the remainder of this year and in 2011, I have noted that the two propellants of growth so far in this economic recovery -- the inventory revival and fiscal stimuli -- are largely exhausted.

But are there other sectors of the economy that might serve as the backbone of any meaningful economic recovery? I don't see any, especially with U.S. consumers continuing their saving spree, repaying debts and remaining hesitant to spend like they did during the boom times of earlier years.

Continue reading Bleak Prospects for Further Economic Growth

Owens Corning: A Construction Turnaround

"Founded in 1938, Owens Corning (OC) is a leading manufacturer of building products, including insulation, roofing products, and composite materials; the stock looks quite cheap, particularly for a company with such a strong business franchise in a temporarily depressed sector," says George Putnam.

The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "From the early 1950s through the early 1970s some of the company's insulation products contained asbestos.

"This led to massive legal liabilities in the 1990s, which forced the company to file for bankruptcy in October 2000. Like most of the asbestos-related cases, Owens Corning's Chapter 11 proceedings were protracted and contentious.

Continue reading Owens Corning: A Construction Turnaround

Comfort Zone Investing: Better News Is Blowin' in the Wind

wind farm - comfort zone investing - winds of change comingSome positive signs are blowin' in the wind. Maybe they're enough to underpin a real recovery. Maybe not. But they are definitely positive, and together, may be the foundation of a stock rally with some strength. Here are some of them.

Dividends: General Electric (GE), Weyerhaeuser (WY) and many other companies are raising theirs. GE's quarterly dividend went from 10 cents a share early this year to 12 cents to 14 cents. If you own it by December 27, you'll get it on January 25. GE is almost a surrogate for the economy as a whole since it has so many divisions, offering many products and services. When GE raises its dividend it means the board and management see better times ahead. Companies hate to raise or initiate dividends only to rescind them a few months or even a year later. They know some investors buy the stock for income, and if that shrinks, those investors sell, push the price down and move to another stock. Watch for more companies to raise their payouts (especially banks). It's a sure sign they see better earnings ahead.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Better News Is Blowin' in the Wind

Outperforming Lennar Shrugs Off Downgrade

Lennar Corp. (LEN) just can't seem to win much respect on Wall Street. Despite well-known fundamental issues within the housing sector, LEN has tallied a year-to-date advance of roughly 35% -- easily topping the 11.4% gain collected by the S&P 500 Index (SPX).

Wall Street seems less than impressed by this technical outperformance, though. Earlier today, S&P Equity downgraded the stock to hold from strong buy, joining six other analysts who maintain a tepid rating on the shares.

Continue reading Outperforming Lennar Shrugs Off Downgrade

Why There Won't Be an Economic Recovery Soon

I am projecting U.S. GDP growth at about a 2% rate for the remainder of this year and in 2011. The two propellants of growth so far in this economic recovery -- the inventory revival and fiscal stimuli -- are largely exhausted.

The ending of inventory liquidation and their rebuilding in the past five quarters, starting with the third quarter of 2009, accounted for 58.5% of the overall gain of 3.6% in real GDP. Conversely, real final sales (real GDP ex inventories) grew just 1.4% in the last five quarters and were responsible for less than half the rise in real GDP, 48.2%.

Continue reading Why There Won't Be an Economic Recovery Soon

Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

Continue reading Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

Chasing Value: Is Congress Indirectly Helping International Paper?

International Paper logoForgive me but I am still fuming about what is going on in Washington with our money. Money that is disappearing faster and faster. No matter how much our representatives cut taxes and extend benefits, it is meaningless. What is the good of having twice as much money when it is worth only half.

Welcome to Washington D.C. -- home of the Great Pretenders.

We just think that our Capitol sits atop solid ground. I think if you swept away the top soil you would find a giant cardboard box because our leaders are certainly playing the biggest game of three-card Monte of all time.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Is Congress Indirectly Helping International Paper?

Home Values Plunged $1.7 Trillion in 2010

Despite talk all year long that the housing market was stabilizing and that it had reached bottom, home values in the U.S. have fallen $1.7 trillion in 2010, real estate website Zillow announced Thursday. Zillow's 2010 estimate is 63% higher than the $1 trillion drop it estimated in 2009, CNNMoney reported.

The first time home-buyer credit ended up to be just a blip in the overall price declines, demonstrating that market forces are more powerful than temporary fixes.

Continue reading Home Values Plunged $1.7 Trillion in 2010

Is Now a Good Time to Invest in a Home?

A frequent question voiced in dinner party circles in this neck of the woods (the metropolitan New York City area) is, 'Is now a good time to consider buying or investing in a home?'

Well, the latest S&P Case Shiller home price index suggests that home prices are likely to remaining sluggish -- selected, niche market gains, with flattish prices in most other markets -- through at least mid-2011. Hence, from a home price standpoint, the bias in tipped toward waiting a quarter or two, if you do not have to purchase a home.

Continue reading Is Now a Good Time to Invest in a Home?

Good News! Pending Home Sales Jumped a Record 10%

home salesBloomberg/Businessweek reported that the National Association Realtors' numbers showed a 10% for pending home sales. This is quite a news maker. Bloomberg News survey had predicted only a 1% rise. Records date back to 2001.

Dean Maki economist at Barclays Capital Inc. is quoted by Bloomberg/Businessweek saying: "The fundamentals that are driving home sales are low mortgage rates combined with job and income growth and that's why housing should be expected to grow in coming months."

Continue reading Good News! Pending Home Sales Jumped a Record 10%

Consumers Are More Upbeat, but Still Wary About Big Purchases

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose in November to 54.1, from 49.9 in October. Those people expecting conditions to get better rose to 16.7% from 15.8%. Those expecting conditions to worsen fell to 12.1% from 14.4%. The same ratios were found for job expectations.

On the other hand, the Case-Shiller composite index of home prices fell 1.5% in the third quarter from a year ago. The index showed an even further drop of 2% in the third quarter when compared to the previous quarter.

Continue reading Consumers Are More Upbeat, but Still Wary About Big Purchases

Case-Shiller Index Data Shows Home Prices Are Falling

home pricesAccording to Standard & Poor's (S&P) Case-Shiller home price index, home prices are falling faster in the nation's largest cities.

The index dropped 0.6% in September compared to August (some are reporting 0.7%), with 18 of the cities recording monthly price declines. The largest drop was reported in Cleveland, Ohio, which saw prices drop 3% compared to a month earlier. The only two cities where prices increased were Washington DC (thanks mainly to government spending) and Las Vegas (which has been battered in recent reports).

Continue reading Case-Shiller Index Data Shows Home Prices Are Falling

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Last updated: May 24, 2012: 09:34 PM

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