Many people are saying that the rise in oil prices is the result of loose monetary policy. They say that there is an easy solution to the problem. Raise interest rates substantially, and the problem will be solved. Since the rise in oil is also the primary cause of rising inflation, the inflation problem will be resolved as well.

There are several problems with this line of reasoning. Oil continued to rise as the Fed began to increase interest rates in 2004. Prices doubled as the Fed substantially tightened monetary policy. Europe also has the some of the same inflation issues that we face despite the refusal of the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower rates.

Then, there are the big questions. Why are oil prices rising? What is the short-term solution?

I believe that the main reason for the rise in oil prices is the rise of the developing world. The two nine hundred pound gorillas in this equation are India and China. Automobile demand is increasing in these countries and is likely to continue in the near future.

This is similar to the rise in oil prices in the late 1960's and early 1970's. After World War II, the United States was the primary industrial power. As the world industrialized, demand for oil increased. The United States was not the only nation driving cars extensively. Supply constraints were also introduced in the mid to late 1970's with the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution.

"You must own some gold in this economic environment," emphasizes natural resources authority Larry Edelson who sees the recent setback in gold prices as "an ideal time to buy."

The editor of Real Wealth offers two "core" favorites for those seeking to invest in the sector: streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) and Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY). Here is his review.

"Gold represents the epitome of the natural resource boom. It is the world's best barometer of inflation and financial crises. When inflation is on the rise, as it is now all over the world, gold thrives.

"And when there are financial crises, as we now have with the plunging dollar and the meltdown in the mortgage markets in the U.S. - gold gets an extra boost. Savvy investors flock to the safety of the precious metal, pushing its price even higher.

"In addition, there's more to the bull market in gold than just inflation and financial problems in the United States. Three billion new consumers in Asia are buying gold hand over fist! Previously in China, investors were not allowed to own gold. Now they can, and they are buying up gold like crazy.

AP reports that Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) predicts that the price of a barrel of oil could climb from its current $120 to as high as $200. That's not too much of a stretch because since January 2001, that price has risen 400% from $24. A rise to $200 would be a mere 67% increase from the current price. Meanwhile gasoline is likely to hit $4 a gallon this summer -- and if oil hit $200 a barrel, that could drive the price to $6.67 a gallon -- up 319% from the $1.59 it cost back in January 2001.

Why is the price of oil going up so much? Experts don't seem to know and I'm not an expert. But it looks like simple supply and demand does not explain such a rapid price rise. Some cite rising energy demand -- from China and India -- combined with a reduction in supply -- e.g., production declines in Mexico, an unstable oil industry in Venezuela and possible shrinking production capacity in the Middle East -- as a partial explanation.

But then there are the other factors that seem hard to measure -- the potential decline in the dollar, political instability (such as the U.S. firing warning shots at two Iranian boats in the Persian Gulf this week), and so-called speculators. Of all these factors, the speculators explanation is the most interesting. These could be hedge funds and commodities traders who borrow huge amounts of money to bid up oil prices.

The Saudis will shortly open one of the largest oil fields in the world for production. That would seem to be good news, but it may be the last big deposit of crude left in the country. And, getting it online has cost $15 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Even in Saudi Arabia, home to more than a quarter of the world's known recoverable reserves, the age of cheap and easily pumped oil is over."

In a period where oil now sells for $117 a barrel, the largest single question is whether global oil production has peaked. There are very few new, large fields being found now. Recently, Brazil said it has discovered one off its coast, but that is in very deep water. Getting to the crude will be expensive, and some of it may be beyond reaching at all.

Part of the rise in oil prices probably has nothing to do with current supply, but it may well anticipate a fall-off in crude production in years to come. Developing nations like China and India are still increasing their consumption. Without large new deposits to develop, there is every reason to expect that oil reserves may start to fall a decade from now.

There is nothing to replace that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Large emerging market countries will use more crude oil than the US for the first time ever. According to Bloomberg, "China, India, Russia and the Middle East for the first time will consume more crude oil than the U.S., burning 20.67 million barrels a day this year."

While OPEC says that higher oil prices are the result of a weak dollar and speculation, that viewpoint is clearly wrong. Demand for oil is moving up and moving up quickly. At the same time there is evidence that supply may drop. Saudi Arabia has indicated that it will soon stop investing in more oil production facilities. The Wall Street Journal says that "After 2009, the kingdom is putting a brake on new projects, because it fears rising output and consumption of biofuels and other non-fossil fuels will erode crude-oil demand."

Anyone who believes the Saudi excuse for cutting investment is a oil production is a fool. By dropping capital expenditures on new facilities, the country can increase the tens of billions of dollars in profits it makes on $116 oil.

The war between consuming nations and producing nations is entering a new and more dangerous phase. Oil needs to rise 30% to hit $150. Based on the price increase over the last year, that number is not beyond the realm of possibility. Nor is the idea that gas prices could top $5 a gallon.

Oil. More consumption and less supply. Ugly results.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

On an almost weekly basis, OPEC makes its case that increasing oil production will not bring down the price of crude. And, almost every week oil consuming countries see the statements as self-serving. While the members of the cartel bring in tens of billions of dollars with oil hitting $116, there is absolutely no economic incentive for them to pump on additional drop of the black gold.

Bloomberg reports that OPEC's chief says, "Any increase in production now will not have an impact on prices because there is a balance between supply and demand." The statement is laughable on the face of it. While speculation in price and a falling dollar have contributed to some of the rise in crude, so has demand from countries like China and India. Demand has also not fallen in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, which have traditionally been the largest markets of oil.

Unfortunately, consuming nations have very little leverage with OPEC. The U.S. does offer military security to many Arab states in the Middle East, but it does not seem to be willing to use that as a bargaining chip.

Too bad.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

"Consulting firm Jacobs Engineering Group (NYSE: JEC) is squarely focused on helping the world solve its infrastructure problems," says David Fessler, advisory panelist for the Oxford Club.

"Jacobs offers broad-based, bumper-to-bumper technical services. With over 54,000 employees staffing 160 offices in 20 countries, Jacobs is one of the world's largest and most diverse providers of professional and technical services.

"And it's keeping plenty busy building and upgrading infrastructure the world over. Its latest big contract win -- worth about $550 million over a three-year period -- comes from the Louisiana Department of Education for post-Katrina reconstruction.

"The work will cover the replacement of damaged or destroyed school facilities as well as the construction of temporary facilities.

"We like to invest in the strongest sectors and we think Industrials are on their way to the top," note Ron Rowland and Brandon Clay in All Star Investor.

The advisors explain, "Surveying the horizon of industrial companies, the most promising is Bermuda-based, Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR). This is a stock you want for the next 12 months."

"The stock market is a leading indicator; it starts to decline before the economy slows down, and it starts to advance well before the economy improves. These lags often results in a stock market that starts moving up just when the public becomes 'convinced' that the problems are serious.

"Economic reports are likely to get worse. Housing foreclosures are likely to increase. Many more employees are likely to be let go. These are the perceptions that currently haunt investors.

"However, these are often the very same perceptions that create bottoms in the stock market. It is hard to see how the economy will crawl out of this mess, but eventually it will. The groundwork is now being laid.

"It may seem counter-intuitive, but investors should start planning for the next expansionary cycle. Markets move well ahead of facts, and it's time to invest accordingly. And indeed, industrials have risen in our rankings in recent weeks.

"A global leader of broad-based equipment offerings, Ingersoll-Rand is positioned to capitalize on the next phase of development like no other company in its sector. Here's why.

From 2002 through the end of 2007 the value of a dollar has depreciated 29% according to the Congressional Research Service. After several dramatic interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Board in the first quarter of 2008 the dollar has fallen further.

The exact amount is in question as it does fluctuate daily, but I think from all I have read it is not unrealistic to add another 6% bringing a loss in purchasing power of 35%. So what would gas cost if the dollar had remained stable? For conversations' sake it would be closer to $2.60.

We can blame OPEC, the oil companies, increased demand in China and India, terrorism or all of the above for high oil prices, but in the end it is the weak dollar that has created the most price pressure. In other words, we can blame ourselves.

Rice, a staple food for about 3 billion people, is becoming a precious commodity as a result of rising demand -- a reality that's prompting some agriculture watchers to ask whether global grain producers will be able to keep the world adequately supplied amid solid emerging market economic growth.

China, Egypt, Vietnam, and India, which represent about one-third of global rice exports, curbed sales this year, and Indonesia did so as well, Bloomberg News reported Monday. Grain and food demand is increasing at above-trend rates due to solid economic growth in emerging markets. These regions are experiencing expanding middle classes -- a factor that historically has almost always led to rising per capita food consumption in the country where the growth occurred.

As a result, the price of rice and other commodities has soared -- rice hit $21 per 100 pounds on Monday, Bloomberg News reported -- and governments may face increased social unrest, given the pivotal role rice plays in many developing nations.

The reality of rising food prices in the United States sometimes registers with consumers in subtle ways.

A shopper who regularly buys groceries at the Stop & Shop in the New York suburb of Larchmont, New York, scans a loaf of bread and suspects that the scanner must have made a mistake because it indicated $2.49 for the loaf.

Then the shopper realizes the scanner didn't make a mistake: that loaf of bread, which was just $1.79 or thereabouts a few months ago, is now more than two bucks -- a 39% price jump.

Whether you realize it or not, food prices are ramping higher, due to surging commodity prices and rising demand for high-protein foods in emerging market countries. Food prices rose 5% in 2007, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data, the Associated Press reported Tuesday.

Every day another story about our recession and the related fallout pops up. Are we in a recession or not? Or will we just teeter on the edge? The debate continues between those anal retentive types that must see all the actual facts, and those that see the signs all around and proclaim that "if it looks like a duck and it quacks like a duck, then by golly..."

The Federal Reserve Board has acted as if we are in a recession. They sit on one side of the teeter totter lowering interest rates to counter balance the weak economy and moderate the impact of potential negative growth. Clearly they are throwing ballast off a sinking ship.

There has been much debate recently about the Fed's dramatic bailout of The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) with the cooperation and maybe hand rubbing of JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). Some feel Bear Stearns should have been allowed to collapse and others feel that the Fed had no choice in the matter and was not protecting BSC, but the overall confidence in world financial markets.

Oil spiked up to $107 on news that an Iraq pipeline had been blown up, potentially disrupting supply. Oil-consuming nations had watched crude drop to $100 on hopes that a slowing global economy would cut demand.

In all probability, the hunger for oil in areas such as China and India will keep the need for oil high. There is also evidence that older fields in the Middle East and the Arctic are not yielding as much crude as they once did. The supply and demand dynamics may keep oil prices high for a very long time.

Oil disasters like Iraq and Katrina almost always cause a rapid rise in oil prices because of concerns that, at least temporarily, crude will be more scarce.

But, there may be a "two disaster" rule that could spike up oil prices 15% to 20%, at least for a time. Under this set of circumstances oil might be interrupted in Nigeria -- where the government is unstable, and Iraq -- where there may be more attacks on the infrastructure. Or, the head of Venezuela could cut off oil because he hates the US. If this is combined with a pipeline problem in northern Alaska, crude could take a big run.

The "two disaster" rule has not been fully tested, but the chances that it will be in the next year are increasing. The world's political scene is too volatile and the pipe and refineries that supply oil are, in many cases, too old.

Crude is going to $120. It is just a question of when and for how long.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

"If you've ever read the great E.M. Forster and his seminal novel A Passage To India, you are probably already acquainted with the riches of India's culture," notes leading fund expert Doug Fabian.

In his Successful Investing, the advisor explains, "Now thanks to two new exchange-traded funds, it's going to get easier than ever to get acquainted with the financial riches of India's equity markets."

"WisdomTree Investments launched what it calls the investment industry's first exchange-traded fund focused on India. The fund, called WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSE: EPI), began trading on Feb. 22. Rival ETF provider PowerShares is right behind with its PowerShares India Portfolio (NYSE: PIN).

"WisdomTree India Earnings Fund invests directly in local Indian securities by selecting from a universe of approximately 150 profitable companies that are included in the WisdomTree India Earnings Index.

It was reported long ago that Ford Motor (NYSE: F) was shopping its Jaguar and Land Rover brands. Today it finally announced it has closed the deal to sell these premier British brands to Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM) of India for $2.3 billion. Ford, which has been losing money, found its share price way down, closing yesterday at $5.96 (now up a few cents in premarket trading) and was in need of a cash infusion.

Tata Motors, having just introduced a low-end $2,500 car to the Indian market, is now filling out the upper end of the spectrum by bringing these two well known British brands to a country with a tradition and heritage long ago saturated with British "imperialist" remnants like cricket and tea time. If Jaguar and Land Rover are to be revitalized, then Tata Motors probably has a better chance of success than most.

Ford bought Jaguar for $2.5 billion in 1989 and Land Rover for $2.7 billion in 2000. Nine months ago I posted Chasing Value: Tata Motors LTD - patience, patience, GOT IT! and now Tata has got it! What it hopes to do with these brands is gain some international credibility, based on a solid Indian foundation.

Tata's stock closed yesterday at $17.36, up slightly on the rumors. It is about midway between its 52-week low of $14.71 and its high or $21.30. This deal could send both companies forward humming a new tune. I would even speculate more wildly just for fun that in this world of expanding markets, integrated economies and corporate consolidation, Ford and Tata Motors could one day find reason to unite.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: We own shares in TTM.