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Manufacturing Down for a Third Straight Month

The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index fell to 55.5 in July, down from 56.2 in June. 74 analysts polled by Reuters had estimated the number to be 54.2.

New orders also fell to 53.5 in July, down from 58.5 in June. Referring to the sharp drop, Pierre Ellis of Decision Economics said: "Even though the decline in the headline number is smaller than expected, the composition shows weakness, particularly in new orders, which is bad news."

Continue reading Manufacturing Down for a Third Straight Month

U.S. Economic Uncertainty Creates a Range-Bound Dow

If you sense that the U.S. stock market recently seems to trade up one day on a good data point, then trade down the next, when a negative data point is released, you're not the only one.

Further, look for the Dow to remain range-bound, with rallies and pull-backs containing little conviction, until the U.S. economic outlook has been clarified.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke perhaps best summarized the U.S. economic outlook when he termed it "unusually uncertain." Don't misunderstand: The U.S. economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace in the second quarter, but conflicting data regarding what's next abounds.

Continue reading U.S. Economic Uncertainty Creates a Range-Bound Dow

Oil Trades Up to $73 on Expected Inventory Drop

Oil traded higher today. After falling for six straight session, U.S. crude was up 2.1% to $73.48. The catalyst was an expected drop in inventories. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will likely show a drop of 2.8 million barrels, according to Reuters analysts. Gasoline inventories were forecast down 300,000 barrels.

The rally was also fueled by the jump in U.S. stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 1.17% powered by better than expected earnings from State Street Corporation (STT). Robert Yawger, commented that: "More than anything else, its the strength in equity markets that are supporting crude oil markets."

Continue reading Oil Trades Up to $73 on Expected Inventory Drop

The New World of ETFs

Twenty years ago, Nathan Most invented the exchange-traded fund (ETF) as a simple mutual fund that trades on exchanges like a stock. Then other creators like Blackrock Inc. (BLK) joined in, creating ETFs for commodities as well as exotic ones that double and triple returns. They are called 2x and 3x shares.

When first introduced, ETFs were shunned, mainly because investors knew little about the way they worked. Slowly, they gained momentum, and now there are some 260 such funds trading $40 billion globally. On some days, more than four out of ten trades on U.S. stock exchanges involve ETFs.

Continue reading The New World of ETFs

New Home Sales Plunge to a Record Low

The housing market is on the ropes. The Commerce Department reported that new home sales plunged 33% in May, which is the lowest reading on record. Industry analysts hold that new home sales are a better barometer of the market than existing home sales. Some of the drop can be attributed to the expiration of the home buyer tax credit.

Continue reading New Home Sales Plunge to a Record Low

Market Opinions: Byron Wien vs. Nouriel Roubini

Here's a story about the psychological dynamic of stock market trading. When trading we work from preconceived assumptions, i.e. are we bullish or bearish. Usually we find traders on both sides of a market.

Byron Wien of the Blackstone Group (BX) is in the bullish camp. Here are some of his assumptions:

Continue reading Market Opinions: Byron Wien vs. Nouriel Roubini

New Circuit Breakers to Be Implemented to Prevent Another Flash Crash

electronic trading New circuit breakers will take effect next week on the NYSE aimed at preventing another "flash crash." Under this new system, halts are triggered based on where the price of the stock was trading during the previous five minute period. They will be in effect from 9:45 a.m. to 3:35 p.m.

During the crash of May 6, some stocks crashed to near zero. For example, Accenture (ACN) plunged from $40 to an incredible penny per share.

Continue reading New Circuit Breakers to Be Implemented to Prevent Another Flash Crash

The Dow Rises, Falls, and Sometimes Meanders for a Long Time

There are bull markets and bear markets, and while each often display a pattern that matches historical precedents, there are those 'irregular periods' that break the mold. Moreover, investors need to remain cognizant of that fact that an irregular period can be long. Very long.

For example, consider the period beginning in the mid-1960s. The Dow crossed the 1,000 mark for the first time in January 1966. President Lyndon B. Johnson (D-Texas) was in the White House then, and he was in the process of escalating the war in Vietnam. Inflation rose, due to ramping defense and social spending. The Dow soon dropped below 1,000.

Continue reading The Dow Rises, Falls, and Sometimes Meanders for a Long Time

Serious Money: Powerful Dividends Powering the Nation

We can make this short and sweet: buying utilities pays off in many ways that other investments do not. Utilities pay regular dividend distributions that are higher than most stocks, bonds, Treasuries, and certificates of deposit. In these volatile times, utility stocks add stability to your portfolio and moderate the wild swings. And, here is the kicker that everyone but day traders will appreciate: long term returns beat all of the major indices over time.

The following charts and stocks will further make the case.

Continue reading Serious Money: Powerful Dividends Powering the Nation

Have Exchanges Reached the Limits of Automated Trading?

It may be months -- if not years -- before investors, experienced and otherwise, definitively learn what caused last week's market plunge -- a nearly 1,000-point dive intra-day that, even in the financial crisis era's volatile trading, amazed even veteran trading floor specialists.

And that latter actor, or lack thereof, may prove to be the pivotal clue. While one doesn't want to indict technology before the evidence has been assembled and reviewed, the initial analysis suggests that some form of computer-to-computer, negative-spiral trading at least contributed to last Thursday's plunge in the Dow.

Continue reading Have Exchanges Reached the Limits of Automated Trading?

Inflation Level, Not Q1 Earnings, to Determine Rally's Fate

Will the market rally continue?With institutional bulls and bears engaged in a battle over Dow 11,000 and with market's bull run showing signs of getting a little long in the tooth, investors are legitimately asking whether now is good time to exit certain stocks that have registered impressive gains, in anticipation of a correction.

The major unknown, of course, is whether a correction is up ahead. What's one act that will add ammunition to the bears' argument? The U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Continue reading Inflation Level, Not Q1 Earnings, to Determine Rally's Fate

Dress Barn Tapped to Join S&P MidCap 400 Index

Late Monday, Standard & Poor's announced that Dress Barn (DBRN) has been selected to join its S&P MidCap 400 Index (MID). The retailer will replace outgoing MID member Terra Industries (TRA), which is in the process of being acquired by CF Industries (CF).

Dress Barn is slated to join MID after the close of trading on Friday, April 9, when CF's exchange offer to acquire Terra is expected to be complete. Meanwhile, NorthWestern Corp. (NWE) will step into Dress Barn's former spot in the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (SML).

Continue reading Dress Barn Tapped to Join S&P MidCap 400 Index

Before the Bell: Futures Lower Ahead of Fed Minutes

U.S. stock futures dropped slightly Tuesday morning as investors took a breather from the recent weeks' runup that had the Dow industrials closing just shy of 11,000 Monday. As traders booked some gains concerns over Greece and the area's stability were renewed. In focus Tuesday are also the Federal Reserve's minutes from its recent meeting.

U.S. stocks and bonds reacted Monday to Friday's significant rise in nonfarm payroll. Traders pushed the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average near 11,000 to 10,974. The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 also rose, while the 10-year Treasury yield reached 4% for the first time since June. It's not surprising then that investors may be more cautious Tuesday.

Continue reading Before the Bell: Futures Lower Ahead of Fed Minutes

Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

For comparison I tracked the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ. Each of these produced positive results for the quarter.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2010 Picks Triple Market Returns

U.S. Manufacturing Experiences Largest Gain Since 2004

Manufacturing expanded in March at the fastest pace since 2004. The Supply Management's factory index rose to 59.6. This exceed forecasts by Bloomberg News survey of 77 economists. Readings above 50 indicate expansion.

"Manufacturing is on a tear" said Chris Rupkey of bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi. "Manufacturing driven growth and export driven growth are getting us out of the recession and turning the recovery into a more sustainable one. As production increases, it means job gains are going to spread."

Continue reading U.S. Manufacturing Experiences Largest Gain Since 2004

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DJIA+33.6012,529.75
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S&P 500+1.821,320.68

Last updated: May 25, 2012: 03:16 AM

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