Analyst Upgrades

• Tyson Foods (TSN) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Carmike Cinemas (CKEC) to buy from neutral at Merriman.
• Ambow Education (AMBO) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Johnson Controls (JCI) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• Dynex Capital (DX) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Ensco (ESV) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• York Water (YORW) to buy from hold at Brean Murray.
• Mid-America Apartment (MAA) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) to hold from sell at Citigroup.
• Forest Oil (FST) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Tractor Supply (TSCO) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.

Analyst Upgrades

• Red Hat (RHT) and American Public (APEI) to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.
• KBR (KBR) and Foster Wheeler (FWLT) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Bio-Rad (BIO) to outperform from market perform at Leerink.
• Oceaneering (OII) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• ASM International (ASMI) and Avid Technology (AVID) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Dominion Resources (D) to equal weight from underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Nationwide Health Properties (NHP) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Vivus (VVUS) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Intersil (ISIL) to buy from hold at Canaccord.

Johnson Control (JCI) said Friday that a boost in auto production and new vehicle launches helped it turn in a profit during the fiscal third quarter. The company reported net income of $418 million, or 61 cents per share, during the quarter. Excluding one-time items, JCI earned 54 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate by a penny. Quarterly revenue came in at $8.54 billion, an increase of 22% and better than the expected $8.48 billion.

The Milwaukee-based company also announced that it has agreed to up its stake in a joint venture with South Korean firm Delkor Corp. to 90%. The higher stake will cost the company $90 million. Delkor Corp. produces automotive batteries.

Analyst upgrades

• UBS upgraded CF Industries (CF) to neutral from sell. The firm cites valuation for the upgrade. In addition, UBS raised its price target on shares to $84 from $81.
• Baird upgraded Johnson Controls (JCI) to outperform from neutral and raised its price target to $42 from $33. The upgrade was based on improving margins, China growth, and upside from a cyclical recovery.
• Barrington upgraded G&K Services (GKSR) to outperform from market perform ahead of the company's Q3 results to reflect optimism regarding the company's operational turnaround. The firm set a $35 price target for shares.
• LaSalle Hotel (LHO) was upgraded to top pick from outperform at RBC Capital.
• Zimmer (ZMH) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Thermo Fisher (TMO) was upgraded to buy from hold at Jefferies.

Garmin (GRMN) closed at $31.95. GRMN is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on February 24. March option implied volatility is at 51, April is at 50, July is at 48, above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Three stocks with IV rise on Feb 12; Microsoft (MSFT) +1%, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ) +1%, Visa (V) +1%, according to IVolatility.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Research in Motion (RIMM) to hold from sell to reflect the company's Q3 results and guidance. The firm raised its target price on shares to $75 from $60.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Northern Trust (NTRS) and State Street (STT) to outperform from market perform to reflect valuation and favorable longer-term secular trends. The firm keeps a $58 price target on Northern Trust and a $51 target on State Street.
• UBS upgraded Universal Health (UHS) to buy from neutral and raised its target to $38 from $31. The firm said hospital checks indicate bad debt has not increased vs. Q3 and that Universal Health should report an in-line to better-than-expected Q4.
• Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) was upgraded to hold from sell at Kaufman Bros.
• Whiting Petroleum (WLL) was raised to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• BP Plc (BP) was upgraded at Goldman to buy from neutral.

U.S. stock futures drifted higher Tuesday morning, pointing to a somewhat flat beginning on Wall Street this morning after yet another sell-off day Monday despite a series of strong earnings releases. Investors await several economic releases due out this morning, including housing and consumer confidence, looking for direction.

Economic releases this morning include September durable goods orders at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, which is expected to have risen. At 9 a.m., the August Case-Shiller Home Price Index is due out. Prices are expected to have continued their slide. At the same time, October's Conference Board reading on consumer confidence will be released. Economists expect confidence has improved slightly.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Adtran (NASDAQ: ADTN) to Buy from Hold on expectations the company will benefit from the broadband Stimulus funds.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) to Overweight from Equal Weight based on relative valuation and views the company as a "survivor." Additionally, the analyst lowered 2009 industry estimates but believes it is the last cut for the year and is incrementally more positive on the sector.
• Morgan Stanley also upgraded EXFO Electro-Optical (NASDAQ: EXFO) to Overweight from Market Weight based on valuation.
• Tata Motors (NYSE: TTM) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Ascent Solar (NASDAQ: ASTI) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
• Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer is seeing signs of a coming boom, but he's still being cautious here.

If you had to define the early cycle, if you had to outline what stocks should be soaring coming out of a recession into a boom and which ones should be faltering, you would have to say the action in this market in the last month is the quintessential behavioral pattern.

What are the components of the early cycle? First, it's the homebuilders. As is typical coming out of a recession, the stocks precede the bottom of housing. That's exactly what's happening with the lowest permits and highest affordability and best mortgage rates and massive inventory. Everywhere, except on Wall Street reporting, the bottom is bursting out. When you read the lead story in the Sunday Philadelphia Inquirer, and it is all about the thousands of prospective homebuyers heading south to pick up condos and homes for half of what they were worth two years ago -- or even less -- and you know that virtually no one has broken ground in the Sunshine State in a year, you can bet that the bottom's actually behind us. This housing market has wiped out all but the most stable private builders and even the public ones are merging as we know from Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and Centex (NYSE: CTX) (Cramer's Take). So, in the next cycle, you can see some profitability developing year over year even though the new homes don't have much margin because the foreclosed homes next door are going for a song. And don't believe this won't change the dynamic of future foreclosures. In most areas, rent is higher than the interest on mortgages, so you will find that second or third job needed to stay in your home. The incentive structure's radically different than a year ago.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

The new earnings season ramps up this week as Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports fourth-quarter results. Last week, the Pittsburgh-based producer of aluminum and alumina announced layoffs and production cuts as a reaction to the economic downturn. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that Alcoa will have swung to its first quarterly loss in years: $0.10 per share. That compares to a profit of $0.36 per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenues for the quarter are expected to have fallen 28.8% from a year ago to $5.3 billion. For 2008, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $27.6 billion, down from $2.60 per share and $30.8 billion in the previous year. Alcoa missed earnings estimates in three of the past five quarters, by 25.4% in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts shifted from buy to hold AA during the past quarter. The share price has been climbing in recent weeks, but it is 65.6% lower than a year ago.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is also scheduled to report fourth-quarter results this week, one of a handful of tech stocks to do so. The number one semiconductor maker is expected to post earnings down 86.8% to $0.05 per share, and sales of $8.2 billion, down 23.3% from a year ago. Last week, Intel forecast sales for the quarter of $8.2 billion. The full-year numbers are expected to be marginally lower than a year ago, or $0.94 per share on $37.7 billion. Intel only missed earnings estimates in one of the past five quarters. Shares are about $2.00 higher than the 52-week low, but 37.2% lower than a year ago.

The Summer Olympics are only days away and what the Chinese had hoped would be their coming out party to celebrate all that is good, may instead become quite the opposite.

The air pollution in Beijing is so bad that even reducing automobile traffic by 50% has not helped much. China is now considering a 90% reduction according to news reports. Athletes are staying in other countries until the games begin so that they may train somewhere they can breathe. There are also reports that many athletes involved in stamina events will be forced to wear masks to protect themselves from the particulates in the air.

Now Reuters is reporting that "Some International Olympic Committee officials cut a deal to let China block sensitive websites despite promises of unrestricted access, a senior IOC official admitted on Wednesday."

So the world media will not be able to do their jobs in a manner they are accustomed to. But who are we actually referring to? Western media, of course, because half the world still limits access to information to some degree.

Altera Corporation (NASDAQ: ALTR) makes high-density programmable logic devices and associated development tools. PLDs are integrated circuits that clients can program themselves, using software that Altera also provides. This allows clients to provide their customers with special-purpose chips that cost less than equivalent custom-designed devices. Altera's circuits are used by thousands of customers in computing, telecommunications, industrial, and automotive applications. Clients include Honeywell (NYSE: HON), Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) and Motorola (NYSE: MOT).

Investors were pleased earlier in the week, when Altera reported Q2 EPS of 32 cents, revenues of $359.9 million and a gross margin rate of 67.1%. Analysts had been expecting 27 cents, $346.7 million and 65.01%. The company also guided Q3 revenues to about $349.1-$359.9 million ($350.51M consensus). Management noted a current book-to-bill ratio significantly above one and remarked that the firm had repurchased 526,000 shares so far in Q3. The board declared a five cent quarterly dividend.

EMCOR Group (NYSE: EME) plans, installs, operates and maintains the systems that create facility environments. These include installations for power generation, power distribution, lighting, security, communications, plumbing, waste treatment, heating, ventilation, refrigeration and air-conditioning. The firm also provides facilities management and maintenance support. It serves commercial, industrial and institutional clients such as Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE: BMY) and Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB). Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) is a major competitor.

The Street was surprised last week, when EMCOR guided FY08 EPS from $2.08-$2.28 to $2.22-$2.42 and FY08 revenues from $6.3-$6.5 billion to $6.8-$7.0 billion. Analysts had been looking for $2.31 and $6.76 billion. The CEO cited "solid order activity" and a "strong contract backlog" for the favorable view.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says recent downgrades are killing whole industries, and they're coming at a terrible time.

You can't lose autos and aerospace. Yet that's what's happening. The devastating aerospace downgrade by Goldman yesterday had pin action galore, wrecking everything from United Tech (NYSE: UTX) (Cramer's Take) and Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take) to BE Aerospace (NASDAQ: BEAV) (Cramer's Take). It took the whole frame down with it and made everything toxic. And it happens at a terrible time. It isn't like Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take), which with a few days left in the quarter can come out defending itself. Goldman rolled a perfect strike.

And now the bowlers are back for more with an equally devastating "sell everything" call based on GM (NYSE: GM) (Cramer's Take). Once again it is seamless: Lear (NYSE: LEA) (Cramer's Take) and Tenneco (NYSE: TEN) (Cramer's Take) get jettisoned too, but you know that Visteon (NYSE: VC) (Cramer's Take) and American Axle (NYSE: AXL) (Cramer's Take) and Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI) (Cramer's Take) and BorgWarner (NYSE: BWA) (Cramer's Take) -- the good ones! -- go down with the car.