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Options Update: Newmont Mining Up on Record Gold Prices

Newmont Mining (NEM) closed up $2.96 to $63.39. Gold is recently up 2.00% to $1,272 according to Bloomberg. NEM option volume of 26K contracts compares to put volume of 14K contracts. October put option implied volatility is at 33, December is at 34. This versus its 26-week average of 35, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

JCPenney Co. Inc. (JCP) closed up $1.66 to $23.99. JCP Chief Executive Mike Ullman told attendees at a Goldman Sachs conference that the retailer expects se see better same-store sales in Q4 than it did a year ago. JCP call option volume of 33K contracts compares to put volume of 5K contracts with short term speculation volume in September 23 and October 24 calls. October put option implied volatility is at 44, November and January is at 46. This is above its 26-week average of 42, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

DSW: Buy or Sell After Q2 Report?

DSW Inc. (DSW) has come off its 52-week high of $33.49. The chart shows that the stock has been trending downward since April. One could argue that it is basically following the market and its current bearish tendencies. But what about the fundamentals? What do they say?

The footwear entity, whose related companies include Collective Brands (PSS) and J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), reported net income of 52 cents per share for the second quarter. Last year at this time, the business made 17 cents per share.

Continue reading DSW: Buy or Sell After Q2 Report?

JCPenney Falls to 52-Week Low on Weak Guidance

JCPenney (JCP) logoJCPenney (JCP) fell to a new 52-week low of $20.20 Friday morning after its second-quarter results included weaker-than-expected full-year earnings estimates.

JCPenney said growth of store and Internet sales, as well as tightly controlling expenses, resulted in record-level gross margins for the period. Earnings totaled $14 million, or 6 cents per share, in the quarter, compared to a loss of $1 million, or break-even per share, in the same quarter of last year. Analysts' estimates were topped by a penny per share.

Continue reading JCPenney Falls to 52-Week Low on Weak Guidance

The Week in Preview: FOMC Meeting, Consumer Sentiment, Retail Earnings

Federal ReserveFederal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meets again on Tuesday. Though the August meeting of the FOMC is generally uneventful, this time there is speculation about whether the FOMC will resort again to some quantitative easing -- a way of pumping additional money into the financial system.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has already hinted at such a move, given that economic growth has clearly slowed. Last week's disappointing employment numbers are the latest confirmation of that. The question is whether the Fed's decision to take action will happen at this week's meeting, perhaps aggravating deflation fears, or it may wait until the September meeting, at which point it risks impacting the upcoming mid-term elections.

Continue reading The Week in Preview: FOMC Meeting, Consumer Sentiment, Retail Earnings

JCPenney Has Seen Recessions Come and Go

The shares of department store chain JCPenney (JCP), first discussed here on April 13, 2009, at a price of $26.52, have misbehaved this spring, forming a bear hug, during a downstairs walk to $20.

Moreover, were it not for JCPenney's demonstrated business model, the shares would have been kicked, but JCP's track record gets the benefit of the doubt here.

The shares have fallen roughly in-sync with revised sentiment that sees U.S. consumer spending increasing at a tepid pace in the second half of 2010. However, the calculation here is that JCP's same store sales will increase about 2.5% in 2010, enough to return the shares to healthier levels this year.

Continue reading JCPenney Has Seen Recessions Come and Go

Minibond Investing: Five Income Plays on Media and Retail

CBS logo"While stocks have moved up and down sharply in recent months, minibonds have just kept bobbling along, still paying their big dividends and accruing cash to keep paying those dividends," says income advisor Neil George.

The editor of The Pay Me Strategy explains, "You might be surprised to learn how large the universe of minibonds is; there are always new opportunities to add to your minibond collection. Take a peek at what I've found and perhaps take a nibble or two.

For example, media companies CBS (RBV) and Viacom (VNV) have both had to deal with cost containment challenges while trying to bolster revenues from their audiences and advertisers.

Continue reading Minibond Investing: Five Income Plays on Media and Retail

J. Crew Group's Q1: Income and Comps Were Beyond Cool

J. Crew Group (JCG), a mall entity whose neighbors include Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Gap (GPS), and JCPenney (JCP), has been trending higher over the last twelve months. Unfortunately, it is no longer near its 52-week high of $50.96. The shares closed at a price of $43.86 on Thursday. Is the recent pullback a possible buying opportunity?

Interestingly enough, Elizabeth Harrow, in a story previewing yesterday's after-the-bell earnings report, mentioned Wall Street's current discouraging attitude about the retailer. This will obviously make some investors hesitant to buy the stock. Yet, I remember how the company issued a great fourth-quarter summary back in March. At the time, I said taking profits might not be such a bad idea, and that there was nothing in the rulebook that said you couldn't check in on the business at a later date. Well, the later date is here. What should we think now?

Continue reading J. Crew Group's Q1: Income and Comps Were Beyond Cool

Analyst Calls: CCRT, DKS, HAST, JCP, M, MTG, MUSA, TJX, VZ, WWE ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Needham upgraded Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) to buy from hold following the company's Q1 results as it believes the sell-off in shares provides an attractive entry point into the name. The firm has a $31 price target for the stock. Piper Jaffrey upgraded Dick's Sporting to overweight from neutral following the company's Q1 results and raised its target for shares to $34 from $31.
  • Piper Jaffray also upgraded MGIC Investment (MTG) to overweight from neutral. The firm upgraded shares on valuation and raised its target to $11 from $10.
  • Macy's (M) was upgraded to buy from neutral and VeriSign (VRSN) was upgraded to sell from conviction sell at Goldman.
  • Fidelity National (FIS) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.
  • Watson Pharma (WPI) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: CCRT, DKS, HAST, JCP, M, MTG, MUSA, TJX, VZ, WWE ...

Nordstrom Down on Q1 News

Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN) is down in afternoon trading. A quote of $39.58 just went by my screen, which represents a decline of $1.71, or over 4%. Volume is high. The market as a whole is pretty bad, so some of the stock's bleeding has to be related to the negative sentiment hitting the major indexes, but the retailer, whose colleagues include The Gap, Inc. (GPS) and J.C. Penney Company, Inc. (JCP), did issue a first-quarter earnings report yesterday after the bell, so we'll have to check that out to see if anything fundamental might be up.

I'll tell you, I thought the press release contained some impressive numbers. Earnings per share increased 40% to 52 cents. Same-store sales rocked with a double-digit jump of 12%. How can the traders be down on that data?

Continue reading Nordstrom Down on Q1 News

JC Penney Posts In-Line Q1, But Sees Lukewarm Full-Year Sales

Is JC Penney (JCP) signaling that a rough road is ahead regarding retail sales? Perhaps.

JC Penney reported first quarter earnings of 25 cents per share, in-line with the Thomson/Reuters First Call estimate of 25 cents. Same store sales rose just 1.3%, and overall sales increased 1.2%.

JC Penney also said it expects second quarter same store sales to increase 2.5-3.0%, -- a smaller increase than its 5-year plan goal of 5% growth annually through 2014.

Continue reading JC Penney Posts In-Line Q1, But Sees Lukewarm Full-Year Sales

The Week in Preview: Eye on Retail -- JCPenney, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Kohl's, Macy's

Last week's retail sales numbers were encouraging. And some shopping mall favorites take their turns in the earnings spotlight this week: JCPenney (JCP), Nordstrom (JWN), Urban Outfitters (URBN), Kohl's Corp. (KSS) and Macy's (M). Overall, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect to see earnings growth from these retailers for the first quarter.

Texas-based department store operator JCPenney declared a quarterly dividend and tendered a debt offering in its first quarter. Earnings for that period are expected to have more than doubled from a year ago to $0.24 per share. Revenue for the three months that ended in April, however, is expected to have inched up 1.4% in the past year to $3.9 billion. And analysts expect to see year-over-year earnings and revenue growth in the second quarter. JCPenney's per-share earnings have come in within pennies of consensus estimates in the past five quarters, beating by two cents in the fourth quarter.

Continue reading The Week in Preview: Eye on Retail -- JCPenney, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Kohl's, Macy's

JCPenney: A Retail Sector Survivor

As expected, shares of JCPenney (JCP), first discussed here on April 13, 2009 at a price of $26.52, have rebounded after pulling-back at the start of the year.

JCPenney recently reported a March same store sales increase of 5.4%, including a decent spring merchandise performance at regular promotional prices. The March data also suggests a better-than-forecast summer/fall for JCP, hence it would not be a shock to see analysts raise their EPS estimates for 2010/2011.

The First Call FY2010/FY2011 EPS estimates for JCP are $1.55 to $1.94. Each EPS estimate looks about 10-15% low, according to my analysis.

Continue reading JCPenney: A Retail Sector Survivor

Analyst Calls: AA, BJ, CELG, DISH, JCP, MGM, TJX, TSCO, WSM ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Oppenheimer upgraded Williams-Sonoma (WSM) to outperform from perform. Opco believes the company's business model is being underappreciated by investors and upped its target price for shares to $40 from $26.
  • BMO Capital upgraded Tractor Supply (TSCO) to market perform from underperform and set a $75 target. The firm upgraded the stock after the company's positive preannouncement.
  • JCPenney (JCP) was upgraded to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
  • DISH Network (DISH) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
  • BJ's Wholesale (BJ) was upgraded to neutral from underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Taseko Mines (TGB) was upgraded to buy from hold at TD Newcrest.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AA, BJ, CELG, DISH, JCP, MGM, TJX, TSCO, WSM ...

J. Crew Posts Strong Q4: Time to Take Profits?

J. Crew Group (JCG), an apparel chain whose related stocks include Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Gap (GPS), and JCPenney (JCP), reported strong sales and earnings yesterday after the bell. I'm impressed; I have to say, like I did the last time, bravo to an excellent quarter.

Overall sales rose 19% in Q4, according to the corporate press release. Same-store revenues increased 17%. Earnings per share were 61 cents on a diluted basis. A loss of 22 cents was recorded twelve months ago. As far as the analysts go, they should be pleased. Then again, they probably should be disappointed, since their projections were completely taken out (I guess it all depends on one's perspective). Either way, the call was for net income to come in around 46 cents per share.

Continue reading J. Crew Posts Strong Q4: Time to Take Profits?

Great Quarter for Nordstrom, but Wall Street Isn't Satisfied

If you own shares of Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN), I assume you were pretty pleased with the Q4 report. The retailer, whose mall cohorts include The Gap Inc. (GPS) and JCPenney Company, Inc. (JCP), grew the top line by over 10%. Per-share profit increased over 150% to 77 cents. Gross margin expanded, as there was a reduction in the need for markdowns. And, perhaps most awesome of all, same-store sales roared higher by 6.9%.

All of that is great, but here's the thing that is probably inhibiting a big buying response for the stock. According to our earnings preview, Wall Street was expecting a little more on the bottom line. Two pennies more, in fact. Even with all those great stats, management missed projections.

Continue reading Great Quarter for Nordstrom, but Wall Street Isn't Satisfied

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DJIA+33.6012,529.75
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Last updated: May 25, 2012: 03:21 AM

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