Today was just another negative day at the office after yesterday. It felt as though we were trying to hold on when we saw a four day winning streak, but in this market it seems we constantly get reminded that good news is a brief thing.

Today's GDP was worse than a 3% drop year over year, but the economists were looking for worse than 5%. Everyone is fixated on the "bad bank" hopes, and it seems that realities will trump hopes in the end. So things still went from soft to ugly over the course of the day. Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 8,000.94 -148.07 (-1.82%)
S&P 500 825.90 -19.24 (-2.28%)
Nasdaq 1,476.42 -31.42 (-2.08%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Sean Udall.

Through my career I've generally stayed apolitical with regard to investment and trading decisions, but there have been times when some higher percentage trades have presented themselves due to political circumstances. Examples include: the tech push in Clinton's second term, the defense sector after Bush's 2000 victory, as well as the oil patch. Based on that, here are some overriding thoughts, in no particular order.

The market has moved to the phase where many if not most participants want and expect a pullback. Since the market confounds the greatest number of players most of the time, is a big pullback a lower probability event now? Moreover, does the selling panic of much of October turn into a buying panic in the coming weeks and months? I'm letting the charts lead me here but aware that this bullish case could possibly trump terrible economic conditions.

I still think the alt energy patch (solar, wind, battery tech, clean coal) will produce some of the best winners, but a lot of easy money has been made in just days. Quality and fundamentals will likely count much more now than over the past few months. Also, extended runs may become vulnerable quickly if policy decisions do not show quick tangible follow-through. Companies with the best balance sheets and funding sources will benefit the most and have the least downside on sharp technical pullbacks.

Today's economic numbers looked just as we expect for some time: Horrible. University of Michigan sentiment and housing looked atrocious. Warren Buffett wrote a short piece in the New York Times calling it the time to buy stocks. Today was an options expiration date and that led to added volatility throughout the trading day. Below are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA 8,852.22 (-127.04; -1.41%)
NASDAQ 1,711.29 (-6.42; -0.37%)
S&P500 940.50 (-5.93; -0.63%)
10YR T-Bond 3.938% (+0.002%)
Top Analyst Upgrades

Gilead Sciences (NASDAQ: GILD) traded up marginally after beating earnings with $0.55 non-GAAP EPS vs. $0.49 estimates, but it did outline how currencies helped out its bottom line. Shares still managed to trade up today and shares were up 3% at $42.67 right before the close.

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

• I've taken a leg in the Ultra QQQ ProShares (AMEX: QLD). The market has popped 2% off lows, the question is will it pop the full 7%?
  
  
• I'm seeing a few positive divergences and the percentage of stocks below the 50 day moving average is well below the 2002 levels. I haven't looked at the percentage of stocks below the 200 day, but I'm sure the reading should be equally distressed.
  
  
• I know people are pricing in earnings per share Armageddon in tech land -- so the question is, what happens to many of these stocks if it's really just sort of "punk" and not a total cataclysmic drop in revenue guidance.
  

Analyst upgrades:

• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of UBS (NYSE: UBS) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 update as they believe the quarter marks a turning point.
• Merill raised BP Plc (NYSE: BP) and Total SA (NYSE: TOT) to Neutral from Underperform.
• DISH Network (NASDAQ: DISH) was lifted to Hold from Sell at Soleil.
  
• Friedman Billings upgraded Sovereign Bancorp (NYSE: SOV) to Market Perform from Underperform as they believe the company's deposits are showing stability despite the massive sell-off.
  
• Kaufman Bros. raised Longtop Financial (NYSE: LFT) to Buy from Hold on valuation as they believe Chinese software service stocks now reflect the investment risks.
• Lear (NYSE: LEA) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.

Analyst downgrades:

• Morgan Stanley downgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) to Equal Weight from Overweight citing checks that indicate deteriorating trends are worst than expected.
  
• Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) and Pediatrix Medical (NYSE: PDX) were downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan.
  
• Merrill cut StatoilHydro (NYSE: STO) to Underperform from Neutral.
  
• HSBC (NYSE: HBC) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Dicks Sporting Goods (NYSE: DKS) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation.
  
• Home Depot (NYSE: HD) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform by Morgan Keegan.
  
• Southwest Airlines (NYSE: LUV) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform by Avondale.

Analyst downgrades:

• BMO Capital downgraded Hasbro (NYSE: HAS) to Underperform from Market Perform due to valuation and macro headwinds.
  
• UBS dropped Darden Restaurants (NYSE: DRI) to Neutral from Buy because of slowing casual dining trends.
• Goldman Sachs dropped Affiliated Computer (NYSE: ACS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Goldman also downgraded Automatic Data Processing (NYSE: ADP) to Neutral from Buy.

Analyst initiations:

• CIBC initiated Nortel Networks (NYSE: NT) with a Sector Performer rating based on what they see as the company's limited growth and margin prospects.
  
• Needham initiated Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Hold rating, citing valuation.
  
• Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) was initiated with a Hold by Needham, which would like to see if the company's turnaround is sustainable before becoming more constructive on the shares.

If you were looking for another hard day of profit taking on a summer Friday, the markets escaped the hangman. A barely positive durable goods of big ticket items was enough to send the pessimists to the showers and gave the bulls a little more ammo. Throw in an oil ticker showing a drop of more than $2.00 to almost $123.00 per barrel and that's all that was needed. Look at bond yields and you'll see we gave back almost all of yesterday's move.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
DJIA 11368.33 (+19.05)
S&P500 1257.65 (+5.11)
NASDAQ 2310.53 (+30.42)
10YR T-NOTE 4.111% (+0.095%)
TOP ANALYST UPGRADES
TOP ANALYST DOWNGRADES
Select Short Sales Data

Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) tripled earnings posted EPS of $0.78 vs. $0.64 estimates. The stock was up more than 3% in pre-open but was up almost 9% at $55.45 in the final minutes of the day.

Crocs Inc. (NASDAQ: CROX) led the garbage stocks after a very ugly earnings warning last night. It now sees sales for all of 2008 modestly lower than 2007 and is now only targeting a break-even result for 2008. Retailers were noted as keeping inventory re-orders at low levels, which is hard to blame them considering the ugly shoe fad has already started its workdown. Shares were down 44% at $4.99 after shares had already sold of more than 80% from 52-week highs.

U.S. stock futures were lower Friday morning, a day after a selloff triggered by housing data. Today investors are bracing for more housing data at 10:00 a.m. EDT after already hearing that foreclosures soared 121% during the second quarter. Other point of interest will be durable goods data reported an hour before the opening bell. Meanwhile, oil continued the steady climb that started Thursday as the dollar weakens, trading above $126 a barrel. It's Friday, and no many earnings reports are due.

While there aren't many earnings reports today, there are a few including Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO), Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and Black & Decker (NYSE: BDK) among others.

Crocs (NASDAQ: CROX) shares are tanking over 44% to $5 after after it cut its earnings outlook significantly on softer demand for its plastic shoes. With all those knockoffs around, is it any wonder? Robert W. Baird downgraded Crocs from Outperform to Neutral, slashing the target price from $21 to $5.

Meanwhile, Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) surged 12% in premarket trading after the company not only beat estimates when reporting quarterly results Thursday, but also increased its sales forecast for the third-quarter much higher than analyst estimates. Friedman Billings and Citigroup both upgraded Juniper to Outperform and Buy respectively.

In deal news, Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) shareholders on Thursday approved a $17.9 billion takeover by private equity funds Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital. This ends the 20-month long effort.

Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) is recently up 15 cents to $23.04 in pre-open trading.

JNPR named Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) veteran Kevin Johnson CEO. JNPR is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close tonight. RBC Capital Markets has a $30 price target on JNPR.

JNPR August option implied volatility of 51 is above its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting slightly larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Perhaps no one should be surprised that the head of Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT)'s internet unit left the company. Its bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) did not exactly work out well. Redmond will probably not have a big online empire to run without the buyout of the portal company.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Kevin Johnson, 47 years old, will take a job as chief executive of Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR), a Silicon Valley maker of networking hardware." The new position sounds like a pretty large step down.

As part of the effect of the departure, Microsoft will separate its Windows group from its online operation.

At this point, who would want to run the Microsoft internet division? It now stands as a distant third in the search business. It competes with Yahoo! and AOL in the portal segment. Display advertising growth rates are slowing.

Microsoft chief Steve Ballmer may say otherwise, but his company has lost the online war. There is nothing left that he can do about that. Spending billions of dollars has yet to gain his company any ground. No executive with a brain is going to want the chance to run a fading business.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASADQ: JNPR) stock is relatively flat today after an analyst at Friedman, Billings, and Ramsey initiated coverage on the stock with a "Market Perform" rating, saying he expects modest growth for the company over the next few years. The analyst said profit forecasts by other analysts are realistic, but there is reason to be cautious on JNPR, since other vendors have noted increasing caution by customers. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on JNPR.

After hitting a one-year low of $19.86 last April, the stock hit a one-year high of $37.95 in October. This morning, JNPR opened at $24.30. So far today the stock has hit a low of $23.69 and a high of $24.39. As of 12:40, JNPR is trading at $24.39, up 1 cent (0.04%). The chart for JNPR looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $31 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.1% return in 3 and a half months as long as JNPR is below $31 at July expiration. Juniper would have to rise by more than 27% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

JNPR hasn't been above $31 since January and has shown resistance around $26 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 4/24) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance JNPR might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $31.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JNPR.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq and Cognicase were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Friedman Billings believes Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is well-positioned to take advantage of "Business 2.0" applications and to gain share in a slower economic environment. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $31 target.
  
• NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) were assumed with a Neutral rating and $72 target and $44 target, respectively, at UBS. The firm cited increasing competition and moderating volumes.
  
• Deutsche Bank believes Cognicase (COGI) is one of the few carriers offering high-capacity commercial Internet access to enterprise customers at a discount to nearly all of its competitors. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $23 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• China Housing (OTCBB: CHLN) was initiated at Merriman with a Buy rating.
  
• Goldman started Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Market Perform rating and $27 target.
  
• Suntrust initiated hhgregg (NYSE: HGG) with a Buy rating and $16 target.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, California Pizza, and Seagate were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Banc of America downgraded shares of Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Neutral from Buy, despite believing the split into two businesses could ultimately unlock value, as they see few catalysts over the next year to lift shares. Banc of America also sees risk to Q1 earnings and lowered their target to $11 from $15.
  
• Friedman Billings lowered California Pizza Kitchen (NASDAQ: CPKI) to Market Perform from Outperform citing sluggish trends in its core markets.
  
• Seagate (NYSE: STX) was cut to Neutral from Outperform at Baird, citing weakening industry conditions throughout the month of March.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Goldman lowered the Communications Tech sector to Neutral from Attractive, and also downgraded Juniper Networks (NASDAQ: JNPR) and Starent Networks (NASDAQ: STAR) to Neutral from Buy, and Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Sell from Neutral.

Juniper Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: JNPR) shares are trading higher today after RBC Capital Markets upgraded the stock to Sector Perform from Outperform as noted by our own Eric Buscemi. We always think what kind of trade might make sense in light of the news. If you think that the company's stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on JNPR.

After hitting a one-year low of $17.21 in March, the stock hit a one-year high of $37.95 in October. JNPR opened this morning at $26.91. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.54 and a high of $27.36. As of 11:20, JNPR is trading at $27.16, up 97 cents (3.7%). The chart for JNPR looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $22.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade will make an 8.7% return in just two months as long as JNPR is above $22.50 at April expiration. Juniper would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.

JNPR hasn't been below $22.50 since last May and has shown support around $25 recently. This trade could be risky if JNPR continues its recent downward slide, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock has found just below $25 over the past month.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in JNPR.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Genentech, ESS Technology and SemGroup Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• Rodman & Renshaw upgraded Genentech (NYSE: DNA) to Outperform from Market Perform citing the FDA's approval of Avastin in mBC.
  
• Jefferies raised ESS Technology (NASDAQ: ESST) to Hold from Underperform to reflect the offer from Imperium Partners.
  
• Citigroup upgraded shares of SemGroup Energy (NASDAQ: SGLP) to Buy from Hold on valuation, as they believe the significant accretion expected from the partnership's recent asphalt terminal acquisition is not priced into the stock.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Yum! Brands (NYSE: YUM) was raised to Buy from Neutral at UBS.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  
• Goldman raised its rating on BJ Services (NYSE: BJS) to Neutral from Sell.