Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Professor Lewis,
Interesting times, eh what? Is gold being sold -- as the dollar trips down beneath 106 yen -- to raise cash?
For example, was the hedge fund world heavily invested enough there to make gold vulnerable as the ill effects of Lehman work themselves through the system?
I think you are just seeing gold (and gold stocks) flag a bit here.
Now that we have a deal from Congress, I expect everything is likely going to melt up, but gold and gold equities should rally more (and even make new highs) given the inflationary nature of this deal. Meanwhile, the rally in stocks is likely to just be a bear market rally. This $700 bln will keep the financial system functioning, but it's not a cure-all. It's also going to further cement the stagflationary forces that are pressing in from all sides. That's good for gold but not good for much else.
As for the dollar, I'm not sure we'll see new lows because the G7 will no doubt try and support it, but we could see the DXY move back to its July lows potentially after this bill has passed.
As for thoughts on GSS, KGC, AUY, and GLD, I like them all at these prices.
When gold was trading above $1,000 an ounce, Curtis Hesler reversed his buy signal and fortuitously warned of a seasonal pullback expected over the summer.
In his The Professional Timing Service, he stated, "Gold should settle into the cyclical and seasonal lows due in early August. Although you will hear plenty of bearish arguments as gold prices pull back, weakness will be a buying opportunity."
He now explains, "I don't think there is much left on downside for the mining shares. We will likely see the miners firm up and begin to rally before the bullion. My adice is to hold tight and exploit the fear.
"This weakness presents a final opportunity before the late summer and early fall strength returns to precious metals. The coast is clearing for gold to advance to new highs by October when its next seasonal high is due.
"Longer-term, I can't help but wonder if gold isn't anticipating the next break in the dollar. We all should be thinking about the trillions of dollars in U.S. government unfunded liabilities for Medicare, Social Security, pensions, etc. There's going to be a tsunami of dollars printed to cover all of that.
"At the top of my buy list is Kinross (NYSE: KGC). Yamana (NYSE: AUY) is an excellent diversification in the precious metals sector. Also among my favorites is Goldcorp (NYSE: GG)."
Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers the latest market commentary and favorite investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Last week, I wrote one article about 10 stocks making new 52-week highs and another about 10 stocks making new 52-week lows. Gold, oil and steel plays made up the majority of stocks making new highs while technology and finance companies were the ones plummeting.
Both articles gave some very basic rules on how to spot reversals while recommending investors cut their losses quickly and let their winners run. And, both articles were released mid-week around the same time of day. Yet the article about stocks making new lows turned out to be more than seven times as popular!
Why do you think that is? Sure, they're slightly more actively traded, but I believe investors are not comfortable buying into or holding commodity plays because they've already gone up so much. But they're perfectly willing to go down with the ship on blue chip brokers and technology plays, sometimes even doubling and worse, tripling up because they're invested in such "quality companies."
"Based in Toronto, Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) has been in business since 1993 and is now the third-largest primary gold producer in North America in terms of reserves," notes Gordon Pape who has added the stock to his buy list.
The editor of Internet Wealth Builder sees strong upside potential, noting, "There are several reasons we like the prospects for Kinross at this time." Here is his review.
"The company operates nine mines in several countries including the United States, Brazil, Chile, and Russia, and has three new projects in the works which are scheduled to come on stream over the next two years. Overall, management estimates that production will increase more than 60% in the next two years, from 1.6 million ounce of gold in 2007 to 2.6 - 2.7 million ounces in 2009.
"The company also has a declining cost profile. Kinross says it expects its cost per ounce to drop as the new projects come on stream, making it unique among senior gold producers.
Gold mining investors usually find it best to focus on expanding companies with solid reserves. There is a Toronto-based outfit that fits the profile nicely. It has solid production at home, development programs abroad and controls reserves amounting to three times its total production of the past 35 years.
Agnico-Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) is a long-established Canadian gold producer, with operations in Quebec and exploration and development activities in Canada, Finland, Mexico and the United States. Agnico-Eagle's LaRonde Mine is Canada's largest gold deposit, in terms of reserves. It also produces copper, zinc, and silver. The mine generates strong earnings and cash flows, providing the foundation for the company's international expansion. Competitors include Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM).
The stock popped earlier in the month, moving higher with the gold mining group, when the price of the precious metal rose above $700 per ounce. Shares subsequently moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern, but began a positive breakout on word earlier this week that drilling had extended the gold zones at the firm's Meadowbank mine project in the Nunavut territory of Canada.
The AEM Price to Book ratio (3.68), Operating Margin (47.19%), Net Profit Margin (29.97%) and Net Income per Employee ($161.06k) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 54% of the outstanding shares. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock has traded between $27.24 and $50.92. A stop-loss of $44.50 looks good here. Note that the firm is expected to report third quarter results in late October.
In my recent posts, I have been reviewing the most popular sectors for the coming year, according the the newsletter advisors who participated in the Top Picks from 2007 report. In my last post, I highlighted stocks in healthcare, tech, and telecom. Today, I want to review the resource sectors -- energy and metals -- that remain very popular among advisors, despite being out-of-favor in recent trading.
First, let's look at the metals, where gold remains a popular choice. Sy Harding chose ASA Bermuda, a closed-end gold fund, Curtis Hesler selected Yamana, and Martin Weiss opted for Kinross.
Outside of the precious metals, Tom Bishop chose copper play, Taseko Mines, while Neil Macneale selected steel stocks.
Equally as volatile as metals -- and currently out-of-favor -- has been energy. The energy sector has been high on the list of Top Picks for the past 4 years. This year, however, there is a noticeable shift.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) is the favorite speculative idea for 2007 from Martin Weiss. The editor of Safe Money Report explains, "All the money pumping by central banks around the world is driving investors into the one true currency that's stood the test of time -- gold.
"Once above the July high, around $676, it has a clear path to $700 and beyond. Speculators should consider Kinross, the third-largest gold mining company based in Canada, with mines not only in Canada, but also Brazil and Chile.
"Kinross has also just agreed to take over Bema Gold for around $2.55 billion, which, as with most acquisitions, temporarily depressed the shares of the buyer. Meanwhile, Kinross swung from a loss of $44.4 million in the third quarter of 2005 to a profit of $50.3 million in the same period this year. Revenue jumped 23% to $223.6 million. Cash flow from operations rose nicely -- to $86 million from $53 million a year earlier.
"The best news: The Bema takeover boosts Kinross's reserves by a whopping 68% to 41.6 million ounces and will boost annual production toward the 1.8 million ounce mark. Plus, Kinross is gaining a 49% stake in the $2 billion Cerro Casale gold and copper project in Chile, and a 75% stake in Bema's Kupol project in Russia."
To see Martin's favorite conservative investment for 2007, click here.