AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN), whose colleagues include Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Talbots (NYSE: TLB), reported Q2 earnings stats that beat the views of Wall Street. The retailer said it made $0.54 per share in the second quarter versus $0.51 per share earned in the similar period a year ago. These bottom-line results are on an adjusted basis. According to Reuters, analysts were looking for about $0.49 per share. So that's a nice $0.05 beat.
The bottom line may have surprised analysts, but other parts of the story didn't excite me. The top line decreased by almost 4%. Same-store sales took a big dive, declining pretty near 11%. Comps are an important metric for retailers, and a significant decrease like this one always makes investors cautious. Management cited low traffic levels as a driver of the dismal comps. Seems to me like someone at the chain needs to rethink the current marketing campaigns. The gross margin did improve, though, so at least there's that.
After reading through the earnings release, it became quite apparent to me that management is clearly worried about the economy going forward. They're right, I think the rest of the year may indeed be rough on the consumer. With such weak stats, I think it would be hard to make a case for buying AnnTaylor's stock. If you're a contrarian and think the company will consistently beat earnings from this point on, and you turn out to be right, then buying the stock now might make for a good trade. But I'd have to hear good reasons for such a bullish case. I think it's entirely possible that AnnTaylor's shares trend lower from here. No matter what, I won't be putting this retailer on my personal watch list. My advice to the company: get traffic through the door with more innovative promotional schemes.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
I've been expressing my long-term bullishness on Liz Claiborne, Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) since the company announced that Isaac Mizrahi would be taking over as creative director for its flagship brand. The stock is down a little since that announcement back in January, but with the re-launch under Mizrahi's direction scheduled to hit stores in February, investors could start bearing the fruits of that deal soon.
A piece (subscription required) in yesterday's Wall Street Journal looked at Mizrahi and his plans for the Liz Claiborne brand, which has seen its sales decline by about 50% so far this decade: "The collection includes modern styles like cork-covered high heels and oversize tote bags in soft neutrals, metallics and bright colors, according to two people who were there. The designs also incorporate an updated Liz Claiborne logo."
Goldman Sachs analyst Benjamin Rowbotham called the relaunch "the single most important issue" for the company, and Liz Claiborne has reportedly given Mizrahi a rare level of creative freedom in reviving its brand.
Liz Claiborne has struggled of late, even more so than the industry at large, but remember: Mizrahi made Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT) a cool place to shop for clothes. With the stock trading in the bargain basement, Mizrahi's new collection offers savvy investors tremendous upside potential.
Shares of Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) tumbled this week on an even weaker than expected second quarter earnings report, but the stock has since moved back to where it was before the release. Still: it's trading at $14.85, compared with the $40+ per share it was fetching in early 2007.
Suffice it to say, investors are skeptical about the company's prospects for a turnaround. The company said it expects to earn $1.40-$1.50 per share for 2008 so the price/earnings ratio is in the 10-range.
But there could be reason to expect tremendous upside over the long-term: back in January, the company signed legendary designer Isaac Mizrahi. At the time, I wrote that "If anyone can save the struggling fashion house, it's the man they just signed to be creative director of the company's flagship brand: Isaac Mizrahi. You can be sure he didn't come cheap, but he's just what they need. After all, this is the guy who actually managed to make Target (NYSE: TGT) a cool place to shop for clothes."
U.S. stock futures were mixed Wednesday ahead of retail sales, import price data and oil inventories reports. Analysts expect retail sales, to be reported at 8:30 a.m., rose 0.5% in July. Futures may find direction after the report. Meanwhile, oil futures rose ahead of the inventory report due out at 10:35 a.m., the dollar fell against some currencies and gold futures rose. [Update: Following a decline in retail sales in July, futures turned lower.]
Deere & Co. (NYSE: DE) has just reported quarterly results and shares sank 6.1% in premarket trade. The world's largest maker of farm machinery, said earnings in the latest quarter rose 7% and revenue increased 17% as soaring crop prices boosted global demand for its agricultural equipment. The company, however, missed on earnings and gave forecast that was lower than estimations.
Earnings are still due from Macy's (NYSE: M), among others.
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares rose 7.3% in premarket trading despite reporting a $121 million loss Tuesday. Investors liked that Nvidia announced a stock buyback of $1 billion and predicted margin improvement.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) also rose, up 1.2% in premarket trading after the largest maker of semiconductor-production machinery forecast better-than-estimated orders and CEO Mike Splinter said conditions will improve. Its fiscal third-quarter profit plunged 65%, but sales results beat estimates.
U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as oil prices continued to decline, with crude falling below $120 a barrel on demand concerns due to the economic slowdown in the U.S. Commodities in general have been declining. Also today, the Federal Reserve will announce its decision regarding interest rates and it is widely expected they will remain unchanged. Similarly, the Fed's outlook statement about outlook and focus may also remain largely the same according to expectations. Meanwhile, overseas, both the ECB and BoE are expected to leave rates unchanged.
One of Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)'s largest shareholders, Capital Research Global Investors, had asked to review the vote in last week's re-election of the Internet giant's board. Specifically, I guess, it was surprising the vote showed strong support -- 85% -- for CEO Jerry Yang. There's no sense dancing around this issue; basically the shareholder implies suspicions of wrongdoings (or really really incompetent tallying of votes).
Bloomberg reports that analysts now expect Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) to report net losses through the first quarter of 2009 as home-loan delinquencies rise to the highest on record. The the biggest U.S. mortgage-finance companies report tomorrow and according to estimates will show a loss of 74 cents and 60 cents per share respectively. The losses may be greater than expected as we've seen before analysts underestimating the credit losses. It will not be pretty.
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Polo Ralph Lauren Corporation (NYSE: RL) is engaged in the design, marketing, and distribution of apparel, accessories, home furnishings and fragrances. These are offered under such brand names as Polo Ralph Lauren, Safari, Black Label, Club Monaco and Rugby. The company operates over 300 Ralph Lauren, Club Monaco, and Rugby retail stores, as well as a pair of e-commerce sites. Its products are also carried by upscale and mid-tier department stores. Macy's (NYSE: M) and Dillard's (NYSE: DDS) account for more than a third of all wholesale revenue. Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) are competitors.
The company pleased investors late last month, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of $1.00 and revenues of $1.24 billion. Analysts had been looking for 65 cents and $1.15 billion. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $3.95-$4.05 ($3.97 consensus). Needham subsequently reiterated its "buy" rating on the shares and boosted its price target to $79.
I know, I know, with the economy sputtering, why would you ever want to be invested in an apparel company that produces expensive jeans? Let alone have it recommended by a typically short-selling trader like me! But before I tell you the name of this stock that despite the obvious economic problems -- strong oil, weak housing and the dollar, mounting foreclosure, etc -- is sitting right near all-time highs, looking to break out, let's do a quick rundown of its competitors in the apparel retail space.
Shares of companies like Coach (NYSE: COH) were flying high when more people than ever were flocking to waste their money on stuff they couldn't afford.
Right at the top of the market, predictably, all the lower-end retailers thought they'd get into the act. Gap (NYSE: GPS)'s Banana Republic introduced a high-end line, and so did Coldwater Creek (NASDAQ: CWTR), Cache (NASDAQ: CACH) and AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN). According to the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), the economic downturn gave the companies a strong rebuke. Cache is closing some of its Cache Luxe stores and Coldwater Creek is giving up on its high-end aspirations.
But I don't think it's the economic downturn that doomed these product launches. Luxury clothing is in a tough spot, but it's certainly fared a lot better than upper-middle market companies like Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Coldwater Creek. Rather, I think companies are using a pretty familiar tactic: blame failed strategies on the economy and minimize the impact of tactical errors made by seven-figure executives.
Here's why the strategy failed: taking a brand and raising the quality/price-point is extremely difficult. The reverse is easy, but trying to convince people to pay Coach-like prices for Banana Republic clothing -- even if it's of similar quality -- is a strategy that's destined to fail. Banana Republic has established itself at a certain price point and while people would be thrilled to get the brand at a lower price, most people willing to pay more will want a bona fide luxury label.
In economics, inferior goods are defined as goods that are less in demand as consumers get richer but more in demand as consumers get poorer -- which of course happens when the economy slows down. Inferior goods are often the basic goods and services such as bus rides, potatoes, instant noodles and so on. And with increased demand, the price of such goods, unless regulated, can actually increase in bad times. A recent example of this is the increase in the price of rice (although other forces were at work there as well).
Well, recently we've seen a trend in retail that showcases this clearly -- discount retailers have been performing well relative to most other retailers. When retailers reported same-store sales for the month of April, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT), Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and Costco (NASDAQ: COST) outdid their less fortunate counterparts as they have likely taken customers away from other retailers.
The trend that started a few months ago, with car sales (definitely a normal, not an inferior good) in the U.S. softening overall, has continued and even deepened as consumers have less disposable income after inflation and gas money is taken into account. With credit hard to come by, they have turned to cheaper alternatives. To wit, today Wal-Mart -- my "inferior retailer" -- reported that first-quarter profits rose 6.9%. Conversely, Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) -- the "normal retailer" -- swung to a first-quarter net loss.
To be fair though, it's the top line that matters if I'm looking at consumers' changing habits and there WMT saw a net 10.2% sales increase while LIZ's sales grew by much less during the quarter, 4.9% -- actually, not that bad. Even AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) raised its forecast Monday. Indeed, somehow retail -- excluding auto sales of course -- has managed to hold up quite well recently despite market conditions as today's report indicates. Including autos, though, retail sales declined in April.
So I'm looking at Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and its latest earnings report. I don't currently have a retailer in my portfolio, so I'm thinking to myself, hey, maybe I'll want to buy Liz after I check out its latest numbers. Well, that didn't happen.
Net sales (excluding discontinued operations) dropped 3% for the fourth quarter, and adjusted net income declined dramatically, coming in at $0.20 per diluted share -- last year at this time, the metric was over four times as big at $0.94. For the year, net sales dropped over 1% (excluding discontinued operations), and adjusted net income was $1.30 per diluted share -- yet another huge drop, considering that Liz Claiborne took in $2.99 per diluted share of adjusted net income in 2006. Oh, and there are other things here that will make any prospective investor shudder -- operational cash flow was down, the dividend was stagnant, and the margins weren't anything to write home about. And comps at some of the company's stores have been challenged (Juicy Couture, however, did report a strong 25% increase in comparable sales in the fourth quarter).
This was an easy one for me -- I'll stay away from Liz Claiborne. The company, which competes with the likes of Jones Apparel Group (NYSE: JNY) and Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), currently exists in the land of strategic reviews, cost reductions, and discontinued operations. I don't want to travel to such a land with this particular business.
Disclosure: Steven Mallas owns none of the companies mentioned.
Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) has agreed to sell its Ellen Tracy brand to a group of investors including Radius Partners LLC, William Sweedler of Windsong Brands LLC, Barry Sternlicht and Marvin Traub in cash deal that could reach $42 million -- $27.3 million in cash and an earn-out of up to $15.
Liz Claiborne CEO William McComb said that "Ellen Tracy is an iconic brand, and we are confident that the new owners will invest in this business and give it the care and attention it deserves. We are also thrilled that the substantial majority of Ellen Tracy employees will be retained as part of the deal."
Perhaps Liz's management should have given the decision to acquire the company in the first place more attention. In 2002, the company paid $180 million for Ellen Tracy.
The company's failed effort to diversify its brands aside, there may be reason for optimism now that Liz Claiborne has made the decision to sell non-core brands and focus on the flagship. The signing of design legend Isaac Mizrahi could lead to a major turnaround of the company over the next few years, and investors willing to go against the grain may want to take a look in light of today's pullback.
Marriott International Inc. (NYSE: MAR) fourth quarter earnings fell 20% to $176 million or 46 cents per share, as it took a hit from the closure of its business making cleaner burning coal for tax credits. The company posted revenue of $4.1 billion. Excluding the loss from the discontinued operations, Marriott says it earned $236 million, or 62 cents per share, beating the 62 cents expected by analysts.
UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) on Thursday posted a fourth-quarter net loss -- the first since 1997 -- of $11.28 billion, and a loss for the entire year, due to investments in U.S. subprime mortgages. It said it expected more problems in 2008. The results were inline with previous guidance. UBS shares are down some 5.75% in premarket trading.
Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) said Thursday it created a joint venture to be formed by June with Tata Industries Ltd. to make more than $500 million in aerospace components.
Taser International Inc. (NASDAQ: TASR) reported that fourth-quarter earnings doubled, reaching $4.7 million, or 7 cents a share, on 61% higher revenue. Sales rose to $31 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected a profit of 7 cents per share on $29 million of sales.
AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN), whose colleagues include Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Talbots (NYSE: TLB), reported Q2 earnings stats that beat the views of Wall Street. The retailer said it made $0.54 per share in the second quarter versus $0.51 per share earned in the similar period a year ago. These bottom-line results are on an adjusted basis. According to Reuters, analysts were looking for about $0.49 per share. So that's a nice $0.05 beat.
Shares of
U.S. stock futures were mixed Wednesday ahead of retail sales, import price data and oil inventories reports. Analysts expect retail sales, to be reported at 8:30 a.m., rose 0.5% in July. Futures may find direction after the report. Meanwhile, oil futures rose ahead of the inventory report due out at 10:35 a.m., the dollar fell against some currencies and gold futures rose.
U.S. stock futures were lower Tuesday morning as oil prices continued to decline, with crude 
I know, I know, with the economy sputtering, why would you ever want to be invested in an apparel company that produces expensive jeans? Let alone have it recommended by a typically 
Shares of companies like 
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