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Afternoon trading playbook

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Quint Tatro

While the Philly Fed Numbers's are just about unbelievable, in the real sense of the word, it has been enough to halt the slide at least for now. Regardless of the back and forth, I continue to be sitting on my hands watching as the market discourages those trying to find a shorter term edge. I stand firmly planted in the land of the Swiss, with a thesis that before the next swing tradeable move, Mr. Market will do a great job in depleting as much emotional capital as he can. My one current short in the FlexFolio, Mastercard (NYSE:MA)still looks good and with a stop above 175 still presents some decent risk reward.

Going into the afternoon, I am keeping my eye on CA Incorporated NASDAQ:CA)and FLIR Systems (NASDAQ:FLIR) with alerts to enter short on a break of the day low. If they trigger, my stops will be the day high.

Enjoy the break, don't get caught up in the ticks and keep the emotional capital at highs. We're going to need it soon.

Discover Financial Services beats in Q2 -- buy the stock?

Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), a credit-card company that competes with Visa (NYSE: V), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), and American Express (NYSE: AXP), reported earnings for the second quarter. According to this news summary, Discover beat expectations by posting a loss of $0.18 per share. The market thought that the loss would be as high as $0.29 per share.

If you read the actual press release, you'll see that Discover, on a reported basis, made $0.43 per share. However, we must remember that this profit included an antitrust settlement sourced to Visa and MasterCard. So, once you get rid of that money, you come up with a loss for the quarter.

Continue reading Discover Financial Services beats in Q2 -- buy the stock?

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BAC, ERIC, UNH, WRC

Analyst upgrades:
  • Keefe Bruyette upgraded Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) to Outperform from Market Perform due to valuation and the company's better balance sheet following capital raises. The firm raised its target on shares to $16.50.
  • Merriman upgraded Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ:BCSI) to Buy from Neutral to reflect stabilizing demand and merger synergies from the Packeteer acquisition.
  • Thomas Weisel upgraded Genomic Health (NASDAQ:GHDX) to Overweight from Market Weight based on valuation, a new colon cancer assay expected in 2010, and upside from new sales hires.
  • Plexus (NASDAQ:PLXS) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird.
  • Great Plains Energy (NYSE:GXP) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  • Ericsson (nASDAQ:ERIC) was upgraded at Societe Generale to Buy from Hold.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: BAC, ERIC, UNH, WRC

Closing Bell: Bulls win in the end (DELL, GM, DRYS, LVLT, MA)

Economic data was mixed today. GDP for Q1 was revised to less-bad, but not as much as expected. Confidence was higher in a University of Michigan report, but purchasing manager data in Chicago took an expected dip.

All in all, this was one of those trading days where you had no clue where the market was going to be up or down until the last ten minutes of the day. Fortunately, that was up. The DJIA went negative at least four times today.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA
S&P500
NASDAQ

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: Bulls win in the end (DELL, GM, DRYS, LVLT, MA)

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: INTC, RIMM, BKC, MA, ADBE ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded Cytec Industries (NYSE: CYT) to Buy from Hold on valuation and believes liquidity concerns are overdone. The firm raised its target on the stock to $27 from $20.
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) to Overweight from Equal Weight and raised its price target to $19 from $15. Morgan Stanley's survey indicates positive trends in the business supply chain and the analysts expects estimates to move higher from increased server MPU sales and growth in Windows 7.
  • Pali upgraded Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ: URBN) to Buy from Neutral on valuation and believes the company's tough Q2 compares are already priced into the stock. The firm has a $25 target on shares.
  • Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman.
  • MasterCard (NYSE: MA) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  • Burger King (NYSE: BKC) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: INTC, RIMM, BKC, MA, ADBE ...

Let's give Visa some credit for its Q2 performance

Visa (NYSE: V), whose colleagues include American Express (NYSE: AXP), MasterCard (NYSE: MA), and Discover Financial Services (NYSE: DFS), reported a Q2 profit on Wednesday that was surprisingly strong. On an adjusted basis, earnings came in at 73 cents per share. Analysts were banking on only 64 cents per share, according to Reuters.

Quite frankly, I can see the disparity between Wall Street's thinking and the ultimate reality. I mean, the economy has been bad (to state the obvious), and people aren't spending as much. This means that they aren't using their credit cards like they used to. Ergo, you might expect Visa to post a lower number.

Continue reading Let's give Visa some credit for its Q2 performance

Analyst warns Visa, MasterCard could be smacked by swine flu

Pork producers aren't the only stocks getting hammered by swine flu fears. Brokerage JPMorgan observed today that "concerns over the swine flu outbreak could weigh on MasterCard Inc. (NYSE: MA - option chain) / Visa Inc. (NYSE: V - option chain) shares due to fears that cross-border fees may suffer from reduced cross-border travel related to the virus," sending shares of both companies lower at the sound of the opening bell.

Although JPMorgan added that it's too early to tell what impact the swine flu will have on MasterCard and Visa, the firm asserted that "the risk is worth monitoring in our view."

Continue reading Analyst warns Visa, MasterCard could be smacked by swine flu

MasterCard remains a premier brand

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable, global trend as a support. And this in mind, MasterCard (NYSE: MA) is worth a review.

The market sell-off and tumult of 2008 spared almost no stocks, and MasterCard took a beating, as well, with investors driving shares down to the $120-range from $320.

Continue reading MasterCard remains a premier brand

MasterCard CEO eyes investments in China, Brazil

While most companies are taking steps to conserve cash, the CEO of MasterCard Incorporated (NYSE: MA) is pondering an overseas spending spree.

In a recent Reuters interview, President and Chief Executive Robert Selander expressed his willingness to ramp up MasterCard's investment in emerging markets, including high-profile countries such as Brazil and China.

"We are making investments in some of the emerging markets where we continue to see growth. We will probably increase some of those investments as the relative growth rate in those markets is better than some of our more mature and struggling economies," Selander told the news service.

Continue reading MasterCard CEO eyes investments in China, Brazil

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: VZ, T, GT, RIO, XRX, MA ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded WebMD (NASDAQ: WBMD) shares to Buy from Hold on valuation following the company's Q4 results and outlook. The firm maintains a $25 target on the stock.
  • Goldman upgraded Verizon (NYSE: VZ) and AT&T (NYSE: T) to Buy from Neutral based on valuation and expectations for 2010 earnings growth.
  • Roth upgraded Maxwell Tech (NASDAQ: MXWL) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q4 results to reflect strong ultracapacitor sales growth and gross margin improvement. The firm maintains a $12 target on the stock.
  • Nara Bancorp (NASDAQ: NARA) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Friedman Billings.
  • Cubic (NYSE: CUB) was upgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
  • Terex (NYSE: TEX) was lifted to Outperform from Market Perform at Wachovia.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: VZ, T, GT, RIO, XRX, MA ...

Not taking the MasterCard trade: Priceless

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Smita Sadana.

On 2/2, a trading buddy asked me if I would short MasterCard (MA); reason being that financials are looking weak and MA has reached 50-day moving average which could act as a possible resistance and might turn the stock down.

My reply was a unequivocal NO, I wouldn't short MA. Here were the reasons.

1) Financials are weak, down 11% from the high; but notice that MA has not given way. Reaching 50-day moving average is another sign of strength. I don't engage in horse racing, but placing a bet that a strong horse among a group of weak horses will lose, didn't seem right to me!

Continue reading Not taking the MasterCard trade: Priceless

Stocks in the news: CSCO, BRK.A, V, F, TM, K, MA, WMT, DELL ...

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) reported earnings Wednesday after close, beating estimates, but warning that incoming orders declined dramatically -- 20% -- in January. For the quarter, Cisco reported earnings of 32 cents per share excluding items, beating the average analyst estimate by 2 cents. CSCO shares declined 3.4% in premarket trading.

Swiss Reinsurance Co. will get a capital injection of $2.6 billion from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) after warning investors it expects to lose $869 million for the full year. The investment will pay a 12% coupon and could convert into a stake of more than 20% in the company.

Continue reading Stocks in the news: CSCO, BRK.A, V, F, TM, K, MA, WMT, DELL ...

Options Update: Costco volatility low after EPS warning; COST, TGT, MA

Costco (NASDAQ: COST) is recently trading at $43.55 in pre-open trading, below its close of $46.12. COST warned Q2 EPS will be substantially below analysts' 70 cents consensus estimates. COST February option implied volatility is at 35; March is at 41; below its 26-week average of 44, according to Track Data's suggesting decreasing price movement.

Target (NYSE: TGT) closed at $32.11. TGT is expected to report Q4 EPS in late February. TGT February option implied volatility is at 67, March is at 68; below a level of 78 from January 25 and near above its 26-week average of 67, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Continue reading Options Update: Costco volatility low after EPS warning; COST, TGT, MA

The week in preview: High hopes for MasterCard, Avon, Aflac, Northrop Grumman

If you've been watching earnings this past week, or if you read last week's Week in Preview, then this coming week may leave you feeling a bit like Bill Murray in Groundhog's Day. That is, again analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect earnings declines to be more frequent and deeper than earnings gains.

Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT), Dow Chemical Co. (NYSE: DOW), Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: APC), IAC Interactivecorp (NASDAQ: IACI), Moody's Corp. (NYSE: MCO), Elizabeth Arden Inc. (NASDAQ: RDEN), Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN), Diebold Inc. (NYSE: DBD), Tyco International Ltd. (NYSE: TYC), United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. (NYSE: RL), ITT Corp. (NYSE: ITT), and Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week, and they're all expected to report double-digit declines in earnings.

But again this week, let's take a look who Wall Street feels may have done well in the past quarter.

Continue reading The week in preview: High hopes for MasterCard, Avon, Aflac, Northrop Grumman

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CNX, MA, CAT, MHS ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Citigroup upgraded shares of Consol Energy (NYSE: CNX) to Buy from Hold following the company's lowered guidance as 2009 is fully contracted with a 26% price increase. The firm raised its target to $40 from $38.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Buy from Hold on valuation as it thinks the sell-off on the company's Q4 miss and cautious guidance is overdone.
  • Wachovia upgraded Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX) to Outperform from Market Perform because the firm thinks the outlook of the company's two main markets is improving. The firm believes the company's valuation is attractive. Thomas Weisel upgraded Boston Scientific to Overweight from Market Weight citing valuation and improving fundamentals.
  • Goldman added MasterCard (NYSE: MA) to the Conviction Buy List.
  • Accuray (NASDAQ: ARAY) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  • KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.

Continue reading Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: CNX, MA, CAT, MHS ...

Next Page »

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-223.328,280.74
NASDAQ-49.201,796.52
S&P 500-26.91896.42

Last updated: July 04, 2009: 02:04 AM

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