TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the guys at the top don't know what they're doing, and it shows.

AIG's (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) making everyone's life difficult today. That's in part because AIG had been the biggest proponent of "super senior," meaning they repeatedly said that their collateralized debt obligation (CDO) exposure was of the kind that was intelligent, measured and thoughtful. They talked endlessly about how their due diligence made the difference and that unlike all of the other buyers, they kicked the tires three times and never bought the plain ol' CDOs. Then they brought in professors from Wharton to be sure that even if all heck broke loose and they were being too aggressive, they would be hedged.

They also were the first to give you the percentages of how much could go bad and that even in the worst-case scenario, they were overcapitalized. And, most important, they were insurers, no need to mark to market, they can play it all out.

Plus, they touted their own struggles. They made the point that because of the turmoil at the top, they hadn't bought any bad stuff and stopped buying residential real estate products after 2005. What they did buy -- they assured us in that big teach-in dog-and-pony show in December -- was the extra-special nature of their particular buys and that, unlike everyone else, risk officers scrutinized every single piece of paper that went into their super senior insurance, meaning only the top-top part of a CDO-squared, the part where everything had to default ahead of it; they made a point of how impossible that would be.

Stock futures were once again lower this morning, setting up stocks for a sharp decline after AIG reported a big $7.8 billion loss and oil set a record above $125 a barrel. With credit crunch concerns resurfacing and inflation worries on investors' minds, futures point to heavy losses today.

On Thursday, U.S. stocks ended higher despite another surge in oil prices following better-than-expected April sales reports from many retailers including Wal-Mart and Costco. The Dow industrials ended 52 points, or 0.41%, higher, the S&P 500 rose 5 points, or 0.37% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 12 points, or 0.52%.

Without much economic news set for today except for the March U.S. trade gap, investors will focus on AIG's results and their implication on the financial and credit market as well as on oil prices.

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) reported a quarterly $7.8 billion loss after the market close Thursday. AIG also said it will raise $12.5 billion in the coming months as its capital base has deteriorated due to the crisis in the credit markets. Shares of AIG have declined over 7.2% in premarket trading, but the real affect of its results can seen across the financials as fears have resurfaced once again about the impact of the credit crunch on financial firms.

As if that was not enough, adding to the negative sentiment is oil. Crude oil for June delivery climbed as much as $1.43, or 1.3%, to $125.12 a barrel. While prices have retreated somewhat, they remained near $125 at around $124.8 a barrel. For the week, oil has risen 7.4%, making Wall Street nervous about inflation. Mind you, 55%of 372 petroleum industry executives surveyed by KPMG LLP said they think the price of a barrel of crude will drop below $100 by the end of the year.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the exchange rate plus massive undervaluations make the great brands prime targets.

There's always been a groupthink in Europe about currencies. The companies that want to buy American companies have, at times, seemed to care more about the currency, or at least not buying a company in a country whose currency is in decline, than they care about the actual target.

That's what it looks like now that a large German company and now a large Italian company have decided to start splurging. It is no coincidence that Deutsche Tel (NYSE: DT) (Cramer's Take) and Finmeccanica are exploring Sprint (NYSE: S) (Cramer's Take) and DRS (NYSE: DRS) (Cramer's Take). These companies are selling for something like 40% off for those bearing euros, and neither potential acquirer has debt problems or subprime issues, so the deals don't have big borrowing problems.

That's what I am thinking about when I see the better-than-expected figures today from Unilever (NYSE: UL) (Cramer's Take) and the other day from Nestle. These companies are part of that same groupthink. They are looking, no doubt, at a Heinz (NYSE: HNZ) (Cramer's Take) and thinking, "Wait, that's about a $10 billion company that's a global leader."

U.S. stock futures were higher early Thursday morning as investors digested Toyota's earnings and awaited sales reports from several large retailers.

This is after on Wednesday, U.S. stocks dropped as oil futures surged past $123 a barrel and financials showed more weakness. The Dow industrials fell 206 points, or 1.59%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 44 points, or 1.80%, and the S&P 500 dropped 25 points, or 1.81%.

But today stocks looked set to recover from the previous session large pull back. While Toyota's results show the automaker also struggling in the U.S. market, a stronger dollar may have helped boost sentiment. Investors also expect April retail sales to be strong rising about 1.5% to 2% due to an extra selling day and warmer weather at the beginning of the month.

Not much economic data is due today, only weekly initial jobless claims and March wholesale inventories.

Also on the docket today is a vote the housing aid bill, the Democrats' plan to help strapped homeowners refinance into government-backed mortgages. Already blamed by many for not doing enough to address the crisis, President Bush will likely veto the measures.

As you saw in a Market tankola note earlier, today can be blamed on oil or many other things. But the charts are likely the real culprit as old resistance levels didn't hold as the new support levels. The bears may have gotten an upper hand for a while if today's sentiment holds.

To top it off, worker productivity data came out strong enough today that it might even allow companies to make more layoffs. Below are the unofficial closing bell prices today:

• DJIA 12,814.35 (-206.48; -1.59%)
• S&P500 1,392.56 (-25.70; -1.81%)
• NASDAQ 2,438.49 (-44.82; -1.80%)
• 10YR-TBond 3.867% (-0.026)
• 52-WEEK LOWS.
• TOP 10 ANALYST CALLS

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) beat Street estimates for earnings Tuesday with $1.77 billion in net income, or $0.29 EPS, a 5.4% drop from first quarter 2007. Sales of $9.79 billion beat estimates of $9.75 million. Cisco gave 2008 guidance that met expectations as demand for Cisco's costly networking systems may still be slow during the economic slowdown. Shares fell 2% to $25.78 despite being positive earlier this morning.

A funny thing happened this afternoon, but it won't be funny to the bulk of investors. Late this afternoon, the frustration and panic started setting in. You can blame a lot of it on many things, but the real fault may be the charts. The DJIA was off 165 points to 12,855.71 and the S&P 500 was off even worse, down 20.59 at 1,397.67.

The market sell-off was small early on but then reached certain sell levels that had been prior resistance levels on the way up. These numbers have been rounded for ease:
When the S&P 500 didn't hold right at 1,410.00, that added more pressure. Then, when 1,405.00 didn't hold, it added on another wave of sellers, and now 1,400 will act as a stead line of resistance, maybe beyond today. But it sure looks like we just lost the first cushion and moved out of that S&P up-trend after the 1,400 level was violated.

Was there news? Sure. Word came today that one of the suicide bombers in Iraq had been a Guantanamo POW; we also got word of an earthquake in Japan. But that darned dinosaur water, or black gold, just won't quit rising even when you get news that looks like it could fall. Today's higher oil inventories didn't do anything to stop the climb in oil prices and they rose $1.68 to $123.51 per barrel .

Many of these market whips come and go, but it sure looks like the pessimists and the bears just got the upper hand over the bulls today.

The stock market was down without much conviction in the early going with the DJIA off 40 to 50 points. But someone must have pulled the plug somewhere as it has been dropping fast from about 2 p.m. and the Dow was down over 180 points as I pecked away at the keyboard.

What the heck changed overall market sentiment so suddenly? Some say it's oil prices drifting higher. That's always a good scapegoat and probably has something to do with it. It might also be a connected issue with the raging conflicts in the middle east and Africa.

There is always the negative sentiment about housing, employment, last night's democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina just muddling on. It might also be our current president just muddling on, or it might just be that all of these things just prompted some profit taking after weeks of appreciation.

Maybe it is my pal Warren's negative sentiment about the financial sector and the years of pain that may still need to be worked out of the system. Whatever it is you can be sure that after the market closes the Wall Street pundits will discuss all their presumptions as if they were facts...

UPDATE: The DJIA closed at 12,814.35 down -206.48, or -1.59%

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says natural gas producers are having a great year, and Anadarko may be the best of the bunch.

Marcellus Shale. Ghana. Brazil. Wherever the oil and gas is. Wherever the chances to boost output.

That's Anadarko (NYSE: APC) (Cramer's Take).

Fifteen percent growth or higher for many years. That's Anadarko.

Creating value for shareholders. That's Anadarko.

IPO of Western Gas. That's Anadarko.

And more important, it is not ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take).

Anadarko is one of six companies, including Apache (NYSE: APA) (Cramer's Take), Southwestern (NYSE: SWN) (Cramer's Take), XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO) (Cramer's Take), Chesapeake (NYSE: CHK) (Cramer's Take) and Devon (NYSE: DVN) (Cramer's Take) (El Paso (NYSE: EP) (Cramer's Take) is threatening to join them!) that are believers.

U.S. stock futures were lower early Wednesday as investors, worried about inflation, await data on pending home sales and labor costs. Earnings news in focus this morning comes from tech bellwether Cisco Systems, which gave a cautious outlook, and from Walt Disney, which reported good results.

After that, weekly crude inventories are scheduled to be reported. Crude futures have held up near $122 a barrel despite the dollar advancing against the yen and the euro.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says Filo and Yang own less than 10% of Yahoo! shares, so they can stall a deal but not stop it.

Two guys with less than 10% of the shares outstanding blocked this Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) (Cramer's Take) deal -- Jerry Yang and David Filo. I understand this logic. They are founders. They probably hate Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take). They feel tremendous pride. They think that surrendering to Microsoft would be like giving in to the Evil Empire.

But if they felt that, they should never have brought the company public. Once you are public you are for sale, either in pieces or all together, unless you have one of those travesty two-classes-of-stock configurations that I think shouldn't even be allowed and have almost always been disappointing.

So what happens? I think the stock acted very well yesterday. It should have been down more. I think what happened is that arbs looked at the holders and realized that if they bought up enough stock that was for sale they could force a sale or a new board of directors. Might take a year, but if you can buy something at $24 and sell it at $34 a year from now, well, let's just say that is a big win.

Stock futures were lower early Tuesday morning as oil prices remained high offsetting any recent optimism about the economy in light of Monday's surprise expansion in the service sector. Several companies are also reporting earnings today and will be in focus.

U.S. stocks dropped on Monday after Microsoft withdrew its takeover bid for Yahoo and as commodity prices once again spiked. The Dow industrials lost 88 points, or 0.68%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 12 points, or 0.52%, and the S&P 500 lost 6 points, or 0.45%.

Without much economic news today, no doubt investors will have no choice but to focus on the high oil prices. After setting a record close Monday and hitting a new trading high of $120.93 a barrel Tuesday, crude retreated to $119.88, down 9 cents from Monday's close. It is interesting that just as hopes were growing the slowdown of the US economy may not be as deep and long as originally thought, crude prices surge again, concerning investors about inflation and profits once again.

The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers shows consumer sentiment at a 26-year low: "The April result is the lowest since March 1982's level of 62.0., when the "stagflationary" period of low growth and high inflation was still an issue for many Americans."

But is that a bad thing? A quick look at history shows that it probably isn't. The last time consumer sentiment was this low was right before the beginning of the longest bull-run in history. The best book on that era is called Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust: 1982-2004. The chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average performance during 1980-2000 pretty much tells the story. See the little divot on the far left side? Yeah, that was 1982.

So don't get too depressed about consumer weakness. The last time things looked this bad, they ended up working out better than ever. And anyone who sold on the scary headlines regretted it very quickly.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says there's some reason for caution, but no reason to get out of the market here.

There all right there. Don't you feel it? Hundreds of stocks at resistance. Hundreds have formed a nice base. The Transports and the Dow are moving in synch. The earnings period surprisingly great, with so many companies not stung by the raw costs. Three straight up weeks, with all the commodity stocks showing signs of rolling over; most at crucial "must hold" levels except for gold, which has already crashed, making the inflation case much dimmer in the eyes of the traders.

Yet, you simply can't read the papers. They are too awful. The cost to the consumers for everything from food to gasoline is humongous and going higher, according to all the food execs I had on last week. We are getting nowhere near a bottom in housing. The layoffs, while not significant in the Labor Report on Friday, sure seem endless. The two major presidential candidates from the Democratic side want to tax the oil companies into oblivion, the leaders of the last year. Exxon (NYSE: XOM) (Cramer's Take) blew the quarter. So did GE (NYSE: GE) (Cramer's Take).

Too far, too fast, based on those grim items.

To me, this is the first week since the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take) bottom that I think seems aimless.

But perhaps there's a "split the difference" way to approach this week: options expiration.

As one who was greatly embarrassed by making a premature recommendation (being kind) that investors give consideration to acquiring shares in IndyMac Bancorp (NYSE: IMB) prior to its dramatic collapse; I can ill afford to suggest that folks jump in now. However, I might just do that.

Yesterday IndyMac jumped about 20% as it was reported that CEO says IndyMac has 'turned a corner' finishing the day at $3.97 a share -- still a long way from its 52-week high of $37.50. "Given the decline in our stock price, some people have questioned IndyMac's survivability in the current environment," Chief Executive Michael Perry said. "I am here to tell you that I believe we have turned a corner and that our business is improving. We are now achieving profitability with this new production model, with all of our nine regional wholesale centers and 104 of our 152 retail lending branches being profitable in March," Perry said.

The message is clear from the top, with negative earnings and corresponding negative P/E ratio just about any turnaround would make this stock cheap. Perry is correct that the stock is priced for failure. What should the price be if Perry gets IMB back to profitability by the end of the year? A lot more than it is now.

The stock moved way up at the opening bell this morning trading to $4.20, so there are a lot of investors who share my view ... and then it traded down, so then again...

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of IMB.

This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.