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Reason #4 to Short the U.S.: The Banks

Reason #4 to short the U.S. -- The banksBanks are the kink between the financial markets and the Main Street economy. They are also the lubricant -- when they are lending -- of a growing economy.

Using time-honored but now discarded accounting standards, U.S. banks, as a group, are insolvent. They are hoarding cash because deep in the recesses of little offices, they know they will be exposed as insolvent if they have to dump toxic assets on the market. They are also looking at reduced activity due to the economy and new taxes and regulations, and therefore lower profits. And when the Fed raises interest rates, their spreads will contract, also hitting profits.

Continue reading Reason #4 to Short the U.S.: The Banks

Five Reasons to Short the U.S.

5 reasons to short the U.S.I love my country: the chaos, the hurly-burly of democracy, the hard work of quiet people and the great, big heart as shown by our private donations to Haiti at a time of near 20% unemployment and underemployment. We forgive wayward politicians and athletes, let our children make more decisions than virtually any people on Earth and we stand for something -- a true city on a hill. But right now, that city is in political chaos ... and pretty broke.

Although, I don't like to say it, it is time to short the United States.

Continue reading Five Reasons to Short the U.S.

What Do Earnings from the Big Banks Signal for the Economy?

Banks have seen a hectic couple of days' of trading, thanks to a bevy of news. I thought it may be good to take a look at some earnings results from a few of the banks, and what it could mean for the economy going forward.

First, let's look at the earnings:
  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM): earnings of 74 cents per share; expectations for 60 cents per share
  • Citigroup (C): a loss of six cents per share; expectations for a loss of 33 cents per share
  • Goldman Sachs (GS): earnings of $8.20 per share; expectations for earnings of $5.20

Continue reading What Do Earnings from the Big Banks Signal for the Economy?

Before the Bell: Stocks Headed for a Mixed Start

U.S. stock futures were mixed Friday morning as investors mulled results from General Electric and others, and focused on the effects President Obama's plan to overhaul Wall Street would have on banks.

On Thursday, Wall Street suffered one of the worst day in month after the Obama administration announced a proposal to increase regulation on the financial industry. Despite several strong earnings, concerns over China's efforts to curb lending, a surprise increase in jobless claims and a drop in manufacturing amounted to the Dow industrials sinking 213 points, or 2%. The broader S&P 500 lost 1.9% and the Nasdaq composite tumbled 1.1%.

Continue reading Before the Bell: Stocks Headed for a Mixed Start

Goldman Sachs Not In Demand After Q4 Report

One of the true icons of finance, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), issued its Q4 report this morning. The stock has been weak off the numbers; at the time of this writing, shares were down well over 5%, and volume was very active. Looking through the press release, I didn't come away as bearish as the market. Then again, the session as a whole was rather choppy, so perhaps overall sentiment was exerting an influence. Still, a 5% sell-off is notable.

Let's look at some highlights. For the fourth quarter, Goldman, whose colleagues include JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS), made $8.20 per share. Last year at this time, the company reported a loss of $4.97 per share. Besides improving year-over-year, per-share profit increased over 50% on a sequential basis as well. According to Earnings.com, $5.20 was the number to beat.

Continue reading Goldman Sachs Not In Demand After Q4 Report

Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: ADS, CL, DWA, MON, MS, SBUX, WFC ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • FBR Capital upgraded Wells Fargo (WFC) to market perform from underperform and raised its target on shares to $26 from $21 following the company's better-than-expected quarter.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Starbucks (SBUX) to buy from hold following the company's better-than-expected Q1 results. The firm raised its target price on shares to $30 from $19.
  • UBS upgraded Dreamworks (DWA) to buy from neutral, citing upside from its upcoming film releases. The firm raised its target to $50 from $35.
  • Colgate (CL) was upgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
  • F5 Networks (FFIV) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
  • Applied Industrial (AIT) was upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Stephens.

Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: ADS, CL, DWA, MON, MS, SBUX, WFC ...

Morgan Stanley Earnings Preview: Another Quarterly Profit Coming?

Morgan Stanley (MS), one of the world's top investment banks, is scheduled to discuss its fourth-quarter 2009 financial results in a conference call Wednesday, Jan. 20, at 11:00 AM (ET), which will include CEO James Gorman. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

During the three months that ended in December, the New York-based firm launched its Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management initiative, saw management changes and declared a quarterly dividend. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for Morgan Stanley to report earnings of $0.36 per share, compared to loss of $2.34 per share a year ago and earnings of $0.27 in the third quarter. Fourth-quarter revenue is expected to total $7.8 billion.

Continue reading Morgan Stanley Earnings Preview: Another Quarterly Profit Coming?

The Week in Preview: Q4 Earnings Expectations for the Financial Sector

Last week, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) led off the coming parade of earnings from the big banks when it reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year earnings, though its revenue fell short of estimates.

Plenty more earnings from the financial sector are due out this week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate fourth-quarter earnings growth from American Express Co. (AXP), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (BK), Hudson City Bancorp Inc. (HCBK), SLM Corp. (SLM) and US Bancorp (USB).

Continue reading The Week in Preview: Q4 Earnings Expectations for the Financial Sector

Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: BA, BMY, EAT, INTC, MS, UNH, WYNN ...

Analyst Upgrades

  • Baird upgraded Intel (INTC) to outperform from neutral and has a $26 target on the stock. The firm's checks indicate tier-one PC OEMs have raised their 1H10 procurement forecasts, which could lead to Intel outperformance.
  • Citigroup upgraded UnitedHealth (UNH) to buy from hold on expectations the company will benefit from a sector rotation into Managed Care in 2010. The firm raised its price target on shares to $39 from $30.
  • UBS upgraded Morgan Stanley (MS) to buy from neutral based on strong capital and liquidity positions, building investment banking pipelines, and expectations for a turn in EPS/ROE, among other reasons.
  • Deutsche Bank upgraded the U.S. Refining group as it believes demand is improving and margins could expand in 2010. The firm raised its rating on Sunoco (SUN) to hold from sell and its target on shares to $25 from $18, and upgraded Tesoro (TSO) and Frontier Oil (FTO) to buy from hold.
  • Boeing (BA) was raised to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN) was upgraded at UBS to buy from neutral.
  • Investors Bancorp (ISBC) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Janney Montgomery.

Continue reading Analyst Upgrades, Downgrades and Initiations: BA, BMY, EAT, INTC, MS, UNH, WYNN ...

Solyndra: Hot Cleantech Company Looks for an IPO

While cleantech seems poised to be a huge growth opportunity, the fact is that IPO investors have been somewhat skeptical. Just last week, the thin film panel maker, Trony Solar Holdings, pulled its public offering.

But, this is not stopping other cleantech companies from trying. For example, Solyndra has filed for an IPO.

Continue reading Solyndra: Hot Cleantech Company Looks for an IPO

Morgan Stanley's CEO skips bonus -- again

Nobody expected bonus season to be comfortable, even with the financial crisis more than a year in the rear-view mirror. Yet, Goldman Sachs (GS) is getting sued over its compensation package, under which key executives are only compensated in long-term stock. In the latest development, John Mack, CEO of Morgan Stanley (MS), is skipping his bonus for the third year in a row, according to Reuters.

Mack isn't the first banking CEO to go sans bonus this year. Kenneth Lewis, top dog over at Bank of America (BAC) is getting neither a salary nor a bonus for 2009. Both plan to step down at the end of the year, though Mack will stick around Morgan Stanley as chairman. The last time Mack got a bonus was in 2006: he picked up $36.2 million in restricted shares.

Continue reading Morgan Stanley's CEO skips bonus -- again

Where to Get Rich? Morgan Stanley Says 'Mobile Internet'

In the current doom and gloom environment, it's hard to think that growth will ever come back. Well, for those who feel this way, they may want to take a look at a massive report from Morgan Stanley's (MS) Mary Meeker. Yes, she was the same person who penned the highly influential "The Internet Report" in 1995, which became the bible for the dot-com revolution.

In her latest report -- which is 424 pages -- Meeker says that the "mobile Internet" is the next big thing. Within the next five years, she thinks that more users will access the Net from mobile devices than desktops. Some of the main drivers include 3G and 4G broadband networks, VOIP, online video and even social networking. What's more, the mobile Internet will go beyond just smartphones but be used in cars, manufacturing systems and so on.

Continue reading Where to Get Rich? Morgan Stanley Says 'Mobile Internet'

Friendster to sell for $100 million

Does anyone remember Friendster? For about ten minutes seven years ago, it was the hottest thing in social networking. The site that effectively kicked off the social media movement didn't stay in vogue long, however, eventually riding a wave of user referrals to Asia. Meanwhile, MySpace, Facebook and Twitter came along, taking over the sector -- and the hype that comes with it.

Well, Friendster is worth something to somebody, it seems. The company is due to be sold at the end of the month for $100 million. The social networking service is tops in Asia, which is where more than half of its 100 million-strong user base can be found.

Continue reading Friendster to sell for $100 million

Cramer on BloggingStocks: U.S. banks unlike European counterparts

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the futures suggest U.S. banks will trade in lock step with Europe, but he believes that linkage will be broken.

So, we're more Europe than Asia? We have more characteristics of the ailing lenders to Dubai World than to the trade kings of the Pacific?

That's what I think about when I look how our futures declined in lock step with Europe after rising in lock step with Asia last night.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: U.S. banks unlike European counterparts

Tech IPO comeback: $50 billion in 2010?

Tech sector IPOs surged by a factor of five in terms of value from 2008 to 2009. A mere $749.2 million raised in 2008 jumped to $3.8 million so far this year, according to data from Thomson Reuters. In 2008, only three went public, while 10 tech companies made the plunge in 2009. And, expectations are even higher for 2010.

Paul Bard, a research analyst at Renaissance Capital, forecasts between 40 and 50 tech industry IPOs next year, in which $4 billion to $5 billion in capital would be raised. "We've been expecting an uptick in technology because it has really been underrepresented in the market over the last few years," says Bard. The IPO market for high-tech companies was strong in 2007, but it seized up along with virtually every other form of capital raising when the financial crisis erupted in 2008.

Continue reading Tech IPO comeback: $50 billion in 2010?

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+150.2510,058.64
NASDAQ+24.822,150.87
S&P 500+13.781,070.52

Last updated: February 09, 2010: 09:29 PM

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