When UK mortgage lender HBOS Plc went to market to raise capital, the outcome was a bust. The company sold only about 8% of the securities. In the end, HBOS's underwriters -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Dresdner Kleinwort Ltd. -- were stuck with $7.6 billion in unwanted paper.
In light of this, it's going to be tough for UK financial institutions to bolster their balance sheets. But there is an alternative: private equity.
In fact, it looks like The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) is taking a look at Paragon, a UK mortgage lender. It appears that Paragon is opening up its books to engage in some initial due diligence.
Of course, this is still nascent, and deals can easily fall apart, especially in tough markets. However, investors are certainly excited. In London trading, Paragon's shares spiked 23%.
Even so, the value of Paragon is still down 87% over the past year, so it should be no surprise that the private equity folks sense opportunity.
HBOS Plc is the largest mortgage operator in the UK. And yes, it needs lots of money to shore up its balance sheet.
Unfortunately, raising capital has turned out to be an extremely tough task.
When HBOS engaged in a rights offering, only about 8% of outside investors subscribed. As a result, the company's underwriters -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Dresdner Kleinwort Ltd. -- are now stuck with $7.6 billion in unwanted securities.
Since this was a firm commitment offering, HBOS was able to get its much-needed cash.
However, the problem is that this deal is likely to chill further investment in the UK banking sector. After all, who would want to take on the risk?
Thus, while there may be more capital infusions from private equity firms, which have large amounts of capital, no doubt their term sheets are likely to be quite onerous.
M&A activity is heading for the dust bin. The should put additional pressure on the earnings of big Wall St. banks and brokerages. According to the FT," KPMG's Global M&A Predictor – an index that looks at 1,000 companies and the ratio of their share price to earnings – is forecasting a decrease in both appetite and capacity of companies to make deals."
The major reason for a potential shift in M&A sentiment is the failing P&L prospects of many companies as the economy falls under more and more pressure. Who wants to buy a company which is likely to do poorly?
Short-term, the real burden of the fall-off in deals will be investment banking operations. With the financial fortunes of many firms like Lehman (NYSE:LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) already in enough trouble to cause worries about whether they can stay independent, losing most of their fees for merger advisory service comes at an especially hard time.
When it rains, it pours.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Morgan Stanley raised its overweight position on global emerging market equities to 6% from 2%, according toMarketWatch.
HSBC upgraded Morgan Stanly (NYSE:MS) to "overweight" from "equal weight", according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Caris initiated First Solar (NASDAQ:FSLR) as a "buy."
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the $330 billion auction rate securities (ARS) scandal, which since February has frozen the funds of investors who thought they were getting a low risk place to park their cash, has finally generated its first criminal probe. The charge is that two Credit Suisse brokers lied "to investors about how they placed their money into short-term securities."
I have been following the ARS scandal since February when I first became aware of the situation. Since then, my post has generated 5,036 comments from people whose money has been frozen thanks to the collapse of the weekly auctions that were intended to set the yields on these municipal bonds. These commenters are trying to team up to figure out how best to get back their money.
The Journal reports that the Justice Department's U.S. attorney's office for New York's Eastern District, represents the first known criminal matter stemming from the crumbling ARS market. Up until then, the lawsuits were of a civil nature -- seeking class-action status and more than 80 individual arbitration claims. But a criminal probe based on lying could result in cash damages and jail terms for these brokers.
Late last year, when the IPO market was much stronger, Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) sold a piece of its MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MXB) division to the public. Investors were certainly eager for the deal as the price range increased from $14-$16 to $16-$18. The stock price ultimately reached as high as $38.40.
But today, things got a little rougher. Morgan Stanley said its going to unload half its position in MSCI.
No doubt, with the credit crunch, there has been a flurry of asset sales. And MSCI is a solid asset, which includes a broad portfolio of financial data products like indices (more than 100,000) and major brands such as Barra.
What's more, MSCI reported its Q2 results today. Operating revenues spiked 21.9% to $108.2 million and adjusted EBITDA was up 43.4% to $48 million (yes, this is a high-margin business).
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The U.S. Brokers sector, Goldman Sachs and Research in Motion were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded U.S. Brokers to Neutral from Attractive since they can not find a catalyst to move the group significantly higher over the next few months given the continued deterioration in fundamentals. Goldman added Citigroup (NYSE:C) to their Conviction Sell List as they expect additional write-downs of $8.9B in Q2 and see the potential for additional capital raises. Goldman lowered their target price on Citigroup shares to $16 and recommends a pair trade of long Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), short Citigroup.
Wachovia downgraded Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) shares to Market Perform from Outperform on renewed economic fears, a likely slower pace of substantial capital raises, seasonally slower prime brokerage, and valuation.
Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities following the weaker-than-expected Q1 report and guidance and lowered FY09 EPS estimates on increased spending.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Red Hat (NYSE:RHT) was downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight at Thomas Weisel.
The Wall Street Journal's "The Game" column speculates that one of the results of the Bear Stearns crash could be the push of investment banks and commercial ones closer together, which could result in better handling of volatility with more stability. Some observers think Merrill Lynch & Co (NYSE: MER), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) or The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) could go that route by buying a commercial bank. Any move would force them to adhere to better reserve ratios, affect short term bank funding, and shrink balance sheets.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will soon make available a new service that measure hits on the Internet with the intent of helping advertisers decide where to buy ads online and would directly compete with comScore Inc (NASDAQ: SCOR) and Nielsen Online. Ad executives said Google's method could make targeting markets more efficient.
A Manhattan judge dismissed four claims made by American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) in its fight to regain control of a block of its shares held by Starr International, a company that once founded a lucrative compensation plan for AIG executives. AIG believes the shares held by Starr should continue to be used to fund employee compensation, the Financial Times reported.
WEB SITES:
According to Scorpio Partnership, Bloomberg reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Merrill Lynch had slower growth in assets under management last year due to losses connected to the U.S. subprime crisis.
Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER), at least according to rumors running amok on trading floors, may issue a profit warning and take additional writedowns on its mortgage holdings. MER shares plunged over 5.5% as a result.
I always cringe a bit when I hear of trading floor rumors. Like it or not, traders have a vested interest so it's harder for me to take what they say at face value. Much different than when newspapers report without naming sources. At least there, I'd like to believe, journalistic standards should prevail.
Indeed, while Reuters says that "A Merrill spokeswoman declined to comment on the rumors," CNBC says that sources told it the U.S. broker "is not preparing to issue a profit warning Friday."
With $30 billion worth of writedowns under its belt, it's not difficult to believe that Merrill will indeed require additional writedowns, capital raising, or asset sales. Especially in light of what's been happening the last few weeks. Not only did peers Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) -- down 4% -- and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) -- down 3.5% -- posted weak results this week, but financials in general announced one writedown, or capital raise, one asset sale after another.
Indeed, analysts have been cutting their forecast on financials these days, including Merrill. If a month ago analysts had predicted earnings of 44 cents a share, today the average estimate runs at 16 cents a share.
So-called chatter can have its own agenda among traders so I'm wary of such unsubstantiated rumors. Yet, in this case, its more than likely such a warning would be out sooner or later. Just look at what Citigroup (NYSE: C) -- down 3.6% -- said Thursday.
Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) is having such trouble that it will lay-off another 1,200 people.
According toReuters, "In an e-mail, Washington Mutual said it was cutting jobs that support its home lending unit, centralizing some support functions, and focusing on 'mission-critical activities.'" The announcement was part of a cascade of tough news for financial companies.
Not only have Lehman (NYSE: LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) posted poor results, but Citigroup (NYSE:C) said its expected more write-offs through the end of the year. The head of hedge fund Paulson & Co. expects total losses at banks to hit $1.3 trillion, with two-thirds of it yet to come.
Short interest in most large financial companies moved up sharply in the period ending June 15. Shares short in Wachovia (NYSE: WB) moved up 26.2 million to 177.4 million. Short interest in Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) jumped 18.2 million to 82.7 million.
Most of this means that bank, brokerage and insurance shares could be much lower at the end of 2008. Many already trade at 52-week lows, but if losses mount, they will have to raise more money, and that means dilution.
Citigroup trades for under $20 in premarket action. As a bellwether for the industry, who would be surprised to see it at $10?
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) F2Q08 Earnings Conference Call June 18, 2008 11:00 AM ET
Management Summary
Operator Welcome to the Morgan Stanley conference call. The following is a live broadcast by Morgan Stanley and is provided as a courtesy. Please note that this call is being broadcast on the internet through the company's website at www.morganstanley.com. A replay of the call and the webcast will be available through the company's website, and by phone, through July 18th, 2008.
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which: speak only as of the date on which they are made; which reflect management's current estimates, projections, expectations or beliefs; and which are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) shares are falling today after competitor Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) reported its second-quarter profit sunk 61 percent to $1.01 billion, or 95 cents per share, after paying preferred dividends. MS beat analysts' estimates of a 92 cent per-share profit, but only after raising $1.4 billion through asset sales, which could be a bad sign for the financial sector and JPM. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on JPM.
After hitting a one-year high of $50.99 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $36.01 in March. This morning, JPM opened at $38.53. So far today the stock has hit a low of $37.93 and a high of $38.70. As of 11:45, JPM is trading at $38.80, down $0.24. The chart for JPM looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in three months as long as JPM is below $50 at September expiration. JPM would have to rise by more than 30% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), the nation's second largest investment bank, posted its second quarter numbers today. As expected, the firm saw a hefty drop in quarterly profit. The ongoing credit crisis hit the bank hard and resulted in a 61% decline in quarterly profit, a number that could have been much worse.
The reason why I say that the situation could have been much worse is that the company benefited from the sale of around $1.4 billion in assets during the quarter. This contributed to a profit of 95 cents per share for the quarter.
The 95 cents per share was actually above Wall Street estimates, as analysts had been expecting to see the company show earnings for the quarter of 92 cents per share. But that has not prevented traders from pushing the stock lower in early morning trading. As of 11:00 am, we are seeing shares trading down 5% to $38.49.
When UK mortgage lender HBOS Plc went to market to raise capital, the outcome was a bust. The company sold only about 8% of the securities. In the end, HBOS's underwriters -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Dresdner Kleinwort Ltd. -- were stuck with $7.6 billion in unwanted paper.
Late last year, when the IPO market was much stronger, 
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees. .gif){kind=logo}
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