It should surprise no one that oil stocks have taken the lead in the first quarter, while financial stocks -- after a good two-year run -- have been tamed. This is how things have shaped up through the first quarter for my 2011 stock picks. (For a look at my original picks, see here: part 1, part 2, and part 3.)

Normally, if I said a business was underwater, investors would think the worst. Actually, in the summer Noble Corp (NE) was underwater -- and investors were not impressed. However, this was a great buying opportunity, and although the company is still underwater, it is also a market leader among my stock picks and the overall market -- even among oil industry players. With its fleet of 69 offshore drilling rigs, Noble stands tall.

Analyst Upgrades

• Bunge (BG) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Textron (TXT) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• CSX (CSX) to buy from neutral and Pulte Group (PHM) to conviction buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Aol (AOL) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Kohlberg Capital (KCAP) to outperform from market perform at JMP Securities.
• Owens Corning (OC) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Jefferies (JEF) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.
• Harris (HRS) to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.

Analyst Upgrades

• BB&T (BBT) and Aflac (AFL) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Zhongpin (HOGS) to neutral from reduce at Global Hunter.
• Marathon Oil (MRO), Noble Energy (NBL) and Manulife Financial (MFC) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO) to buy from hold at Canaccord.
• Comerica (CMA) to buy from neutral at Rochdale.

Analyst Upgrades

• Exxon Mobil (XOM), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Pioneer Natural (PXD) and Noble Energy (NBL) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Cenovus Energy (CVE) to conviction buy from neutral and Atwood Oceanics (ATW) to neutral from sell at Goldman as well.
• Southern Company (SO) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Chevron (CVX) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Ryder (R), Entergy (ETR) and Seaspan (SSW) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Gerdau (GGB), Crown Castle (CCI) and American Tower (AMT) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Ryland Group (RYL) to buy from neutral at Ticonderoga.

Analyst Upgrades

• Parker-Hannifin (PH) to buy from hold at Deutsche Bank.
• JDSU (JDSU) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Noble Corp. (NE) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Cerner (CERN) to buy from hold at Auriga.
• Cintas (CTAS) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• American States Water (AWR) to buy from hold at Brean Murray.
• National Semiconductor (NSM) and Texas Instruments (TXN) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• Lululemon (LULU) to buy from hold at ThinkEquity.
• DuPont Fabros (DFT) to top pick from outperform at RBC Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• General Growth (GGP) to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• PPL Corp. (PPL) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• Hologic (HOLX) to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Cognex (CGNX) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Buckeye Partners (BPL) to outperform from market perform at Wells Fargo.
• Ericsson (ERIC) and Health Care REIT (HCN) to buy from neutral and Olin (OLN) to neutral from sell at UBS.
• Nalco (NLC) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Watts Water (WTS) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• McDermott (MDR) to buy from neutral at Pritchard.

We are only one month into the new year and there have not been many dull moments. Games are going on in the Middle East and they are not the friendly kind. In Egypt a million plus protesters are playing a game of chicken with the Mubarak government demanding he step down from his 32-year-old reign as perpetual president.

This is not radical Islam fundamentalists; it is even more fundamental. The people want to improve their daily lives in a meaningful way. Education, infrastructure, clean water and clean streets. Speaking of infrastructure and getting back to the less dramatic but still important great stock picks Telefonica (TEF) and General Electric (GE) were the big winners so far bouncing over 10% in January.

Noble Corp. (NE - option chain) shares are rising today after Standard & Poor's, a unit of McGraw-Hill (MHP), announced NE will be added to its S&P 500 Index after the close of trading on Friday, replacing QLogic (QLGC). Addition to this index means that all the funds that track the index will need to add NE to their holdings, which is usually a positive thing for the stock. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NE.

NE opened this morning at $37.83. So far today the stock has hit a low of $37.37 and a high of $38.35. As of 12:30, NE is trading at $38.30 up $2.37 (6.6%). The chart for NE looks bullish and S&P gives NE a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

In Part 1 of this series I discussed starting with a good story and then examining the metrics, or first starting with the metrics via a stock screen and then look at the story behind the numbers.

A third possibility is to start with an idea that springs off the pages of a business journal. Some years ago, in the 25th anniversary edition of Money Magazine they listed a group of stocks that had gone up during this tenure. The one I liked the best that withstood closer scrutiny was Southern Company (SO), the electric utility.

The story and the metrics were great. It was located in one of the most desirable growth areas of the country. There was a favorable business climate, cheap housing, cheap land, good weather and an abundance of labor. The numbers were strong as well.

I have already gone on record this year saying that financial companies and insurance stocks are going to continue to rebound. In my previous two posts Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11 and Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 6, 7, 8, 9, I included several financial institutions. Today I add an insurance company.

The industry got whacked hard for many reasons. For one, it makes a significant amount of profit by investing its float, and like every other investor, the industry lost a pile of money in the financial crisis. It was embroiled more directly than some industries, as several insurers are affiliated with banks. Finally the housing crisis meant disruption to payment streams by homeowners who were delinquent on more than their mortgages.

Here are the next four of my 2011 picks. I am behind schedule, after publishing the first 5 earlier in the week (see: Chasing Value: 2011 Stock Picks -- 5 of 11). This year instead of starting completely anew, I am adjusting my 2010 picks. There is no sense in abandoning good ideas just because the calendar turned a page.

You will actually find support of running themes I have been writing about over the past few months. One of these is the idea of making a contrarian investment in a basket of stocks that have been both scalded and scolded in the headlines. Six stocks were included in such a group that I called the "toxic stocks" (see: Chasing Value: Toxic Stock Update #3 -- BAC, BP, C, GE, GS, RIG).

Could a stock that you made 1,100% on still have room to run? Yes, it is possible. In particular if it had a near death experience as a penny stock for a while.

That is the case with Newcastle Investments (NCT), the CMBS lender and real estate investment company that reached a recent high of $7.10 and has settled back down, most recently hovering between $6.70 to $7.00. It closed Thursday December 23 at $6.71.

What does it mean when a stock is downgraded to "Outperform" from "Strong Buy" as Raymond James did this week? That was the analysis painted on Noble Corp. (NE) and it's hard to figure.

What is the difference? What are they telling investors? You should switch from betting the farm to only betting the house on this stock?

They reduced their price target to $41 from $44. Noble closed yesterday at $34.66, so Raymond James is still speculating on a gain over 20% in the next twelve months.