JP Morgan (JPM) closed up 96 cents to $39.40. Option volume of 48K contracts compares to put volume of 28K contracts. August put option implied volatility is at 30, below a level of 37 from July 14, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Newmont Mining (NEM) is closed up 84 cents to $59.01. NEM is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 28. Gold is recently up 0.85% to $1,191, according to Bloomberg. NEM option volume of 11K contracts compares to put volume of 3K contracts. August option implied volatility is at 34, and December is at 35, versus its 26-week average of 36, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

CBOE Volatility Index - VIX down 1.12 cents to 24.52.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Microsoft (MSFT) closed up 24 cents to $25.47 Tuesday. MSFT is expected to announce Q4 EPS on July 22. August put option implied volatility is at 29, October is at 32, January is at 29, versus its 26-week average of 27, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.


Newmont Mining (NEM) closed up 97 cents to $58.99. NEM is expected to report Q2 EPS on July 28. Gold is recently up .85% to $1,191 according to Bloomberg. NEM option volume of 8K contracts compares to put volume of 4K contracts. August option implied volatility is at 34, and December is at 35, versus its 26-week average of 36, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

"While gold prices have surged 90% since year-end 2006, shares of Newmont Mining (NEM) still trade below their 2006 high of nearly $63 per share," observes Richard Moroney.

The editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, a blue-chip focused newsletter that has been published since 1946, explains, "Newmont generates more than 80% of its revenue from the sale \of gold, and the metal's recent strength has pushed earnings and cash flow sharply higher. As a result, the stock has seldom looked better under our "growth-at-a-good-price" approach.

Analyst Upgrades

• Deutsche Bank upgraded Barrick Gold (ABX) to buy from hold and reiterates a buy rating on Newmont Mining (NEM) after upping its 2011 gold forecast to $1,450 per ounce and 2012 forecast to $1,600 per ounce. The firm upped its target for Barrick shares to $53 from $45, for Newmont shares to $74 from $72, and on hold-rated Goldcorp (GG) and Kinross Gold (KGC) to $40 and $20, respectively.
• Citigroup upgraded General Dynamics (GD) to hold from sell following the recent pullback in shares. The firm keeps a $67 price target for the stock.
• UBS upgraded Public Service (PEG) to buy from neutral and has a $34 price target on the stock. The firm cites the company's solid balance sheet, earnings profile, and valuation for the upgrade.
• News Corp. (NWS) was upgraded to buy from hold at Soleil.
• AK Steel (AKS) was upgraded to neutral from underperform.
• Progress Energy (PGN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• PNC Financial (PNC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.

The shares of Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM), first discussed here on June 3, 2009 at a price of $46.42, continues to move higher, but it's not been a ride for squeamish investors.

However, if you can tolerate volatility, Newmont still has the right commodities for globalization's third decade: copper and gold.

Look for Newmont to post a 10-15% revenue gain in 2010, on both higher production and higher average prices for copper and gold. Global demand should support copper prices, and currency market uncertainty (and low, real interest rates) will continue to benefit gold prices.

Today was one of those days that started directionless and ended up less bad than it looked toward the end. Mortgage applications were down and the earnings picture was mixed. Alan Greenspan dodged the heat that he was responsible for the crash after the bubble in testimony today, although there is still much debate on that. Gold came almost to a 2010 high measured by the key ETF, and the 10-Year Treasury auction went better than many expected.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,897.52 -72.47 (-0.66%)
S&P 500 1,182.44 -6.99 (-0.59%)
Nasdaq 2,431.16 -5.65 (-0.23%)

Newmont Mining (NEM), which I first wrote about here on June 3, 2009, at a price of $46.42, still looks like it has the right stuff for future gains.

And that right stuff is: gold and copper. Newmont just posted Q4 EPS of $1.13, well above the First Call Q4 EPS estimate of 79 cents, on higher production volumes and better prices.

Jobless claims ticked back up yet again, and the global stock markets were all weak ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning. Throw in a stronger dollar and weak commodity prices, and you had almost no real chance for a sizable recovery into positive territory when you consider that the DJIA and S&P 500 are so close to 2009 highs.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 10,308.26 -132.86 (-1.27%)
S&P 500 1,096.12 -13.06 (-1.18%)
Nasdaq 2,180.05 -26.86 (-1.22%)

Top Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
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A generation or so ago, a key word for the future was 'plastic.' Well, plastic remains a big part of modern daily life, but a key word for the current investing generation may be 'copper, which is one reason I'm reiterating my buy rating for copper and gold miner Newmont Mining (NEM), first recommended on June 3, 2009 at a price of $46.42.

As expected, Newmont's stock price is trending up, propelled higher by a likely 10-13% revenue increase in 2010.

Newmont Mining's (NYSE: NEM) stock continues to meander, despite an average, higher price for gold so far in 2009. The primary culprit? An average, lower price for copper.

Still, with a likely FY2009 revenue gain of 6-7%, I'm Reiterating my Buy rating for the company, first recommended on June 3, 2009 at a price of $46.42.

When gold miners and gun-toters lag the broader economy, it's usually a good sign that conditions are on the mend. Both sectors outperform when times were tough, but this year, their growth has slowed relative to the market has a whole.

The S&P 500 index has gained 57% since March 9, 2009, according to a USA Today report, while Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) are up 36% and 21%, respectively, for the same period. Smith & Wesson (NASDAQ: SWHC) is up 30%. Again, these are definitely respectable results, but they aren't keeping pace with the index.

Despite the U.S. stock market's recent run up, the decline in the U.S. dollar and inflation fears have investors searching for safety in these uncertain times. A popular strategy that has emerged is to hedge market and currency risk with commodities, namely gold, oil, and uranium. What specific stocks and investments in these sectors are likely to outperform?

ETFs like the US Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) and the SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) will obviously track any rise or fall in these commodities to a T, but perhaps individual companies in these sectors are a better fit for you. Below are some industry giants, as well as speculative plays that are also drawing attention from investors.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis.

Just after the close yesterday, Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) guided up 2009 production and guided 2009 cash costs lower. NEM also announced that it would be purchasing the remaining interest in its majority owned Boddington Mine from Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE: AU) (which equates to 6.6 mln reserve ounces). That's an increase of 8 percent in NEM's Proven & Probable (P&P) reserves at a price tag of $1.2 bln, which will be raised via an equity offering of 19 mln shares.

Based on NEM's 441 mln shares outstanding, we're looking at dilution of just over 4 percent. Thus, in theory, the deal is not even dilutive, given the 8 percent increase in P&P reserves that the company is acquiring with only a 4 percent dilution in equity. Based on what I have seen so far, this looks like a spectacular deal for NEM.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor Lance Lewis.

Banro (NYSE: BAA) jumped 13% yesterday after the company announced that it had finally completed its bankable feasibility study on its Twangiza project and proved up nearly 4 mln ounces of its 10 mln ounce resource. Thus, we can now calculate an NAV for BAA.

BAA has no debt. So, assuming $1,000 gold, 3.67 mln ounces of Proven & Probable reserves, an average cash cost of $429 per ounce over the life of the mine (which is based on the feasibility study), and the estimated $410 mln required for cap ex, we get an NAV of almost $15 a share (which gives zero value to the company's current cash balance of around $20 mln and its remaining 5.6 mln ounce resource at Twangiza, not to mention the resource estimates at its other properties).

It seems that everywhere you turn you hear something about the price of gold, from analysts to commercials encouraging you to sell your old jewelry for big bucks. If you're tempted, how about a bit safer investment in the commodity? Let your money work for you -- invest in an Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) that hold shares in several different gold producers, and you can ride the wave of the industry.

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (AMEX: GDX) is a perfect opportunity to ride this wave with as the fund's goal is to mimic the price and yield performance of the AMEX Gold Miners index, before fees and expenses. This is a nondiversified fund that is comprised of several well known companies whose main operations involve gold and silver mining.

There are two reasons to buy GDX instead of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) or the iShares Comex Gold Trust (NYSE: IAU) both of which are pure gold ETFs (you own a share of gold sitting in a safe). First, the ratio between gold and the value of the gold held by miners has been relatively stable for 30 years. But today, the gold miners are selling at 33% of that historical ratio, so bulls say it's better to buy the miners, not the metal. Second, the biggest expense of a mining company is energy. Oil today hit $54 per barrel, down 63% from a peak of $147. This adds to the profits of the Gold Miners.