Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is the railroad sector. The once near-rust-belt level sector has experienced a revival at the start of the globalization age, and compelling economic trends document the commerce-based underpinnings of this revival.
Most transportation officials agree that the U.S. transportation infrastructure -- highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems -- is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's vehicle transportation needs of the 21st century.
The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth an evaluation.
Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern United States, operating a 21,000-mile rail network in the eastern United States and Canada. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.
Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.
Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.
Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.
When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.
CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) is one of the nation's leading transportation companies, providing rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services. The company's transportation network spans approximately 21,000 miles, with service to 23 eastern states and the District of Columbia. It connects to more than 70 ocean, river and lake ports. The company also has operations in real estate, resort management and equipment leasing. Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) are competitors.
The firm pleased investors early this week, when it issued upside earnings guidance. Management now sees Q1 EPS of 70-73 cents, versus Street consensus of 63 cents. It also expects FY08 EPS of $3.36-$3.56, versus consensus of $3.05. The company boosted long-term guidance through 2010, anticipating compound annual growth in operating income of 13-15% over Y07 (10-12% prior guidance) and compound annual growth in EPS of 18-21% over Y08 (15-17% prior guidance). UBS subsequently upgraded the shares from "neutral" to "buy" and raised its price target to $66.
Railroad giant Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) was up 10% in just the last week, based in large measure on super 4Q and FY2007 earnings released a week ago, January 22. Fourth quarter operating revenue increased 6% to $2.5 billion, and net income increased 4% to $399 million. What makes these numbers even more impressive is that Norfolk Southern posted revenue increases at the same time it faced significantly higher fuel costs and a measurable reduction in shipments by volume. Coal shipments dropped 2% by volume, while general merchandise shipments dropped a hefty 10% by volume.
The story is the same for FY2007 results. Revenue increased while shipments by volume decreased. And the railroad still made money. The stock closed at $45.07 on January 21, but closed at $52.00 on January 28. Very nice capital appreciation for a week. The company increased its dividend payout by 12% to $0.29 per share, a 32% increase over the last year, and the 102nd consecutive quarter of dividend payout. Clearly, Norfolk Southern is a stock for the very long haul.
Readers of this space know that the preference here is for large cap companies, with demonstrated business models, and favorable long-term factors, that have the resources to ride-out short-term economic downturns, including recessions.
And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.
Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)
Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:
Most transportation officials agree that the United States' transportation infrastructure - - highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems - - is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's transportation needs of the 21st century.
The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth a review.
Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern U.S. and Canada, operating a 21,000-mile rail network. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pharmacopeia, Zumiez, Norfolk Southern and OccuLogix were today's noteworthy upgrades:
CIBC upgraded Pharmacopeia (NASDAQ: PCOP) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, as they believe its lead cardiovascular drug DARA has the potential to become an important new therapy for hypertension and diabetic nephropathy.
Think Equity upgraded shares of Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) to Buy from Accumulate to reflect the company's strong same store sales growth.
Caris upgraded shares of OccuLogix (NASDAQ: OCCX) to Above Average from Average, as they believe weakness in the stock creates a buying opportunity. The firm believes the stock has dropped due to concerns about the company's cash position, but thinks the current stock price underestimates the revenue potential of the company's assets.
OTHER UPGRADES:
BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
Given investors anxiousness about the economy and hearing more gloom and doom than I think is warranted, I thought I would get back to basics with "my pal" Warren, and add to the series I started several months ago. I decided to write the series after receiving encouragement from friends and associates that read With Warren Buffett by my side ....
Today, I am writing about the concept of Durable Competitive Advantage, which is the ability to get ahead and stay ahead with a high level of certainty. It is also referred to as Sustainable Competitive Advantage.
To achieve a Durable Competitive Advantage, several factors have to be present. One is a big moat (Buffett expression) surrounding the enterprise. This usually means businesses that sell commodities where price is the primary factor in determining opportunity, have no moat as price takers. Their profit margins are not easily defendable. Another factor is barrier to entry. How easy would it be for someone to enter the same business and compete? The T-shirt business is a good example, of something without a Durable Competitive Advantage. Anyone could enter this business in one day, and they do. So unless the business has some unique concept, it does not have the promise of relatively predictable and sustainable profit margins in the future.
When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.
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