Last year most analysts proclaimed that the market would be up by the years end. The only accurate part of the analysis was that the year did end; although not well.

When Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) was trading at $114 analysts were silent. When it dropped below $100 and then $90 a share I do not recall anyone writing anything accept that "my pal Warren" was buying. At $80, and then $70 not more than a whisper.

Then yesterday when BNI was trading in the mid $60's (it closed at $64.97) Citigroup (NYSE: C) Investment Research analyst Matthew Troy cut shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. and Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. to "Sell" from "Hold."

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a railway company whose colleagues include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), issued its Q1 report on Tuesday after the bell. As one might imagine, there was a drop in both sales and net income. The top line declined by 17%. The bottom line, on an adjusted basis (taking into account an item from last year's similar quarter), dropped 23% to $0.62 per share.

The economy is still taking its toll, obviously. Volumes were down during the quarter. However, the market sometimes cares about only one thing: beating expectations. CSX actually beat the analyst expectations of $0.51 per share. This significant difference led traders to push shares of CSX higher by 6.5% during Tuesday's after-hours session.

Lots of quarterly reports to come this week, and if you're one of those looking to earnings for signs of the direction of the markets or of the economy, well its going to be a rough week. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters, by and large, expect earnings declines to be deeper and more numerous than earnings gains. And that's true across sectors: Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), U.S. Steel Corp. (NYSE: X), Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), New York Times Co. (NYSE: NYT), Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX), Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA), Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (NYSE: HOT), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Altria Group Inc. (NYSE: MO), and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) are all expected to post double-digit declines this week.

Even the petroleum industry is not immune, with Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), ExxonMobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Murphy Oil Corp. (NYSE: MUR), ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY), and Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) expected to report profits that were as much as 65.3% lower in the fourth quarter.

And analysts expect Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX), Tyson Foods Inc. (NYSE: TSN), DuPont (NYSE: DD), and Sun Microsystems Inc. (NASDAQ: JAVA) to have swung to losses for the most recent quarter, from profits in the same period a year ago. And Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is expect to have deepened its net loss.

But not all is doom and gloom. There are some anticipated EPS gainers as well. Here's a closer look at a few of them.

CSX (NYSE: CSX), a transportation company whose competitors include Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC), and Union Pacific Corp. (NYSE: UNP), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday. The results weren't bad, driven in part by a drop in energy costs and an effort to keep costs under control.

Revenues increased 18%, approaching $3 billion. Earnings per share from continuing operations skyrocketed 40% to $0.94. As management pointed out, distributors are exploiting railways to the advantage of their supply chains. This is cool for shareholders of CSX, who obviously are hoping their company can successfully navigate the tough economic landscape that we're all trying to find maps for. And if oil prices continue to fall, then CSX may find it easier to manage its operations.

And there's another positive. According to this source, CSX beat analyst expectations by a penny. Unfortunately, according to that same source, management believes that it will hit the lower end of the spectrum in terms of its previous guidance. CSX is looking to earn between $3.65 and $3.75 per share for the fiscal year.

Taking everything together, I'm not sure I'd want to enter CSX at this time. It is well off the 52-week high, but it's not exactly near the 52-week low, either. Even though the energy picture might be moderating for the company, and even though its business does offer a compelling transportation service, I think a macro slowdown might send shares back toward the low. And according to this source, freight volume declined by over 2%. Problems in the automotive industry are negatively affecting CSX. Heck, problems in many industries will be with us for a while. CSX will see its operations pressured. And, again, that tells me that I'd have to see a big drop in the stock to find it attractive at this point.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Readers of this space know that one of the preferred sectors is the railroad sector. The once near-rust-belt level sector has experienced a revival at the start of the globalization age, and compelling economic trends document the commerce-based underpinnings of this revival.

Most transportation officials agree that the U.S. transportation infrastructure -- highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems -- is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's vehicle transportation needs of the 21st century.

The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth an evaluation.

Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern United States, operating a 21,000-mile rail network in the eastern United States and Canada. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says lots of companies now thrive with crude up here.

Oil's not a tax on everything -- it's a tax on the consumer. That's what I come down to when I see the charts this weekend and ponder what's happening in so much of industrial America.

Company after company that I examine -- the new techs, as I call them -- actually benefit from higher oil prices. Or they can pass them on with ease, because of the worldwide demand being so strong.

Take all of the companies involved with making a Boeing (NYSE: BA) (Cramer's Take): Boeing itself, Alcoa (NYSE: AA) (Cramer's Take), Honeywell (NYSE: HON) (Cramer's Take) and Precision Castparts (NYSE: PCP) (Cramer's Take) being good examples. Each of these is necessary because the new Dreamliner burns lots less fuel, and with fuel the biggest airline cost, it stands to reason that higher energy prices make the plane more desirable even at a higher price point.

Or how about all of the companies involved with process and flow control and efficient motors: Parker-Hannifin (NYSE: PH) (Cramer's Take), Emerson (NYSE: EMR) (Cramer's Take), Eaton (NYSE: ETN) (Cramer's Take) and Flowserve (NYSE: FLS) (Cramer's Take). Those work higher with higher energy prices. CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take), Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) (Cramer's Take), Kansas City Southern (NYSE: KSU) (Cramer's Take), Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) (Cramer's Take) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) (Cramer's Take) are smaller energy users than trucks, and they ship plenty of ethanol and fertilizer.

When a major, metropolitan U.S. newspaper discovers a investment trend or a hot sector, count on increased share demand for companies in the sector. When that paper is one of the top three dailies, in this case The Washington Post, count on even more demand.

On Monday, The Washington Post examined the resurgence of the United States' railroad sector, touching on many of the themes discussed here during the past six months, and described why the rails' services are likely to be in demand for many years.

CSX Corporation (NYSE: CSX) is one of the nation's leading transportation companies, providing rail, intermodal and rail-to-truck transload services. The company's transportation network spans approximately 21,000 miles, with service to 23 eastern states and the District of Columbia. It connects to more than 70 ocean, river and lake ports. The company also has operations in real estate, resort management and equipment leasing. Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI), Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) and Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) are competitors.

The firm pleased investors early this week, when it issued upside earnings guidance. Management now sees Q1 EPS of 70-73 cents, versus Street consensus of 63 cents. It also expects FY08 EPS of $3.36-$3.56, versus consensus of $3.05. The company boosted long-term guidance through 2010, anticipating compound annual growth in operating income of 13-15% over Y07 (10-12% prior guidance) and compound annual growth in EPS of 18-21% over Y08 (15-17% prior guidance). UBS subsequently upgraded the shares from "neutral" to "buy" and raised its price target to $66.

Railroad giant Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) was up 10% in just the last week, based in large measure on super 4Q and FY2007 earnings released a week ago, January 22. Fourth quarter operating revenue increased 6% to $2.5 billion, and net income increased 4% to $399 million. What makes these numbers even more impressive is that Norfolk Southern posted revenue increases at the same time it faced significantly higher fuel costs and a measurable reduction in shipments by volume. Coal shipments dropped 2% by volume, while general merchandise shipments dropped a hefty 10% by volume.

The story is the same for FY2007 results. Revenue increased while shipments by volume decreased. And the railroad still made money. The stock closed at $45.07 on January 21, but closed at $52.00 on January 28. Very nice capital appreciation for a week. The company increased its dividend payout by 12% to $0.29 per share, a 32% increase over the last year, and the 102nd consecutive quarter of dividend payout. Clearly, Norfolk Southern is a stock for the very long haul.

Readers of this space know that the preference here is for large cap companies, with demonstrated business models, and favorable long-term factors, that have the resources to ride-out short-term economic downturns, including recessions.

And in this category a railroad stock represent a prudent addition to a portfolio, for investors who can tolerate moderate risk.

Pick a railroad. Virtually any railroad. Odds are, you will do fine, long-term, as the nation continues to re-discover the valuable asset - - the national treasury, really - - of its railroads. (More on that latter topic, in a future blog.)

Here are the railroad plays, ranked by risk, with the top stock, BNI, being the lowest risk. A stop/loss, if one were to buy the stock, is also listed:

Most transportation officials agree that the United States' transportation infrastructure - - highways, roads, bridges, mass transit systems - - is in need of a major upgrade in order to meet the nation's transportation needs of the 21st century.

The nation's public officials will begin to address the above concern in the years ahead, as public funds become available, but until they do, and due to crude oil's sustained high price, an opportunity has emerged for another transportation form: you guessed it, the railroads. And Norfolk Southern Corp. (NYSE: NSC) is a railroad worth a review.

Norfolk Southern provides rail transportation in the eastern U.S. and Canada, operating a 21,000-mile rail network. It's an elaborate intermodal and coal service network that also has a large freight business.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Pharmacopeia, Zumiez, Norfolk Southern and OccuLogix were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• CIBC upgraded Pharmacopeia (NASDAQ: PCOP) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer, as they believe its lead cardiovascular drug DARA has the potential to become an important new therapy for hypertension and diabetic nephropathy.
  
• Think Equity upgraded shares of Zumiez (NASDAQ: ZUMZ) to Buy from Accumulate to reflect the company's strong same store sales growth.
  
• Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Lehman Brothers on valuation.
  
• Caris upgraded shares of OccuLogix (NASDAQ: OCCX) to Above Average from Average, as they believe weakness in the stock creates a buying opportunity. The firm believes the stock has dropped due to concerns about the company's cash position, but thinks the current stock price underestimates the revenue potential of the company's assets.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• BRE Properties (NYSE: BRE) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
  
• Bear Stearns raised Capital Product Partners (NASDAQ: CPLP) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded Celestica (NYSE: CLS) to Neutral from Underweight.
  
• Stifel upgraded SL Green Realty (NYSE: SLG) to Buy from Hold.

Given investors anxiousness about the economy and hearing more gloom and doom than I think is warranted, I thought I would get back to basics with "my pal" Warren, and add to the series I started several months ago. I decided to write the series after receiving encouragement from friends and associates that read With Warren Buffett by my side ....

Today, I am writing about the concept of Durable Competitive Advantage, which is the ability to get ahead and stay ahead with a high level of certainty. It is also referred to as Sustainable Competitive Advantage.

To achieve a Durable Competitive Advantage, several factors have to be present. One is a big moat (Buffett expression) surrounding the enterprise. This usually means businesses that sell commodities where price is the primary factor in determining opportunity, have no moat as price takers. Their profit margins are not easily defendable. Another factor is barrier to entry. How easy would it be for someone to enter the same business and compete? The T-shirt business is a good example, of something without a Durable Competitive Advantage. Anyone could enter this business in one day, and they do. So unless the business has some unique concept, it does not have the promise of relatively predictable and sustainable profit margins in the future.