"Global steel producers are thriving, and their stocks are hitting new highs," note Yiannis Mostrous and Roger S. Conrad, who add, "But the best is yet to come."
In the industry-leading Personal Finance, the two advisors explain, "We're still in the early stage of a truly global bull market cycle for steel, and the companies best positioned to take advantage are headed a lot higher." Here, they look at their "Iron Five."
"As is the case with other building blocks of economic growth, steel is enjoying explosive demand from the developing world. And with the world expanding as never before, steel companies are literally selling as fast as they can produce.
"In the August 2007, we highlighted five first-rate global steel producers. Since then, they've returned an average of 67.4%, versus a decline of 3.7% for the S&P 500.
"The Iron Five are five picks that we believe are ripe for even bigger gains. Like the last group, these stocks are often volatile. They're also vulnerable to the possibility of a general stock market slide and most of all to a dip in global demand growth, particularly from China.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the slide has to end somewhere -- eventually, we'll see a bid.
Is someone having a margin call? That's what I keep thinking as I watch the sickening slide in Motorola's (NYSE: MOT) (Cramer's Take) stock. How can Motorola go down so much? This is a company with a lot of money and some businesses that are doing excellently. It has great existing contracts with telcos.
But someone sells it and sells it hard every day. It almost feels that Carl Icahn has a margin call, post-Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) (Cramer's Take), or he has to sell MOT to fund Yahoo!, and that doesn't seem right.
Otherwise, how can we explain the endless selling? Sure, as Piper said yesterday, they are losing share in America, but does anyone think this company is going away? Does anyone think this company is some sort of regional bank with its destiny completely out of its hands, that reliance on housing coming back will determine its viability? This is only a $16 billion company now with sales that are almost twice that?
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Motorola, MF Global and Acorda Therapeutics were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Piper Jaffray downgraded shares of Motorola (NYSE: MOT) to Sell from Neutral after their June channel checks indicated continued market share losses in the company's North American handset business.
Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of MF Global (NYSE: MF) to Market Perform from Outperform on the anticipated dilutive effect of the company's convertible offerings.
Friedman Billings downgraded Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) to Market Perform from Outperform citing valuation.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Xyratex (NASDAQ: XRTX) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird and to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
Goldman downgraded the U.S. Financial Sector and Consumer Discretionary Sector to Underweight from Neutral. Goldman removed Nucor (NYSE: NUE) from the Conviction Buy List.
Merrill downgraded AU Optronics (NYSE: AUO) to Neutral from Buy.
Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ: STLD) is the fifth largest producer of carbon steel products in the United States. The firm operates five mid-western electric-furnace mini-mills, producing merchant bars, engineered bar products, wide-flange beams, rails, and flat-rolled steels. It also runs six fabrication facilities, making joists, girders, and decking for non-residential construction projects. Steel scrap is processed at 42 locations in the eastern U.S. and Canada. Nucor (NYSE: NUE) and U. S. Steel (NYSE: X) are major competitors.
The company raised its second quarter outlook last week, citing "stronger than anticipated shipping volume and selling values for flat-rolled steel products and stronger volume and margins in recycling." Management predicted Q2 EPS of 90-95 cents (80-90 cent prior estimate, 89 cent Street consensus).
US Steel (NYSE: X) shares are trading higher after competitor Nucor (NYSE: NUE) raised its earnings outlook for its upcoming second-quarter earnings. The previous forecast of 1.55 to 1.60 was lifted by 20 cents to 1.75 to 1.80. Analysts were looking for 1.69 and an upside surprise by NUE should signal good things for X as well. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on X.
After hitting a one-year low of $74.41 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $185.55 last month. X opened this morning at $177.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $175.25 and a high of $182.22. As of 12:55, X is trading at $183.10, up 9.88 (5.7%). The chart for X looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $140 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just seven weeks as long as X is above $140 at July expiration. US Steel would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
X hasn't been below $140 since March and has shown support around $170 recently. This trade could be risky if the stock has risen too quickly and has a correction, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at $150, where it formed a bottom in May.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in X or NUE.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: First Solar, Pride International and EnerSys were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Friedman Billings downgraded First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) to Underperform from Market Perform citing margin risk concerns, as the company aggressively pursues utility-scale projects in the US. The firm said risks are not reflected in share valuation near $300 and could be a source of disappointment but could also lead to downside EPS risk.
Wachovia said Pride International (NYSE: PDE) has the least potential EPS upside vs. peers given the company has contracted the highest percentage of its floater days into 2012E. Additionally, the firm views a takeout by Seadrill as unlikely. Shares were cut to Underperform from Market Perform.
Merriman downgraded shares of EnerSys (NYSE: ENS) to Neutral from Buy as they believe the strong Q4 results were driven by a one-time benefit from lead procurement mechanics and that data does not support the company's sustained margin expansion story.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Citigroup lowered Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) to Hold from Buy.
UBS downgraded Nucor (NYSE: NUE) to Neutral from Buy.
Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) was downgraded at Oppenheimer to Perform from Outperform.
The Airlines Sector was cut by Soleil to Neutral from Outperform.
Nucor (NYSE: NUE) shares are falling after the company announced its plans to raise roughly $3 billion by selling stocks and bonds to raise money to buy other companies and pay off debt. The company intends to sell 25 million shares for more than $2 billion. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NUE.
After hitting a one-year low of $41.62 in August, the stock has risen to hit its one-year high of $83.56 just last week. This morning, NUE opened at $79.13. So far today the stock has hit a low of $77.38 and a high of $79.61. As of 12:30, NUE is trading at $79.46, down $1.86 (-2.3%). The chart for NUE looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $90 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in five weeks as long as NUE is below $90 at June expiration. Nucor would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Nucor (NYSE: NUE) closed at $81.44 Thursday. NUE is a manufacturer and marketer of steel products. NUE overall option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.
US Steel (NYSE: X) closed at $176.61. CIBC World has a $175 price target on X. X overall option implied volatility of 48 is near its 26-week of 51 average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable global trend as a support. And with the above in mind, Nucor Steel is worth a review.
Nucor Corporation (NYSE: NUE) produces about 20 million tons of steel annually, and also is a major recycler of scrap metal.
In general, analysts expect NUE's revenue to increase 10-12% in FY 2008, aided by the Harris Steel acquisition and other acquisitions. Analysts also see strong demand for beams and bars, on continued non-residential construction growth.
After hitting a one-year low of $41.62 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $76.48 last week. NUE opened this morning at $73.66. So far today the stock has hit a low of $73.24 and a high of $75.60. As of 12:20, NUE is trading at $73.92, unchanged from Friday's close. The chart for NUE looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just three months as long as NUE is above $55 at July expiration. Nucor would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
NUE hasn't been below $55 at all since January and has shown support around $67 recently. This trade could be risky if the global economy shrinks and reduces the worldwide demand for steel, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find from its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $60 and rising. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NUE.
Nucor (NYSE: NUE) shares are trading lower today after along with the broader market after a weak first-quarter earnings report from General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) stirred worries about the U.S. economy. A lower-than-expected consumer confidence reading also weighed on investors. If the economy does not make a quick recovery, steel manufacturers could be among the hardest hit stocks. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on NUE.
After hitting a one-year low of $41.62 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $75.67 in March. This morning, NUE opened at $70.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $69.20 and a high of $70.75. As of 11:20, NUE is trading at $69.45, down $2.20 (-3.1%). The chart for NUE looks bullish and steady while S&P gives NUE a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bear-call credit spread above the $75 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just one week as long as NUE is below $75 next Friday. Nucor would have to rise by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
NUE hasn't been above $75 by more than a few cents at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $72 recently. This trade could be risky if the economy gets some positive news in the coming week, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance NUE has formed between $70 and $75 over the past month.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NUE. He does own and control a bullish hedged position in GE.
Beware Charging at the Supermarket Supermarkets have long employed tricks aimed at luring shoppers into spending more, such as doling out free samples or stationing the most expensive sugar cereals right at a toddler's eye level. Now, as shoppers struggle to get their escalating grocery bills under control, the credit-card companies are throwing one more temptation their way: grocery store rewards cards. Here are the three things you should consider before applying for a grocery rewards card. Plus: the three best rewards cards today. Grocery Rewards Cards Often Aren't Worth It - SmartMoney.com
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says U.S. Steel is a puzzle, and he ponders how to play it here.
U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) presents the ultimate conundrum. It is hitting on all cylinders, courtesy of the incredible demand for steel domestically because of pipelines. And it is finally not suffering from dumped imports, because the dumpers are from countries growing so much faster than we are that they need all the steel they can get - China, for example, is struggling to build its own share instead of dumping.
John Surma, the CEO, has taken this once-great company right back to greatness with a rise from $9 to $127 in five years. That defies gravity. He has done that by cutting labor costs and growing the business, he has done it by emphasizing areas he can dominate and cutting ones he can t. And he has done it by taking advantage of the 30 bankruptcies in this sector, leaving him one of the few publicly traded companies left, including Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), which is a great company, AK Steel (NYSE: AKS) (Cramer's Take), which levitates all of the time on takeover talk and then DOESN'T come in, and Reliance (NYSE: RS) (Cramer's Take), which is another fave of mine.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says after big runs, bears present five points. The good news is that three of them have gotten a little better.
After big runs, you immediately hear the following:
1. Earnings are going to be terrible. 2. Commodity prices are out of control. 3. Housing prices are still falling. 4. Credit is a real problem and mortgages are hard to come by and at higher prices. 5. Someone else -- a bank, a credit firm, a monoline -- is about to fail.
Then we go down again. And we get frightened.
I don't have anything to counter the first one. I particularly think that tech earnings are going to be bad, like those out of Sony Ericsson. I think the only big winners in tech will be those who go up against big losers, and the wins won't be that great anyway: Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) (Cramer's Take) over AMD (NYSE: AMD) (Cramer's Take), Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) over everybody, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) (Cramer's Take) over everybody. The safe place is real-economy "Rest of World"ers like CSX (NYSE: CSX) (Cramer's Take) and U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) (Cramer's Take) and Nucor (NYSE: NUE) (Cramer's Take), or the drug stocks with big overseas exposure.
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Nucor
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