The New York Times (NYT) competes with publications like News Corp.'s (NWS) Wall Street Journal as well as Yahoo! (YHOO), Google (GOOG) and Aol. (AOL) for online advertising dollars. NYT is expected to launch a new paywall for its online site in the near future. According to the report, the NYT is planning to charge around $20 for a digital bundle that includes Times online and Apple iPad app access, and less than $10 for web-only access.

We estimate that NYT's most valuable business remains within its print circulation and advertising business, through which it derives an estimated 60% of its stock value. The company derives an incremental 20% of its stock value from its online advertising business.

U.S. stock futures are mixed this morning, as investors await jobless-claims data and earnings report from Merck (MRK). Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 7 points to 11,992 and S&P 500 futures fell 0.40 point to 1,299.60. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 3.50 to 2,316.25.

The Dow index gained 1.81 points or 0.02% to close at 12,042 yesterday.

Data on weekly jobless claims and fourth quarter productivity will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The ISM report on service sector activity in January and factory orders for December will both be released at 10 a.m. ET.

US retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) are scheduled to report same-store sales for January.

The Old Grey Lady is ailing. Wednesday morning, New York Times Co. (NYT) warned that its third-quarter revenue will decline by a wider-than-expected margin, due to slower growth in digital advertising. Speaking at an investor conference in New York, CEO Janet Robinson explained that digital ad revenue is expected to rise about 14%, compared to its earlier forecast for growth in the mid-to-high teens.

As a result, the company expects to swallow a third-quarter operating loss of 5 cents to 7 cents per share. Excluding items, earnings are expected to arrive at 3 cents to 5 cents per share, compared to Wall Street's consensus estimate of 4 cents per share.

The latest Beige Book from the Fed showed that growth is definitely decelerating. The good news is that even the pygmies have figured that out by now. Stock traders and bond traders have been fighting over whether the slower growth means a double-dip recession or just anemic growth. There were only a few reports to watch, but many stocks and sectors were on the move.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,387.54 +46.85 (0.45%)
S&P 500 1,098.90 +7.06 (0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,228.87 +19.98 (0.90%)

Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades

When Facebook announced its new location-based capabilities after Twitter has already enabled it, the future looked pretty grim for Foursquare. Though wildly popular with the nerd crowd (of which I'm a member ... the nerd world, not Foursquare), could a year-old location-based game go head-to-head with the 400 million-user-strong behemoth of the social media industry? In a strange twist, Facebook is actually breathing life into the killer app many expected it to kill.

Thirty-three percent of Foursquare's traffic comes from Facebook, according to data from Hitwise (EXPN), followed by Google (GOOG) at 22% and Twitter at 8%. The remaining one third of traffic, from everyone else, is fed in part by partnership with major brands such as the New York Times (NYT), Bravo and Zagat.

Today was one of those days that started out strong and just stayed strong. Spending in January rose 0.5% but outpaced a 0.1% gain in personal income. This morning's strength came on the heels of an overseas stock market rally and that was enough to keep things rolling all day, even if the manufacturing data was lackluster. Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA: 10,403 (+0.76%)
S&P 500: 2,273 (+1.58%)
NASDAQ: 1,115 (+1.02%)

Top Analyst Upgrades/Downgrades
Top Day Trader Alerts

New York Times Co. (NYT), which has said it plans to move to a metered model for its online presence, is scheduled to discuss its fourth-quarter and full-year 2009 financial results in a conference call Wednesday, Feb. 10, at 11:00 AM (ET). An live webcast of the call will be available at the company's website.

During the three months that ended in December, New York Times released an app for the BlackBerry and new features for NYTimes.com, as well as named a new HR chief. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are looking for earnings for that period of $0.38 per share. That's up from $0.16 per share in the previous quarter and $0.30 per share a year ago. But revenue for the fourth quarter is expected to be 15.4% lower than a year ago to $653.2 million.

How are readers finding the news? Well, increasingly, the answer is Facebook. The social networking site, which boasts well over 350 million registered users, is now the fourth largest referral source of traffic to online news destinations. Almost a year ago, only 0.5% of traffic to news and media sites came from Facebook. Today, that level is 3.5%, according to data from Web analytics firm Experian Hitwise.

Only Google (GOOG), Yahoo! (YHOO) and MSN (MSFT) send more traffic to news sites. Google News, a subset of the search engine giant, failed to keep pace with Facebook, despite the fact that it exists specifically to send Internet users to media outlets. Only 1.39% of referrals came from this source.

The recent announcement by the New York Times (NYT) that it would start to require subscriptions next year has drawn no shortage of attention and commentary. It has tried to put content behind a pay wall before (and failed), as have other newspapers.

Almost universally, newspapers have struggled with online subscriptions, with the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal, a News Corp (NWS) property, the only two that have really delivered results better than awful. Whether the New York Times can operate at that level is in doubt, particularly given the stunning realization about Long Island daily newspaper Newsday.

On Monday, Tom Johansmeyer indicated that a for-pay model for the online version of The New York Times was imminent. Indeed, a press release from The New York Times Company (NYT) hit the wires Wednesday morning, revealing that a paid version of NYTimes.com would launch at the beginning of 2011 -- that's next year. So "All the News That's Fit to Print" will be available to Web browsers at a cost.

But the only folks that will have to open their wallets are those who leaf through lots of Times articles. The casual news browser will have free access to a specified number of articles each month before being charged. Subscribers who pay for home delivery of the traditional paper will have free and unlimited access to the site.

The New York Times (NYT) has been struggling to figure out the web, which has led to a debate over whether to charge for electrons that has spanned years. Well, the Times seems likely to take the plunge, hoping to replicate the successes of the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal ... except, of course, that the Wall Street Journal is famous for not really delivering profits. Fortunately, the new pay wall is expected to look more like the Financial Times than the Wall Street Journal. The New York Times is considering a "metered" system. Visitors will be able to read a certain number of articles free before being required to subscribe.

A friend of Arthur Sulzberger, according to New York Magazine's Daily Intel, said that the final word could come in a few days, a sentiment corroborated by a newsroom source who said that the plan could be announced within weeks. Yet, plans need to be implemented, so it could take months for the Times to begin charging for content.

The New York Times (NYT) reports today that newspapers dominate the news creation business.

This is an interesting twist -- instead of touting readers or paid circulation or ads or total revenue, it's talking about production. It's almost as if Ford (F) were to announce: "We make more cars than anyone else." Who the hell cares if they sell any, right? What's important is production, not sales! For the Times, and print media in general, it feels like yet another attempt to justify its existence and "prove" that it is more valuable than the more cost-effective and nimble online outlets.

The New York Times (NYT) is putting its 2.3 million followers to work. It isn't ready to start charging a la carte for Twitter advertising, but it is including the channel in the comprehensive packages it presents to advertisers. And, the Times isn't alone. Several media outlets (including BloggingStocks) have ads running through their Twitter streams, but this is still virgin territory, for the most part, and media companies are still feeling their ways through it.

With close to 60 million users, Twitter is a force corporate marketing departments just can't ignore. The reach offered by this microblogging platform is profound, and skipping it means yielding digital turf to the competition.

Yet, as the country's major brands have flocked to Twitter, not all have mastered it. Some merely push headlines and deals, while others have used it as a way to open a dialogue with their customers, build relationships and ultimately grow their businesses. A study by The Big Money sought to determine the dozen companies that are mastering Twitter and why they are the masters.

Facebook is implementing a new stock structure to make sure the founders retain control, immediately causing rumors about an impending initial public offering. Why would Facebook need Class A and Class B shares otherwise? Under the new structure, which is similar to Google's (GOOG), Mark Zuckerberg and other early entrants wouldn't have to worry about yielding the floor to outsiders when if the company goes public.

The stock structure was adopted to ensure that existing shareholders keep control on voting issues, according to Facebook statement. No details were given as to who the winners are in this arrangement, but a Wall Street Journal report says that, according to its sources, all current shareholders would be converted to Class B shares, which carry 10 times the voting rights of Class A shares.