The Fed's putting pressure on various exchanges to set up a clearinghouse for credit default swaps. That's the "news" this morning. News is in quotes because, first, the exchanges all want to do this, and they have wanted it for months. They need the revenue. Second, we want more than one exchange so there is competition in pricing and we don't want a sweetheart deal by a government so prone to sweetheart deals that I want to vomit every day I come to work.
Third, this is a regulatory issue and it should be done by some superbody - but please not the easily lobbied-Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which will make you put no margin down because then the fees will be huge from trading. And please not the Securities and Exchange Commission, which doesn't understand markets and has blessed a world where these are under deep cover.
Frankly, as much as I want a clearinghouse on this stuff, I don't think it is possible with these sets of regulators to get a fair one. They are just too easily lobbied by the bad guys to do the wrong thing.
And who would be the worst at this? Tim Geithner and his merry band of "everything we do is right" Federal Reserve folks. I was listening to the TV Thursday and some host was asking some guest how she thought Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was doing. She said "he's done a great job." And I found myself thinking, you have to be kidding, you can't possibly believe that, how could anyone think this guy has done a great job?
Anyway, he and Tim "Mr. Let-Me- Call-the-Media-and-Get-a-Good-Story- About-us-Because-I am-Savvy-and-I- Know-How-They-Care-About-the-Call- Back-and-Will-Praise-US" Geithner" (long and deserving hyphenated nickname) would be without a doubt the worst two to be involved in this credit default swap market because they don't play dirty and don't know how the game works. One of the reasons we are in such a jam is that SEC Chairman Christopher Cox has huge faith in the market and Bernanke has huge faith in the power of debate with people like Dick Fisher, the totally discredited Texas Fed man who was saying that inflation is the issue and it is out of control as the greatest wave of deflation overwhelms us since 1932. Fisher's an arrogant and erudite one-man wrecking crew of this economy.
If the Fed is pressuring for these exchanges then we are really in trouble.
I wonder if they even realize that Oct, 21, the day of the Lehman reckoning when we give the Wall Street gangsters their pay off on their hit jobs on Lehman, will cause the federally owned AIG (NYSE:AIG) write gigantic checks and will also reveal who guaranteed this stuff. It will most likely be lots of institutions the Fed doesn't understand or doesn't know.
Today was easy to focus on. And it was highly unpleasant. It was all about financial stocks and the meltdowns and the merger and the bailouts. The huge drop in oil after Hurricane Ike didn't kill off the oil infrastructure didn't amount to anything at all. The beatings will continue, regardless of morale. The VIX hit 30 and that only helped for a brief bit.
Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels: Dow 10,954.07 (-504.48; -4.42%) Nasdaq 2,186.66 (-81.36; -3.60%) S&P500 1,198.32 (-59.01; -4.71%) 10YR T-Note 3.483% (-0.247%) 52-Week Lows
Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) led the carnage today. Richard Fuld held out for solid merger terms too hard and it now looks like he made the entire firm pay the ultimate price. It is filing for Chapter 11 and for all practical purposes is going bye-bye. Shares were down 94% at $0.20 right before the close.
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is also on the ropes. Its shares were down 60% at $$4.78 immediately before the close. The leading insurance company in the world, or the former one anyway, is on the verge of collapse.
This morning was starting to feel pretty good despite the 5.7% unemployment rate being the highest in over four years. But then there were comments out of Israel about Iran being suddenly closer to a major break-thru in its nuclear program. You can guess what that did for oil prices, although they didn't go much over $125.00 on the news. Today's action and this week's high volatility show the markets are still fighting over for the pole position.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) will pay $250 million in Qatar's Doha stock exchange, the Doha Securities Market (DSM), in return for a 25% stake. It makes sense for NYX to expand into the Middle East as that region is becoming more financially influential.
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) is paying $410 million to buy out the rest of Symbian, a maker of operating systems for mobile phones. This move, announced just as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) said its Android system will be delayed, could help Nokia as it becomes more entrenched in the marketplace. While Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows Mobile operating system is Symbian's closest rivals, its still new kid Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone that captures the interest of many.
United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) said Monday it will cut about 950 pilot jobs out of its 6,600 pilots beginning this summer. The airline has already announced cutting 1,600 salaried positions and reduce its fleet. UAUA shares, already sliding nearly 15% Monday, continue to decline in premarket trading as airlines will likely stay in focus.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Comcast, Time Warner Cable, YRC Worldwide and Syniverse were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Soleil upgraded shares of Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE: TWC) to Buy from Hold on improving fundamentals, as they believe the economic stimulus package should drive consumer demand in 2H08.
Stephens upgraded shares of YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) to Overweight from Underweight as they believe management is making meaningful changes.
Syniverse (NYSE: SVR) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan. The firm upgraded shares based on accelerating organic growth from consumer wireless data usage.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Deutsche Bank upgraded NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Hold.
After hitting a one-year high of $714.48 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $399.01 in March. This morning, CME opened at $487.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $476.27 and a high of $487.65. As of 12:40, CME is trading at $481.03, down $8.32 (-1.7%). The chart for CME looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $550 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in six and a half weeks as long as CME is below $550 at June expiration. CME would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: The Brokers and Asset Managers sector, Pacific Sunwear and Metabasis Therapeutics were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Goldman upgraded the Brokers and Asset Management sector to Attractive from Neutral as they believe an inflection point has been reached for stocks with minimal credit exposure, or where exposure is marked to market. Goldman expects the problem to shift to regional banks and specialty finance from brokers. As such, Goldman upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), Franklin Resources (NYSE: BEN), Janus Capital (NYSE: JNS) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) to Buy from Neutral.
Wachovia upgraded Pacific Sunwear (NASDAQ: PSUN) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation, merchandising improvements, operating efficiencies, favorable product mix, and reductions in underperforming categories.
Rodman & Renshaw raised Metabasis (NASDAQ: MBRX) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation given the potential for MB07803.
OTHER UPGRADES:
HSBC raised Novartis (NYSE: NVS) to Neutral from Underweight.
UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
Nike (NYSE: NKE) unveiled its Olympics 2008 line Monday, its largest effort for the games ever. Nike actually created products in every sport at the games despite not being an official sponsor of the games like its rival Adidas. As for the U.S. team, it will be attired in Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL) garb.
If Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was upgraded Monday, today it finds itself on the flip side with a downgrade from Morgan Keegan from Market Perform to Underperform. Ummmm, contrarian is one thing, but I'm not so sure about that one. AAPL shares are down nearly 1.5% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, according to MarketWatch, Goldman Sachs has upgraded some brokers and asset managers, but is remaining cautious on regional banks, mortgage and specialty finance and REITs. American Express (NYSE: AXP), Metlife (NYSE: MET), Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK), NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and several others all were upgraded to Buy. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) and several others were cut to neutral.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cisco Systems, NYSE Euronext, Nasdaq and Cognicase were today's noteworthy initiations:
Friedman Billings believes Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) is well-positioned to take advantage of "Business 2.0" applications and to gain share in a slower economic environment. The firm initiated shares with an Outperform rating and $31 target.
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) and Nasdaq (NASDAQ: NDAQ) were assumed with a Neutral rating and $72 target and $44 target, respectively, at UBS. The firm cited increasing competition and moderating volumes.
Deutsche Bank believes Cognicase (COGI) is one of the few carriers offering high-capacity commercial Internet access to enterprise customers at a discount to nearly all of its competitors. Shares were initiated with a Buy rating and $23 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
China Housing (OTCBB: CHLN) was initiated at Merriman with a Buy rating.
Goldman started Juniper (NASDAQ: JNPR) with a Market Perform rating and $27 target.
Suntrust initiated hhgregg (NYSE: HGG) with a Buy rating and $16 target.
Once thought to be extremely safe, action rate securities have proved difficult to sell in this credit crisis. Tech companies are big holders of them and are taking charges left and right, including MetroPCS Communications Inc (NYSE: PCS), Palm Inc (NASDAQ: PALM) and Earthlink Inc (NASDAQ: ELNK), according to the Wall Street Journal.
NYSE Euronext Inc (NYSE: NYX) will look to increase its stakes in India's National Stock Exchange and the country's Multi Commodity Exchange, the Business Standard reported, once foreign ownership rules are eased. NYSE Euronext also intends to partner with the two Indian exchanges in order to help them develop their business.
WEB SITES:
Business Week reported that Brian Marckx of Zacks Investment Research said Bristol Myers Squibb Company (NYSE: BMY) may be an attractive takeover candidate for a larger pharma such as Pfizer Inc (NYSE: PFE) or France's Sanofi-Aventis SA (NYSE: SNY), both of which have been partners with Bristol on some of its products.
NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYSE: NYX) shares are rising on news that the company will purchase the American Stock Exchange for $260 million in stock. The deal will give a second U.S. license for an option exchange, and make it the nation's third-largest player in the $1.3 trillion options marketplace. An analyst at Jefferies & Co. said that the deal allows NYX both to increase its electronic trading business and remain in a traditional trading model, where it has excelled. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NYX.
After hitting a one-year high of $106.81 last January, the stock hit a one-year low of $64.26 in August. NYX opened this morning at $72.97. So far today the stock has hit a low of $72.66 and a high of $75.20. As of 10:35, NYX is trading at $72.44, up $3.35 (4.7%). The chart for NYX looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a February bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just one month as long as NYX is above $55 at February expiration. The NYSE would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money.
NYX hasn't been below $64 at all in the past year and has shown support around $70 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 2/05) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $70 where it bottomed in the late summer.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NYX.
Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: WM) reported a fourth quarter $1.87 billion loss, hurt badly by the sinking value of its mortgage portfolio. The quarterly loss was $2.19 per share, compared with a profit of $1.06 billion, or $1.10 per share in the same period last year. WaMu shares are up 2.3% in premarket trading.
Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB) said Friday profit rose 22% in the fourth quarter due to strong demand for oilfield services. The results were below Wall Street estimates and the shares are down over 3% in premarket trading. Earnings rose to $1.38 billion in the fourth quarter, or $1.12 per share, on revenue of $6.25 billion. Excluding a gain, the company's earnings rose to $1.37 billion, or $1.11 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected fourth-quarter earnings of $1.13 per share on revenue of $6.14 billion.
The exchange stocks have been hot issues in the past few quarters as investors have been betting on increased trading activity from hedge funds, higher volatility, and so on.
But just this week, exchange stocks have received a beating harder than the markets as a whole. I believe that if a snapback rally occurs next week, these stocks should bounce back harder than the overall market. Two particular exchange stocks have appealing charts: CME Group (NYSE: CME) and NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX). Both of these charts display similar characteristics, as you can see below:
This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.
If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.
The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.
Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.
The Fed's putting pressure on various exchanges to set up a clearinghouse for credit default swaps. That's the "news" this morning. News is in quotes because, first, the exchanges all want to do this, and they have wanted it for months. They need the revenue. Second, we want more than one exchange so there is competition in pricing and we don't want a sweetheart deal by a government so prone to sweetheart deals that I want to vomit every day I come to work. 
Today was easy to focus on. And it was highly unpleasant. It was all about financial stocks and the meltdowns and the merger and the bailouts. The huge drop in oil after Hurricane Ike didn't kill off the oil infrastructure didn't amount to anything at all. The beatings will continue, regardless of morale. The VIX hit 30 and that only helped for a brief bit. 
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Washington Mutual Inc. (NYSE: 
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