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Option Update: FedEx puts active into lower Q4 view on fuel costs

FedEx Corporation (NYSE-FDX) lowered Q4 EPS guidance to $1.45-$1.50 verses consensus of $1.69:


FDX was recently trading at $87.59 in after market trading, below a close of $90.37. FDX call option volume of 2,872 contracts compared to put volume of 8,038 contracts. FDX May 90 straddle went out at $3.30. FDX June option implied volatility of 34 was above its 26-week avearge of 31 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

InterContinental Exchange (ICE) falls on new proposed exchange regulations

ICE logoInterContinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) shares are falling today after the company released a statement in response to Congressional proposals to modify the operation of regulated global energy exchanges. The company called the proposals arbitrary controls that would adversely affect consumers, market prices, and the competitiveness of the U.S. markets. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on ICE.

After hitting a one-year high of $194.92 in December, the stock hit a one-year low of $110.25 in March. This morning, ICE opened at $159.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $156.07 and a high of $159.90. As of 12:00, ICE is trading at $156.57, down $3.15 (-2.0%). The chart for ICE looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $200 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in four and a half months as long as ICE is below $200 at September expiration. ICE would have to rise by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

ICE hasn't been above $195 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $167 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in late July) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance ICE might find around $195, where it topped out back in January.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ICE.

NVIDIA (NVDA) soars after earnings, upgrdaes

NVDA logoNVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) shares are trading higher today after the company reported a first-quarter profit of $176.8 million, or 30 cents per share. Although the adjusted profit of 36 cents per share missed analyst estimates of 38 cents per share, a few analysts upgraded NVDA saying margin growth and new products should improve NVDA's prospects through the year. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NVDA.

After hitting a one-year high of $39.67 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $17.31 in March. NVDA opened this morning at $22.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.97 and a high of $23.39. As of 12:00, NVDA is trading at $23.38, up 1.43 (6.5%). The chart for NVDA looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 9.9% return in just five and a half months as long as NVDA is above $17.50 at September expiration. NVIDIA would have to fall by more than 25% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

NVDA hasn't been below $17.50 by more than a few cents at all in the past year and has shown support around $22 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's next earnings (due out in mid-August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find from its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $20.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in NVDA.

ExxonMobil (XOM) slips on possible power struggle

XOM logoExxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) shares are falling today even though crude oil prices continue to make record highs as proponents of separating the chief executive and chairman roles at the company announced they will take their case to institutional investors and proxy voters. The group of dissidents includes descendants of John D. Rockefeller, the founder of Exxon's corporate ancestor Standard Oil.. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on XOM.

After hitting a one-year high of $95.27 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $77.55 in January. This morning, XOM opened at $89.37. So far today the stock has hit a low of $87.97 and a high of $89.59. As of 11:45, XOM is trading at $88.65, down 0.72 (-0.8%). The chart for XOM looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $100 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.0% return in ten weeks as long as XOM is below $100 at July expiration. Exxon would have to rise by more than 13% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

XOM hasn't been above $96 at all in the past year and has shown resistance around $95 recently. This trade could be risky if crude oil prices continue to skyrocket, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance XOM might find at $95, where it has topped out four times in the past year.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in XOM.

Option Update: Harris volatility low into WSJ report of exploring strategic options

Harris (NYSE: HRS), an electronics and defense company, is recently trading at $60.22 in pre-open trading, above its close of $54.41 Thursday.

The Wall Street Journal reported HRS has begun exploring its strategic options, and could eventually choose to sell itself, according to people familiar with the matter.

HRS overall option implied volatility of 30 is below its 26-week average of 34 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: CNOOC Ltd volatility low as oil trades at $125

CNOOC Ltd (NYSE: CEO) -- as of 12/31/06, CEO owned net proved reserves of approximately 2.53 billion barrels of oil.

CEO closed at $180.67 Thursday.

WTI Crude Futures are up 1.65% to $125.73 according to Bloomberg.

CEO over all option implied volatility of 39 is below its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: AIG volatility elevated into $7.8 billion loss

American International Group (NYSE: AIG) is recently trading at $40.34 in pre-open trading, below its close of $44.15.

AIG reported a $7.81 billion first-quarter loss and announced plans to raise $12.5 billion.

Bank of America says: "1Q: The downside of high leverage and risk taking."

AIG May option implied volatility is at 63; June is at 48; above its 26-week average of 44 according to Track Data, suggesting larger near term price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Lehman Brothers (LEH) falls on SEC testimony to Congress

LEH logoLehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) shares are falling today as an SEC official has warned that future investment banks that get into trouble may not get the same bailout that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) did. Director of Trading and Markets at the SEC Eric Sirri told the House Investment and Insurance Subcommittee that the liquidity help given to BSC may not necessarily be repeated if another bank has trouble. These words have dragged down LEH in trading yesterday afternoon and so far today. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on LEH.

After hitting a one-year high of $82.05 in June, the stock hit a one-year low of $20.25 in March. This morning, LEH opened at $44.19. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.67 and a high of $44.19. As of 12:40, LEH is trading at $42.67, down 0.97 (-2.2%). The chart for LEH looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 Stars (out of 5) Hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 14.2% return in six weeks as long as LEH is below $50 at June expiration. LEH would have to rise by more than 17% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

LEH hasn't been above $50 since mid-February and has shown resistance around $47 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid-June) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance HSY might find from its 50-day moving average, which is currently around $45.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in LEH or BSC.

General Mills (GIS) rises on upgrade

GIS logoGeneral Mills (NYSE: GIS) shares are trading higher after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Neutral," citing healthy earnings growth. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GIS.

After hitting a one-year low of $51.00 in January, the stock hit a one-year high of $62.50 last month. GIS opened this morning at $61.48. So far today the stock has hit a low of $61.33 and a high of $62.00. As of 12:54, GIS is trading at $61.58, up 0.68 (1.12%). The chart for GIS looks bullish but deteriorating slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $55 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just 6 weeks as long as GIS is above $55 at July expiration. Evergreen would have to fall by more than 10% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

GIS hasn't been below $55 by more than a few cents since February and has shown support around $60 recently. This trade could be risky if an economic recovery causes investors to rotate out of defensive stocks, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find at its 200-day moving average, which is currently around $57.50.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GIS.

Google (GOOG) lifted by analyst's comments

GOOG logoGoogle (NASDAQ: GOOG) shares are trading higher today as GOOG is holding its annual shareholders meeting today. In an AP article previewing the conference, an analyst at Canaccord Adams praised the company, saying, "If you want to invest in the Internet space, where else do you want to be but Google?" If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on GOOG.

After hitting a one-year high of $747.24 in November, the stock hit a one-year low of $412.11 in March. GOOG opened this morning at $586.20. So far today the stock has hit a low of $582.05 and a high of $589.30. As of 12:20, GOOG is trading at $585.23, up 6.23 (1.1%). The chart for GOOG looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $540 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just one week as long as GOOG is above $540 at May expiration next Friday. Google would have to fall by more than 7% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

GOOG hasn't been below $540 since rising sharply in April and has shown support around $579 recently. This trade could be risky if the economy continues to weaken and the stock reverses course, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $540, where it found some support after its initial climb after its last earnings release.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in GOOG.

Option Update: Citigroup June volatility flat at 40 into investor/analyst day

Citigroup (NYSE: C) is recently down 21 cents to $24.27. C will host an onsite Citi Investor/Analyst Day on May 9. Deutsche Bank says, "We are maintaining our Sell rating. We do not expect a grand strategic scheme." C call option volume of 116,539 contracts compares to put volume of 49,498 contracts. C May 25 straddle is priced at $1.47. C June option implied volatility of 40 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Sears Holding June put volatility up into EPS

Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) closed at $94.94 Wednesday.

SHLD is scheduled to release Q1 results on May 29.

SHLD June call option implied volatility is at 46, puts are at 56. SHLD average option implied volatility over the last 26-weeks average is 46 according to Track Data. SHLD puts are priced higher than calls because SHLD is difficult to borrow.

NASDAQ 100-QQQQ overall implied volatility at 24; 26-week average is 28.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Alcoa call volume heavy, volatility elevated

Alcoa Inc. (NYSE-AA) is recently down 30 cents to $37.70.

AA call option volume of 53,011 contracts compares to put volume of 14,940 contracts. AA May 37.5 straddle is priced at $2.90. AA May option implied volatility is at 57; June is at 47, above its 26-week average of 42 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Option Update: Cisco volatility collapses with heavy volume after outlook

Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) reported Q3 EPS of 38 cents.

Robert Baird says: "Good execution in challenging environment after the market close tonight. CSCO is recently down 2 cents to $26.32.

CSCO call option volume of 59,006 contracts compares to put volume of 88,669 contracts. CSCO May 25 straddle is priced at $1.11, below a level of $1.97 just prior to last night's EPS. CSCO June option implied volatility of 28 is below a level of 35 from yesterday and below its 26-week average of 33 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Verizon (VZ) slips on Sprint-Clearwire deal

VZ logoVerizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) shares are falling after competitor Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) announced it will collaborate with Clearwire (NASDAQ: CLWR) to form a $14.55 billion communications company. The new company will be named Clearwire, and will establish a mobile network based on the emerging WiMAX standard, which VZ has declined to adopt. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on VZ.

After hitting a one-year high of $46.24 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.00 in March. This morning, VZ opened at $38.47. So far today the stock has hit a low of $38.09 and a high of $38.72. As of 12:10, VZ is trading at $38.67, down $0.22 (-0.6%). The chart for VZlooks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $42.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in ten weeks as long as VZ is below $42.50 at July expiration. Verizon would have to rise by more than 9% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Verizon (VZ) slips on Sprint-Clearwire deal

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-120.9012,745.88
NASDAQ-5.722,445.52
S&P 500-9.401,388.28

Last updated: May 10, 2008: 06:39 PM

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