Credit cards ... the little plastic cards in your wallet that are so convenient to rely on when you are strapped for cash. While the convenience of having cards definitely makes it easier to buy items when you are running low on cash, the flip side is that credit card debt can drown the typical household, and statistics are showing that Americans are pulling out their cards more than before.
One of the reasons why credit card usage has been on the rise is the fact that homeowners are having a harder time using home equity to get a cash infusion into their accounts. As a result, they are looking to borrow money from somewhere, and more times than not, they are turning to credit cards.
The evil with credit cards is that once you start to use them to pay for your basic necessities like food and gas, you find that in the months to come you still can't afford your basic needs but in addition, your monthly bills are racking up like crazy due to your credit card expenses. It's a scary cycle that many families find themselves trapped in.
This weeks Barron's (subscription required) talks about The Next Warren Buffett. Of course nobody believes that's going to happen. The headline is cast to grab attention and sell papers, just like mine, but it's not happening: no way, no how!
Barron's discusses in it's story the strong possibilty that David Sokol, 51, the curent chairman of MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company is the most likely to succeed Buffett. MidAmerican has $39 billion in assets and is a subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A). The headline should really have read "succeed" not be the "next".
The European Central Bank and the Bank of England Thursday each kept their key, short-term interest rates the same, at 4% and 5%, respectively, the banks announced. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected both the ECB and BOE to maintain current interest rate levels.
In its previous meeting, the ECB had kept its benchmark interest the same at 4%; meanwhile, the BOE lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 5% from 5.25% on 10 April 2008.
In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its key, short-term interest rate five times, or by 325 basis points, to 2% from 5.25%, as it attempts to jump-start a U.S. economy dragged to near-stall levels by its worst housing slump in a generation.
Further, for at least the time being, the ECB and BOE do not appear to be concerned about the euro's and the pound's steady, two-year rise versus the dollar. The euro traded at $1.5383 and the pound at $1.9583 in Thursday morning trading; each is about 4% off its 2008 highs.
Yuck! If there's one drink I really dislike it's Dr. Pepper, and yet the company has managed to pick up market share against its largest rivals the past few years. Still, investors are concerned and shares of Dr. Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE: DPS) received a lukewarm welcome when they began trading today (Wednesday) on the New York Stock Exchange. The company was spun off from under former owner Cadbury Schweppes.
The company has many other brands other than Dr. Pepper and the splashy Snapple, including 7UP, Canada Dry, Schweppes, Mott's, Sunkist and RC Cola. Last year the company's sales totaled $5.7 billion.
No doubt, though, Dr. Pepper will now face the stiff competition from Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) and PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), both of which are much larger and have wider portfolios, all on its own. With rising commodity costs, competing against such larger rivals isn't going to be a picnic.
To add to investors' concerns, the company hasn't issued any near-term earnings guidance, making many would-be buyers sit on the sidelines until the now-third-largest beverage company in the U.S. -- with its 15% market share -- has a quarter or two of financial results behind it. Despite giving longer term goals of increasing annual revenue by 3-5% and EPS by 7-9%, it seems that, with the current economic climate, investors want to see actual results before they dive in.
Also, it's no secret that with consumers getting more and more health-conscious, U.S. sales of traditional carbonated soft drinks have fallen in the last few years. The company will to have to adjust and extend its portfolio appropriately if it wants to survive. That, combined with a softening economy and rising costs can only entice me to hold off on this particular stock... at least for now.
DPS shares finished the day up 45 cents, or 1.8%, to $25.50.
The ever-incisive FT columnist Martin Wolf offers prudent and timely advice concerning the reforms needed to ease credit market doldrums and right the global financial state of things.
One key practice Wolf would like to see addressed is bank / mortgage lender selling of mortgages they originate.
Designers of the practice had good intentions: It was designed to free-up capital so banks / mortgage lenders could have more money available for future homebuyers. A noble intention.
Unfortunately, as tradition reminds us, the road to perdition (and record housing sector slumps) is paved with good intentions. The problem, Wolf notes, is that the originate-and-distribute model encouraged banks / mortgage lenders to originate (in many cases for handsome fees) high-risk, very-poor-credit-quality mortgages with reckless abandon, because originators knew that the loan would be sold, and its status as a performing asset would be entirely someone else's problem. Save the best (mortgages), get rid of the rest.
It's not surprising, Wolf notes, that the originate-and-distribute model became laden with sloppy, irresponsible and even fraudulent loans. Wolf's reform: originators must be required to retain a portion of the equity of securitized loans. Hence, if / when they go bad, the originator loses money too.
Economic Analysis: Wolf's proposed financial / bond market reform is on the mark. If every party, including the originator, has a stake in a mortgage's repayment status, that will lead to higher-quality loans, while at the same time retaining the secondary market's benefit of freeing-up capital for new mortgages.
The dollar rallied to a six-week high Wednesday after U.S. productivity increased at a larger-than-expected rate and sentiment surfaced that Europe's economy may have slowed considerably.
The dollar rose about 2 cents versus the euro -- a large move in the currency market -- to $1.5370 on Wednesday afternoon. The dollar also gained against the world's other major currencies, rising about 2 cents to $1.9530 versus the British poundת about 0.5 cents to $1.0555 versus the Swiss franc and about one-half yen to 104.85 yen versus Japan's yen. U.S. productivity gives dollar a lift
Independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Wednesday the Q1 2008 productivity data, combined with a sense that the European Central Bank is behind-the-curve concerning interest rate cuts to deal with slowing economic growth, put traders in dollar-buy mode.
Meanwhile, if you are a Marvel comics fan, as I was growing up, and can't wait for the sequel, let's hope that the June 13 premiere of the The Incredible Hulk tides you over until 2010. And then, starting with Iron Man 2, you can look forward to the gates opening wide for the pantheon of Marvel Super Heroes.
The U.S. Federal Reserve Friday announced an increase in the amounts auctioned to eligible depository institutions under its biweekly Term Auction Facility (TAF) from $50 billion to $75 billion, starting with the auction on May 5.
The action brings the amounts outstanding under the TAF to $150 billion, the Fed said.
In addition, the Fed also authorized further increases in its existing temporary reciprocal currency arrangements with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank. The arrangements will now provide dollars in amounts of up to $50 billion and $12 billion to the ECB and the SNB, respectively, representing increases of $20 billion and $6 billion. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) extended the term of these reciprocal currency arrangements through January 30, 2009.
Furthermore, the Fed also authorized an expansion of the collateral that can be pledged in the Federal Reserve's Schedule 2 Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF) auctions. Primary dealers can now pledge AAA/Aaa-rated asset-backed securities, in addition to already eligible residential- and commercial mortgage backed securities and agency collateralized mortgage obligations, beginning with the TSLF auction on May 7, 2008.
Oil fell for the third straight day Thursday and neared the psychologically-significant $110 level, as data confirming a sluggish U.S. economy and the rising dollar reduced investors' demand for oil as an alternative investment.
Oil, which had traded as low as $110.80, closed down 96 cents to $112.50 per barrel. Oil hit a record high of $119.90 per barrel on April 22, 2008.
The other major energy commodities also closed substantially lower Thursday. Heating oil closed down about 6 cents to $3.10 per gallon, unleaded gasoline closed down 5 cents to $2.85 per gallon, and natural gas closed down about 25 cents to $10.59 per million BTUs.
The dollar rallied to a 5-week high Thursday on the belief the U.S. Federal Reserve will at least pause in its interest rate cutting cycle, as it evaluates the impact of both monetary and fiscal policy stimulus on the sluggish U.S. economy.
The dollar rose more than 2 cents versus the euro -- a large move in the currency market -- to $1.5440 on Thursday at mid-day. The dollar also gained against the world's other major currencies, rising about 2 cents to $1.9730 versus the British pound, about 1.7 cents to $1.0510 versus the Swiss franc, and about 1 yen to 104.50 yen versus Japan's yen.
Dollar rally 'may have legs'
Further, unlike previous fits-and-starts regarding earlier dollar moves higher, independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Thursday this dollar rally "may have legs" due to a potential change in fundamentals, in the dollar's favor.
The Fed's job is to control inflation. But is was established originally to keep financial panics from getting out of control. Since last August, it has reverted to its original role and failed miserably. Since it began cutting its Fed Funds rate 57% from 5.25% to 2.25% the price of a barrel of oil has risen 62% from $71 to $115. Simply put, the weaker the dollar, the higher the price of oil. Bloomberg News proves it -- noting that in the last year, there was a 0.96 correlation -- a correlation of 1.0 would be a completely safe bet -- between the Euro-dollar exchange rate and the price of oil.
If it bothers you to pay $3.66 for a gallon of gasoline you can thank the Fed along with cheerleader, Hank Paulson who brags that he's been talking about the U.S.'s strong dollar policy consistently. Of course saying and doing are two different things. Since January 2001, the dollar has lost 70% to the Euro. And since oil is traded in dollars, a drop in the dollar leads to a rise in price. And lower interest rates erode further the value of the dollar since it pays government bond holders a lower rate of return so they sell the U.S. currency and buy higher yielding ones.
But it's unfair to give the Fed all the blame. After all, we have been running the Federal budget at a deficit -- expected to hit $413 billion this year. Since the Fed has started cutting rates, other factors such as speculation by leveraged traders -- relying on the 0.96 correlation -- and political instability seem to have remained at the same level -- although the degree of speculation seems difficult to measure. And U.S. demand has declined due to the economic slowdown. So it looks like those dollar-weakening rate cuts are the one factor powerful enough to offset the demand slowdown to drive prices up.
The perceptive and common sense-rooted Ben Stein, in a business column in The New York Times, has weighed-in on the credit crisis, and for market absolutists, it's an argument they probably don't want to hear.
Stein, like many of us, has pondered how the massively well-paid men and women of Wall Street could create such a catastrophe. How did some of the smartest, talented executives, Stein ruminates, generate such immense losses that "they made banks clam up on lending -- at great risk to the economy?"
Compelling questions
Stein asks: Where were the fail-safe devices? The government watchdogs? The ratings agencies? A speech by Greenlight Capital hedge fund manager David Einhorn at a Grant's Interest Rate Observer event, provided the answers -- the unfortunate truths of the recent housing/credit boom -- which Stein summarized:
Last month, Stephen Schwarzman's Blackstone fund announced that its fourth-quarter earnings for 2007 had plunged a precipitous 89%. What was particularly galling was that this occurred in the same year that the fund released its IPO, for which it received top dollar. Of course, by the time this was announced, Schwarzman had already collected a $5.1 billion paycheck for 2007.
There has been some talk about how Blackstone's declining profits had led to a comparable decline in Schwarzman's fortunes. However, given his considerable 2007 salary, it doesn't seem like he's hurting all that much. In fact, he recently donated $100 million to the New York Public Library; while this is a very impressive gift, it comes with an equally impressive price: the main library building at 42nd Street and Fifth Avenue will now be named the Stephen Schwarzman Building. In return for his munificence, Schwarzman's name will be carved in five separate places on the white marble edifice: thrice on the front of the building and twice on the 42nd Street side. While this will, no doubt, be far more attractive than a graffiti "tag," one cannot escape the feeling that the concept is the same.
One Blackstone investor has recently sued the fund, claiming that, in its IPO documents, it failed to disclose key information about the unimpressive performance of some of its companies. Had this information been made available to investors, they presumably would have had lower expectations for Blackstone and would have paid considerably less for shares in it. In addition to being unethical, the suit avers that this is a violation of federal securities laws.
Every time I see a story about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) I am infuriated and bewildered. How in the world can a 13 year old company have a P/E ratio of 70 and $32 billion capitalization on 37% year over year growth. The top line growth is great and so is the growth in net earnings but does it justify a P/E of 70?
Yesterday Amazon impressed Wall Street by beating expectations in many areas. However, two areas that disappointed were it's reduced earnings projections for the year and a lack of transparency or specifics in certain segments of its enterprise. Also if earnings were lowered by 4% to 6% then why is the stock only down 3%?
The stock is down about $2 from yesterday's close of $81 fluctuating in the the high 70's. From my perspective the stock is way too high and the limited number of shareholders is still holding up the price. Last year I wrote Who owns Amazon.com - really? and not much has changed in this regard.
Would you like a couple of failed Internet page loads? I have a bucketful of them for you. Would you like your e-mail tied in knots? I can help you out there also. It's all compliments of my new HughesNet DSL connection. If it was a new car, I'd take it back to the dealer. If it was a dish rag, I'd have thrown it out by now.
And it appears that I'm not alone in my assessment of this consumer internet service from Hughes Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: HUGH). I blogged about it previously on one of our sister blogs. I've received feedback there from other Hughes customers who are as unhappy as I am with the Hughes service. Yet not one comment came to their defense. No, not one good thing have I heard.
Overall, the company's stock is doing well, and analysts are calling it a strong buy. Oscillating in a range between $48 an $55, it's holding the middle ground between its 52 week high and low. The company has made some major upgrades for its commercial customers as of late, but honestly, what is it doing for me, the little guy?
If this is the way that Hughes serves its consumer clientele, it's a good thing that it has a commercial division. Because from the way I see it, the company isn't long in the private sector. Someone needs to remind Hughes that word of mouth travels quite fast on the Internet. We're not happy out here with Hughes, and someone might find that out. In the mean time though, its stock is holding its ground.
Gary Sattler is a freelance blogger. He does not knowingly have interest in Hughes Communications, (except for the two year contract they're going to have to ride out with him.)