There is a well known investment strategy that says that investors should by stocks at Halloween and sell them at the end of April. Statistically, most market gains have occurred during that six month period, so the theory says to buy stocks then and when May comes, you should sell.
This time around, the 'buy at Halloween' plan would have been a bad move. With markets reaching their highs at the end of October, investors would have ended up buying the market high only to watch the market collapse. Now that we have finally had a good month, loyalists to the theory would have you sell.
I got a call from a client who asked what I thought about implementing the strategy on his account. I actually think that the market may be setting up for a nice spring and summer rally. It appears that the market has the potential to keep moving higher. While the economy slowed down, it didn't enter a recession, and corporate earnings have generally beaten estimates. Coupled with the economic stimulus checks that are supposed to be arriving in our mailboxes any day, this looks like the year that the 'sell in May and go away' strategy isn't going to be successful.
How about 'buy in May and watch your portfolio go up up and away!'?
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/30/08
A simple 24 hour email outage for a system upgrade has turned into a 3 day technical nightmare for Hughes Communications Inc. (NASDAQ: HUGH). Initially, the company informed customers that email service would be suspended for a 24 hour period, from 6pm Saturday, April 26 through 6pm Sunday, April 27. As of this writing, HughesNet email service is still down.
I guess one can live without email for a few more days, even though some might have important data to transmit via email. It's data which could affect one's career advancement. I guess in my case I could hand it off to my ground based mail carrier. However, because I have become quite accustomed to lackluster performance from Hughes Communications, I'm glad I'm not invested in it.
[Note from the author: Hughes email service fully restored in original format as of 04-30-08]
So they want me and all my friends to use less gasoline huh? They must tell me why we should. Do they think our driving less is going to save the planet? They should think again.
I have an alternate scenario for them, but it involves economic development and intelligent use of resources. Do I have your attention yet? If so, just read a little farther.
First, it's common knowledge that we can fuel internal combustion engines with fuels derived from sources other than petroleum. We certainly don't have to burn the food supply to do it either. Ethanol and methane for use in powering electrical generation and transportation can be created from wood scrap, trash, brush, algae and sewage. Wind, water, sun, they're all right at hand. I don't need them to give me those stories about "not economically feasible." Make it economically feasible you slackers or just admit that you're open-mouthed quacks, naysayers and charlatans lacking ingenuity and drive.
And just to carry this rant a little further, let me tell you about just a couple petroleum-based products which we could manufacture using base materials other than oil. This might be tough though, there's only about 6,000 of them. You see, only about one half of every 42 gallon barrel of oil goes into gasoline production. The rest is used for manufacturing purposes. Did the anti-gasoline fascists neglect to tell you that?
Gene Marcial has been writing the legendary column "Inside Wall Street" for Businessweek for the past 26 years. Gene has taken the collective wisdom and knowledge he has accumulated over the decades and written a brilliant book titled Gene Marcial's 7 Commandments of Stock Investing.
Gene brings the same sense of calm and logic to his book as he does to his weekly column. Having known Gene for a few years, the one characteristic that has always impressed me is his ability to separate the news from the noise. Gene doesn't go with the flow, in fact, as he aptly states in his book, it's when an investor goes contrary to the flow is when the best buying opportunities present themselves.
Gene has spoken with thousands of Wall Street insiders over the decades and has taken the very best of the many he respects. Gene's book is an easy read and full of real world experiences and examples. Investors can relate to real stories versus "theoretical "concepts that begin with company ABC.
It looks like European banks have been hit much harder by the subprime crisis than U.S. banks. Last week, UBS (NYSE: UBS) wrote off about $19 billion, and today we have news that Royal Bank of Scotland (NYSE: RBS) suffered an $11.7 billion loss. We haven't seen numbers like that in the U.S. and this may be a story that needs to get more play. The European banking system is in far worse shape than the banks on our side of the Atlantic, and the impact that will have on global growth should not be underestimated.
Keep in mind that nothing like the FDIC or SIPC exists in Europe, so a major bank failure could be catastrophic for consumers. Banks have started tightening credit, and the once red-hot real estate sector has cooled, especially in places like Poland. I have friends who are in the real estate business in Eastern Europe and they say things have really slowed down.
"In a new paradigm where risk will become a paranoid obsession with investors, a few TIPS make sense for income," says long-standing advisory industry expert Curtis Hesler.
In his The Professional Timing Service, he highlights the role of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities within a long-term portfolio and reviews two ways for investors to purchases these issues.
"You can buy them in your Treasury Direct account. If you don't have a Treasury Direct account, you can open one at www.treasurydirect.gov. The problem is that so far, you can't open a retirement account - only an individual account. Go to the Treasury Direct Web site and bone up on all the details, especially if you are going to buy them online.
"TIPS work this way. They are U.S. government bonds issued by the Treasury. They are marketable in that you can sell them in the 'after' market. They come in terms of 5, 10, and 20 years. The interest rate on an issue is determined at auction, and they are sold in increments of $1,000.
I have had some clients ask me, what industry I think will benefit from the $600 rebate checks that are due to be sent out as part of the U.S. economic stimulus package. I think airlines will benefit, especially lower cost carriers like Southwest (NYSE: LUV) and Jet Blue (NASDAQ: JBLU).
The USA Today has an article about the kind of vacation you can have for $600. The article says: "With most Americans expecting to receive a tax rebate of up to $600 ($1,200 for married couples), there are plenty of ways to get the most vacation for your buck, say travel experts. Whether it's a cruise, a tropical paradise, or family travel, these trips can all be done for under $600 a person."
Because we aren't talking about flying around the world or across the Atlantic for that measure, trips to Las Vegas or Orlando, for example, will fit the family, and of course people need a way to get to these destinations, so that's how the airlines become interesting. Throw into the mix potentially stable or even lower fuel costs, and for investors looking for a way to play the "Rebate check" game, you may want to take a look at the airlines.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 4/2/08
While getting grilled by opportunistic lawmakers on Capitol Hill, about soaring gas prices and how senior executives are able to live with themselves knowing they are making such large profits, J.S. Simon, CEO of Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), let the cat out of the bag. Responding to questions from Rep. Edward Markey as to why Exxon hasn't invested in alternative energy, the AP reported the following exchange:
"Why is Exxon Mobil resisting the renewable revolution," asked Markey.
Simon said his company, which earned $40 billion last year, had provided $100 million on research into climate change at Stanford University, but that current alternative energy technologies "just do not have an appreciable impact" in addressing "the challenge we're trying to meet."
While the overall numbers of those American homeowners whose homes are getting foreclosed may be around -- to use Jim Cramer's statistic -- 1 in 550, I have to assume there are a lot more people getting closer to this point. When incomes are somewhat stagnant and housing prices are down, a lot of us can no longer tap our house to access more money. So what happens in a worst case scenario?
Bankruptcy seems to be a viable option for more and more Americans. In Arming against foreclosure, MarketWatch examines measures being taken at the legislative level to help Americans ward off foreclosure. One interesting proposal mentioned is one "that consumer advocates see as key to helping more people stay in their homes: allowing bankruptcy courts to modify troubled mortgages on primary residences."
Currently, bankruptcy law cannot enact measure to modify the mortgage on a primary residence, forcing homeowners to find different solutions to keep their homes. Consumer advocates are pushing for new measures to allow for bankruptcy law to act as an "efficient and established method for troubled homeowners to make good" on their debts, particularly their mortgages.
For a lot of people, declaring bankruptcy and leaving their homes may make financial sense if the debts on the home now exceed the value of the home. In this case, homeowners would be going long bankruptcy and short the housing market.
It's a tough trade.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that the $600 rebate checks may create hundreds of thousands of new jobs. According to a Reuters report: "We know they're going to be helpful," Paulson said on CNN television. "These checks should be a big part of adding 500,000 to 600,000 additional jobs this year."
How can $600 create 600,000 jobs? With consumers pouring $168 billion back into the economy from these checks, the actual effect this will have on the economy could be double that amount. While no one can start a business on $600, the cumulative effect of 130 million Americans spending these checks will certainly add many to the employment rolls. I am not sure if you can pinpoint a number, but the rebate will definitely help.
If the government is going to get involved in trying to stimulate the economy, outside of tax cuts, this is the best way. Let individuals make the spending decisions that they think they need to make. This will prove to be much more effective than having the government funnel billions of dollars to some project. That method has been proven to be a black hole, as the government sends more and more money, while the bureaucrats claim it's not enough and ask for -- and get -- more. And the problem never gets fixed.
Let's see how accurate Paulson's projection will turn out to be.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 3/28/08.
In an interview with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo, Presidential candidate Barack Obama started to spell out his economic plan. Obama said that he would raise capital gains taxes, "Well, you know, I haven't given a firm number. Here's my belief, that we can't go back to some of the, you know, confiscatory rates that existed in the past that distorted sound economics. And I certainly would not go above what existed under Bill Clinton, which was the 28 percent. I would--and my guess would be it would be significantly lower than that. I think that we can have a capital gains rate that is higher than 15 percent."
Just because the Senator got rich from his book doesn't mean that the rest of us should be punished for trying to grow our savings and our investments. Why should the middle-class have to pay higher capital gains tax so that Obama can bailout irresponsible home buyers?
Hasn't he learned economics? It's pretty clear that if you punish and make it harder for wealth creation and investment, that there won't be as much, and as a result the economy will get much worse.
I grew up in Miami. Yes, I was born and raised there and am under 40-years-old. One of the few. I love the city. I love the people. I love the Latin flavor of the town, its food and nightlife. I also enjoyed owning and selling a home there in the early 2000s.
Things are different now. Homeowners have been hit with the downside of a strong housing market and have seen prices snapback much greater than some other parts of the country. After seeing a pullback in net worth, Floridians have been tightening their belts this year in some creative and not-so-creative ways.
Today's Bloomberg has an article about how the changes in the Florida housing market are being dealt with by Dolphins fans. Floridians, and Miami residents in particular, are dining out less, seeing fewer movies, foregoing on travel plans, and in some extreme cases, drinking less expensive beer.
According to Bloomberg, Miami real estate prices fell 19.3% year-over-year in January, tied with Las Vegas for the largest drop among 20 metro areas. Some homeowners feeling the pinch are no longer drinking Guinness and Royal Extra beers, but instead buy something domestic and cheaper.
This change in net worth is real and is affecting consumption decisions. While it hurts everyone involved, the process of (trying!) to realign the split between assets and debts is ultimately a healthy one for our country and something, I believe, will help strengthen the U.S. dollar and regain respect for American ingenuity, strength and democratic values around the globe.
Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com ,a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund, and a proud former Floridian.
My first reaction to the news today that Citigroup (NYSE:C) has settled claims by Enron creditors to the tune of $1.66 billion due to their responsibility in Enron's downfall, was that the two firms were meant for each other.
According to the Reuters report: " The largest U.S. bank is also giving up $4.25 billion of claims against Enron, while Enron is releasing all claims against Citi. The bank said in a statement that it denies wrongdoing, and agreed to the settlements solely to avoid the expense and uncertainty of litigation."
Uh huh. No wrongdoing. Just like it bears no responsibility in the whole subprime mess? Why is it that shareholders are the ones always left holding the bag? Investors in Citi have lost over 60% of their money over the last year. That hasn't stopped the board from paying huge bonuses to senior executives, and sending off former CEO Chuck Prince with a huge parting gift.
Enron didn't take any responsibility, Citigroup won't take any responsibility. Who are the ones who end up taking responsibility? Once again it's the little guy who is left holding the bag.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 3/26/08
While he should be commended for opening up his tax records, Democratic Presidential front-runner Barack Obama and wife Michelle should be embarrassed at the negligible amount of money donated to charity. According to a report in Bloomberg.com, " Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and his wife Michelle gave $10,772 of the $1.2 million they earned from 2000 through 2004 to charities, or less than 1 percent, according to tax returns for those years released today by his campaign."
To be fair to them they did up their giving a bit in '05-'06 after they cashed in on his book. Interesting to note that in that 2-year span they brought in $2.6 million. $2.6 million later and Michelle is still not proud to be an American. Humm???
For someone who believes that we need to change society and make things better, he sure sets a lousy example. After all, I thought he is all about giving back to the community. Well the community can't do very much with a couple of bucks.
Once again we find the hypocrisy of politicians. They know best how to make society better, and they have no problem taxing us to pay for it. But when it comes time for the politician to open up his own wallet, suddenly some excuse arises and they are unable to do so. Isn't that called a double standard?
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 3/25/08.
So you've been on the job for three years but the boss won't cut you a raise. Is that your problem, friend? Perhaps the solution to your problem rests in your own hands. If you can prove you're deserving of a raise in salary and you take the appropriate steps to get one, an increase in taxable income just might be in your future. Take a look at the following informative video to gain some insight on effective paycheck building strategy. If you employ the tactics discussed in this video, and you still can't get a raise, it might be time to seek a new employer. I believe that you have every right to expect appropriate compensation for exemplary job performance, even if that means getting it from a new company.