What's fertilizer company Potash Corp. Saskatchewan (POT), the subject of takeover interest and first discussed here on March 3, 2009, at a price of $80.81, worth?

Good question. One thing is certain: it's worth a lot more than $150 per share. Potash rose $3.33 to $153.00 on Monday at mid-day.

Potash's board unanimously prudently rejected BHP Billiton's (BHP) woeful $130 per share offer. To be sure, BHP wasn't trying to insult POT's board, but a $130 per share bid came close to achieving that ignominious result.

Today was one of those Fridays that felt bad most of the trading day. It was an options expiration date today, and there was no domestic economic news to drive the markets. PC earnings failed to ignite interest and sellers had most of a quiet Friday in August to themselves.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA
S&P500
NASDAQ

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Major Stocks on 52-Week Lows

Reportedly, Potash (POT) is considering joining forces with global firms that would be able to present an offer to compete with BHP Billiton's (BHP) $38.6 billion bid.

According to The Wall Street Journal, people "familiar with the matter" stated that there could be a global consortium in the works to make a counteroffer for Potash. BHP has gone straight to Potash shareholders with its offer of $130 per share.

Today was soft on solid economic data, and a conflicting oil report this morning versus last night only added more confusion. A rally came on in the afternoon and the markets appeared to all manage to hold on to very small gains at the closing bell.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,415.54 +9.69 (0.09%)
S&P 500 1,094.16 +1.62 (0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,215.70 +6.26 (0.28%)

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Analyst Upgrades

• TD Newcrest upgraded Agrium (AGU) to action list buy from hold based on a higher valuation supported by BHP's (BHP) bid for Potash (POT). The firm raised its price target for Agrium to $95 from $76.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Weingarten Realty (WRI) to outperform from market perform, citing valuation and stronger retail occupancy.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Aegon (AEG) to buy from hold after the company won European Union approval for its recapitalization using state aid.
• HCP Inc. (HCP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.
• MedAssets (MDAS) was upgraded to buy from accumulate at Madison Williams.
• BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.

In the wake of the BHP Billiton's (BHP) failed $39 billion offer and its new hostile $40 billion takeover bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), agricultural fertilizer companies, including CF Industries Holdings (CF), are starting to look pretty juicy to investors.

Fertilizer companies have been struggling during the past few years as cash-strapped farmers have been pulling back on their purchases, but the tide appears to be changing.

With rising prices for crops like wheat and corn, it is starting to look like it is going to be a really good year for U.S. farmers, which means they are going to have plenty of money to reinvest in new machinery and more fertilizer.

Potash (POT) rejected a $130 per share buyout proposal from BHP Billiton. POT closed up $31.02 to $143.17. POT call option volume of 170K contracts compares to put volume of 115K contracts. September put option implied volatility is at 37, December is at 32; verses its 26-week average of 38 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing December price movement.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is closed up 88 cents to $29.74. LVS call option volume of 79K contracts compares to put volume of 30K contracts. August put option implied volatility is at 44, September is at 47, December is at 56; verses its 26-week average of 61 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing near term price risk.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

It is supposed to be Mondays that are the day of mergers. Three deal announcements this morning offered a large boost in investor confidence and production data allowed traders to put a portion of "The Risk Trade" back on. Depending upon the index, some stock indexes had been down six days.

Here were the unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,405.85 +103.84 (1.01%)
S&P 500 1,092.55 +13.17 (1.22%)
Nasdaq 2,209.44 +27.57 (1.26%)

Potash (POT) has turned down a takeover offer by BHP Billiton Limited (BHP). According to the Canadian giant, the deal was rejected because BHP's bid was "grossly inadequate." POT's board unanimously rejected BHP's offer of $130 per share in cash -- noting that the offer does not accurately reflect the value of POT's position in the industry, the value of planned expansions, and the value of POT's investments. The $130-per-share offer is a 16% premium over POT's Monday close of $112.15.

It sure seems that BHP was trying to score a major takeover with a lowball offer. Unfortunately for BHP, POT noted that there is a turnaround taking place in the fertilizer sector and BHP was simply trying to take advantage of the company.

Bullish bets are popular on Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), according to data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE). During the past 10 days, speculators on the ISE have bought to open 2.03 calls for every put on POT, and this ratio ranks higher than 91% of other such readings taken during the previous year. In other words, options players on the ISE have purchased calls over puts at a faster pace just 9% of the time.

On Friday alone, the ISE reports that traders bought to open 2,031 calls on POT, compared to just 347 calls. The day's most popular strike was POT's January 2011 150-strike call, where 5,147 contracts changed hands -- 52% at the ask price, confirming a bias toward buying activity. Open interest on this LEAPS strike swelled over the weekend by 4,561 contracts, and now stands at 6,188 total positions.

Today was one of those down days that was hardly a down day. It is a loss that might as well be a wash or gain because the losses were so small. The weekly jobless claims data did no favors for those hoping for a solid jobs number Friday morning. Retail sales were another source of caution considering that the comparisons from last July should have been very easy.

Here were today's closing bell levels:

Dow Jones 10,674.98 -5.45 (-0.05%)
S&P 500 1,125.81 -1.43 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,293.06 -10.51 (-0.46%)

Was today added concern over the G-20 causing longer-term slower growth? Or was it failing consumer confidence? It started out as the G-20, and then it was added to by the latter. The markets saw significant selling pressure, and the biggest concern now is that Friday's unemployment and non-Farm payrolls data will be even worse than expected.

Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:

DJIA
S&P
NASDAQ

Winners on a Bad Day

Analyst Upgrades

• UBS upgraded Potash (POT) to buy from neutral and raised its price target to $112 from $106. UBS raised its 2011 potash production estimates based on expectations for a tighter market and notes the potential for China to import substantial amounts of corn.
• BMO Capital upgraded Peabody Energy (BTU) to outperform from market perform. The firm, which has a $49 target on the stock, cites valuation for the upgrade.
• Janney Montgomery upgraded City Holding (CHCO) to buy from neutral with a $37 price target, citing the recent pullback in shares.
• Boston Scientific (BSX) was upgraded to sell from conviction sell at Goldman.
• Pegasystems (PEGA) was upgraded to buy from hold at Roth Capital.
• Wendy's/Arby's (WEN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at SunTrust.

Analyst Upgrades

• Soleil upgraded Potash (POT) to hold from sell due to valuation. The firm maintains a $100 price target for shares.
• FBR Capital upgraded Arkansas Best (ABFS) to market perform from underperform after the company reached a tentative agreement with the Teamsters to amend its existing contract to include a 15% wage concession. The firm has a $34 price target for shares.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Zions Bancorp (ZION) to market perform from underperform following the company's Q1 results and raised its target for shares to $25 from $17.
• Apache (APA) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Macquarie.
• MGM Mirage (MGM) wasupgraded to conviction buy from buy at Goldman.
• Monster Worldwide (MWW) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.

"We believe many outstanding buying opportunities are available among these undervalued foreign stocks; we screened the Zacks, Investors Business Daily, S&P and Value Line databases to find foreign companies with rapidly growing earnings," says J. Royden Ward.

The editor of Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter explains, "We believe these six companies offer excellent appreciation potential at reasonable prices: Lululemon Athletica (LULU), Mindray Medical (MR), Potash (POT), Seagate Technology (STX), Silver Wheaton (SLW) and Telefonica SA (TEF)."