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CenturyLink: Broadband Services Growth Play

Telecom/broadband play CenturyLink Inc. (CTL), formerly known as CenturyTel, first discussed here on November 4, 2010, at a price of $43.05, has exhibited sideways action for the past three months or so, but I still like the shares. Here's why:

CenturyLink's 2011 revenue to rise about 5% on acquisition-based growth,

Louisiana-based CenturyLink is a rural telephone carrier that operates in small and mid-sized cities in 23 states. Its acquisition of Embarq increased its telephone access lines to about 7.3 million and 2.4 million DSL/broadband subscribers.

Continue reading CenturyLink: Broadband Services Growth Play

Are Dividend Rates About to Drop 29%?

Is it time to dump dividend stocks before the Bush tax cuts expire? In 2001 and 2003 Bush, passed several tax relief bills that will automatically expire at the end of 2010. Obama campaigned against the tax relief packages and many Americans may be facing a huge tax increase as the package expires.

Dividend taxation is of particular concern to investors. Under the relief packages, dividends taxes were cut to 15%, but if the package expires, dividends may be taxed as ordinary income at levels up to 39.6%.

Continue reading Are Dividend Rates About to Drop 29%?

Dun & Bradstreet Tops Bullish Volatility Skews; Qwest Tops Bearish

Option investors are pushing call option prices higher in the Information & Delivery Services industry and are pushing put option prices higher in the Telecom Services - Domestic industry today.

Any time the volatility skews above 1.00, it is an indication that calls are more expensive than puts. Typically, when calls are more expensive than puts, it means the demand for calls is greater than the demand for puts because investors believe the stock is going to rise in the future and they want to take advantage of that movement by buying calls.

The opposite is also true. Any time a volatility skews below 1.00, it is an indication that puts are more expensive than calls.

Continue reading Dun & Bradstreet Tops Bullish Volatility Skews; Qwest Tops Bearish

Analyst Calls: WDC, Q, HSY, BWLD, NOK, COP, KFT, VZ ...

Analyst upgrades

  • Deutsche Bank upgraded Sonoco Products (SON) to buy from hold after the company reported Q1 results and raised guidance. The firm upped its target for shares to $38 from $32.
  • Baird upgraded Western Digital (WDC) to outperform from neutral following the solid Q3 report and guidance. The firm raised its target to $50 from $48.
  • Goldman upgraded Qwest (Q) to neutral from sell. Qwest is being acquired by CenturyLink (CTL).
  • Hershey (HSY) was upgraded to neutral from underweight at JPMorgan.
  • Principal Financial (PFG) was upgraded to neutral from sell at UBS.
  • Monster Worldwide (MWW) was upgraded to market perform from underperform at Wells Fargo.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: WDC, Q, HSY, BWLD, NOK, COP, KFT, VZ ...

Before the Bell: Futures Lower on Earnings, Mixed Economic Data

U.S. stock market futures fell Thursday on renewed concerns over Greece's debt problems. Several earnings report, particularly in the telecom sector, disappointed, while a big merger in the sector is also in focus. Investor are also digesting mixed economic data reported today.

Global markets declined Thursday after Eurostat, the EU's statistics office, said Greece's budget deficit would be wider than first estimated. This drove Greek bond yields higher, widening their spread over benchmark euro zone bonds. The cost of insuring Greek debt against default also rose. The euro also fell following the news.

Continue reading Before the Bell: Futures Lower on Earnings, Mixed Economic Data

Options Update: Qwest Volatility Low into Agreement to Merge with CenturyLink

CenturyLink (CTL) and Qwest Communications (Q) announced that their boards of directors have approved a definitive agreement under which CenturyLink will acquire Qwest in a tax-free, stock-for-stock transaction. Under the terms of the agreement, Qwest shareholders will receive 0.1664 CenturyLink shares for each share of Qwest common stock they own at closing. Q overall option implied volatility of 31 is below 26-week average of 40, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Goldman Sachs (GS) closed at $158.93. GS overall option implied volatility of 35 is near its 26-week average of 33, according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Earnings Highlights: Campbell, Dell, Goodyear, JCPenney, Merck, Playboy ...

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) lower Q4 earnings topped estimates and same-store sales also declined.
  • Campbell Soup Co. (CPB) reaffirmed its earnings outlook but lowered its revenue forecast for the full year.
  • Daimler AG (DAI) provided guidance for the year that included slashing its dividend, sending shares lower.
  • Dell Inc. (DELL) lower Q4 earnings beat estimates by a penny but it didn't offer guidance, sending shares lower.
  • Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. (GT) easily topped Q4 earnings estimates and revenue increased as well.

Continue reading Earnings Highlights: Campbell, Dell, Goodyear, JCPenney, Merck, Playboy ...

Qwest's Q4: Many Declines, Yet Stock Sees a Bid

Here's another one of those stocks that I didn't buy and then found myself sadly watching from the sidelines as it rose higher. A year ago, I proffered a bearish reading on the prospects for telecom entity Qwest Communications (Q). Well, shares of Qwest have done well over the last twelve months. Should I now allocate some investment capital to this idea?

One might argue yes. After all, the company is up at the time of this writing on the Q4 numbers. However, I just don't feel compelled to buy. Especially not after all the declines I see in the release.

Continue reading Qwest's Q4: Many Declines, Yet Stock Sees a Bid

Lowball bids prompt Qwest to yank long-distance unit from auction block

Qwest Communications International (NYSE: Q) is moving lower today after the telecom firm pulled its long-distance phone network off the auction block. The company was attempting to sell its long-distance assets to help generate cash, but reports indicate that bids for the unit were unacceptably low.

Last week, The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that bids for the unit came in below $1 billion, citing sources familiar with the matter. Qwest, which has a debt load of $560 million maturing in 2009, was seeking $2 billion to $3 billion for the business.

Continue reading Lowball bids prompt Qwest to yank long-distance unit from auction block

Earnings highlights: Viacom, UBS, RIM, ArcelorMittal, Lions Gate, McAfee and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Viacom, UBS, RIM, ArcelorMittal, Lions Gate, McAfee and others

Qwest's Q4 doesn't change my opinion

Fiber-optic entity Qwest Communications (NYSE: Q), whose colleagues include Verizon (NYSE: VZ), AT&T (NYSE: T), and Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S), reported Q4 numbers on Tuesday. Revenues declined by 3%, and adjusted income came in at 12 cents per share, which, according to this article, beat estimates by two pennies.

Well, I have to say, I've been wrong about Qwest. When I last wrote about the tech company, I had a very bearish view. I think Qwest's stock gained a buck since that piece, which is like a huge percentage gain when you consider that the shares closed yesterday at $3.45. The market seems to be liking Qwest's prospects. Going back to that article I cited concerning the earnings beat, I see some positive opinion on Qwest's quarter. I'll agree, it wasn't bad, especially when the economy is considered. The company did well in terms of cash flow: cash from operations for the year was roughly flat while adjusted free cash flow came in at $1.4 billion.

Continue reading Qwest's Q4 doesn't change my opinion

Stocks in the news: UBS, GS, BA, Q, SBUX, FNM, FRE, GM (update)

UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) missed analyst estimates when it reported Tuesday it lost a larger-than-expected 8.1 billion Swiss francs ($7.57 billion) in the fourth quarter. Estimates put the loss at 6.2 billion francs ($5.79 billion). It also announced it would cut another 2,000 jobs. Apparently, this could have been far worse as UBS benefited from an accounting adjustment. UBS shares gained nearly 7% in premarket trading as Switzerland's largest bank also reported an "encouraging" start to the year. UBS shares soared over 10% by 10 am.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS)
joined the last few financial institutions to move, cancel or change their meeting and conference plans. It has moved a three-day conference from the Las Vegas Strip to San Francisco as many scrutinize bank activities these days following them taking bailout funds. Still, according to anonymous sources, the cancellation itself will cost Goldman $600,000. GS shares opened lower.

Continue reading Stocks in the news: UBS, GS, BA, Q, SBUX, FNM, FRE, GM (update)

Stock pick and pans for troubled times: DIS, Q, RTN, RIMM, GIS, BIDU, STE ...

This week was saved today as the White House finally approved a $17.4 billion auto bailout package using TARP money. Stocks were stable after two days of decline, but all-in-all the week wasn't bad. It's the third week now that stocks, while perhaps having big swings daily, end up not so bad.

Once again, this stagnant time could be exactly the time investors may want to look for long-term deals. They may have to hold on to them for a while as the markets continue their up and down swings. But eventually, if it's a few months or a year from now, stocks will start to recover and cheap deals bought today may be big gainers.

But where are the deals? BloggingStocks contributors added some ideas this week:

The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) is one of Jamie Dlugosch's favorite blue-chip names. Analysts expect the company to make $2.12 per share in the current fiscal year ending in September. If the company earns $3 per share down the road with a 15 multiple, Disney shares could double. In the meantime, it pays 1.5% dividend yield.

Qwest Communications International (NYSE: Q) has many shortcomings to be sure, but "the company also has very valuable assets and strong cash flow" and the stock "would command a good premium in a takeover." according to George Putnam.

Continue reading Stock pick and pans for troubled times: DIS, Q, RTN, RIMM, GIS, BIDU, STE ...

Qwest (Q) for profits: Turnaround or takeover?

"Investors have been focusing on the shortcomings at Qwest Communications International (NYSE: Q), and to be sure, it has plenty," observes turnaround specialist George Putnam.

In his The Turnaround Letter, he adds, "But the company also has very valuable assets and strong cash flow. In addition, we believe the stock would command a good premium in a takeover." Here's his bullish review.

"Following its IPO in 1995, Qwest expanded via acquisitions and partnerships, and participated in the telecom bubble of the late 1990's.

"Unlike many of the other high-flying telecoms of that era, however, Qwest realized that in addition to a story you needed customers. In 2000, it went out and acquired US West, which gave Qwest the revenue base to survive the bursting of the telecom bubble

"Although the company survived, the shareholders have had a rocky ride during the current decade. The stock peaked around 60 in 2000, dropped to just above 1 in 2002, rebounded to 10 in 2007 and then declined to its present level.

"Management's challenge is too maximize the value of its assets. One of Qwest's greatest assets, and biggest challenges, is its huge traditional landline telephone business. The landline business is in a slow but steady decline as customers move to wireless or Internet telephony.

Continue reading Qwest (Q) for profits: Turnaround or takeover?

Financial Felon? Joseph Nacchio

This post is part of a feature in which we wonder whatever happened to some notorious financial figures. See the other 17.

As Wall Street implodes around us, the word "hubris" is getting tossed around quite a bit. Hubris -- also known as excessive, overweening pride -- has become the catchall explanation for most of the market's ills. Our financial system has gone up in flames, we're told, simply because so many CEOs and regulators thought they were too smart to fail, no matter how highly leveraged their subprime mortgage portfolios may have been.

Assuming this is true, let's call Joseph Nacchio a trendsetter. As the chief executive of Qwest Communications International (NYSE: Q), Nacchio was determined to construct the world's biggest, best, and most totally awesome fiber-optic network. (Mind you, this was back in the late '90s, when the telecom bubble was just a glimmer in the market's eye.) However, the plucky CEO was driven not by a personal commitment to excellence, but rather by spite.

Nacchio left his old job at AT&T (NYSE: T) because he wasn't granted a plum promotion to president, which he felt he so richly deserved. What better way to show up his former employer than to build a superior network and steal away market share?

Unfortunately, Nacchio's impure motivations were not the best recipe for success. To give you some idea as to how his plans for world telecom domination played out, check out this blog entry I wrote about Qwest and Joseph Nacchio as part of our series on the worst S&P 500 stocks of the past 25 years.

Continue reading Financial Felon? Joseph Nacchio

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Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+12.0712,896.02
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S&P 500+3.461,353.42

Last updated: February 09, 2012: 03:30 PM

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