All swans were thought to be white until someone happened to come across a black one. All Toyota's were thought to be well made until someone discovered, oh, say, maybe two million cars that might not be -- part of a cautionary vehicle recall.

If you are a shareholder of Toyota Motor Corp. (TM) which past GM as the largest automobile manufacturer last year -- oddly, the same year it reported its first losses (along with everyone else) -- then you now have a first hand experience of the inherent problems or uselessness in trying to predict where trouble may arise.

Shortly after the introduction of Apple, Inc.'s (AAPL) long anticipated iPad tablet computer I was quite surprised to receive an email from one of our more astute readers boldly stating "Game, set and match. See you at $300"

My immediate reaction was that this overly zealous stock trader and Apple enthusiast had let all reason escape his cranium. For me it reinforced how irrational investors are and how little they understand numbers. Apple stock will not reach $300 this year.

Tomorrow we are not going to see people landing on Mars, or North and South Korea unite, or the end of poverty and disease. However, the long awaited Apple (AAPL) tablet computer will be unveiled and from all the excitement it has generated it might even be bigger news than that.

It seems everyone is anticipating that Apple's latest device will have the ability to balance the federal budget and eliminate the deficit. After all the hype anything less may disappoint.

A new year is upon us and like the beginnings of any year, and even more so, a decade, the predictions are flying fast and furious.

The start of 2010 is bringing out every analyst, talking head, business journalist, periodical and newsletter propagator, sportscaster, palm reader, taro card interpreter, astrologist, medium and madam making predictions to garner attention, entertain and even profit. Apologies to anyone I left out.

Best wishes to all and, next to world peace among people, we should hope for the same among world markets.

I have let some time pass before commenting on a recent example of how fragile a world we live in. This past year through a time of greater economic danger, fear and volatility than most of us has experienced in a life time, many people cannot fathom how close we came to the edge of Hades.

AOL (AOL) has been independent from Time Warner (TWX) for two weeks and I have gotten used to the multiple logos. Probably of greater significance is that the the stock is trading at $24, just above where it ended in after hours trading its first day -- Yippee! (my loyalty prevents me from Yahoo!-ing).

Interestingly, the stock has not only been very stable in the last two weeks (to my surprise), but in examining the opportunities to trade various stock options there is very little anticipated volatility through July.

Yes I am picking Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) over Apple Inc. (AAPL) in 2010.

Last week I suggested in two separate posts that Apple investors potential gains going forward in 2010 would be far less rewarding than in 2009. The issue first came up in Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 9 + Apple where I was simply reviewing Apple for inclusion in the ten but some of the faithful (sometimes over zealous) took exception to this.

The stock having reached an all time high last month was part of what lead me to write, "Sure it is possible that Apple comes out with another winning product but that rampant speculation is among the things that have driven the stock price to where it is. I think the downside outweighs the upside by a large margin so I will pass on this one."

Some of the comments I received only made my case stronger.

After reading an unbelievable sell recommendation by one of my BloggingStocks colleagues, I didn't know whether to laugh or cry. In Thirteen Dow stocks that are doomed, we are informed that 13 of the 30 are going down and we should all bail out before it is too late.

I find this silly on many levels. For one, 13 stocks amount to a large-cap index fund and since large-cap stocks have lagged the market the probability that they will outperform going forward is real and has many investors promoting them.

The amount of nonsense I come across misleading readers, or simply providing bad advice, makes me cringe. Sometimes our own site presents such information like discussing penny stocks and technical analysis.

In general, I distinguish bad advice, misleading or misguided information from that regarding a stock idea that simply did not pan out, of which I have been guilty too -- all of us have hits and misses. However, a post I read on Seeking Alpha promoting gold, with suggestions of doom by tailoring the data to fit the theory. The author supported his point by back-testing only ten years to a known low water mark.

If you're into Apple (AAPL) or gold for the long term and you have been in for a long time you can stay put. If you are in them to make a quick buck, get out quickly!

Apple and gold are at all time highs. Yes, they may go higher, but not much and not soon.

The reason is that both Apple and gold (and probably golden apples) already include all the product info and inflation fears that could be. The next level is pure speculation. Do you want to speculate or invest? If the latter, invest elsewhere.

In the wee morning hours just prior to the market opening I had given some thought to shorting AOL Inc. (AOL) on its first day as a newly independent company. Yes, that same company that owns Bloggingstocks.com and a multitude of other interesting Internet "content" icons (and some not yet so). However, I did not do it because it would have been too impulsive and that is rarely a good investment strategy.

I was stunned that we changed our logo. And we changed it to what seems like a team of logos instead of one. That seems bizarre to me if you're trying to build a brand. It is also ironic since we are planning on making money on advertising, and we will be muddling our own brand.

Ben Bernanke, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to testify before Congress on December 3rd. The hearings will determine whether he will be confirmed for another term.

Bernanke is faced with increasing criticism for his handling of the financial crisis and lack of transparency. Representative Ron Paul has a bill before the House demanding an accounting of what the Fed has done with all the money it is spending.

The only thing that has been devalued faster than our precious dollar is the perpetual slide in government credibility. Over the years we have heard countless times about the importance of a strong dollar from our leaders.

"Our administration believes in and will do everything in its power to support a strong dollar" or something like this has been spewed out by Republicans and Democrats alike, yet there is little evidence that the policies put in place over the past century have done anything of the sort. Perhaps there was one person that took the heat and did the right thing -- Paul Volcker, during the Carter administration, who had to deal with dizzying inflation.

In this week's (November 9) Preview Section of Barron's (subscription required) I was surprised to find that on Wednesday (11/9) it is noted that Computer Sciences (CSC), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Macy's (M) reported "profits." How do they know this?

On other days they refer to the "earnings" of various companies reporting. Perhaps I am splitting hairs, perhaps it is editorial haste (like you might find on our site), or perhaps there is no difference in some people's minds? From my perspective there is a difference between earnings and profits. Every quarter, public companies report their earnings. They do not always report a profit.

Yesterday it was announced very loudly that "my pal Warren" was going to acquire the 77.4% of the Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI) railroad, that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) does not already own, for $100 per share, offering about a $24 premium to Mondays closing price.

Talk about putting your money where your mouth is -- yikes! Buffett has gone all in, betting the economy is healing, and silencing anyone that questioned his integrity or motives for cautious optimism saying it was all talk!