Credit cards ... the little plastic cards in your wallet that are so convenient to rely on when you are strapped for cash. While the convenience of having cards definitely makes it easier to buy items when you are running low on cash, the flip side is that credit card debt can drown the typical household, and statistics are showing that Americans are pulling out their cards more than before.

One of the reasons why credit card usage has been on the rise is the fact that homeowners are having a harder time using home equity to get a cash infusion into their accounts. As a result, they are looking to borrow money from somewhere, and more times than not, they are turning to credit cards.

The evil with credit cards is that once you start to use them to pay for your basic necessities like food and gas, you find that in the months to come you still can't afford your basic needs but in addition, your monthly bills are racking up like crazy due to your credit card expenses. It's a scary cycle that many families find themselves trapped in.

Many people are saying that the rise in oil prices is the result of loose monetary policy. They say that there is an easy solution to the problem. Raise interest rates substantially, and the problem will be solved. Since the rise in oil is also the primary cause of rising inflation, the inflation problem will be resolved as well.

There are several problems with this line of reasoning. Oil continued to rise as the Fed began to increase interest rates in 2004. Prices doubled as the Fed substantially tightened monetary policy. Europe also has the some of the same inflation issues that we face despite the refusal of the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower rates.

Then, there are the big questions. Why are oil prices rising? What is the short-term solution?

I believe that the main reason for the rise in oil prices is the rise of the developing world. The two nine hundred pound gorillas in this equation are India and China. Automobile demand is increasing in these countries and is likely to continue in the near future.

This is similar to the rise in oil prices in the late 1960's and early 1970's. After World War II, the United States was the primary industrial power. As the world industrialized, demand for oil increased. The United States was not the only nation driving cars extensively. Supply constraints were also introduced in the mid to late 1970's with the Arab oil embargo and the Iranian revolution.

Reuters reports that Citigroup (NYSE: C) is poised to announce today the sale of $400 billion worth of assets -- that's 18% of the total. We'll need to wait to find out which assets it plans to sell and how much of a loss (or profit) Citi will take when it sells them. But the New York Times reports the company's deciding based on industry growth trends, market positions, geographic growth rates, business plans and financial results.

I worked for a global bank during a credit contraction and part of my job was to figure out which assets to sell. From that experience, I know that Citi's challenge is to find assets that don't fit with Citi but are worth more to another owner. That's because often the assets that make the most sense to sell strategically are the ones that nobody else wants to own. And the ones that make the most sense to keep are the ones that could generate the biggest profit, if sold. Citi's challenge is to sell the $400 billion worth of assets that make strategic sense to sell and will fetch an attractive price. In today's market, that is a challenge.

So what Citi assets could be on the block? Reuters notes that Citi's U.S. student loan business may make sense to sell, after recent legislative changes and turmoil in the securitization market have made it less profitable. Citi may sell Primerica, a consumer sales network for life insurance and investments. And Citi should sell assets on its trading books, which have contributed to much of the $45 billion write-downs that Citi has taken so far.

An OPEC official said Friday the cartel may meet to boost output ahead of its September 2008 meeting if crude oil prices keep rising, Reuters reported Friday.

"If the price keeps going up, OPEC may consult on an increase in production before it meets in September," the OPEC source told Reuters Friday, speaking on condition that he not be identified. He added that the increase "would have to be more than 500,000 barrels per day" to have an impact.

Oil Friday hit another record high, increasing $2.20 to $126.20 per barrel Friday morning, before easing back to $125.25, on concern about production in Nigeria amid civil unrest, and on emerging market oil demand growth, particularly in China and India. Further, institutional investor demand for oil as an asset class is also contributing to oil's record rise, many analysts agree.

'Two years, $75 late'

Economist Glen Langan told BloggingStocks Friday talk of a potential OPEC action on production is two years too late. "OPEC is two years, $75 late, I'm sorry to say," Langan said. "OPEC knew for two years that higher production was needed to help meet unprecedented emerging market demand, but they failed to act in the interests of the global economy."

When one travels in economists' circles, one tends to tap into the issues, controversies and policy ideas 'dismal science' practitioners are debating.

And one issue economists have rattled around concerns the speed of fiscal policy stimulus, or more accurately, the lack thereof. In the digital age, the internet has propelled a host of speed-enhancing changes, and it occurred to this group of economists that U.S. Government policy is decidedly behind the curve in this area.

Here's why: economist David H. Wang noted that the U.S., in an attempt to jump-start its economy stalled by the nation's worst housing slump in more than 15 years, has implemented a host of monetary policy changes to provide monetary stimulus quicker. The U.S. Federal Reserve cut key, short-term interests multiple times during a 10-week span (and later implemented additional rate cuts), and devised two, new, Fed-administered institutions to address the credit crisis, provide liquidity, and ensure the orderly operation of financial markets.

George Soros, the billionaire money manager, claims to be old and wise, and able to guess the market's turns better than most. Given the compensation he has collected on Wall Street over his lifetime, it is hard to quarrel with that.

Soros, who still manages several hedge funds, says that the U.S. is in a "bear market rally," according to The Wall Street Journal. Like many pundits, he stakes his claim primarily on the American housing market. If home prices keep up their sharp decline, how, he reasons, can the rest of the economy do well?

He may have a point. Much of what economists have said recently is based on a recession being avoided because consumer spending has slowed but not halted. People are still going to Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Thank goodness for that.

But Soros and his intellectual allies look at a housing market that will continue to decline into 2009 and say that this must force a deeper and deeper downturn.

No one wants to believe Soros. The thought is too grim. But the logic is hard to dispute.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and the author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England Thursday each kept their key, short-term interest rates the same, at 4% and 5%, respectively, the banks announced. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected both the ECB and BOE to maintain current interest rate levels.

In its previous meeting, the ECB had kept its benchmark interest the same at 4%; meanwhile, the BOE lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 5% from 5.25% on 10 April 2008.

In contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered its key, short-term interest rate five times, or by 325 basis points, to 2% from 5.25%, as it attempts to jump-start a U.S. economy dragged to near-stall levels by its worst housing slump in a generation.

Further, for at least the time being, the ECB and BOE do not appear to be concerned about the euro's and the pound's steady, two-year rise versus the dollar. The euro traded at $1.5383 and the pound at $1.9583 in Thursday morning trading; each is about 4% off its 2008 highs.

Reuters reports that Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) posted better-than-expected revenue growth in the first quarter. As I suggested last month, this makes sense to me because Wal-Mart is the beneficiary of the recession diet.

The details suggest that Wal-Mart is becoming more popular than analysts expected thanks to its low prices and the squeezed consumer. Specifically, Wal-Mart sales rose 3.2% rise in April boosted by demand for basic items like groceries and medicine. Analysts, on average, were expecting same-store sales to rise 2.1%, according to Reuters Estimates; Wal-Mart had forecast a gain of 1% to 3%.

Why is this happening? People need food, shelter, medicine, and gasoline to drive back and forth from their jobs. And the price of all those items is rising. I estimate that the median family takes in $838 a week after tax. If that family fills up two tanks of gas a week -- that amounts to 40 gallons times $3.62 a gallon or $145 a week. That's 17% of the weekly budget compared to 15% a year ago when gasoline was $3.10 a gallon. Food prices have skyrocketed as well with rice prices tripling this year.

Bloomberg News reports that consumer borrowing -- as measured by credit card receivables -- grew much faster than expected in March. Specifically, the 9% growth to $2.56 trillion was twice the rate of increase that economists had expected (the actual increase was $15.3 billion vs. 34 economists who expected $6 billion). The March figures brought U.S. consumer borrowing in the first quarter to $34 billion, the most since the first three months of 2001, when the economy entered its last official recession.

And as consumers are increasing their indebtedness, they are also having more trouble paying it back. Overdue payments at the six largest U.S. credit-card lenders reached the highest level since November 2004, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It found an average of 4.11% of loans were at least 30 days late in February and March.

Bloomberg quotes Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York who says it all: "incomes are not keeping up with inflation and this is leading them to rely increasingly on credit to see them through the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression. The days of extracting cash from one's home to spend on goods and services are long gone."

With consumer spending accounting for 70% of GDP growth, that's why I suggested selling into the sucker's rally that peaked last week.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Initial jobless claims decreased 18,000 to 365,000 for the week ended May 3, below the consensus estimate, the U.S. Labor Department announced Thursday. Claims for the previous week were revised up 3,000 to 383,000.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected this week's initial jobless claims to total 370,000.

Also, the 4-week moving average increased 2,500 to 367,000. Economists view the 4-week average as a better indicator of unemployment conditions, as it smooths-out anomalies for strikes, holidays, or other idiosyncratic events.

Economist Peter Dawson said this week's job report "shows that soft labor conditions are an enduring feature of the sluggish U.S. economy. Hiring in both small and large companies has to turn up before we can say this economy is gaining some traction."

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 26 were in: Massachusetts, +5,591, New York, +4,648, Kentucky, +3,776, New Jersey, +3,521, and Michigan, +3,238. The largest decreases were in: Texas, -3,373, Rhode Island, -1,835, California, -1,689, Pennsylvania, -1,597, and, Connecticut, -1,423.

Meanwhile, the number of continuing claims decreased by 10,000 to 3.020 million from a revised 3.030 million for the week ended April 26, the latest period for which figures were available.

Economic Analysis: Another poor weekly jobless report. Weekly claims were above the consensus estimate, and the 4-week moving average remains at an elevated level. Further, the continuing claims total remains over 3 million -- an indication of a soft job market. That statistic, combined with a elevated 4-week average, indicates that labor market conditions are not improving -- a decided negative for the U.S. economy.

The ever-incisive FT columnist Martin Wolf offers prudent and timely advice concerning the reforms needed to ease credit market doldrums and right the global financial state of things.

One key practice Wolf would like to see addressed is bank / mortgage lender selling of mortgages they originate.

Designers of the practice had good intentions: It was designed to free-up capital so banks / mortgage lenders could have more money available for future homebuyers. A noble intention.

Unfortunately, as tradition reminds us, the road to perdition (and record housing sector slumps) is paved with good intentions. The problem, Wolf notes, is that the originate-and-distribute model encouraged banks / mortgage lenders to originate (in many cases for handsome fees) high-risk, very-poor-credit-quality mortgages with reckless abandon, because originators knew that the loan would be sold, and its status as a performing asset would be entirely someone else's problem. Save the best (mortgages), get rid of the rest.

It's not surprising, Wolf notes, that the originate-and-distribute model became laden with sloppy, irresponsible and even fraudulent loans. Wolf's reform: originators must be required to retain a portion of the equity of securitized loans. Hence, if / when they go bad, the originator loses money too.

Economic Analysis: Wolf's proposed financial / bond market reform is on the mark. If every party, including the originator, has a stake in a mortgage's repayment status, that will lead to higher-quality loans, while at the same time retaining the secondary market's benefit of freeing-up capital for new mortgages.

If you are like me, you are probably getting pretty tired of reading bad housing news day after day, so today it is nice to bring you some good news on the housing market, as mortgage applications rose last week for the first time in three weeks.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the week ended May 2 saw a 15.6% jump in the association's index of mortgage applications. The index takes into account both new purchase as well as refinance loans.

It is a good sign for the housing market, which is entering into its peak buying season. Perhaps this is the moment we have been waiting for, when buyers are finally ready to come back into the market and sweep up some heavily discounted houses. Home prices have been steadily falling for the past year, but signs are starting to point to a possible stabilizing early in 2009.

Chrissy Hynde of the Pretenders once sang about going home and finding that her hometown (Akron, Ohio, I think) was no more. "I went back to Ohio but my city was gone." Developers had destroyed the downtown and paved over the fields and all that was left was parking lots and shopping malls.

The people of Vallejo, California may be singing a similar song today, as the town's city council voted to declare bankruptcy. Vallejo is facing a budget crisis driven by the collapse of the housing bubble in California. And while the town is still there, its finances have been ravaged by falling property values (and thus taxes) and reduced economic activity (ditto). Once again, developers went too far, and now the hangover is setting in.

Critics point out that the housing bubble is only part of the problem. The fat tax flow during the housing boom masked deeper problems of high pay and benefits for municipal workers and unfunded but growing pension liabilities. Vallejo is now facing a $16 million shortfall and has no money in the bank.

The bigger question is whether this will encourage other towns to take the same path. Lots of cities in the U.S. are hurting from lower property values and tax payments these days, and bankruptcy may become a more attractive option as the recession -- oops, sorry, I meant "rough patch" -- gets worse.

Sales of existing homes in fell 1.0% in March 2008, the National Association of Realtors announced Wednesday, as the prospect of continued home price declines discouraged potential buyers.

The NAR's existing home sales index declined to 83.0 in March 2008. The index totaled a revised 83.8 in February 2008, and stood at 103.9 in March 2007.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had expected the March 2008 existing home sales index to drop to 83.8%.

Regional conditions vary

Conditions varied by region. In the Midwest, the index fell 10.4% in March 2008 to 74.1; in the West, the index fell 1.4% to 91.2, and in the South, it fell 0.1% to 84.9. In the Northeast, the index rose 12.5% to 80.8%.

Bloomberg News reports that someone at the Fed has finally developed a bit of common sense --that is if you believe that the Fed's job is to fight inflationary expectations. Amazingly enough, the president of one of the Fed banks failed to repeat the standard mantra that "core inflation" is under control.

Instead, according to Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Thomas Hoenig said "serious" inflation pressures may compel the Fed to raise interest rates. He said that the current account deficit is a problem thanks to the weak dollar. And he argued that the combination of slowing growth and inflation is "troublesome." He observed that rising global commodity prices and higher prices of imported goods from China and other markets are pushing up prices.

And here's the kicker. Hoenig said, "Some would dismiss these rising inflationary pressures as temporary. I believe they are more serious." Hoenig thinks that the economic slowdown will be short-lived and that the Fed will need to raise rates quickly. He noted, "As the economy recovers and credit conditions improve, however, it will be necessary for the Federal Reserve to remove the policy accommodation in a timely manner."