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MGIC (MTG): Mortgage Turnaround?

MGIC (MTG) logo"MGIC (MTG) is the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer; in fact, the company claims to have founded the mortgage insurance industry in 1957," notes turnaround specialist George Putnam.

The editor of The Turnaround Letter explains, "After many years of relatively steady earnings, MGIC was forced to sharply increase its reserves beginning in 2007 as more homeowners began defaulting on their mortgages.

"As a result, the company posted large losses in each of the last three years, which reduced its capital to a precarious level. Almost all of the other mortgage insurers suffered similar fates, with several competitors being forced out of business.

Continue reading MGIC (MTG): Mortgage Turnaround?

Jobs Report Disappoints Despite Lower Unemployment Rate

Labor Department sealThe Labor Department reported that employers added 103,000 jobs last month. This fell short of the expected 150,000 predicted by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. However, the unemployment rate fell to 9.4%. The November report was revised upward to 71,000 from 39,000, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Earlier in the week ADP reported that private sector jobs rose by 297,000 last month, the strongest gain since ADP began collecting data.

Continue reading Jobs Report Disappoints Despite Lower Unemployment Rate

Fed Members Differ on Economic Outlook

The Federal Reserve has embarked on a controversial new program of buying $600 billion of U.S. Treasuries to keep interest rates low and spur the economy.

There is some disagreement among some members of the Fed concerning the risks of this new program. Some fear that the economy is growing too rapidly, fueling unwanted levels of inflation, as reported by CNNMoney.

Continue reading Fed Members Differ on Economic Outlook

Dollar General Plans to Open 625 New Stores, Hire 6,000 Employees

The country is still mired in a long recession. Many businesses are closing their doors. Others are cutting back, laying off employees and reducing production. But with every crisis there is opportunity. Such is the case for Dollar General (DG). In a time of high unemployment and low wages, consumers are counting every penny. Dollar General stores offer deep discounts, even beating discounters like Walmart (WMT).

In the most recent quarter, Dollar General's income rose by 69%. The company also raised its full-year guidance by 10% to $3.22 billion.

Continue reading Dollar General Plans to Open 625 New Stores, Hire 6,000 Employees

Monster Worldwide (MWW): Looking Ahead to Job Gains

Monster Worldwide logo"The latest employment report was a downer, with the U.S. unemployment rate ticking up to 9.8%. And the job market remains sluggish in many areas overseas as well," notes Mike Cintolo, who asks, "So why is an online employment and recruitment stock like Monster Worldwide (MWW) doing so well?"

The editor of Cabot Top Ten Weekly explains, "The reason is that the market looks ahead and is discounting a pickup in job growth in the months ahead ... and, more importantly, the ability of Monster to take advantage of it.

Continue reading Monster Worldwide (MWW): Looking Ahead to Job Gains

Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

In my new book, The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for an Era of Slow Growth and Deflation, I discuss nine reasons for slow U.S. economic growth and real GDP gains of about 2% annually in the long run.

1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.

Continue reading Nine Reasons for Slow U.S. Economic Growth

More People Are Quitting Their Jobs

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has an indicator that tracks the number of people who simply quit their jobs. CNBC.com reported that the indicator, which they dubbed "Take This Job and Shove It," climbed in October with 2 million people quitting their jobs, up from 1.7 million in the same month a year ago. The last time this pattern occurred was in 2003 when the economy started a long upward trend.

The "Shove It" indicator tends to turn up when people are confident enough that they will find another job if they quit their present one.

Continue reading More People Are Quitting Their Jobs

Why Not Try Free HDTV?

The recession is taking its toll on TV cable providers. High unemployment and low wages are the main causes for the drop off in viewer numbers. Craig Moffett, analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein estimates that cable and satellite companies lost about 330,000 customers in the third quarter, as reported in the New York Times.

Customers are cutting cable service and returning to the old 'rabbit ears." Antennas Direct, maker of the new style rabbit ears expects to sell 500,000 this year, up from 385,000 in 2009.The cost is is between $25 and $150.

Continue reading Why Not Try Free HDTV?

Dollar General's Net Earnings Soar, Shares Fall

Dollar General (DG) logoRecessions are a good time for discount retailers. Dollar General (DG) is a retailer of low priced goods, which are in demand during this period of high unemployment. Consumers have less to spend and gravitate to stores like Dollar General.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) reported that Dollar General's fiscal third-quarter profit rose to $128.1 million or 37 cents a share, up from $75 million or 24 cents a share a year earlier. Sales rose 10% to $3.22 billion and were 4.2% higher on a same-store basis. Compared to prior years, sales were up 13% and 9.2% respectively.

Continue reading Dollar General's Net Earnings Soar, Shares Fall

Bernanke on 60 Minutes: We Could Have QE3

Ben BernankeFederal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will appear on 60 Minutes this Sunday to defend his controversial stimulus package, dubbed QE2, of buying $600 billion of Treasury securities.

In the CBS interview, Bernanke explains his intentions with QE2 and defends the notion that this stimulus will not lead to inflation. He also told CBS that he is not ruling out the purchase of more securities.

Continue reading Bernanke on 60 Minutes: We Could Have QE3

Chasing Value: Time to Redial Telefonica

The economic news out of Europe has strengthened the dollar and recast doubt on the euro. The demise of the Irish "domino" after the bailout of the Greek domino has formed clouds over the Portuguese and Spanish dominoes.

As fear grows, the European Bank is trying to build a buttress to hold up the dominoes. However, from the perspective of the Greek and Irish people the prescribed austerity measures employed is just foreign oppression and will not help their employment levels.

What this means to most investors is to run for the hills. What it means to this investor is watch closely for buying opportunities because bargains will be created by the fear -- for sure!

Continue reading Chasing Value: Time to Redial Telefonica

Consumers Are More Upbeat, but Still Wary About Big Purchases

According to the Wall Street Journal, the Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose in November to 54.1, from 49.9 in October. Those people expecting conditions to get better rose to 16.7% from 15.8%. Those expecting conditions to worsen fell to 12.1% from 14.4%. The same ratios were found for job expectations.

On the other hand, the Case-Shiller composite index of home prices fell 1.5% in the third quarter from a year ago. The index showed an even further drop of 2% in the third quarter when compared to the previous quarter.

Continue reading Consumers Are More Upbeat, but Still Wary About Big Purchases

Case-Shiller Index Data Shows Home Prices Are Falling

home pricesAccording to Standard & Poor's (S&P) Case-Shiller home price index, home prices are falling faster in the nation's largest cities.

The index dropped 0.6% in September compared to August (some are reporting 0.7%), with 18 of the cities recording monthly price declines. The largest drop was reported in Cleveland, Ohio, which saw prices drop 3% compared to a month earlier. The only two cities where prices increased were Washington DC (thanks mainly to government spending) and Las Vegas (which has been battered in recent reports).

Continue reading Case-Shiller Index Data Shows Home Prices Are Falling

Retailers to Push Luxury Items This Holiday Season

holiday shoppingIt seems that retailers are ready to give up on pushing the practical gifts this holiday season in hopes that weary retailers are ready to unload some cash on higher-priced items. Retailers are hoping that socks and pajamas aren't on the list but large-screen LCD TVs and other fancier gifts find their way under the tree. The hope is that shoppers will buy into mainstream optimism.

A year ago, discretionary spending (items like clothing and home furnishings) dropped to 61% of total dollars spent, hopes are that this spending will increase to 63% this year (according to estimates from Customer Growth Partners). Such an increase would equal the percentage from 2008. While two percentage points may seem small, it represents an increase of roughly $60 billion.

Continue reading Retailers to Push Luxury Items This Holiday Season

Corporate Profits Set a Record in the Third Quarter

money bagsOur economy has all the earmarks of schizophrenia. We have unemployment at 9.6% with little chance of a turnaround any time soon. But at the same time, corporate profits set a record in the third quarter at $1.659 trillion, on a non-inflation adjusted basis, according to the Commerce Department, as reported in the New York Times.

Corporate profits reached a cyclical low in the fourth quarter of 2008. Since then they have grown for seven consecutive quarters. As a share of GDP, corporate profits account for 11.2% of total output.

How did corporations manage to do so well? One reason is productivity growth -- being able to do more with less. Another reason is that multi-nationals are benefiting from expanded sales from emerging markets like China and India.

Continue reading Corporate Profits Set a Record in the Third Quarter

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DJIA+33.6012,529.75
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Last updated: May 25, 2012: 03:47 AM

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