It was reported on Sunday, June 21, that Anglo-Swiss mining company Xstrata has proposed a merger of equals to the board of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK), hoping to create a new, more competitive mining giant. Rumors have been milling about for a while.

Together, Anglo American and Xstrata would have a market capitalization of approximately $68 billion, (AAUK's $35 billion + XTA.L's $33 billion) and be larger than Rio Tinto plc ADS (NYSE: RTP), which ended the trading day last Friday with a capitalization hovering over $42 billion.

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP - option chain) stock is declining this morning on reports that Chinese authorities could use a new antitrust law to block the company's planned joint venture with BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP). If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on RTP.

This morning, RTP opened at $193.00. So far today the stock has hit a low of $188.52 and a high of $194.00. As of 11:45, RTP is trading at $190.15, down $14.29 (-7.0%). The chart for RTP looks neutral and S&P gives RTP a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

It was certainly a big-time bet: Chinalco agreed to invest a whopping $19.5 billion in Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP), which is the #3 ore miner. However, over the past couple months, there was some doubt as to whether this transaction would come to fruition.

Well, this week, we got an answer. That is, Rio decided to dump Chinalco and instead form a joint venture (JV) with BHP Billiton (NYSE: BHP), which is the #2 player in the global ore industry (keep in mind that both firms had a buyout deal that blew up last year).

Now, the JV has lots of merit. For example, there will be huge cost synergies, which could amount to more than $10 billion.

Nucor (NYSE: NUE - option chain) shares are rising today after iron-ore miner Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) agreed to cut its iron ore prices for Japan's Nippon Steel Corp by more than 30%. The steelmakers have already been driven lower as demand for their product has slowed, but now they are less likely to be charged boom-time prices for their raw materials on top of that. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on NUE.

NUE opened this morning at $39.44. So far today the stock has hit a low of $39.14 and a high of $41.41. As of 11:35, NUE is trading at $41.25 up 1.16 (2.9%). The chart for NUE looks bearish and S&P gives NUE a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded Aruba Networks (NASDAQ: ARUN) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q3 results to reflect improved visibility. The firm raised its target price to $6.50 from $3.
• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) and Potash (NYSE: POT) to Buy from Hold and Agrium (NYSE: AGU) to Hold from Sell as it believes stronger grain fundamentals more than offset China contract risk. The firm raised its target on Mosaic to $72 from $48, on Potash to $145 from $83 and on Agrium to $55 from $36.
• Fulton Financial (NASDAQ: FULT) Was upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Neutral from Sell at Goldman.
• Noble Corp. (NYSE: NE) was upgraded at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

Analyst upgrades:

• Morgan Stanley said Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) capital needs are largely known and shares are trading "cheaply despite reduced downside risk." The firm upgraded shares to Overweight from Underweight and raised the price target to $25 from $16. Shares were also upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird citing manageable capital needs and attractive risk/reward.
  
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation as it views the stock as inexpensive despite the recent rally. The firm has an $8 target on the stock.
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Buy from Neutral as it believes fewer hedging losses could bring upside over the next few quarters.
• Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at Barclays.
  
• EnerNOC (NASDAQ: ENOC) was lifted to Buy from Neutral at Janney Montgomery.
  
• Westpac Banking (NYSE: WBK) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.

Teck Cominco (NYSE: TCK) closed at $14.04. TCK, a metals producer, announced on May 5 it issued $4.255 billion in long term bonds. TCK June and August option implied volatility of 84 is below its 26-week average of 111, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) closed at $183.66. RTP, the world's third-largest mining company, was upgraded to Overweight from Equalweight at Barclays Capital. RTP June option implied volatility of 70 is below its 26-week average of 85, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst upgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette upgraded MF Global (NYSE: MF) to Outperform from Market Perform as it believes the company's liquidity position has improved and that it is well positioned to take market share. The firm raised its target on shares to $9.
  
• UBS upgraded Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $33 from $28 citing better than expected performance in Macau, valuation, and comfort with the balance sheet.
  
• Citigroup upgraded Brandywine Realty (NYSE: BDN) to Buy from Hold on valuation and believes progress on asset sales or financing could drive significant upside. The firm keeps a $4.50 price target on BDN.
• Joy Global (NASDAQ: JOYG) was raised to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan.
  
• Novo Nordisk (NYSE: NVO) was lifted to Hold from Sell at Societe Generale.
  
• Cimarex Energy (NYSE: XEC) was upgraded at Banc of America/Merrill to Buy from Underperform.

Analyst upgrades:

• JMP Securities upgraded CB Richard Ellis (NYSE: CBG) to Outperform from Market Perform. The analyst believes the new Public-Private Investment Program will create liquidity, which will result in some degree of activity. Shares were also upgraded at JP Morgan to Overweight from Neutral.
  
• Thomas Weisel upgraded Linear Tech (NASDAQ: LLTC) to Overweight from Market Weight due to stabilizing business and favorable end market exposure.
  
• UBS upgraded PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $60 from $57 due to moderating input costs, earnings and investment flexibility, improving U.S. beverage business, and leverage from its market share in food.
• Tibco (NASDAQ: TIBX) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
  
• Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) was upgraded at ING Group to Buy from Hold.
  
• Hospira (NYSE: HSP) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink.

Aluminum giant Alcoa (NYSE:AA) announced on Feb. 12 that it was selling its holdings of iron ore company Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP)to Chinalco for about $1 billion, nearly $700 million more than the current value of the holdings. And speculation has begun to surface that Chinalco will make a play for Alcoa, one of the world's largest producers of aluminum.

Stocks are set for a mixed start as investors keep watching -- and waiting for more details -- the different government plans to bailout the financial market, stimulate the economy and aid homeowners. More here: Before the bell: Stocks set for a mixed start as investors watch government's plans

PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP) -- Can the Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) rival follow in its competitor's footsteps as it reports earnings today and post results the market is happy with?
Pepsico reported that fourth-quarter profit fell partly on restructuring and impairment charges, but adjusted results were $1.39 billion, or 88 cents per share, inline with analysts' expectations. PEP shares traded nearly 1% higher in premarket trade, despite saying it forecasts pressure from a stronger dollar. PEP shares were some 2.5% higher by 11 am.

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) will freeze wages, cut pay for factory executives, eliminate bonuses for all salaried employees and offer voluntary redundancy to plant workers in North America for the first time as it widens output cuts to adjust for slumping vehicle demand. TM shares traded lower in premarket action. TM shares declined some about 1.9% by 11 am.

U.S. stocks were set for a lower open Thursday morning as futures declined ahead of the release of January retail sales and weekly employment statistics. Read more: Before the bell: Stocks set for lower open ahead of retail sales numbers

Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) will get a much needed $19.5 billion investment from Aluminum Corp. of China, or Chinalco, one of the world's biggest aluminum producers. This would help debt-laden RTP pay some of its debts. As part of the deal, Chinalco agreed to invest $12.3 billion in joint ventures in aluminum, copper and iron ore mining.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA) also sold its stake in Rio Tinto to Chinalco for $1 billion, well above its $300 million current value. Mind you, RTP shares declined 67% since the acquisition was made.

Big China metals and mining firm Chinalco is putting over $19 billion into Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) which is in many of the same businesses. According to MarketWatch, "The investment by the state-owned company, known as Chinalco, would be the largest-ever foreign corporate investment by a Chinese company."

About $1 billion of the cash will be used to buy Rio Tinto shares held by Alcoa (NYSE: AA). Does the China deal put Alcoa in play? It may.

Before the bell: Stocks to rebound, but investors remain cautious

ArcelorMittal (NYSE: MT) swung to a surprising $2.6 billion loss in the fourth quarter -- its first ever -- as it experienced a collapse in demand and a sharp drop in prices. It wrote down $4.4 billion in pre-tax charges. The steel giant is also shedding some 9,000 workers. MT shares jumped over 6% in premarket trade.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) warned late Tuesday that chipmakers will spend 50% less this year for its products. The maker of semiconductor production equipment also posted a fiscal first-quarter loss of $3 million, excluding charges, and said it will cut 14% of its workforce, or about 2,000 jobs, as well as production. AMAT shares declined some 2% in premarket trade.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the importance of this nation cannot be overstated.

How long before we start feeling the positive effect of a market that is up 13% and is the biggest user of commodities? How long do we think oil can stay down (or copper or steel) when the stock market of China, the growth engine, is no longer sputtering and has ample room to run?

As people sell down BP (NYSE: BP) (Cramer's Take) and Conoco (NYSE: COP) (Cramer's Take), they simply must believe that the Chinese stimulus plan is already a failure. Anyone on the Mattel (NYSE: MAT) (Cramer's Take) conference call -- talk about a company with Chinese insight -- certainly thinks so. The description of China from reports like Mattel is one of Cormac McCarthy's The Road-like devastation.