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Broadcasting profits in Russia with CTC Media (CTCM)

"Many of the industries that we think of as 'mature' in the U.S. are still in their infancy in Russia," notes global expert John Christy.

In his Forbes International Investment Report, he notes, "Advertising is a perfect example. Overall, the Russian ad market is growing at a 25%-30% clip." Here, he looks at CTC Media (NASDAQ: CTCM), one of the leading TV broadcasters in Russia.

"In 2007, total advertising spending in Russia was approximately $9 billion versus just $1.1 billion back in 2000. To put things in perspective, consider that in the U.K., Europe's largest ad market, spending is roughly $22 billion.

"With more than twice the population of the U.K., Russia's advertising market is less than half its size. Of course, it will take a very long time for Russia's economy to become as developed as Britain's but there is clearly a lot of room for growth.

"Television companies will be a prime beneficiary of this trend. TV accounts for about half of all advertising spending in Russia, or about $4.4 billion. And television advertising has been growing at 40% annually, an even faster pace than that of ad spending overall.

"One of the easiest ways for investors to tap into this growth is through CTC Media. The Moscow-based company is Russia's fourth-biggest broadcaster, with an 11.3% audience share.

Continue reading Broadcasting profits in Russia with CTC Media (CTCM)

Will the Saudis run low on oil?

The Saudis will shortly open one of the largest oil fields in the world for production. That would seem to be good news, but it may be the last big deposit of crude left in the country. And, getting it online has cost $15 billion.

According to The Wall Street Journal, "Even in Saudi Arabia, home to more than a quarter of the world's known recoverable reserves, the age of cheap and easily pumped oil is over."

In a period where oil now sells for $117 a barrel, the largest single question is whether global oil production has peaked. There are very few new, large fields being found now. Recently, Brazil said it has discovered one off its coast, but that is in very deep water. Getting to the crude will be expensive, and some of it may be beyond reaching at all.

Part of the rise in oil prices probably has nothing to do with current supply, but it may well anticipate a fall-off in crude production in years to come. Developing nations like China and India are still increasing their consumption. Without large new deposits to develop, there is every reason to expect that oil reserves may start to fall a decade from now.

There is nothing to replace that.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Oil at $150, Saudi and oil demand news

Large emerging market countries will use more crude oil than the US for the first time ever. According to Bloomberg, "China, India, Russia and the Middle East for the first time will consume more crude oil than the U.S., burning 20.67 million barrels a day this year."

While OPEC says that higher oil prices are the result of a weak dollar and speculation, that viewpoint is clearly wrong. Demand for oil is moving up and moving up quickly. At the same time there is evidence that supply may drop. Saudi Arabia has indicated that it will soon stop investing in more oil production facilities. The Wall Street Journal says that "After 2009, the kingdom is putting a brake on new projects, because it fears rising output and consumption of biofuels and other non-fossil fuels will erode crude-oil demand."

Anyone who believes the Saudi excuse for cutting investment is a oil production is a fool. By dropping capital expenditures on new facilities, the country can increase the tens of billions of dollars in profits it makes on $116 oil.

The war between consuming nations and producing nations is entering a new and more dangerous phase. Oil needs to rise 30% to hit $150. Based on the price increase over the last year, that number is not beyond the realm of possibility. Nor is the idea that gas prices could top $5 a gallon.

Oil. More consumption and less supply. Ugly results.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Once again, OPEC says no new oil

On an almost weekly basis, OPEC makes its case that increasing oil production will not bring down the price of crude. And, almost every week oil consuming countries see the statements as self-serving. While the members of the cartel bring in tens of billions of dollars with oil hitting $116, there is absolutely no economic incentive for them to pump on additional drop of the black gold.

Bloomberg reports that OPEC's chief says, "Any increase in production now will not have an impact on prices because there is a balance between supply and demand." The statement is laughable on the face of it. While speculation in price and a falling dollar have contributed to some of the rise in crude, so has demand from countries like China and India. Demand has also not fallen in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, which have traditionally been the largest markets of oil.

Unfortunately, consuming nations have very little leverage with OPEC. The U.S. does offer military security to many Arab states in the Middle East, but it does not seem to be willing to use that as a bargaining chip.

Too bad.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Gasoline prices hit new record high

Gasoline prices have continued their charge up to $4 a gallon today, rising to a new record high of $3.418 after jumping 1.9 cents last night.

Gas prices have been rising sharply over the past few months in reaction to record high oil prices and a weak dollar, and some analysts are already predicting that we will be seeing $4 a gallon before it is all said and done. Diesel prices also rose to a new high, hitting $4.146 per gallon.

As we noted in earlier discussions, gas prices are only expected to move higher in the next few months as more drivers hit the road for their summer vacations. The heavy demand summer driving months always apply upward pressure to prices, and despite the current high prices, summer demand will definitely push prices even higher.

Continue reading Gasoline prices hit new record high

Oil sets new record as it breaks through $114

As Joseph Lazzaro wrote earlier today, oil prices were surging once again in today's market, and traders set a new record, pushing prices up as high as $114.08 today.

Fueling today's rally were concerns over global supply, as news spread that Russian oil production has fallen this year. This is the first time in a decade that Russia is seeing a decline in its production.

Russia is not the only country making headlines. We were also given the news that China had a massive jump in its diesel oil imports last month of a remarkable 49%. So, we are being given both the news that Russia is producing less, while China is demanding more; the perfect recipe for a strong day for oil prices. Other oil producers, Mexico and Nigeria, announced that they had temporarily shut down some of their production as well.

Continue reading Oil sets new record as it breaks through $114

In surprise, Russia's oil production drops for first time in 10 years

In a report that surprised many sector watchers, Russian oil production fell for the first time in a decade, based on year-over-year basis The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday (Subscription required).

Russia, the world's second biggest exporter of oil after Saudi Arabia, averaged production of 10 million barrels per day during the first three months of this year -- a 1% drop in production when compared to the same period in 2007, The Associated Press reported Tuesday, citing International Energy Agency data.

Aging infrastructure or aging fields?

Analysts, oil industry executive, and economists will now begin the painstaking process of determining the exact cause of the production shortage. Russia has suffered from electricity shortages and poor weather conditions in oil production zones during the past year. In addition, despite Russia's impressive, 5-year economic boom and related development -- an economic expansion driven to a considerable degree by Russia's oil revenue -- the nation's oil infrastructure remains inadequate and in need of up to $50 billion in improvements and upgrades.

Independent energy trader Jim Dietz said if the current production drop stems from weather problems or infrastructure deficiencies, the oil market will largely overlook the decline, as a temporary dip.

Continue reading In surprise, Russia's oil production drops for first time in 10 years

Wal-Mart (WMT) looks to Russia

Now that it is clear that Wal-Mart's (NYSE:WMT) international operations are growing much faster than its US division, the company is searching for new frontiers. Revenue overseas is growing at a rate better than 20%

Wal-Mart has had trouble in some countries. Its operation in Japan continues to loss money and it has pulled out of Korea and Germany.

Now, the world's largest retailer is looking to Russia and eastern Europe for more growth. According to the FT, Wal-Mart "firmly signaled its intention to expand into Russia and eastern Europe, announcing that it had recruited Stephan Fanderl, a German retail executive, to explore opportunities in the region."

It will be at least a couple of years before the market can gauge whether Wal-Mart can have success in the region. It has to compete with other companies like big European retail chain Tesco. The Wal-Mart model clearly does not work in all cultures.

A break-down of Wal-Mat's track record overseas is telling. It problems in Germany, Japan, and Korea have been more than off-set by successes in China and Mexico. To some extent that may mean that countries with lower median incomes are better markets for the company. Russia and Eastern Europe are a mixed bag. Parts of Russia have done very well financially. Eastern Europe is still in a stage of economic development.

Wal-Mart may be expanding outside the US, but its success is hardly assured.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Huge Brazil oil discovery brings no relief from surging oil prices

The price of crude moved to a record above $112 overnight. It seems that speculation, a weak dollar, and concern about demand just keep pushing oil higher.

Now, oil is part of a "good news/bad news" play. Evidence is coming out of Russia that oil production there has peaked. According to the FT, "Russian oil production has peaked and may never return to current levels." By many measures, Russia is the world's second largest oil producer.

That bad news may be offset by a huge oil discovery off the coast of Brazil. The country's state-owned oil company, Petróleo Brasileiro, said it had made a huge discovery off-shore. According to The Wall Street Journal, "the head of Brazil's National Petroleum Agency, Haroldo Lima, said the strike could be one of the world's biggest oil discoveries in decades, containing as much as 33 billion barrels in oil equivalent."

The question now is whether one huge deposit can offset a decline in Russia and a fall-off in oil from other large producers like Mexico. For now, the answer is "no." That's because the Brazil discovery is in deep water. It could take several years to get it completely online. The decline in production in other countries is happening now.

The Brazil discovery brings hope, but no relief, at least no for now.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

TPG: a big appetite for risk

TPG, which is a top private equity firm, is known for its ingenuity. And, with the credit crunch, this trait is extremely important.

For example, TPG has formed an investor group – that includes some major existing institutional holders -- to invest $7 billion into Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). The deal includes a blend of common and convertible preferred shares. In fact, this transaction is likely to be a template for more deals in the banking industry.

Well, TPG has also structured another interesting deal (which hasn't gotten much notice). That is, the firm has invested roughly $800 million for a 50% ownership stake in SIA International.

The company, which is the largest pharma distributor in Russia, generates revenues of about $2.7 billion and has deals with more than 30,000 pharmacies. If anything, this could be a platform for more acquisitions in the sector. After all, the Russian pharma market is in excess of $12 billion.

For the most part, TPG realizes that – with a lack of debt financing in the global markets – it needs to find investment opportunities that require lots of equity to fuel growth. But, at the same time, it involves a good amount of risk.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates MergerBook.com.

Dell (DELL) may take sovereign fund investment

Usually, when sovereign funds put money into a company it is simply a financial investment. Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) may have unlocked something more. According to The Wall Street Journal: "Dell said it is in talks with a government-owned entity in Dubai about establishing a joint venture to further increase the personal-computer maker's sales in the Middle East." In other words, the computer company will get value well beyond cash.

For Dell, it is a brilliant move that shows government funds can do more than just write checks. The PC market in the Middle East is large and growing very rapidly.

The US company may have found a template for improving its market share around the world through forming joint ventures with local pools of capital. Dell's growth in many markets has been hurt by the improvement of share by Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and the rise of big computer companies Lenovo and Acer out of China. All of these companies need to improve their business in growing markets, like the Middle East and Asia, if they want their earnings to move up.

If the Dell venture in Dubai works, it would be wise to look to sovereign funds in Russia, China, and Singapore for similar deals. Dell's market share in many of these regions is in trouble. Who better than the locals to help them?

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24wallst.com.

Money Map points to growth for U.S. Global (GROW)

"U.S. Global Investors (Nasdaq: GROW) has been growing its revenue and earnings at an accelerated pace
over the last few years, notes Horacio Marquez, adding "And that pace is about to pick up after a recent mild respite."

The contributing editor to The Money Map explains, "We expect very strong gains in this stock to come in short order." Here, he looks at the fund management firm.

"The reason is very simple. If you couple some of the best minds in emerging-market investments and commodity
investments with a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative approach, you get consistently top-performing
funds with eye-popping returns.

"Last year, four of the firm's equity funds, – representing more than 80% of the money under management –
were among the top performers in the overall U.S. mutual fund universe, in the one- and 10-year time
periods.

"And in the fund-management business, strong, consistent fund performance drives growth in assets under management. And since growth in assets under management drives fees, it is no surprise that this company has
been able to achieve operating income growth rates of between 27% to 94% over the last 10 years.

"In fact, the company should see accelerating earnings growth in the second half, as the interest rates cuts favor higher commodity prices and emerging-market investments – areas in which U.S. Global's funds excel.

Continue reading Money Map points to growth for U.S. Global (GROW)

Global expert: 'Great time' to invest in Central Europe & Russia (CEE)

"Central Europe & Russia Fund (NYSE: CEE) is a closed-end fund that invests in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Turkey," says global investment expert Nick Lanyi.

In his industry-leading High Yield International, the advisors explains, "The fund's diversification, high yield and top-notch management team make it the best high-income play on the region today." Plus, he adds, "Now is a particularly great time to invest in these regions." Indeed, he remains strongly bullish on Russia, rgardless of any concerns expressed by political pundits regarding Russia's elections.

"The fund's largest country allocation (about 50% of assets) actually is to Russia, not Eastern Europe. I consider that a plus, because it gives investors exposure to Eastern Europe's strengths, but with the valuable ballast of an accompanying investment in Russia's natural resources sector.

"Prominent Russian natural resource firms Lukoil, Gazprom, and Norilsk Nickel account for about a quarter of the fund's total assets. With the prices of energy and mining commodities in a long-term uptrend, a large natural resources stake could come in handy in a volatile market.

Continue reading Global expert: 'Great time' to invest in Central Europe & Russia (CEE)

'Great time' to buy Central Europe & Russia (CEE)

"Central Europe & Russia Fund (NYSE: CEE) is a closed-end fund that invests in Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Turkey," says global investment expert Nick Lanyi.

In his industry-leading High Yield International, the advisors explains, "The fund's diversification, high yield and top-notch management team make it the best high-income play on the region today." Plus, he adds, "Now is a particularly great time to invest in these regions." Indeed, he remains strongly bullish on Russia, rgardless of any concerns expressed by political pundits regarding Russia's elections.

"The fund's largest country allocation (about 50% of assets) actually is to Russia, not Eastern Europe. I consider that a plus, because it gives investors exposure to Eastern Europe's strengths, but with the valuable ballast of an accompanying investment in Russia's natural resources sector.

"Prominent Russian natural resource firms Lukoil, Gazprom, and Norilsk Nickel account for about a quarter of the fund's total assets. With the prices of energy and mining commodities in a long-term uptrend, a large natural resources stake could come in handy in a volatile market.

Continue reading 'Great time' to buy Central Europe & Russia (CEE)

Russia to invest in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds

In a development likely to be warmly-received by international finance and stock markets, Russia announced Thursday it will buy Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds through its sovereign wealth funds, Russia's Finance Ministry said and Bloomberg News reported.

Russia will invest money from its Reserve Fund and National Wellbeing Fund into 15 government bond funds in Europe and the United States, including those in Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). Russia will also purchase government bonds in the U.K., Germany, France, Austria, Canada, and the Netherlands, Bloomberg News reported.

Both Fannie, down 56 cents $29.27, and Freddie, down 80 cents to $27.94, moved lower Thursday afternoon; however it should be noted that the declines occurred during a broad market sell-off, with the Dow down 159 points to 12,267.

Continue reading Russia to invest in Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac bonds

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-5.8612,986.80
NASDAQ-4.882,528.85
S&P 500+1.781,425.35

Last updated: May 17, 2008: 09:16 AM

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