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BP's Rosneft Deal Is Blocked by Russian Tribunal, Risking Costly Resolution

BP (BP) should have seen this one coming. An arbitration tribunal set up by BP's existing Russian partners blocked the $7.8 billion share swap deal proposed by BP with Russia's state-controlled Rosneft. The tribunal was setup at the behest of the Alfa-Access-Renova consortium, which is BP's partners Russia's third-biggest oil producer TNK-BP. BP is the third largest of the six oil and gas "supermajors" after Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell. Other competitors include Chesapeake (CHK), Anadarko and Chevron (CVX).

Our price estimate for BP stands at $49.38, implying a roughly 5% premium to its current market price.

Continue reading BP's Rosneft Deal Is Blocked by Russian Tribunal, Risking Costly Resolution

With BP's Problems, Who Enters the Void?

BP's (BP) headache continues over its planned share swap with Russian-owned Rosneft. According to a report from Sky News, the Association of British Insurers (ABI) announced its concerns over the impact of the swap. ABI reportedly controls 10% to 15% of the U.K. stock market.

ABI's reservations also include a Swedish court's decision to block BP's planned venture with Rosneft in the Arctic. Perhaps most concerning of all -- and not just to ABI -- is Wednesday's report announcing that U.S. prosecutors are considering manslaughter charges against BP for its Gulf of Mexico oil spill. Eleven oil workers were killed as a result of the spill.

Continue reading With BP's Problems, Who Enters the Void?

Should Freeport Pursue Lundin Mining?

Freeport McMoran Copper (FCX) is a miner of copper, gold and molybdenum. It has operations in North and South America, Indonesia and Africa, and competes with other miners such as the Southern Copper (SCCO), Codelco and Newmont Mining (NEM).

Continue reading Should Freeport Pursue Lundin Mining?

Palladium: Best Performer of 2010, Hits Nine-Year High

Looking back can be painful, especially if you missed the biggest bull move of the year. The star performer was palladium, which is used in catalytic converters. The metal rallied 95% during 2010, according to the Financial Times.

One major reason for the jump was the belief that Russia has exhausted its stockpiles of palladium that they had accumulated during the Cold War. The big metals trader, Johnson Matthey, said that palladium could swing into a "serious deficit" if sales from the Russian government diminish.

On the futures market, March palladium touched $800 per ounce. Some analysts are forecasting $1,000 per ounce in 2011.

Continue reading Palladium: Best Performer of 2010, Hits Nine-Year High

Russia Gains Foothold in U.S. Uranium Production

The Russians are coming. A Russian state-owned company will control almost half of U.S. uranium production in the next few years.

The Financial Times reported on a partial takeover deal between AMRZ, the uranium mining division of State-owned Rosaton and Toronto's Uranium One. Uranium One controls mining operations in Wyoming, which would give AMRZ a footprint in the U.S.

Before the deal was struck, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) gave its approval. In addition, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission also gaveit the go-ahead.

Continue reading Russia Gains Foothold in U.S. Uranium Production

Pepsi Is Buying Russian Dairy and Juice Maker Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods

PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) is buying Russian dairy and juice maker Wimm-Bill-Dann in a deal valued at about $5.4 billion, as reported in the Wall Street Journal.

Pepsi has set a long rage goal of reaching $30 billion in annual sales of health-oriented drinks and snacks by 2020. This deal will increase annual revenue to $13 billion from its present $10 billion.

Continue reading Pepsi Is Buying Russian Dairy and Juice Maker Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods

Doom & Gloom Economy or Rich America?

At times, it can be really hard to remember just how good we have it as Americans. In all the doom and gloom talk of the economy, such as Goldman Sachs saying it will be "fairly bad" at best over the coming six to nine months, I think this is we need to be reminded of this sometimes.

We are one of the richest and freest countries in the world. We have freedom of speech, press and religion. Economically, we are very well off. While with the weak U.S. dollar we may not be the richest country in the world anymore, we are far from poor.

To put things in perspective, here is a select list of some of the countries in the world and their 2009 gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity per capita, according to IMF data:

Continue reading Doom & Gloom Economy or Rich America?

Corn, Wheat and Soybean Prices Surge Higher on Weather Problems

The grain markets are highly weather dependent. The slightest whisper of a weather change can move grains by large magnitudes. And with crops in Canada and China in danger of freezing, some grains recorded two-year highs.

Western Canada experienced frost last week, damaging the region's crops, including wheat, canola and barley. Similarly, parts of China also experienced freezing weather, threatening some grain crops there. Meanwhile, in Russia, the severe drought, which caused the country to ban wheat exports, is continuing. Russian farmers have planted 39% less winter grains this year, according to Bloomberg.

Continue reading Corn, Wheat and Soybean Prices Surge Higher on Weather Problems

Russia's Putin Extends Ban on Grain Exports

In a surprise and unexpected move, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin told Reuters that he was extending the grain export ban until 2011. "I would like to note that lifting of the export ban can only be considered after next year's crops have harvested," Putin said according to Reuters.

Russia is now suffering through its worst drought in nearly 100 years. Grain harvest have been cut by two thirds, down to 60-65 million tons from 97 million tons in 2009.

Continue reading Russia's Putin Extends Ban on Grain Exports

Big Mac Index: What Burgers Say About Currency Valuations

"For the 24th year running that the Economist magazine has published its famed Big Mac Index; this index is a tongue-and-cheek way of measuring the purchasing power parity (PPP) -- that is, the relative overvaluation and undervaluation of the world's currencies," notes Nicholas Vardy.

The editor of The Global Stock Investor explains, "What does the Big Mac now say about the relative value of global currencies?

"According to the theory of purchasing power parity, a dollar should buy the same amount of the same good across all countries. By comparing the cost of Big Macs -- a good that is produced in about 120 countries -- the Big Mac Index calculates the exchange rate (the Big Mac PPP) that would result in hamburgers costing the same in America as they do abroad.

Continue reading Big Mac Index: What Burgers Say About Currency Valuations

Russia to Ban Grain Exports Due to Severe Drought

Russian flagIn a move that is creating havoc in the grain markets, Russian Prime Minister urged a temporary ban on Russian grain exports. The ban may begin as early as next week and would last through December.

Putin said the a ban would be "appropriate." Russia has "sufficient reserves of grain, but we must prevent domestic prices from rising, preserve cattle herds and build up reserves for next year."

Continue reading Russia to Ban Grain Exports Due to Severe Drought

Russia's Worst Drought in 50 Years Threatens Next Year's Crops

droughtLike 1973 when Russia was forced to buy wheat from the U.S. during the cold war, this could be one for the history books. Russia is suffering its worst drought in 50 years.

Rainfall along the Volga River was 10% to 30% of it long-term average. Temperatures are so hot that workers are forced to take breaks in their work schedule. Add to this wildfires covering more than 600-square miles, and you have major crisis brewing.

Continue reading Russia's Worst Drought in 50 Years Threatens Next Year's Crops

Wheat Moves Sharply Higher on Rumors of Drought in Russia

The grain markets are weather related. Any change in the normal growing weather pattern sends the markets into turmoil.

The story of the day is Russia. The farm ministry said that Russia will harvest 85 million metric tons of grain, down 5 million tons from the previous forecast. Why is this news? Russia and Canada vie with the U.S. as the second largest world wheat exporter.

Continue reading Wheat Moves Sharply Higher on Rumors of Drought in Russia

Brace for Deflation at Home, Inflation in Emerging Markets

There's a lot of talk about whether the recovery will stall or continue building momentum. We could get a very clear picture this week since the big economic news will likely be the May price reports. I'm expecting to see signs of deflation across the board -- which could take some of the wind out of consumers' sails.

Here's the news to look for:
  • Tuesday, June 15: May Import Prices. Expected decline of -1.5%.
  • Wednesday, June 16: May Producer Prices. Expected decline of -0.5%.
  • Thursday, June 17: May Consumer Prices. Expected decline of -0.2%.

Continue reading Brace for Deflation at Home, Inflation in Emerging Markets

Oil Prices Rebound Despite Bearish Inventory Report

rising oil pricesOil prices have rebounded from yesterday's sell off, despite a larger than expected increase in oil inventories last week.

As we noted yesterday, analysts were expecting to see a 250,000 barrel increase in reserves last week, but the Department of Energy reported today that inventories actually rose by a much greater 2.4 million barrels.

Continue reading Oil Prices Rebound Despite Bearish Inventory Report

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IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+5.7512,883.95
NASDAQ+11.782,915.86
S&P 500+2.911,349.96

Last updated: February 09, 2012: 02:23 AM

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