The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.

The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

"Stocks are likely in a new downtrend," says Michael Ashbaugh. In Marketwatch's The Technical Indicator, he looks at the S&P's prospects and some drug stocks set to buck the trend.

"The S&P 500 has violated its major moving averages in the closely tracked 900 area. The recent downturn was convincingly bearish, placing the burden on market bulls to reassert the uptrend.

"After finding resistance in the 923 area, the S&P sold off sharply, edging back under its 200-day moving average, which currently holds at 900 and now marks resistance. This is bearish price action.

Are we in a bull or bear market? If you came to this article for an answer, forget about it. If you think you know the answer, forget about it. One of the challenges of trading the markets is not knowing the answer. For example, earlier this year Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve announced that the Fed was buying treasury securities, which to all stretches of the imagination would trigger a bull market in treasuries. Now then, if you jumped in and bet the farm, you are the proud owner of a huge losses as the treasury market fell out of bed during recent months.

This is not to say that we shouldn't do our research to determine in our minds where the market is going. There are those analysts who look at long-term trends lasting for several years and sometimes decades. These longer periods are called "secular" trends. Then we have others who look at shorter periods, which are often called. "cyclical" moves. The "cyclical" moves usually fall within the longer "secular" markets.

The market spent the day as it has many a Friday in the summer: slowing going no where.

The University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment index showed a very modest increase in June up to 69, from 68.7 in May. The same survey showed that expectations for six months from now actually dropped.

Oil and gas prices still dominated the headlines. Oil still hovers around $72 and the average price of gas rose for the 45th consecutive day to $2.63. The has to rattle consumers who have precious little discretionary income as it is.

Despite a strongly bearish long-term outlook, technicians Stephen Hochberg and Robert Prechter continue to see near-term upside for the market.

In The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, a specialty service focused on a form of technical analyst known as Elliott wave theory, they explain, "Optimism is definitely on the increase, but it is not yet as the exteme that typically accompanies the end of a Primary degree rally.

"So notwithstanding near-term gyrations, the Dow should rise to the initial target, which remains in the 9,000 to 10,000 range.

My investment world leads me to deal with many brokers and I am constantly amazed at the bad advice that is so prevalent in the financial industry. I think many brokerage houses remain conflicted, try as they might to be otherwise.

Here is the latest example to reach my doorstep. We have personal assets with Charles Schwab (NASDAQ: SCHW) and they publish an in-house magazine for their clients called "onInvesting". In the summer 2009 issue listed under the heading of "Expert Insight" there is an article titled "How Sector Investing Can Work for You". I could not find a link to the story online. It is written by Brad Sorenson, CFA, director, Sector Analysis, Schwab Center for Financial Research.

The Dow is set to end another week with a close above 8,000. In fact, the U.S. stock market is at a crossroad of sorts.

Right now, Dow 8,000 is not an issue: 5 consecutive weekly closes and roughly 400 points above 8,000 suggest that battle has been won by bulls.

Still, the bears will argue that the Dow is not that far above the psychologically-important 8,000 level and that this market is more than capable of wiping out that cushion in two sessions. Further, the bears also argue that while the Dow has closed above 8,000 for about a month, it hasn't been able to both make and sustain new highs above 8,600, then 8,800 and 9,000 etc.

This post was written by Minyanville contributor James Kostohryz.

As per the trade I laid out yesterday, with today's durable goods orders number that was significantly better than expected, we might be looking at S&P 930 today rather than sub 900 if the market had not gotten blindsided by yesterday's sudden plunge in long bonds. That's what stops are for.

But let's put this in perspective: A 12-point drop between yesterday's high of around 913 and the current level of 901 is small potatoes relative to what is at stake here.

Western Digital (NYSE: WDC - option chain) shares are rising today after Standard & Poor's announced yesterday that WDC will be added to the S&P 500 to replace Embarq (NYSE: EQ), which is being acquired by CenturyTel Inc. (NYSE: CTL). When this happens, mutual funds and other services that track the S&P 500 will have to buy WDC, which usually gives the stock a boost higher or at least a floor. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WDC.

WDC opened this morning at $24.95. So far today the stock has hit a low of $24.35 and a high of $25.25. As of 11:30, WDC is trading at $24.68 up 0.32 (1.3%). The chart for WDC looks bearish and S&P gives WDC a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell ranking.

In an earlier post I said that the lows of March 9 should be retested. If at that point the March 9 lows hold and a second rally begins, you would have a W bottom which is more powerful than just a single bottom.

David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates is of the same mindset but more from fundamental standpoint. His main theme is that consumer spending did not pick up and is keeping the economy in the doldrums.

The market is down again today and there are millions of people trying to figure out why. Some will tell you they know why and give you a plausible rationale. There may be bits of truth here and there but there is also an arbitrary nature too. If not arbitrary, then haphazard.

The market may be down because nobody in Washington - Obama, Benanke or Geitner - made a speech today pounding the drum for a brighter economic outlook.

It could be because oil prices have been slowly rising again as inventories are drawn down.

Two pieces of positive news hit the wire early in the day. First time filings for state unemployment benefits fell slightly, If that number continues to drop over the next few weeks, the rate at which people are losing jobs may actually have stabilized. Adding to the sense of optimism, the Chicago purchasing managers index rose from 31.4 in March to 40.1 in April: an extraordinary jump.

Here are the unofficial closing numbers:

Dow 8,169.00 -16.73 (-0.20%)
S&P 500 872.42 -1.22 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 1,715.10 +3.16 (0.18%)

The PPT is the vaunted Plunge Protection Team, a much derided but often alluded to collusion of the major prime brokerages (Goldman, Morgan, Stanley, Citi) to halt major stock market declines by manipulating the market. It's never been proven, of course. But a firestorm of comments on ZeroHedge and in other places where hardcore (and some institutional traders) gather has zeroed in on the difficulties many have had borrowing shares of the S&P Index (SPY) in order to short the index. The commenters believe this is a result of the PPT holding back shares to stop any shorts that could torpedo the ongoing rally.

It's usually the big players who move the markets. Right now we are seeing a sizable rally in the stock market. We've had six straight weeks on the upside that have taken the S & P 500 up 28%.

Worldwide, equities have rallied also. The Nikkei is up 25%, Hong Kong 38%, the European index is up 24% and London's FTSE is up 16%. For those who follow major trends, rallies of 20% or more usually signal that a bottom has been reached.

It is difficult to tell whether this rally is fueled by "weak," short-term traders or big players, institutional investors who take longer term positions.

You will always find traders on both sides of this argument. For example, Duncan Neideraur, chief executive of NYSE Euronext, says that this rally is driven by short-term traders. On the other side, State Street, a leading custodian of monies for the big players, says that "institutions are backing this rally." Equity inflows are at their highest levels in 12 years.

Even if prices appear to be clawing their way through the overhead supply at around Dow 8,000 and S&P 500 825 to 875, the going is getting tougher.

The highest that the S&P has achieved so far was the high of Thursday, April 2, at 846, before it was turned aside on a minor reversal this Tuesday. Volume has been on the low side on both advances and declines, but this week that was no doubt due to the impending holiday weekend.