FeedPosted Mar 4th 2011 3:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Intel (INTC), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Citigroup Inc. (C), American Express (AXP), Chubb Corp (CB), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Entrepreneurs, Serious Money, Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), MetLife Inc. (MET), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV), Republic Services Inc. (RSG), Stock Picks, National Grid (NGG)

Prognosticators the world over are throwing in their 2 cents about "my pal Warren's" next market moves; especially since he announced last week that his trigger finger was itchy. When Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (
BRK.A and
BRK.B) speaks, investors listen.
On Wednesday March 2, this investor threw in his two cents worth (see:
Serious Money: What Should Warren Buffett Do Next?) discussing possible acquisitions. Since all the "pro's", I use the term loosely, have had a say I thought I would give readers a chance to express some of their ideas too.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett's Next Buys -- You Pick'em
Posted Feb 24th 2011 2:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Rants and Raves, Venezuela, Scandals, Politics, Serious Money, Oil, Stock Picks, Telefonica SA (TEF)

Venezuela is broken and Libya is on fire. The Chavez government is incompetent and the Gaddafi regime may be just
days away from collapse as chaos fills the streets. Rumors of Gaddafi escaping to Venezuela are unfounded. However, if two men ever deserved each other, these two fit the bill.
Chavez, in all his economic wisdom has brought on over 28% inflation and counting in addition to the
Currency Market Takeover Spurs Lines for Dollars. All this wonderful news led me to search for Venezuelan ADR's (American Depository Receipts) in case I wanted to follow the market there, and make a contrarian play, or if I really wanted to get wild short something.
Continue reading Serious Money: Chavez & Gaddafi, Real Blues Brothers
Posted Jan 11th 2011 5:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Netflix, Inc. (NFLX), Serious Money, salesforce.com inc (CRM), Stocks to Sell

The
Tulip mania in Holland went on for seven years, supporting John Maynard Keynes commentary that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." This is one of my favorite stock market quotes, so forgive me if I repeat it too often. Although, I'm not sure that is possible when I watch Netflix, Inc. (
NFLX) stock price continue to soar.
The stock was up almost 5% yesterday, on a down day, closing at $187.88, with a P/E of 70.90 --
that's 71 years times earnings folks!
Is that sensible? Investors are saying who cares? And the analysts are supporting them. The fact that analysts have a horrible track record and that the stock is highly speculative has become irrelevant.
Continue reading Serious Money: Netflix and Tulips
Posted Dec 7th 2010 4:40PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other Issues, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Deere and Co (DE), Politics, Serious Money
Leave it to our representatives in Washington to make a compromise that ignores most of their previously stated beliefs -- of only a few days ago. This just reinforces again the old joke "How do you know when a politician is lying?..."
Monday the Obama administration and congressional Republicans came to an agreement to extend both unemployment benefits by 13 months, and the Bush-era tax cuts for all by two years. What happened to the Republican and Democratic noise about fiscal responsibility and reducing the debt?
A few days ago Republicans were not going to vote for an extension of the unemployment funding if there was not an associated revenue offset to pay for it. That's gone, so the deficit is going up. The Democrats claimed they would not back an extension of the tax cuts for people that earned over $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for joint returns claiming this would add $900 billion toward debt reduction. That's gone so the deficit is going up.
Continue reading Serious Money: Washington Compromise Stinks, but Here Are Some Stocks to Look At
Posted Dec 1st 2010 11:00AM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Rumors, Press Releases, Management, Scandals, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), CIT Group (CIT), Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Politics, Serious Money, Financial Crisis
Forgive me if I stray slightly, but I could not help thinking about how ironic it would be if someone leaked information as to the whereabouts of Wikileaks founder and "fearless leader" Julian Assange -- who is in hiding!
It would be even more ironic if a CIA operative who had his cover blown by Wikileaks decides what goes around comes around. Let's face it, in its own way Wikileaks has become a rogue nation, so why wouldn't the CIA get involved?
In the mean time, this has probably helped world markets as it has overtaken everything else as the big story of the past 48 hours. In a bizarre way, Assange may have achieved one of his goals by bringing the world closer together, sort of.
Continue reading Serious Money: Does BAC Have Anything to Fear from Wikileaks?
Posted Nov 30th 2010 3:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), McDonald's (MCD), Amer Intl Group (AIG), Serious Money

Perusing through the
13D filings in Barron's November 29 issue I came across news reported by InsiderScore.com regarding American International Group, Inc. (
AIG). It was noted that
"Fairholme Capital raised its holdings to 39,990,099 shares (29%), by buying 1,765,900 shares from Nov. 5 to Nov. 16 at prices ranging from $41.72 to $43.59."
I do not usually make mention of such things but owning 29% of a company capitalized at $5.6 billion dollars is a lot. I would even go as far as to say that in some circumstances that might equate to controlling interest. Prior to "my pal Warren" (Buffett) making an offer to acquire the Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad for Berkshire Hathaway (
BRK.A) it only owned 23% of the outstanding shares.
Continue reading Serious Money: AIG Takeover by Fairholme Capital?
Posted Jul 12th 2010 2:30PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Competitive Strategy, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Market Matters, Amer Intl Group (AIG), Serious Money, Stocks to Buy, MetLife Inc. (MET)

To continue the saga of what might be on Warren Buffett's foreign wish list, consider the current holdings of Berkshire Hathaway (
BRK.A/
BRK.B), the largest of which is insurance. The insurance industry has been hard hit by the economy, but it also has the greatest potential to rebound of any industry. Insurance companies have huge cash flow and a large float (mandated by government regulation) that can be used for investments. This has been a major contributing factor in Buffett's success.
Unlike the construction, automobile or financial sectors that have been met with an economic tidal wave that destroyed demand, there is no lack of demand in the insurance industry. The insurance companies have been hurt by the shrinking of their investment portfolios more than loss of demand or even claims, accepting companies that wrote swaps, like American International Group (
AIG).
When next
"my pal Warren" invests abroad he may not have to go very far.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Going Global -- Part 5
Posted Jun 22nd 2010 3:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Management, General Electric (GE), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), Brazil, Goldman Sachs Group (GS), Mexico, Canada, Serious Money, Israel

There are many places that Warren Buffett may choose to invest Berkshire Hathaway (
BRK.A /
BRK.B) capital. At the same time you can be sure there are places he will not set foot. It is not likely he will invest anywhere that does not have a vibrant, well-established stock market with a stable government. So, Mr. Hugo Chavez in Venezuela will not likely see any capital deployed from the likes of
"my pal Warren" any time soon.
As a matter of fact, I would put the chances at slim of any South American country, besides Brazil, getting a look at all. Brazil is just too big and too vibrant to ignore. I would rule out Africa entirely except for indirect investments in oil and minerals through large conglomerates. The closest thing in the region would be Israel, at the furthest western reaches of Asia. He has already invested there and there is a high probability he would again. Investors from most of Europe and Asia have done the same, although many would rather not discuss it.
He has also invested in China, Great Britain, South Korea, and Switzerland. I would expect more money to be plowed into all of them again without reservation if the right deal materialized.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buffett Looking Beyond Our Borders -- Part 3
Posted Jun 3rd 2010 2:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Other Issues, Microsoft (MSFT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Oracle Corp (ORCL), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Serious Money, Oil, Transocean Ltd. (RIG)

Stocks have fallen over the past month and certain stocks have fallen considerably. If you have lost equity recently and can find similarly positioned stocks, it may be wise to consider some lateral moves. Selling one stock and buying something comparable allows you to claim a loss while still remaining fully invested.
In this way you do not have to observe the 30-day rule where you cannot claim a loss in a stock sold today if you buy it back until after 30 days have past. In 30 days the market opportunity to repurchase the shares of the company you sold at good price may have also past.
Continue reading Serious Money: Tax Savings, Lateral Moves
Posted May 27th 2010 3:20PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Indices, Money and Finance Today, Consolidated Edison (ED), Duke Energy (DUK), Serious Money, S and P 500, DJIA, Stocks to Buy, Southern Company (SO), NASDAQ, Xcel Energy (XEL), Northeast Utilities (NU)

We can make this short and sweet: buying utilities pays off in many ways that other investments do not. Utilities pay regular dividend distributions that are higher than most stocks, bonds, Treasuries, and certificates of deposit. In these volatile times, utility stocks add stability to your portfolio and moderate the wild swings. And, here is the kicker that everyone but day traders will appreciate: long term returns beat all of the major indices over time.
The following charts and stocks will further make the case.
Continue reading Serious Money: Powerful Dividends Powering the Nation
Posted May 25th 2010 3:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Wal-Mart (WMT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Market Matters, Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Procter and Gamble (PG), PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR), Serious Money, Stocks to Buy, China Mobile Limited (CHL), Stock Picks

The twelve super caps are down to seven: Proctor & Gamble, Wal-Mart, Johnson & Johnson, China Mobile, PetroChina, Microsoft and ExxonMobil. Five are American companies and two are Chinese. The five U.S.-based enterprises have historically strong management teams and balance sheets. If this was the only criteria, I might take pause when considering the two Chinese companies only because I do not know enough about them to make a judgment, except that they have been very successful.
"My pal Warren" placed a large bet on PetroChina (
PTR), which he has since sold off, but he always makes a big deal about management, so we will give these two the benefit of the doubt. The two also pay the highest yields among the group.
So where do we stand today? We'll stick with all seven and here is why.
Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 6 -- Conclusions
Posted May 24th 2010 12:00PM by Sheldon Liber (RSS feed)
Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart (WMT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Procter and Gamble (PG), PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR), Wells Fargo (WFC), Serious Money, China Mobile Limited (CHL), Financial Crisis, Stock Picks
The market continues to be very volatile and trending down. When the seas are this turbulent you want to be on the biggest ships and thus I continue my review of the super cap stocks. This time, I'm going to examine return-on-equity (ROE) and return on-invested-capital (ROIC).
I started with the 12 highest valued companies but remained with 10 after running them through several screens. Among those 10 super, caps the company that is producing the highest returns is Microsoft (MSFT).
Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 5 -- ROE, ROIC
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