Recently I posted a Serious Money metrics story that included Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) comparisons along with six other stocks. Until now I have not felt very strongly about the merits of Microsoft's offer to acquire Yahoo! and merge assets and features.
I was leaning toward the price is too high camp, but now, after Microsoft has withdrawn the offer and I have looked at the current state of affairs of both companies, I think it did the right thing and may have avoided a nightmare.
To bring Yahoo! into the fold, Microsoft would have had to find enough cost savings by eliminating overlapping departments or it would have had to hope it could double Yahoo's earnings. If not, the acquisition would unduly weigh down the mother ship, because Microsoft's P/E Ratio of 17.08 is half that of Yahoo!'s 34.25.
When you look at the ROE,Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) -- with its 45.28% -- has a four times greater return than that of Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO)'s 10.96%. Yahoo looks like another drag.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner among only four that had appreciated. The following indicates commonly used metrics for tracking and comparing stocks.
Reviewing the stocks in order of lowest to highest P/E ratio (TTM):
It is interesting to note that only two of the eight have a below market P/E ratio, while only two are average. On the other hand, four are double the average and beyond, which leads me to believe the overall market consensus is that it is still very early in the game for these stocks and their futures are yet to be determined. The P/E ratios of the four are also the most volatile as are the stock prices.
Every time I see a story about Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) I am infuriated and bewildered. How in the world can a 13 year old company have a P/E ratio of 70 and $32 billion capitalization on 37% year over year growth. The top line growth is great and so is the growth in net earnings but does it justify a P/E of 70?
Yesterday Amazon impressed Wall Street by beating expectations in many areas. However, two areas that disappointed were it's reduced earnings projections for the year and a lack of transparency or specifics in certain segments of its enterprise. Also if earnings were lowered by 4% to 6% then why is the stock only down 3%?
The stock is down about $2 from yesterday's close of $81 fluctuating in the the high 70's. From my perspective the stock is way too high and the limited number of shareholders is still holding up the price. Last year I wrote Who owns Amazon.com - really? and not much has changed in this regard.
Since I have been a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), I have enjoyed reading with great interest the musings of company chairman Warren Buffett as he gives almost a play-by-play review of the year in his letter to shareholders. He writes in a tone I would compare to Will Rogers, the writer, actor, comedian, cowboy and former mayor of Beverly Hills.
"My pal Warren" highlights both the triumphs and disasters of the year and his own perspective of the State of the Union and the economy like only he can. I strongly recommend investors take the time to read his letter(s).
One of the most often referred to items in Buffett's letters is regarding the quality of the management at each of the companies that Berkshire owns, or has major stock holdings in. There are many shrewd investors who will make a convincing argument that the quality of management is the highest priority.
He glowingly speaks of the wisdom, integrity and hard work of his management partners. He openly states that one reason that most of Berkshire acquisitions tend to work so well is the mutual appreciation of these character traits they all share. Unlike many companies that look to make money by shaking up the management structure, Buffett bases his investment strategy on keeping the strong management that built the enterprise in place.
It was June 7, 2006 when I set up a tracking portfolio for our great eight stocks. AOL Money & Finance started BloggingStocks with a focus on these companies based on investor interest. Today, they still stimulate a lot of interest, and comments.
The following share prices are from the original tracking date now updated to last Friday's close, April 11, 2008. Earnings season is upon us again. The Iraq war is still in the headlines, as are the presidential elections, energy prices, recession fears and our latest calamity -- the shameful Washington/Wall Street axis of financial evil. Here are the BloggingStocks eight:
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was $60.00 and is up to $147.14 gaining 145%.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was $32.00 and is down to $30.87 losing 3.35%.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) was $34.50 and is down to $32.05 losing 7.1%.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was $380.00 and is up to $457.45 gaining 20.38%.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was $22.50 and is up to $28.28 gaining 25.69%.
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) was $17.50 and is down to $14.27 losing 18.46%.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) was $47.00 and is up to $54.80 gaining 16.6%.
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was $31.00 and is down to $28.34 losing 8.58%.
So after 22 months we find four stocks are up and four stocks are down. Apple is the clear winner and remains the company to watch going forward. New trend-setting products are introduced regularly and few companies can match its inventiveness or marketing genius. Steve Jobs has hit a grand slam. Microsoft, the perennial cash generating machine, came in second with very strong results given the current state of the economy.
Among the surprises and the one I have taken the most flack for is that Google has not done very well in my eyes. It has been highly volatile and makes for a good trading stock, but if you add the dividend of 3.48% to Wal-Marts appreciation you have about the same growth with one tenth the downside risk.
eBay and GE are remarkable for having achieved nothing over our review period, and although they are down now I consider them break-even investments because they have been trading a few bucks higher and a few lower the entire period. Lots of promise, little results.
Lastly, Time Warner and Yahoo! are big disappointments. Time Warner (owner of BloggingStocks) has a new CEO and change is in the air. Yahoo! is in Microsoft's cross-hairs and looks like it will be something else in a few months. Ironically the two companies are in the midst of discussions to find a way to help each other out of their stagnation. I hope they succeed. Both have great franchises that are struggling to gain traction. Both must contend with Google and Microsoft.
Going forward Apple may be the best bet and Microsoft will probably continue to mint money. The others may just tread water for a while.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY, and TWX.
We have seen this play before, and there are two scenarios as to how it could end. Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is being challenged like never before, having saturated the market place in some locations it is now facing the challenges of selling expensive coffee in a slowing economy.
Would you rather pay $4 for a cup of coffee or a gallon of gas? You can find cheaper coffee but you have few options to find cheaper fuel. Amid the already difficult operating environment Starbucks is faced with competition from the largest restaurant chain in the world, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD). McDonald's is looking to steal its morning thunder with competitive offerings at a far lower pricing structure. The threat is very real no matter what spin Starbucks puts on it.
This brings to mind two similar situations both involving Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and past competitors. Early on there were two word processing programs that together probably had 90% market share. Those were Wordperfect and Wordstar. Both of them were fine programs offering strong features, and now they are nowhere. Microsoft displaced both of them with MS-Word integrated with their Office suite of products, and is now king.
At each century mark I like to post something special to note the occasion. This is my 600th post since lead editor Amey Stone asked me to join her original blogging team. That was a little over two years ago and I must say, it has been a fascinating experience from atop AOL's giant soap box.
Although investors have had to withstand a tremendous amount of turmoil in the market place, and not just the stock market, there is much to report that is very positive on this Good Friday. So, in no particular order I give you the following to consider.
The stock market closed up yesterday, and for the week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average settling in at 12,361.32,up 261.66. The NASDAQ closed at 2,258.11, up 48.15 and the S&P 500 Index finished at 1,329.51 up 31.09.
The stock market being up at all after so much bad news and given the longer weekend is a miracle. I would have thought traders would have wanted to be out of the market for the stretch. The Dow is above 12,000 and all things considered that is good.
News from Iraq shows signs of improvement and while Osama bin Laden may still be issuing hateful video tapes, he is not doing so from a five-star hotel and is likely to perish in the rubble of his hiding place.
Crude oil reached an all-time high price this week, but by Thursday had retreated more than 10% dropping below $100 per barrel. The reason for the retreat was fear about a recession, but I think I will take the lower prices as a positive regardless of the reason.
We have a vibrant presidential campaign that has stimulated interest among young and old alike with three candidates each offering something new.
In sports, March Madness is upon us and the NBA play-offs are just around the corner. The boys of summer have started to loosen their limbs for the long stretch to October and the steroid noise has settled down to a whisper, at least for now.
The majority of economists now seem to believe we are in a recession. That is a good thing because we need capitulation before we can improve. I do not think we will hear the president capitulate, but maybe he has and just can't bring himself to use the word.
Spring is here and the days are brighter longer.
Even though many industries have seen a downturn in business, many are still booming.
The devalued dollar has had the predictable effect of improving our trade imbalances.
Unemployment is still relatively low.
AOL finally got it's much improved stock section out of beta test mode this week, now up and running.
Interest rate cuts (which I have my doubts about) are serving to stabilize financial markets. I think that there will be bad news from the financial markets for the rest of the year, but very little will shock us any more. If the shock effect is gone -- implied by the up market yesterday and to my great surprise last Monday, than we may have turmoil and bad news but after a few more gyrations the stock market will move up.
Among the many good things to report, there is value in the market among many sectors. There are many stocks on my shopping list worth buying. These I will leave for post 601...
Have a GOOD FRIDAY!
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture and planning firm. He writes Chasing Value and Serious Money columns.
Recently CNN/Money posted an article called Who gets rich off $3 gas - who doesn't, which I thought I would bring to your attention. The rising cost of gasoline at the pump, now $4 in some places, is hurting many people on fixed incomes, like seniors and students, and those commuting long distances to work, or for work.
There is plenty of public fury to go around and while OPEC and the big oil companies get a lot of the blame, your local gasoline station owner has to face the heat close up and personal, even though on this food chain they benefit the least from rising prices.
The rescuing of the domestic financial markets (banks and Wall Street investment houses) by sacrificing treasury notes, exacerbating deficits, all the while lowering the prime rate and discount rate, have pushed oil prices higher, as oil producers to their chagrin, are paid in devalued dollars and are trying to maintain equilibrium.
There must a few other market saps out there like me who are wondering why Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) closed yesterday at $5.91 per share when it has been reported continuously for the last 72 hours that JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) was only paying $2 per share to take over the company. Now it is being reported that the figure is $2.34 -- Oh boy!
I say market saps because I hold the stock and could sell it for more than the $2 but I don't. Why not? What am I hoping for? Until this morning there has not even been the slightest rumor that some white knight will come to the rescue and acquire the company for more than the measly $238 to $276 million price tag being discussed.
Yesterday I wrote that what "JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is paying for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) would not have been enough to buy the brand name last year, never mind the whole company." This being the case, I would love to see the line by line worksheet that the negotiators (some might call them scoundrels) assisted by the Federal Reserve Board worked up to determine the acquisition price. I understand that JPM is assuming a mountain of liabilities but I thought that the Fed has given JPM assurances that they would cover short term losses. In the long run, some of that bad paper is going to be worth billions of dollars.
Even though I just recently started blogging in October 2007-- after I closed my hedge fund -- I first began to understand that there was some real money to be made when Jeremy Schoemaker of Shoemoney.com posted THIS picture of a check for $132,994.97 from Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) as his AdSense income in August 2005.
Later that year, John Chow of JohnChow.com also started blogging about ways to make money online and now he, too, regularly earns $30,000 per month from blogging, all broken down and detailed on his site. Since my monthly blog income on my own personal blog is just a few thousand dollars, I decided to ask John Chow for some pearls of wisdom, here's the interview: 1. What have been some of the keys to your success?
I think one of the biggest reasons for my blogging success has been consistency. There has never been a single day that has gone by where I did not have a new blog post for people to read. One of the biggest mistakes a new blogger makes is by being an on again off again blogger. You can't build a blog this way.
Another key is just being myself. I show the good and the bad and let the chips fall where they may. A blog is not CNN or News.com. Your readers are there to read your opinion. You should give it to them instead of just giving the news without an opinion.
For me, I just find it unfathomable that management would either bet the farm on some very high risk investments, or equally bad, bet the farm on investments they did not fully comprehend. This is such an extreme case of mismanagement that investors the world over can not believe it was possible. As a matter of fact it seems so impossible that it is probably what kept many of us faithfully invested. Many of us take investment risks, some more than others, but to bet the whole farm? To bet your future existence? This is financial insanity.
Is this just a case of greed causing blindness? If so why was it so contagious among some firms and not others?
It seems to me that the reported $2 per share purchase price that JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) is paying for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) would not have been enough to buy the brand name last year, never mind the whole company. What we are witnessing is the strong (until JPM reports some surprise) taking advantage of the weak. It also exemplifies how bad the market is, that no other buyer has stepped in at these fire sale prices.
The government will soon be releasing the new $5 bill, adding a little color to the traditional mix. Given how fast the value of our currency has been dropping you would think that the Treasury would be more realistic about this problem accounting for the devaluation in some creative way.
Perhaps it should have said "$5?" so that people would understand the value was fluid. Maybe "$5-Not" adding the contemporary vernacular.
Then again, they could have left the amount off and tied it directly to the price of gas. This might be most appreciated by the average citizen. Just take off the $5 and replace it with "1 Gallon" and use a fuel pump as the new image.
This moves us backward in some ways creating more of a barter system. However, with commodity prices soaring and the dollar falling, I expect this to start happening in the very near future anyway. It would be viewed questionably by the IRS, but so be it. Then at least something in our lives would maintain some consistency.
Get a view of the new Mr. Lincoln: On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will send out its first shipments of the new $5 bills, which will feature purple and gray ink, in addition to other changes aimed at thwarting counterfeiters. From Portfolio.com:New $5 Bill's Special Features
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.
After recommending yesterday that our leaders should stimulate the economy by investing in infrastructure rather than mad money stimulus, and after discussing this with some business associates, I have a few more thoughts I'd like to share.
We have been hearing that 70% of our economy has been supported by the American consumer. Congress and the President have agreed on -- or colluded, depending on who you speak with -- a bi-partisan economic stimulus package. When, and if, the check arrives in the mail, there might be short-term glee among the populous. But if it is used just to stimulate more consumption, then it will only serve to postpone the pain by some time -- perhaps a month or two.
If I get anything back, I will be using it to reduce debt or invest in equity and nothing else. I hope my fellow citizens are able to understand that reducing debt or investing in equity has some value, while consuming, that is, rushing out to buy a flat-screen television or a new PlayStation, is a complete waste of a one-time opportunity.
I'm sure the downtrodden stock market has brought sadness to many people. As someone looking long term I am trying to put the current market into perspective. 'My pal Warren' always says that truly astute investors should actually be happy when the market is down because they are able to buy things on sale. I agree, so what to buy?
Three of the stocks I have been following fall into very different arenas. One is being severely affected by the housing market and familiar to the average consumer. The second might be a familiar name but not a daily haunt by the average consumer. The third falls into the middle ground and is a solid company and favored by Warren Buffett who owns shares through Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A).
It's been a while since I wrote about The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE: HD). My optimism last year about the company proved misguided as the stock tread water most of the year and then took a dive as earnings reports deteriorated. When I originally commented on HD 14 months ago it was trading at $39.73, finishing the year at $26.27 for a loss of 33.88%. It started with a 2.31% yield .
It seems investors the world over are rediscovering the precious metal after years of neglect. How could you expect anything else with social unrest, war and recession fears on the front pages of every newspaper, with China and India growing rapidly, placing high demand on all commodities, and with a head-in-the-sand administration just now lifting itself up to take a gander at the last few months of its dubious leadership.
Despite recession fears, there is also the serious possibility of dramatic inflation in the next few years based on deficit spending, the ever expanding federal government and lack of concern for the value (buying power) of the currency. It's pitiful. Gold has been an historic hedge against inflation, so why should now be any different?This has ignited one of my 2008 picks Chasing Value: Anglo American (AAUK) is down...but!, which has moved up sharply in the last week.
I do not know where the ceiling is on gold prices, but it does not seem historically high, and I still think AAUK and FCX belong on everyone's watch list.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.
About a month ago I posted 
Every time I see a story about 
Since I have been a shareholder of 
We have seen this play before, and there are two scenarios as to how it could end. 
Recently CNN/Money posted an article called 
There must a few other market saps out there like me who are wondering why 
For me, I just find it unfathomable that management would either bet the farm on some very high risk investments, or equally bad, bet the farm on investments they did not fully comprehend. This is such an extreme case of mismanagement that investors the world over can not believe it was possible. As a matter of fact it seems so impossible that it is probably what kept many of us faithfully invested. Many of us take investment risks, some more than others, but to bet the whole farm? To bet your future existence? This is financial insanity.
The government will soon be releasing the new $5 bill, adding a little color to the traditional mix. Given how fast the value of our currency has been dropping you would think that the Treasury would be more realistic about this problem accounting for the devaluation in some creative way.
After recommending yesterday that our leaders should stimulate the economy by investing in infrastructure rather than 
I'm sure the downtrodden stock market has brought sadness to many people. As someone looking long term I am trying to put the current market into perspective. 'My pal Warren' always says that truly astute investors should actually be happy when the market is down because they are able to buy things on sale. I agree, so what to buy?
It was 
The week in preview: Smooth sailing ahead
Comfort Zone Investing: One thriving area of real estate: Apartments
Just how high will U.S. gasoline prices rise?
