Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ: BOBE) owns and operates full-service restaurants, under the Bob Evans and Mimi's Cafe brand names. The Bob Evans chain consists of 571 stores in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions of the United States. Mimi's Cafe runs 132 restaurants, primarily in California and other western states. The company is also a leading producer of pork sausage and complementary homestyle convenience foods, under the Bob Evans and Owens brand names. Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is a competitor.
The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported solid Q4 results and issued in-line guidance for its FY09 performance. The CEO attributed success to cost management on the restaurant side and better-than-expected numbers from the food products business. The shares were subsequently upgraded from "neutral" to "buy" at MKM Partners.
After hitting a one-year high of $35.79 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $23.75 in January. This morning, SFD opened at $29.10. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.22 and a high of $29.35. As of 12:15, SFD is trading at $28.76, down 1.37 (-4.5%). The chart for SFD looks bullish and steady before today's drop, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $35 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four and a half months as long as SFD is below $35 at October expiration. Smithfield would have to rise by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
SFD hasn't been above $35 for more than a few days in the past year and has shown resistance around $32 recently. This trade could be risky if the cost of feed grains relax in the coming months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance SFD might have around $32, where it topped out last month.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SFD.
Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report quarterly results in the first week of June, 2008.
The following companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) up 136.6% (from a loss) to $1.12 per share, on $499.1 million in revenue
Reuters reports that workers at Quality Pork Processors Inc in Austin, MN have contracted a new disease -- symptoms include inflammation of the spinal cord, mild weakness, fatigue, numbness and tingling in the arms and legs. The source of these symptoms appears to be these workers' use of compressed air to blow pork brains out of the skull cavity.
Why is this happening? A doctor has been studying 18 Minnesota patients, all of whom have evidence of nerve involvement, typically affecting the legs. He said tests showed patients had damage to the nerves at the root level near the spinal cord, and at the far reaches of their motor nerves, where the nerves connect with muscle.
Why should investors care about this? It's worth looking at whether any publicly traded pork processors use the same technique that Quality Pork Processors does for blowing out pork brains. One candidate for further study is Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), a global pork processor. So far the pork workers have not sued their employer for the disease. But if the problem becomes more severe and widespread, it could affect pork processor profits.
And that would cause nerve problems for investors as well as workers.
With the markets still in a choppy/consolidation mode (or perhaps worse), it's best to consider including a few defensive stocks in your portfolio, and with the aforementioned in mind Smithfield Foods is worth an evaluation.
Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is the world's largest pork processor and hog producer. The company's products include fresh pork and processed meats sold under the Packerland, John Morrell, Lykes, Patrick Cudahy, and Smithfield Premium names.
Analysts expect Smithfield's F2008 revenue to increase 15-25% after a modest increase in F2007.
Meanwhile, beef margins are expected to widen, offsetting likely narrower hog margins. An improved product mix, including an expansion of value-added products, also has gladdened analysts' hearts.
Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is the largest hog producer and pork processor in the world, offering fresh pork, smoked and boiled ham, bacon, sausage, hot dogs and ready-to-eat foods. Products are sold under such brand names as Smithfield, John Morrell, Cumberland Gap, Patrick Cudahy, Cook's Ham and Armour-Eckrich Meats. Smithfield is also the fifth-largest beef processor in the United States. Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) and Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) are major competitors.
The company surprised the Street late last month when it reported fiscal Q2 EPS of 24 cents and revenues of $3.46 billion. Analysts had been looking for 21 cents and $3.28 billion. Management noted that packaged meat profit margins more than doubled and earnings from international meat processing rose sharply. The SFD price popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
The market made small gains Thursday, but took time to hold on the huge gains over the previous two trading sessions. Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product was revised higher to 4.9%, up significantly from the 3.9% estimate released earlier. While it will take some time to work through all of the issues related to the credit crunch, 4.9% GDP indicates an economy that is firing on all cylinders and one nowhere near a recession.
The NYSE had volume of 3.5 billion shares with 1,472 shares advancing while 1,779 declined for a loss of 17.48 points to close at 9,773.57. On the NASDAQ, 2.1 billion shares traded, 1,376 advanced and 1,638 declined for a gain of 5.22 to 2,668.13.
In options there were 4.9 million puts and 5.3 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.92. Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) saw heavy volume on the January 4 calls (QXOAH) with over 48,300 options trading. Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) moved 33,700 of the March 4 calls (QXOCH). E*Trade Financial (NASDAQ: ETFC) saw heavy volume on the January 7.5 calls (EUSAU) with over 36,300 options trading. E*Trade Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ETFC) also had heavy volume on the December 5 (calls (EUSLA) with over 22,500 options trading. Mirant (NYSE: MIR) saw very heavy volume on the January 40 puts (MIRMH) with over 148,900 options trading; there was also very heavy volume on the Mirant (NYSE: MIR) March 40 puts (MIROH) with over 125,200 options crossed.
Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.
There is an outfit headquartered in Columbus, Ohio that got its start as a twelve-stool diner owned by a local farmer. He said he could not get any decent sausage for the diner and began making his own back at the farm. That was fifty-nine years ago. Both the diner and the sausage-making businesses have since prospered.
Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ: BOBE) owns and operates full-service restaurants, under the Bob Evans and Mimi's Cafe brand names. The Bob Evans chain consists of 579 stores in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions of the United States. Mimi's Cafe runs 118 restaurants, primarily in California and other western states. The company is also a leading producer of pork sausage and complementary home-style convenience foods, under the Bob Evans and Owens brand names. Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is a competitor.
The firm had good news for investors last Monday evening, when it announced Q2 EPS of 45 cents and revenues of $426.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 39 cents and $425.5 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $1.77-$1.84 ($1.72 consensus). The stock popped through 30-day and 50-day moving average resistance on the news and began consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Then, on Thursday evening, the board authorized a two million share addition to its stock buyback program. That boosted the current fiscal year authorization to five million shares and took the stock price to the top of the flag. Further upside is expected.
Solid Stocks for a Shaky Market Worried about the credit crunch, slower growth, and falling profits? Consider some companies that could fare well even in the worst of times. These include Diaego, GE, Waste Management, Stericycle, Iron Mountain, VCA Antech, Coca-Cola, Royal Caribbean, Smithfield Foods, Power Integrations, O'Reilly Automotive, Stryker, Sempra Energy, McDonald's, Raytheon and Dentsply International. Investing in 'Fortress' Stocks - BusinessWeek
Google Options Make Masseuse Multimillionaire Bonnie Brown was fresh from a nasty divorce in 1999, living with her sister and uncertain of her future. On a lark, she answered an ad for an in-house masseuse at Google, then a Silicon Valley start-up with 40 employees. She was offered the part-time job, which started out at $450 a week but included a pile of Google stock options that she figured might never be worth a penny. Google Options Make Masseuse a Multimillionaire - New York Times
6 Critical Retirement Missteps When it comes to making crucial decisions about retirement payouts, you don't get do-overs. Avoiding mistakes can save you thousands of dollars in taxes. Here are six missteps to avoid. Six Critical Retirement Missteps - Kiplinger.com
America's Best Leaders U.S. News highlights 18 leaders in business, education, politics and more who motivate people to work together to accomplish great things. See what makes the leaders shine and what other can learn from Michael J. Fox, Andrea Jung, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Kenneth Chenault, Yo-Yo Ma, Nancy Pelosi, Pat Summitt and more. Best Leaders (usnews.com)
Gift Cards Become Even More Popular: 2007 Guide Bankrate's third annual gift card survey reveals that gift cards purchased directly from retailers carry no fees, while cards from the big four credit card issuers and major shopping mall operators come with fees and expiration dates. Compare fees, expiration dates and more of top card companies, retailers and electronic gift card. 2007 Gift Card Study: Consumers love them -Bankrate
Casual Restaurants Resort to Coupons Here's the surest sign that casual dining is in the dregs: Coupons are flying. For consumers, it might seem like edible gold. Five dollars off here. Two-for-ones there. Casual restaurants resort to coupons as meal tickets - USATODAY.com
The Gas Saving Idea America Won't Adopt The benefits of carpooling have been pushed for decades, but most Americans still do not carpool. Hawaiians carpool the most with 16.4% carpooling and residents of Massachuetts do the least with only 7.2% having carpooled. State-By-State Look at Carpooling
The Cost of Bedbugs Hotels and rental housing are hit by a resurgence in bedbug infestation-and lawsuits are proving it's not a problem that can be swept under the rug. The Cost of Bedbugs - BusinessWeek
While stocks boomed yesterday on the Fed's 50 basis point rate cut, Smithfield Foods Inc's (NYSE: SFD) stock dropped as analysts wrote that improved pork production in China could lead to excess production being sent to the U.S. market.
Due to this increase in supply, pork prices have declined more than 11% recently, according to a China news report. The recovery of pork production could be a sign that the swine flu, which set the industry back for years, is finally under control in this part of the world.
In August, Smithfield announced it would sell 60 million pounds of pork to China, but it appears the Chinese do not need it all. It looks like we have an ugly supply and demand imbalance building in the pig business.
Back on Tuesday, JP Morgan recommended investors buy shares of Virginia-based Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE: SFD) into their earnings report, with expectations of a strong quarter. Early this morning, the Virginia-based hog, pork and beef producer blew away third-quarter earnings, reporting Q1 earnings per share (EPS) of 47 cents, well over the consensus of 42 cents.
To help achieve this monumental quarter, Smithfield continued its focus on higher margin and fully processed products, a strategy that had produced better margins in their pork segment a year ago. "Generally, the second and third quarters are the best for the pork segment as demand generally improves as we enter the Fall holiday period," CEO C. Larry Pope said in a statement today. Pope expects the live hog market to remain strong for the next six-to-twelve months. Excluding the problems in Romania, Pope said he was "reasonably optimistic about the remainder of fiscal 2008."
With a solid first quarter behind them, does this mean the best is yet to come for Smithfield? Despite the market facing some pressure today, Smithfield Foods is up $2.40, to $32.47.
Beef, pork and turkey producer Smithfield Foods, Inc. (NYSE: SFD) recently released 4Q 2007 earnings (June 7). Sales were up 10% to $3.1 billion, but income from continuing operations was up to just under $40 million or diluted EPS of $.35, six times the amount from 4Q 2006. Net income for the quarter was $37 million. Too bad that's not the whole story. Smithfield is in the midst of restructuring its pork raising and processing operations. Restructuring costs for that totaled $10 million for the quarter. Also, Smithfield incurred a pretax charge of $8.2 million in its beef segment, as well as losses associated with shedding it Quik-to-Fix Foods and its bioenergy business unit.
Few things are going well for Smithfield Foods. Profit margins improved in its pork segment which posted 31% volume gain in the sale of packaged pork products. Growth was especially good in the company's international markets. Gains in the hog segment were welcome given that hog production prices have gone up, while hog production was down 9% due to the effects of the hog circovirus, from which major hog producers are only now beginning to recover. Smithfield is currently reducing its domestic hog production facilities while simultaneously ramping up hog production capacity in Poland and Romania, where production costs are much lower.
The company's beef segment operated at a loss. Feeding costs (grain) were up as was the price for feeder cattle to bring to market, while severe winter weather domestically drove up production costs. The good news is that the losses in the beef segment this quarter were less than losses in the equivalent quarter a year ago.
Almost six million pounds of ground beef suspected of harboring E. coli bacteria has been recalled by United Food Group LLC. The bad beef was sold throughout the West in groceries including Albertson's, Trader Joe's and Sav-A-Lot, under brand names Moran's All Natural (too natural, if you ask me), Miller Meat Company, Stater Bros., Trader Joe's Butcher Shop, Inter-American Products Inc. and Basha's. Fourteen cases of E. coli illness have been linked to the beef since April 25.
Last year, the U.S. population consumed 28 billion pounds of beef, from almost 34 million head of bovine, worth in excess of $37 billion. While the United Food Group is an LLC, the specter of contaminated beef could impact publiclly traded beef vendors such as Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) and Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) as well.
To put the magnitude of this recall in perspective, if we assume the average American adult weighs 175 pounds, it represents the weight of 34,285 people -- the entire population of Beverly Hills, CA, or Panama City, FL or Rome, NY.
The news comes at a particularly vulnerable time for the U.S. export market, as China is vigorously responding to the criticism of its food processing in the tainted pet food scandal by placing American food imports under the microscope. Over the weekend, Chinese officials rejected a shipment of American pistachios because they found ants among the nuts.
United Food Group has set up a hot line to answer questions about the recall, 1-800-325-4164.
After reading Tom Barlow's post on the Chinese Strategic Pork Reserve mentioned in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), I couldn't resist throwing the new intern in to do a little more research on this exciting topic.
The US Strategic Oil Reserve has enough crude cover oil imports and run the entire country for about two months. How does the Strategic Pork Reserve stand up to that?
The numbers the intern pulled up indicated that there are 1.65 million hogs in the Chinese strategic pork reserve. Is it called the piggy bank? Wow that sounds like a lot of meat; but wait there are a lot of Chinese people too. And how big is a pig? An average hog dresses out at 133 pounds of edible meat. There are 1.3 billion people in China. This means that for every 788 Chinese there is one hog in the reserve. That comes out to about 2.7 ounces of bacon per Chinese person.
and operates full-service restaurants, under the Bob Evans and Mimi's Cafe brand names. The Bob Evans chain consists of 571 stores in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions of the United States. Mimi's Cafe runs 132 restaurants, primarily in California and other western states. The company is also a leading producer of pork sausage and complementary homestyle convenience foods, under the Bob Evans and Owens brand names. Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is a competitor.
The company surprised the Street late last month when it reported fiscal Q2 EPS of 24 cents and revenues of $3.46 billion. Analysts had been looking for 21 cents and $3.28 billion. Management noted that packaged meat profit margins more than doubled and earnings from international meat processing rose sharply. The SFD price popped on the news and then moved into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling on entry. In this case, that would be to the upside.
The market made small gains Thursday, but took time to hold on the huge gains over the previous two trading sessions. Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product was revised higher to 4.9%, up significantly from the 3.9% estimate released earlier. While it will take some time to work through all of the issues related to the credit crunch, 4.9% GDP indicates an economy that is firing on all cylinders and one nowhere near a recession. 
million. Analysts had been expecting 39 cents and $425.5 million. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $1.77-$1.84 ($1.72 consensus). The stock popped through 30-day and 50-day moving average resistance on the news and began consolidating the gain in a bullish "flag" pattern. Then, on Thursday evening, the board authorized a two million share addition to its stock buyback program. That boosted the current fiscal year authorization to five million shares and took the stock price to the top of the flag. Further upside is expected..gif){kind=logo}
Almost six million pounds of ground beef suspected of harboring E. coli bacteria 
After reading Tom Barlow's 
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How Fannie and Freddie will fail
Before the bell: Stocks may rebound; HPQ, FRE, EBAY, AAPL, AUY, F
