Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA) to Buy from Neutral and has a $5.50 target on shares. Shares were upgraded due to the potential impact from infrastructure spending. Note that Goldman downgraded Steel Dynamics (NYSE: STLD) and Olympic Steel (NYSE: ZEUS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Buy from Neutral and raised the price target to $18 from $15. The firm the strong Q1 report gives them greater confidence in shares.
  
• Roth Capital upgraded Halozyme (NASDAQ: HALO) to Buy from Hold due to increased clarity into Roche programs, the discontinuation of the chemophase program, and progress on insulin delivery.
• American Movil (NYSE: AMX) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) were upgraded at HSBC to Overweight from Neutral.

I remember Toronto during SARS. As one of the harder hit areas, it was not a happy place. It was the end of winter, but that miserable, cold winter just didn't want to end. People walked the streets in a gloomy haze, afraid to take the subway and giving dirty looks to anyone brazen enough to cough in public. Worse, I couldn't even visit a friend in the hospital. All things considered though, in global pandemic terms, it was over relatively quickly. Let's hope swine flu will be the same.

In the meantime, let's put on our investors hats and see what's in store for some stocks:

Travel and tourist stocks
This is one of the worst hit areas, especially airlines, as people may cancel their travel plans. For example, AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) traded over 9 percent lower an hour after the open. Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE: RCL) was down over 15 percent. In fact UBS downgraded these airlines and hotels this morning: AMR, Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL), Host Hotels and Resorts (NYSE: HST), Lasalle Hotel Properties (NYSE: LHO), Marriott (NYSE: MAR), United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA), US Airways (NYSE: LCC). Carnival Cruise Lines (NYSE: CCL) also declined considerably. Best to stay away from the sector.

Telmex (NYSE: TMX) is expected to report Q1 EPS today. TMX May option implied volatility of 43 is below its 26-week average of 50, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) closed at $10.32. SFD says it found no evidence of swine influenza at its Mexican joint ventures. SFD May option implied volatility of 102 is below its 26-week average of 112, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (NYSE: ARO) reported strong Q4 numbers as same-store sales increased.
• American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) same-store sales fell in Q4 but earnings met expectations.
• ArcSight Inc. (NASDAQ: ARST) continued its growth in Q3 and it forecast continued growth.
• Buckle Inc. (NYSE: BKE) posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit and continued same-store sales growth.
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) CEO said in a memo that it earned a profit in the first two months of this quarter.
• Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (NYSE: DKS) beat Q4 earnings estimates but same-store sales fell.

Analyst upgrades:

• Bernstein upgraded Merck (NYSE: MRK) to Outperform from Market Perform and raised its target to $30 from $27 citing valuation and its decision to buy Schering-Plough, at what appears to be a reasonable price.
  
• RBC Capital upgraded Palm (NASDAQ: PALM) to Outperform from Sector Perform and raised its target to $12 from $5 as it believes webOS has increased its chances for Smartphone leadership and will increase its attractiveness as an acquisition target.
  
• RW Baird upgraded Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Outperform from Neutral on valuation as it believes balance sheet risks are overly discounted in the stock, creating a buying opportunity. The firm has a $3 target on shares.
• Express Scripts (NASDAQ: ESRX) was raised to Buy from Hold at Argus.
  
• France Telecom (NYSE: FTE) was upgraded at Morgan Stanley to Equal Weight from Underweight.
  
• Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) was upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman.

Analyst upgrades:

• UBS upgraded Dollar Tree (NASDAQ: DLTR) to Buy from Neutral but lowered its target to $42 from $45 following the solid Q4 report. The firm expects Dollar Tree's cost containment to continue. JP Morgan upgraded shares to Overweight from Neutral on valuation as it believes the recent pullback is overdone and the company set achievable FY09 guidance. The firm has a $43 target on the stock.
  
• JP Morgan also upgraded Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation as they find the stock oversold at current levels.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Nordson (NASDAQ: NDSN) to Hold from Underweight based on valuation, strong balance sheet and cost reductions, and a solid track record of execution.
• Philips Electronics (NYSE: PHG) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at HSBC.
  
• Aeropostale (NYSE: ARO) was raised to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays.
  
• Carter's (NYSE: CRI) was upgraded at Goldman to Neutral from Sell.

In the News:
How Much Will You Get From Stimulus Package?
Find out how much you'll benefit from the government's big plan. Most workers will end up with an extra $8 a week. But the $787 billion economic stimulus package, which President Obama is expected to sign Tuesday, contains numerous provisions that could save you much more than that, depending on your circumstances. Here's a closer look at who stands to gain from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/perfi/columnist/block/2009-02-16-stimulus-home-car-buyers_N.htm
and http://www.smartmoney.com/Spending/Deals/What-Does-the-Stimulus-Mean-for-You/

Last week, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), one of Canada's oldest and largest banks, reported growth in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. But it may be the only one that does, as at least two of the Canadian banks scheduled to report fourth-quarter numbers this week have already released preliminary results that warn of lower earnings due to debt write-downs and trading losses.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) to post earnings 42.6% lower than a year ago, or $1.28 per share. CIBC beat estimates by a penny in the third quarter, but missed by a penny in the period before that. The bank faces a class-action lawsuit related to investments in collateralized debt obligations consisting of U.S. subprime mortgages. Shares have climbed 20.7% from a recent 52-week low of $39.52, but are down 37.8% in the past three months.

Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) are expected to report more modest earnings declines of $1.01 per share, $0.73 per share, and $0.83 per share, respectively. All three Toronto-based banks topped estimates in the third quarter. Toronto Dominion and RBC have recently announced plans to offer shares in order to raise capital. Toronto Dominion and Scotiabank have been trading near 52-week lows, and their share prices are down around 39% in the past three months. But only Toronto Dominion has a consensus buy recommendation from analysts.

Hormel Foods (NYSE: HRL) closed at $28.44 Tuesday. HRL is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 25. HRL overall option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 30 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Sanderson Farms (NYSE: SAFM) closed at $27.49 Tuesday. SAFM filed a $1 billion shelf registration for common and preferred shares on October 9 on the anticipation of using the proceeds to fund acquisitions. SAFM November option implied volatility of 91 is above its 26-week average of 58 according Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE: PPC), the largest chicken company in the U.S., closed at $1.40 Tuesday. PPC announced on October 27 lenders have agreed to provide continued liquidity under credit facilities. PPC December option implied volatility is at 239 according to Track Data, suggesting large price fluctuations.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD), a processor of packaged meats, closed at $9.49 Tuesday. SFD November option implied volatility of 166 is above its 26-week average of 88 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Tyson (NYSE: TSN) closed $8.05 Tuesday. TSN is scheduled to report Q4 EPS on November 11. TSN November option implied volatility is at 133, December is at 124; above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) Q2 profits topped expectations, but it warned of weak sales in the second half.
• China Petroleum and Chemical Corp. (NYSE: SNP) first-half profits tanked due to government price controls.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL ) fell short of Q2 earnings estimates, surprising even Jim Cramer.
• Dillard's Inc. (NYSE: DDS) beat analysts' expectations despite widening its Q2 net loss.
• Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd. (NASDAQ: GILT) missed Q2 expectations and a merger fell through.
• J. Crew Group Inc. (NYSE: JCG) Q2 net income slipped on lower sales and gross margins.
• JP Morgan & Chase Co. (NYSE: JPM) earnings have been hurt by investments in Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.
• LDK Solar Co. (NYSE: LDK) raised its 2009 revenue guidance on reaching peak silicon wafer capacity.
• Marvell Technology Group (NASDAQ: MRVL) beat Q2 expectations but gave a conservative Q3 outlook.
• Rio Tinto Group (NYSE: RTP) first-half profits more than doubled on its acquisition of Alcan.
• Sanderson Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFM) swung to a Q3 loss due in part to rising commodities prices.
• Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) Q2 earnings plunged more than expected on further sluggish sales.
• SkillSoft PLC (NASDAQ: SKIL) beat Q2 expectations and offered Q3 and full-year guidance.
• Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD) swung to a Q1 loss due in part to rising commodities prices.
• Talbots Inc. (NYSE: TLB) nearly doubled its Q2 loss due to lower sales and restructuring charges.
• Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE: TMA) posted a Q2 profit but warned of possible collapse on margin calls.
• Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) doubled its Q2 profit on strong international sales, and raised its guidance.
• TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) unexpectedly swung to a Q2 profit but forcast another loss in Q3.

Upcoming quarterly reports include Guess (NYSE: GES), Collective Brands (NYSE: PSS), H&R Block, (NYSE: HRB), Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), Ciena (NASDAQ: CIEN), Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL); and National Semiconductor (NASDAQ: NSM).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Rising commodities prices led both Smithfield Foods Inc. (NYSE: SFD), the nation's largest pork producer and processor, and poultry producer Sanderson Farms Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFM) to report quarterly losses on Tuesday.

Smithfield Foods said it lost $12.6 million, or 9 cents per share, in its fiscal first quarter due in part to a $20.1 million write-down in the value of commodity contracts. The Smithfield, Va.-based company had reported a profit of $54.6 million, or 41 cents per share, a year ago.

Revenues rose 20% to $3.14 billion in the quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had forecast a loss of 4 cents per share on $2.87 billion in sales.

In addition to hurting from high costs for such ingredients as grain and fuel, Smithfield also faces an oversupply of meat on the market, which is keeping prices for pork lower. To help push prices up, meat producers such as Smithfield have announced intentions to cut supply.

Shares of Smithfield fell 88 cents, or 3.7%, to $22.71 in morning trading. That's up from a 52-week low of $16.61 in early July, but shares have fallen about 21% since the beginning of the year.

Bob Evans Farms (NASDAQ: BOBE) owns and operates full-service restaurants, under the Bob Evans and Mimi's Cafe brand names. The Bob Evans chain consists of 571 stores in the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions of the United States. Mimi's Cafe runs 132 restaurants, primarily in California and other western states. The company is also a leading producer of pork sausage and complementary homestyle convenience foods, under the Bob Evans and Owens brand names. Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) is a competitor.

The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported solid Q4 results and issued in-line guidance for its FY09 performance. The CEO attributed success to cost management on the restaurant side and better-than-expected numbers from the food products business. The shares were subsequently upgraded from "neutral" to "buy" at MKM Partners.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) beat Q1 expectations and offered Q2 and full-year earnings guidance.
• Brown-Forman Corp. (NYSE: BF.B) beat Q4 estimates on demand for Jack Daniels and Finlandia vodka.
• Collective Brands Inc. (NYSE: PSS) reported strong Q1 results despite a litigation charge.
• Del Monte Foods Co. (NYSE: DLM) Q4 earnings surged 37% but fell short of analysts' estimates.
• Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) beat Q1 earnings expectations and offered Q2 and full-year guidance.
• Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc. (NYSE: DPS) Q1 earnings surged 38% but fell short of expectations.
• Guess Inc. (NYSE: GES) reported strong Q1 results on strength in Europe and Asia.
• National Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: NSM) posted better-than-expected Q4 results.
• Nucor Corp. (NYSE: NUE) raised its earnings outlook for the coming Q2 report, sending shares higher.
• SeaChange International Inc. (NASDAQ: SEAC) reported better-than-expected Q1 results.
• Smithfield Foods Corp. (NYSE: SFD) Q1 profits fell 94% on rising grain costs and falling hog prices.
• Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) reported a smaller-than-expected Q2 loss, lifting shares.
• Wimm-Bill-Dann Foods (NYSE: WBD) reported strong Q1 results that beat Wall Street expectations.

See also: Earnings highlights: Wal-Mart, Lehman Bros., Take-Two, Ciena, Trina Solar and others

Also, continued real estate losses are expected to hurt the quarterly reports of banks such as like Wachovia (NYSE: WB), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and National City (NYSE: NCC). And Steven Mallas wonders why Playboy (NYSE: PLA) shares have tanked since its last earnings report.

Upcoming results to watch for include Krispy Kreme (NYSE: KKD), Pall Corp. (NYSE: PLL), Pep Boys (NYSE: PBY), Korn Ferry (NYSE: KFY), and Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

Smithfield Foods (NYSE: SFD) shares are falling after the company reported adjusted fourth-quarter profit of $2.4 million, or 1 cent per share, below analysts' expectations of 7 cents per share. Losses in the hog unit, blamed on high feed costs contributed to the big drop in earnings. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on SFD.

After hitting a one-year high of $35.79 in July, the stock hit a one-year low of $23.75 in January. This morning, SFD opened at $29.10. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.22 and a high of $29.35. As of 12:15, SFD is trading at $28.76, down 1.37 (-4.5%). The chart for SFD looks bullish and steady before today's drop, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $35 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in four and a half months as long as SFD is below $35 at October expiration. Smithfield would have to rise by more than 23% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

SFD hasn't been above $35 for more than a few days in the past year and has shown resistance around $32 recently. This trade could be risky if the cost of feed grains relax in the coming months, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance SFD might have around $32, where it topped out last month.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in SFD.

Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report quarterly results in the first week of June, 2008.

The following companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:

• Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) up 136.6% (from a loss) to $1.12 per share, on $499.1 million in revenue
• Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ: LULU) up 58.3% to 12 cents per share, on $71.8 million in revenue
• Vimpelcom Communications (NYSE: VIP) up 54.2% to 59 cents per share, on $2.1 billion in revenue
• Focus Media Ltd. (NASDAQ: FMCN) up 36.4% to 33 cents per share, on $161.3 million in revenue
• Ciena Corp. (NASDAQ: CIEN) up 29.7% to 37 cents per share, on $238.4 million in revenue
• Greif Inc. (NYSE: GEF) up 24.1% to 87 cents per share, on $839.9 million in revenue
• Vail Resorts Inc. (NYSE: MTN) up 18.4% to $2.44 per share, on $474.8 million in revenue
• Guess? Inc. (NYSE: GES) up 17.4% to 46 cents per share, on $451.6 million in revenue
• Del Monte Foods Co. (NYSE: DLM) up 15.4% to 26 cents per share, on $1.0 billion in revenue
• Cooper Companies Inc. (NYSE: COO) up 14.6% to 48 cents per share, on $256.7 million in revenue
• Jackson Hewitt Tax Service Inc. (NYSE: JTX) up 1.9% to $2.08 per share, on $161.6 million in revenue