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Five blue-chip stocks with revolutionary new products

Normally we think of revolutionary products created by start-ups or entrepreneurial minds just out of college, but the most talked about new projects of 2009 are being produced by some of the best known companies in the world.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN): With its massive online presence and a truly efficient business model, Amazon has become the largest online retailer in the world. It is now taking on a new business, web services, namely cloud computing (learn more HERE), called the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud (EC2). While hosting this infrastructure and presenting e-commerce with a reasonably affordable alternative with no up-front costs, Amazon has taken an early lead in this space, with some believing its cloud computing business will one day overtake retailing. "Amazon will be like a book store that sells cocaine out the back door. Books will be just a front to sell storage and cloud computing." says Larry Dignan, Editor in Chief of ZDNet and Editorial Director of ZDNet sister site TechRepublic.

Continue reading Five blue-chip stocks with revolutionary new products

Research In Motion: Business poetry in motion

Readers of this space know that the investment bias is toward large-cap companies with demonstrated business models and who have a competitive advantage in established markets, preferably with a favorable, global trend as a support. However, every once in a while, and exception is made, and Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is one.

In general, analysts see a 20-35% increase in FY 2010 revenue, driven primarily by, of course, RIMM's wildly popular wireless smartphone, the BlackBerry, which supports global mobile voice and e-mail.

Continue reading Research In Motion: Business poetry in motion

Doomsday Scenario: Rotten Apple, hedge fund lies, bad case of natural gas

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is a company with $31 per share in cash on hand that just can't get a break. Analysts have begun downgrading the stock on fears that sales of Macs and iPhones will slow. As Apple hadn't been beaten down enough, shares dove today. Sentiment on Apple is rapidly deteriorating.

Meanwhile, Hedge Fund Research, a company that tracks hedge fund returns, released its February stats for how the hedgies performed. According to HFR, the hedgies beat the market soundly, losing only 0.5% in the month.

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: Rotten Apple, hedge fund lies, bad case of natural gas

Motorola seeks new ringtone

The once proud Schaumburg, Illinois-based Motorola (NYSE: MOT) has never fully recovered from the collapse of the technology sector in 2000. From its peak of over $57 in February 2000, MOT lost 75% of its market cap the next 12 months and surrendered another 50% over the following two years.

The stock is currently trading at $3.90 after reaching a low for the last 52 weeks of $3. The stock traded at the high for the period in mid-November, reaching $12.59.

Continue reading Motorola seeks new ringtone

Earnings preview: Can Motorola (MOT) break even?

Before the market opens tomorrow, mobile device maker Motorola (NYSE: MOT) is going to be announcing its fourth quarter numbers, and analysts are expecting to see a break even quarter from the struggling company.

Despite being one of the best known makers of cell phones, Motorola has had a tough couple of years, and has been losing its market share at an alarming rate. In 2007, the company remained the number two maker of cell phones, but 2008 was tough on the company, which now finds itself down in fifth place in market share.

Continue reading Earnings preview: Can Motorola (MOT) break even?

BlackBerry Storm vs. Apple iPhone

A recent ChangeWave smartphone survey of 3,800 cell phone owners measured customer reaction to Research In Motion's (NASDAQ: RIMM) newest touch-screen phone, the BlackBerry Storm.

The survey was conducted just weeks after the Storm went on sale.

We also compared the Storm's favorability rating to those of the original Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone, taken from a 2007 ChangeWave survey conducted a few weeks after the iPhone's release.

The original iPhone's "very satisfied" rating (77%) was more than double that of the Storm (33%).

Moreover, the original iPhone's unsatisfied rating (5%) was three times lower than that of the Storm (14%).

Continue reading BlackBerry Storm vs. Apple iPhone

Apple's iPhone to see Google's mobile-specific AdWords soon

Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is starting to place its advertising all over its web-based products as it tries desperately to gain ad revenue outside of its web search results.

In what has been a long time coming, the world leader in internet search will now be tailoring ads for its search product specifically for smaller screens like those on the Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and the Google-powered G1 smartphone, offered by T-Mobile.

This makes sense. A web search performed on a standard web browser brings up text ads that bring in billions of revenue for Google every quarter. On smartphones with full web browsers but with a lack of screen real estate, these ads work but are sub-optimal. If Google can get this right and make text ads next to search results look like they belong on small-screen web browser, it will have significantly upped its ante.

Will customers click (with their fingers, no less) on mobile ads set next to mobile search results on these full-featured phones? The law of averages suggests they will, most likely. As iPhones sell in more volume and smartphones eventually become the mobile device of choice, mobile advertising will become a decent income stream for Google and other mobile ad networks.

At least, that is Google's dream. So far, mobile ads are miniscule in income generation compared to standard web search income generation -- even with many more phones in use than computers with standard web browsers.

iPhone premium comes out of Apple stock

It wasn't that long ago that Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) changed the way we think about phones. The exact date that Apple's CEO, Steve Jobs, unleashed the sleek design on the world was January 9, 2007. Since that day, Apple stock has been on a tear, and has not closed under $85. That is, until yesterday when the stock finished the day at $80.49, as the stock has now lost all of its "iPhone premium."

In all fairness, the recent drop in stock price can be attributed more to the overall market meltdown than Apple weakness. The company last reported earnings on the 21st of October, and blew away analyst expectations by posting earnings per share of $1.26, versus estimates of only $1.11.

As for iPhone sales, sales so far have been great for the company, despite the fact that almost all of its rivals have been moving as quickly as possible to imitate the iPhone. The company stated that it had sold 6.9 million phones during last quarter, which was the first full quarter featuring the new 3G model. Based on that number, the company sold more iPhones last quarter than they had sold all together leading up to last quarter ... pretty amazing.

Continue reading iPhone premium comes out of Apple stock

Research in Motion (RIMM): Smart buy in smartphones

"If you can tolerate the volatility, it's a good idea to begin dipping back in to the stock market, in solid companies with strong cash balances, little debt and great prospects," says wireless sector expert Nikhil Hutheesing.

In The Forbes Wireless Stock Watch, the advisor asks, ""In the long run, smart investments today will lead to profits down the road. One of those companies, that I now think looks attractive, is the Canadian maker of the BlackBerry - Research in Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM)."

"The Canadian company introduced the BlackBerry in 1999 and it quickly became a must-have way for employees oflarge companies to communicate through email and voice wirelessly. In its fiscal 2008 (which ended in February) the company sold nearly 14 million devices (more than double the year before).

"Recently, though, the financial crisis has dealt a strong blow to the company. Investors doubt whether RIMM can repeat the 90% growth in revenues that it achieved in fiscal 2008.

"Not only is the slowing economy a threat to growth but so is increased competition. Apple's iPhone, for example, has been a hit among consumers and now the company is pushing into the corporate market, trying to erode Research In Motion's market share.

Continue reading Research in Motion (RIMM): Smart buy in smartphones

Are cell phones over?

My husband lost his phone months ago, and then left the charger for my Blackberry in an Oklahoma City hotel six weeks ago, and as we don't drive, the car charger isn't much use. Other than a few scattered charges while in my sister's or a friend's car, we've been without a cell phone entirely.

Surprisingly, we've barely missed it. With his occasional work in the Army Reserves, and my freelance writing that isn't exactly the stuff of emergency phone calls, no one is asking us for instant availability. We're wondering if we really need our cell phones any more, and I'm hoping to let our contracts expire next fall. We may not be alone.

Nokia today forecast global industry mobile phone sales to be 1.5% less than previously expected. Apple may be reducing its production of iPhones. You have to wonder, in an economy in which free and easy credit is fast disappearing (and, along with it, free and easy disposable "income" to spend on toys) -- and one in which, shortly, consumers may start paying closer attention to monthly bills before they enter blindly into two-year contracts worth thousands for a shiny new toy -- could the cell phone as we know it be over?

Both of my babysitters, my in-laws who barely make a living wage working in restaurants, and most of the unemployed people I know have fancy phones with cameras, bells and whistles. I hardly believe this pace of consumerism is sustainable. There can't possible be untrammeled growth in an industry that forecasts to put new phones in one-fifth of the world's population next year. Seriously?

I predict that Peak Cell Phone has been reached, and in the next five years we'll see a serious decline in new phone sales as consumers realize that there are things more important in life than being able to text your friends. And with a reduction in credit, those things are harder and harder to afford. The cell phone, as we know it, may just be on its way out.

Apple moves into number 2 slot for smartphones

Some great news for Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) revolutionary iPhone today, as a new study shows that for the first time ever, Apple has moved ahead of competitor Research in Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM) for second place in overall smartphone market share.

Top slot remains firmly in the hands of Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: NOK), but the current data may start to give the perennial champion some reason for concern. While its current lead in market share domination remains well above its next closest competitor, but the figures are much closer than what they were this time last year, another indication of just how popular the iPhone has become over the past year.

Last year at this time, Nokia had a very tight grip on the market, with a reported 51.4% control of the market. It's next closest competitor was Research in Motion, which had 10.6% market share.

Continue reading Apple moves into number 2 slot for smartphones

Nokia hit with price-target cuts, slammed by RIM's weakness

Forget finance -- it's a rough day to be a handset maker. Following a widely panned earnings report from Research In Motion Limited (NASDAQ: RIMM), Finnish firm Nokia Corp. (NYSE: NOK) was slapped with price-target cuts from JP Morgan and ING. What's more, Dresdner Kleinwort warned that RIM's weak gross-margin guidance will most likely be echoed by Nokia.

Digging into the various reports, JP Morgan and ING both slashed their price target on Nokia from 11 euros to 10 euros per share. JP Morgan reiterated its "underweight" rating, and said it still thinks Nokia can increase its market share -- just not as much as the company might have hoped. The brokerage firm also sees replacement cycles growing by 6.5 months in 2009.

Meanwhile, Dresdner Kleinwort backed its 'hold" rating and its 15-euro target price, but warned that gross margins across the sector will remain under pressure through 2010.

The barrage of bearish brokerage notes -- along with RIM's disappointing turn in the earnings spotlight -- has NOK more than 4% lower at midday. Today's plunge likely came as a disappointment to enthusiastic option players; yesterday, traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) bought to open 25,322 calls on NOK, compared to just 346 puts.

Continue reading Nokia hit with price-target cuts, slammed by RIM's weakness

Google's Android phone to sell for $199, just like the iPhone

When Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC announced that T-Mobile USA would be the first wireless company to carry a wireless smartphone running Google's hyped Android operating system, those who have refused the iPhone and were fervent Google supporters finally had a reason to cheer. There have been several unknowns, with the most important one being a launch price.

This may have just been cleared up. CrunchGear is reporting that the HTC/Google "Dream" Android-based smartphone will sell for $200 when released on T-Mobile USA sometime in October, or more precisely for $199 as the WSJ reports today. This is identical to the pricing of the iPhone 3G on AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T), so if there are any doubts Google and T-Mobile are squaring up to compete head-to-head with Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and AT&T, those have been nicely squashed.

Sprint Nextel Corp.'s (NYSE: S) first attempt to compete with a unit very much like the iPhone was the Samsung Instinct. That particular phone, which was released in June, has quickly become Sprint's best cellphone seller in over two years. Can the HTC Dream Android-powered phone give T-Mobile USA a lift like this? Both Google and T-Mobile USA hope so, although Apple iPhone 3G sales certainly are not slowing down. But there are folks who will never want to be involved with AT&T at all (even with the iPhone 3G exclusivity), so having choices outside the Apple/AT&T world could spell immediate success continuation for Sprint Nextel and soon for T-Mobile USA.

Yahoo continues mobile push

Minyanville contributor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

AT&T (NYSE: T) became the first US carrier to make Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) the default search engine on its cell phones. Default search engines on traditional web portals probably don't carry as much weight as in the past. However, being selected the default for cellular searches is stickier due to the design of many devices. Moreover, YHOO will be providing the tag along ads that appear in conjunction with these searches.

Tech is lagging this morning as the finance stocks experience the biggest lift from the Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM)/Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) news. Meanwhile, YHOO is flat and on a day like today as a story like this won't carry much weight, but over time, the fact that YHOO is making significant deals in wireless search strengthens the long term valuation case. I suspect the shares of YHOO will lag the broader market until we get renewed take-out chatter or we see better action from other technology leaders.

Meanwhile, one of my newer favorite Naz names is simply the Nasdaq (Nasdaq: NDAQ) itself. NDAQ has traded terribly the last few months with the decline in its own index. However, volumes and business fundamentals are quite strong a the poor market doesn't necessarily mean that the NDAQ itself is weakening. In fact I would say their market share and overall strategy has strengthened over the last year or more.

Are you in love with Apple?

It has become apparent to my colleagues and I that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is perhaps the most popular company to write about and should you have the slightest question about its products, service, or stock price you are bound to get a few flaming comments from the Apple faithful.

The stock is slightly up from last month when I posted Chasing Value: Apple -- two rights and one wrong closing at $160.18 Friday.

However, this is down about 20% from its high of $202.96, so it is under performing the market by about 5%. No big deal for a stock with a beta of 2.36. Actually, a few of the faithful probably made some good money buying when Apple was down earlier in the year, under $120.

This is one company that people are in love with and that is where some caution is warranted. Just like you might overlook a friend or loved ones idiosyncrasies you might have a tendency to do the same with this stock. Discipline (and perhaps some luck) is required by successful investors and the feedback we get is that some Apple investors have been blinded by the light.

There will come a day when the blockbuster products and features disappoint.

Apple's forward looking P/E of 28 has come down some with the stock price as earnings growth continues, even if Apple says that might slow too. On that I say -- who knows? It has been accused of downplaying its future earnings just to have us marvel at the upside after reporting. We shall have to wait and see.

It has been about six weeks since the 3G iPhone found its way into my 15-year-old's growing hands and he loves it (but owns no stock). All of the features advertised have met his expectations, but, and it is a big but, the battery charge does not last very long unless you consciously conserve by using less of the features.

Perhaps someone can enlighten me and other readers as to why Apple cannot make a removable battery that users can replace themselves. Apple would make more money by selling back-ups that iPhone owners could swap out themselves extending the usefullness of the phone. I carry an extra battery for my phone. If Apple did this I think even a few more people would use it for business.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I do not own shares of AAPL.

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Last updated: July 03, 2009: 07:23 PM

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