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America Movil: Time to Take Some Profits?

The stock chart of Latin American wireless provider America Movil SAB de CV (AMX), first discussed here on June 24, 2009 at a price of $36.47, appears to have formed a double-top near $60 -- a bearish pattern -- hence those in at/near $36 may wish to consider taking some profits.

However, other investors who can tolerate the risk can maintain their full position in AMX, as longer-term, two to three years out, as new business titan America Movil has a bright future.

In 2011, AMX will likely post 20-25% revenue growth in 2011, following a fantastic 31% surge in 2010. Improving performance in two, key markets -- Brazil and Mexico -- will continue to support revenue growth in 2011. Subscriber growth should remain in the strong 6-8% range, in 2011, with margins dipping slightly, on intensifying competition.

Continue reading America Movil: Time to Take Some Profits?

Chasing Value: Time to Sell E*Trade?

E*Trade (ETFC) logoTwo weeks ago I decided to sell my shares of E*Trade (ETFC) after concluding it did not fit my investment criteria. It was one of my successful picks for 2010 and I made money having sold puts establishing a base price of $13.50. It closed Friday February 25 at $15.89.

I might not have chosen to post about this except for news that Ken Griffin's hedge fund Citadel Investment Group plans to sell much of its stake in E*Trade Financial. The largest shareholder selling out is news. Citadel will still hold valuable warrants, giving it the option of taking a very large position again, but for now there seems to be a change of heart for them as well.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Time to Sell E*Trade?

Short City Update: McGraw-Hill

Diversified publisher McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP), first discussed here on December 8, 2010 at a price of $36, remains a short play with potential.

McGraw will likely to face a challenging 2011. McGraw-Hill's education segment will face an increasing sluggish textbook market, as public school systems -- particularly those in poorer U.S. school districts K-12 -- continue to belt-tighten in every way possible, due to state and local budget cutbacks. Translation: use existing textbooks longer, and increase use of the used-book market.

Continue reading Short City Update: McGraw-Hill

David Fried's Buyback Premium Portfolio: Mid-Month Update

Our recommendations center on a collection of five stocks that we believe, as a group, will outperform the market this month. The Buyback Premium Portfolio is beating the S&P 500 by more than 65% since its inception (August 2, 2000)! This portfolio is up 54.48% since inception (August 2, 2000) vs. a decline of 10.56% in the S&P 500 over the same time frame. We hope that you are participating in these profits. For the month of January 2011, The Buyback Premium Portfolio gained 1.18% vs. a gain of 2.27% in the S&P 500.

Continue reading David Fried's Buyback Premium Portfolio: Mid-Month Update

Commodity 'Boom' Boosts Rio Tinto (RIO)

Rio Tinto logo"London-based Rio Tinto (RIO) is one of the largest and most diversified mining companies in the world; ith the potential to reward shareholders with increased dividends and share buybacks, Rio is a buy for investors seeking exposure to booming commodity markets," says Paul Tracy.

The editor of High Yield International explains, "Rio's operations are located in Australia, North and South America, South Africa, Europe and Indonesia. Its strategy is to concentrate on the development of large, high quality mineral deposits and become a low-cost producer for each commodity.

Continue reading Commodity 'Boom' Boosts Rio Tinto (RIO)

Has America Movil Formed a Double-Top Near $60?

The stock chart of Latin American wireless provider America Movil SAB de CV (AMX), first discussed here on June 24, 2009 at a price of $36.47, appears to has formed a double-top near $60 -- a bearish patter -- hence those in at/near $36 may wish to consider taking some profits.

Longer-term, America Movil remains a new business titan with a bright future. In 2011, AMX will likely post 20-25% revenue growth in 2011, following a likely 30% rise in 2010. Improving performance in two, key markets -- Brazil and Mexico -- continue to support revenue growth. Subscriber growth should remain in the strong 6-8% range in 2011, with margins dipping slightly.

Continue reading Has America Movil Formed a Double-Top Near $60?

Serious Money: Netflix and Tulips

The Tulip mania in Holland went on for seven years, supporting John Maynard Keynes commentary that "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." This is one of my favorite stock market quotes, so forgive me if I repeat it too often. Although, I'm not sure that is possible when I watch Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) stock price continue to soar.

The stock was up almost 5% yesterday, on a down day, closing at $187.88, with a P/E of 70.90 -- that's 71 years times earnings folks!

Is that sensible? Investors are saying who cares? And the analysts are supporting them. The fact that analysts have a horrible track record and that the stock is highly speculative has become irrelevant.

Continue reading Serious Money: Netflix and Tulips

Comfort Zone Investing: When Stocks Wave Red Flags

Comfort Zone InvestingInvestors spend most of their time looking for a great stock, anxious to buy one before others discover what they have. But equally important is knowing when to sell or when not to buy a stock. Here are a few red flags that stocks wave, no matter how good their numbers.

Dividends Are Very High. Stocks paying a dividend are a smart part of any portfolio. But when those dividends are much higher than average payments from companies in their industry, that's a problem waiting to happen. For example, if the average payment from the utility sector is 4% and the one you own is paying 10%, most likely the company's in trouble. Investors are selling the stock for a reason, making the dividend go ever higher (yield is: annual dividend/price ... the lower the price, the higher the yield). Sometimes the reasons for selling aren't known but become apparent after the quarterly earnings report. Or an announcement is made such as losing a contract that explains the downward pressure.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: When Stocks Wave Red Flags

Short City: McGraw-Hill

McGraw-Hill logoDiversified publisher McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. (MHP) is likely to face a challenging 2011.

McGraw-Hill's education segment will face an increasing sluggish textbook market, as public school systems -- particularly those in poorer U.S. school districts, K-12 -- continue to belt-tighten in every way possible, due to state and local budget cutbacks. Translation: use existing textbooks longer, and increase use of the used-book market.

Continue reading Short City: McGraw-Hill

How to Avoid Striking Out in This Market

Daily market news shows stocks pulled back on Thursday, as 50 state attorneys general are looking into allegations that thousands of home foreclosures were improperly handled. Financials were hard hit with both big banks and regionals falling on the news.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) fell 2.6%, Bank of America Corp. (BAC) was off 5.2%, and Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) fell 4.2%. Regional banks like BB&T Corp. (BBT) and SunTrust Banks Inc. (STI) fell 2.14% and 4.23%, respectively.

Continue reading How to Avoid Striking Out in This Market

Three Crude Oil Blue Chips to Sell

Stocks to sell that spring to mind right now are probably not in the energy sector. Crude oil prices are up 16% in six weeks. Dividend investors continue to seek out low-risk, high-yield stock picks. So you would think that the major crude oil and energy stocks are good buys right?

Wrong. The fact of the matter is that as we enter another earnings season, the numbers just aren't there for many crude oil blue chips. Even with oil prices improving right now, the ship has sailed on Q3 and those profits are all over but the counting. And as many investors will see soon, those profits may not be as healthy as many crude oil stocks would like.

Continue reading Three Crude Oil Blue Chips to Sell

Is the Selling Over with URS Corp?

Talk about disappointing seasons. The shares of professional engineering/construction services provider URS Corp. (URS), first discussed on June 5, 2009 at a price of $51.56, swooned this summer, hitting a low of about $35.

If you managed to survive the plunge, there is modest good news: shares have rebounded, but by no means has URS registered a trend reversal yet of its bear-hug pattern.

One culprit in URS's plunge is the company's likely, modest, 2-3% revenue increase in 2010. Longer term, both federal government-related and private sector (industrial and commercial) work should gradually improve in 2011, but it appears a portion of institutional investor community weren't willing to wait that long, and exited their positions.

Continue reading Is the Selling Over with URS Corp?

Short City: Whole Foods

Natural/organic grocery store chain Whole Foods Market (WFMI) is now a short candidate, but for high-risk investors, only.

The calculation here is that Whole Food's fiscal 2011 revenue increase will lag the 10-12% consensus, as an increasing number of suddenly-just-modest-income Americans shun the chain.

Also, look for local/regional natural/organic stores to continue to nip-away at Whole Foods Market share. In addition, Whole Foods' stores are increasingly taking on the feel of -- you guessed it -- just another grocery store chain, only with organic and natural foods and prices that are too high.

Continue reading Short City: Whole Foods

Option Traders Buying IEF Calls and Scotts Miracle-Gro Puts

Option traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on iShares Barclays 7 to 10 Year Treasury (IEF). Traders plowed into 4,342 new call option contracts -- 3.33 times the average volume -- on the stock on Wednesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 99% of the trades came in on the ask price.

It looks like traders are trying to get into these Treasuries ahead of the Fed, just in case it moves ahead with more quantitative easing. The ETF closed Wednesday at $97.39, down 0.17% during the past month.

Continue reading Option Traders Buying IEF Calls and Scotts Miracle-Gro Puts

Patterson-UTI Calls and iShares Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Puts Heating Up

Option traders appear to be setting up for a bullish move on Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. (PTEN). Traders plowed into 3,378 new call option contracts -- 10.21 times the average volume -- on the stock on Tuesday. And we know that traders were eager to get into this trade because 94% of the trades came in on the ask price.

Patterson-UTI faces resistance just below $17. The stock closed Tuesday at $16.19, up 9.42% during the past month.

Option traders also look like they are preparing for a bearish move on iShares iBoxx $ Invest Grade Corp Bond (LQD). Traders bought 10,043.00 new put option contracts -- 7.92 times the average volume -- on the stock. A full 100% of these trades also came in on the ask price.

The stock closed Tuesday at $111.52, up 1.09% during the past month.

Continue reading Patterson-UTI Calls and iShares Investment-Grade Corporate Bond Puts Heating Up

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+8.6015,303.10
NASDAQ-0.283,459.14
S&P 500-0.911,649.60

Last updated: May 24, 2013: 06:58 PM

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