This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective.
I thought I would take a moment to shout out to any moderates in the audience and say that I too have worried that some of my colleagues may have sacrificed their reputations for objectivity by writing some posts that could be viewed as borderline paid political announcements. Some readers have quipped that this should be included in the disclosure. However, on the occasion that this is true, it is usually so blatant that I would characterize such disclosure as redundant.
Several of my posts contain political commentary but I think our posts should be about investing, not swaying voter opinion. I especially avoid one-sided rationalizations that appear to have a specific agenda -- although I readily admit that on occasion the dividing line may be very fine indeed.
I still have not made up my mind about the upcoming election because I find some merit in the positions of each candidate. But to me the real question on our site remains: where do you put your money in the case of either candidate's success?
After hitting a one-year high of $90.00 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $28.19 in March. STP opened this morning at $42.01. So far today the stock has hit a low of $41.12 and a high of $42.69. As of 12:35, STP is trading at $41.85, up 0.54 (1.3%). The chart for GIS looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $30 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.5% return in just two months as long as STP is above $30 at August expiration. STP would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
STP hasn't been below $30 since March and has shown support around $38 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in early August) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find between $35 and $40, where it bounced over the past month.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in STP.
Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he answers a reader's burning question about "green" stocks. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
Professor Udall,
Do you have any opinions on Zoltek Companies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ZOLT)? My wife wants me to buy everything "green". Her last "green" company idea was General Electric (NYSE: GE). I know, right? I bought a little just to quiet the noise level. I'm into a little SunPower(NASDAQ: SPWR) and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR). Does Zoltek have legs?
Thanks,
Minyan L.
Minyan L.,
First, that's hysterical. Second, a word of caution: Going all green, or all of any one thing, is something I'd never advocate. If you do, you do so at your own risk, as nothing in the market is ever as obvious as it seems, especially when it seems totally obvious.
For the first time Monday I heard John McCain comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter. I had heard this before in other arenas, but not from McCain. I guess that despite these two presidential candidates pledging to the American people to bring change and resist politics as usual, they are both, as usual as one could get.
Obama is being shaped by the pressures of running for office and to believe otherwise is delusional. I suppose one has to have hope but the effects of the campaign are becoming clear. Obama has been painting McCain as an extension of Bush, which is nonsense, and now in a typical tit-for-tat response, McCain is filling the air with Carter references.
Both McCain and Obama are wrong in their assessments of their opponents and they are becoming commoners to resort to the bottom of the barrel campaign techniques used in every campaign for most of our nation's proud history. Obama gave up the high ground too easily and McCain has decided he can sling mud with the best of them.
Solar energy may be the wave of energy's future, but companies such as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Chevron (NYSE: CVX) may best start-ups in getting to the benefits. A number of large American companies with tremendous balance sheets are pouring money into solar energy based on the fact that it is becoming more competitive with oil.
According toBloomberg, "Costs for the technology will fall below coal as soon as 2020, the U.S. government estimates. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co. invested last year in the biggest solar plant built in a generation; Chevron and Google are funding research; and Goldman Sachs is seeking land to lease as demand out-paces wind turbines and geothermal."
Given the potential size of the bonanza, the investments should not be surprising, but they could squeeze smaller solar energy companies out of the market. Firms like JA Solar (NASDAQ: JASO) and SunTech (NYSE: STP) have their entire futures bet on the success of solar energy and the fact that there are not many companies in the business, at least until now.
It has began to occur to large companies that if fossil fuels will indeed start to run low in two or three decades that the trillions of dollars in market cap currently represented in large oil company stocks will have to go somewhere.
"Oil is setting the stage for a big rally in alternative energy," says Eric Roseman, resources expert and editor of Commodity Trend Alert. Here's a look at two stocks poised to benefit from this trend.
"A surging oil price is extremely bullish for alternative energy. Over the last 12 months, as oil prices have doubled, uranium and solar energy stocks have crashed.
"These sectors have declined because sub-prime has taken everything to the basement until recently - not because solar energy or uranium are flawed investment themes.
"That's why we've recently placed new trades on Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP) and Cameco (NYSE: CCJ). There's no way high oil prices won't encourage more interest in these distressed sectors.
Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP), which saw its stock surge some 150% in 2007, didn't have such a good 2008 so far with its stock plunging about 44% year-to-date. But since setting a 52-week low of $28.19 on March 22, the stock has rebounded nicely, up over 55%. Roller coaster or what?!
Well, today, the maker of photovoltaic cells and modules said first-quarter earnings more than doubled on 76% higher revenue. Earnings reached $55.8 million, or 33 cents an American depositary share, beating analysts estimates of 28 cents. Revenue reached $434.5 million. Gross margins also expanded nicely and Suntech reiterated revenue estimates for 2008.
Early in the morning, STP shares jumped over 7% in premarket trading in response to the report but have not kept this up. Shares are now trading at $45.73, down over 1%, probably declining with the rest of the sector following Goldman Sachs's downgrade of Solarfun (NASDAQ: SOLF) to Sell from Neutral. SOLF shares are down over 18% taking LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK), Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL) and Canadian Solar (NASDAQ: CSIQ) down with it -- 5%, 8% and 13% respectively, to name but a few.
It seems that the BCE (NYSE: BCE) buyout plan, has hit yet another bump on the road, only this one could not be as easy to overcome. A Quebec appeals court reversed a lower court and rejected the $33 billion buyout plan accepting the claim of a group of bondholders that the deal is unfair to them. BCE shares are plunging nearly 15% in premarket trading.
Earnings today are due from Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) -- just after the company said it was interested in buying Borders (NYSE: BGP) -- and Gap (NYSE: GPS) -- a day after the clothing retailer announced an expansion in Russia.
Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) shares are jumping over 7.5% in premarket trading after the solar energy company reported that first-quarter earnings more than doubled on 76% higher revenue. Earnings reached $55.8 million, or 33 cents an American depositary share and revenue reached $434.5. Analysts estimated 28 cents for the quarter.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: StoneMor Partners, Suntech Power and Tesoro were today's noteworthy initiations:
Morgan Keegan initiated StoneMor Partners (NASDAQ: STON) with a Market Perform rating. The firm has a low level of confidence in STON's financial projections given its vulnerability to changes in state and local regulations, and financial reporting complexities.
Jesup & Lamont initiated Suntech Power (NYSE: STP) with a Buy based on the company's leading position in solar PV, industry growth and polysilicon supply agreements in place.
Tesoro (NYSE: TSO) was assumed with an Underweight rating at JP Morgan. The firm expects the West Coast margins to remain weak given the decline in the gasoline demand and capacity increases of the majors.
OTHER INITIATIONS:
RBC Capital initiated Agrium (NYSE: AGU) with an Outperform rating and $115 target.
"Suntech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP), one of our long-time favorites, is now back on our buy list after being driven down in price by U.S. market volatility and the fallout from a recent earnings report," notes Jim Trippon.
The editor of The China Stock Digest explains, The company is world leader in the manufacture of photovoltaic solar cells and solar electric systems. And, it is developing a new technology to increase solar efficiency." Here is his review.
"The company's solar cells are used to supply power to the electricity grid within China, and it's the number one company in the Chinese solar energy industry. The company's systems also provide dependable power internationally for mobile phone networks and telecommunications relay stations and even street lamps in case of power outages.
"Certainly China is in desperate need of clean renewable sources of energy. Residents of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are constantly enveloped in a choking cloud of smog. Beijing has said it wants a tenth of its energy to come from environmentally friendly sources by 2010.
"The problem with solar energy has always been the high cost of manufacturing solar cells relative to the amount of power output per cell. Suntech is attacking that problem with rigorous cost control and the competitive advantages that low cost Chinese manufacturers enjoy in the international arena.
There are many that fear the bear hasn't died. Maybe he's hibernating. But if the bear isn't gone, he's at least lost some teeth. In the last hour of trading today, the DJIA was up more than 900 points from its intraday lows seen just last Monday. Despite weaker home prices trends not seen for 20 years and despite an absolutely dismal ugly Consumer Confidence report, the market managed to do well today despite mixed index averages at the closing bell. There was not a single earnings report that can be used for "the focus" that turned the whole market. It looks like there was actually real buying interest coupled by short covering. Here are the unofficial closing bell index averages for today:
DJIA 12,532.60 (-16.04; -0.13%)
S&P500 1,352.99 (+3.11; +0.23%)
NASDAQ 2,341.05 (+14.30; +0.61%)
10YR-TBond 3.492% (-0.03)
Monsanto (NYSE: MON) rose almost 10% to $114.54 after the agriculture giant raised guidance for both Q2 and for fiscal 2008 based on strong seed sales and all other markets firing on all cylinders.
Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) shares are trading higher today after the company announced it signed an eight-year deal to buy polysilicon from DC Chemical Co. Ltd. Polysilicon is a major ingredient in the manufacturing of solar cells. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months now that it has this price for materials locked in place, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on STP.
After hitting a one-year high of $90.00 in January, the stock hit a one-year low of $28.19 last week. STP opened this morning at $31.79. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.79 and a high of $35.09. As of 12:45, STP is trading at $35.08, up $4.38 (14.3%). The chart for STP looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) Buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade will make a 4.2% return in just one month as long as STP is above $25 at April expiration. Suntech would have to fall by more than 28% before we would start to lose money.
STP hasn't been below $25 at all in the past year and has shown support around $30 recently. This trade could be risky if the demand for energy drops off, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $30. Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in STP.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Suntech Power, Premier Exhibitions and the Homebuilders Sector were today's noteworthy initiations:
Citigroup named Suntech Power Holding (NYSE: STP) their top pick for China solar due to its leading scale and technology roadmap for higher cell efficiency, initiating shares with a Buy rating and $55 target.
Merriman believes Premier Exhibitions (NASDAQ: PRXI) can move to the $14.50-$17.00 through the continued monetization of the company's current tours, the launching of additional tours and the value of the Titanic artifacts on hand. The firm started shares with a Buy rating.
This charming pic-toon of moderation comes from one of my talented long time friends, Ron Overmyer, who has allowed me to share it with our readers. He does a weekly email blast and this is one of his tamer commentaries, one that might give us pause to consider what it means to be objective. 
Minyanville's Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. Here he answers a reader's burning question about "green" stocks. For more original thought, visit 
For the first time Monday I heard John McCain comparing Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter. I had heard this before in other arenas, but not from McCain. I guess that despite these two presidential candidates pledging to the American people to bring change and resist politics as usual, they are both, as usual as one could get.
Solar energy may be the wave of energy's future, but companies such as 
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The week in preview: Chicken soup (or a doughnut) for the recession-weary soul?
Comfort Zone Investing: Oil's down, which is a start, but not good enough
Stocks have their worst week in six years
