As if pouring salt on a wound, Moody's came out today and cut the rating of luxury home builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) to junk status. Their rating was cut to Ba1 from Baa3.
As reported in a Bloomberg report, Moody's said: " While the company is one of the only remaining home builders that is currently generating earnings before impairment charges, Moody's does not expect this to continue, as falling prices and lower absorption rates continue to impact margins."
Toll Brothers CEO Robert Toll has recently told the market that he thinks that real estate is still in a downward spiral. It seems that Moody's agrees. While this all maybe true, for long term investors, shares in Toll Brothers are certainly intriguing under $19. Long term, contrarian inclined investors may want to do a bit of research as the shares maybe approaching levels that are hard to refuse.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/3/08.
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) shares are trading higher after the company reported a second-quarter loss of $93.7 million, or 59 cents per share, handily beating analysts' warnings of a loss of 89 cents per share. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on TOL.
After hitting a one-year high of $29.15 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $15.49 in January. TOL opened this morning at $21.39. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.10 and a high of $21.98. As of 12:30, TOL is trading at $21.77, up $0.81 (3.9%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a bullish 4 Stars (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bull-put credit spread below the $15 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 6.4% return in just three and a half months as long as TOL is above $17.50 at September expiration. Toll Brothers would have to fall by more than 31% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
U.S. stock futures were mixed early Tuesday morning, trading in a narrow range as investors awaited Fed Chairman Bernenake's speech, examined oil prices and reacted to news Lehman Brothers might $4 billion in capital.
After a four-day winning streak, U.S. stocks declined on Monday following renewed concerns about the financial markets following management changes at Wachovia and Washington Mutual, downgrades of several financials and Britain's Bradford & Bingley warning about profits. The Dow industrials dropped 134 points, or 1.06%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 31 points, or 1.23%, and the S&P 500 dropped 14 points, or 1.05%.
While not much is on the economic docket for today other than April factory orders due at 10:00 a.m. EDT, investor will likely be interested in the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona where Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as well as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa are going to speak starting 9:00 a.m. EDT.
5-Star Stocks in Warren Buffett's Portfolio Morningstar examines the most watched portfolio in the world -- Berkshire Hathaway's. Among the five-star stocks in the Oracle of Omaha's portfolio are Amercian Express, CarMax, J&J, Lowe's, UPS, Wellpoint and Kraft Foods. 5-Star Stocks in the Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio - Morningstar Secret Ways to Boost Your Social Security These four strategies can add as much as $12,000 a year to your retirement income. Secret Ways to Boost Your Social Security - Kiplinger.com
Here's a peek at what analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial are expecting from companies scheduled to report quarterly results in the first week of June, 2008.
The following companies are expected to post earnings growth, compared to the same period in the previous year:
Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) up 136.6% (from a loss) to $1.12 per share, on $499.1 million in revenue
How did we get here anyway? Housing and construction companies have been crushed as the bubble burst and now investors have to make a critical decision. Do you stay and hope for a recovery or bag it and move to another position that has the potential to provide better returns?
The problem is simple to explain: Most investors hate taking a loss. In fact, most investors will look to get "even" before they sell and this attitude usually leads to greater losses, anxiety and poor decisions. The truth is that much of this can be avoided with proper risk management techniques. If any of this describes you, then consider developing a plan for risk management and a discipline that will help to protect your hard earned principal. Now, more than ever, investors need a plan. We all need a plan that includes well developed risk management disciplines, which is why I dedicate a full chapter to it in my book, The Disciplined Investor.
Monday, June 2
The week begins with the 10 am release of construction spending and the ISM Index. Construction spending is expected to continue to be weak as is the ISM.
Then we have a few housing-related earnings releases that should be of interest. Watch NCI Building Systems Inc. (NYSE: NCS). This company is engaged in manufacturing and marketing of metal products for the nonresidential construction industry. Terrific! This is a company that is suffering along with the entire construction sector...that is for sure. In fact, they company lowered the outlook for the remainder of the year back in March. It stands to reason that not much is better. The ace in the hole is the recent trend of lowering expectations and then coming out with an earnings beat. Even so, this has too much potential for problems and the sideline is a good vantage point to watch the earnings announcement, which is expected to come in with a PROFIT of 31 cents per share on $365 million of revenue. (Uh...That I would like to see.)
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the mortgage problem is in the process of cresting, which is why the stocks have largely bottomed.
We are in the heart of default country, and we knew we would be. This is the toughest moment. You need to go back and look at the calendar to realize the astonishing acceleration in defaults. It's simple: This moment two years ago is when the underwriting standards were the lowest, and this is the moment when the defaults will be the highest because the loans are resetting at high levels and most of the lenders, lenders like Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) (Cramer's Take), are more interested in getting as much out of a borrower as possible before kicking him out than working out the loan.
Think about it.
In the second quarter of 2006, the housing industry was going strong. We were in the 7-million-homes-changing-hands mode, and the vast majority of those homes required little money down, with home equity loans being taken out immediately to pay whatever little interest was being charged. These were the moments of the ultimate no-doc-high-fee loans by New Century Financial, Ameriquest, Resmed (Ditech), American Home Mortgage, Novastar, and of course, Countrywide. This was when the homebuilders' mortgage arms lent the most terribly.
Despite the fact that the challenging housing conditions are still persisting, it looks like that some major housing companies are poised to see the light at the end of tunnel. SmartMoney underlines the fact that there has been some encouraging trend for homebuilders during the past few months.
The National Association points out that, "the housing market has shown no evidence of improvement thus far," and the sentiment index is close to a historical low.
Looking at investing in housing stocks, one analyst at T. Rowe Price, Josh Spencer, makes a two-way analysis. From his point of view, housing stocks have a lot of risk if we are talking about their volatility, but they are not as risky when referring to a long-term time horizon due to their current cheap value.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the homebuilders won't quit, and that's making the early-cycle plays work.
Have we really bottomed? The stubborn lack of decline in the homebuilders, coupled with the better-than-expected retail sales, the strong transports, and the conclusion of a deal like Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) (Cramer's Take), has created an environment where you are hard-pressed, if you rely on stocks as forecasters, to ignore the possibility of a bottom.
I watch the HGX like a hawk, the homebuilding aggregation, and it simply won't come down. That's despite the awful numbers, the covenant violations (Standard Pacific (NYSE: SPF) (Cramer's Take)) the bad loans, the lack of mortgage money, the insistence of a down payment and an abysmal spring traffic season.
So, why are people buying the group that signaled the downturn? I think it comes down to price. If you force the homebuilders to sell, as Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take) did this quarter, taking no gains on homes, you clean up inventory. If you clean up inventory, which is what happened in western Florida, you stabilize pricing. When you stabilize pricing, you bring out buyers. It is a virtuous circle.
Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) shares are falling today after the company announced Q2 preliminary earnings this morning down 30% from a year ago and that it expects more "challenging times" ahead. However, the stock might be getting some support from another part of the statement that indicated TOL is looking to use some of its available capital to make acquisitions at cheap prices. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on TOL.
After hitting a one-year high of $31.15 almost a year ago, the stock fell much of 2007 to hit a one-year low of $15.49 in January. This morning, TOL opened at $23.25. So far today the stock has hit a low of $22.66 and a high of $23.67. As of 12:45, TOL is trading at $23.00, down $0.37 (-1.6%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a June bear-call credit spread above the $27.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in six weeks as long as TOL is below $27.50 at June expiration. Toll would have to rise by more than 20% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Gas Crunch Hits Home The record-high price of gasoline is putting a strain on American motorists - and spurring some to shift their habits. Here are their stories. America's Money: Gas crunch hits home - CNNMoney.com
12 Ways to Make Your House a Cash Cow Want to earn some extra cash? Turn your home into a money-making machine. As times get tighter, many are looking for ways to save. Here are offbeat ways to bring in cash without leaving home. These include take in renters, have yard sales, throw party sales or share your garage. 12 ways to make your house a cash cow - Bankrate.com
U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday morning even after (or perhaps because) Wal-Mart reported a 7% profit rise, slightly above analyst estimates. But investors also awaited several economic indicators due out today as well as speeches from several of the Federal Reserve members.
U.S. stocks finished the day with strong gains Monday thanks to a drop in crude oil futures and several deal speculations that hit the Street. The Dow industrials went up 130 points, or 1.02%, the Nasdaq Composite was up 42 points, or 1.76%, and the S&P 500 finished the day 15 points, or 1.10%, higher.
At 8:30 a.m. EDT April export and import prices as well as retail sales data are due. Economists expect retail sales to have declined 0.2%, and excluding autos, they expect sales to have increased 0.2% in the month. The difference in the two gauges isn't surprising as higher gasoline prices were bound to put consumers off buying cars. At 10:00 a.m. EDT, March business inventory levels are due.
But other than raw data, seven Fed members are also scheduled to give speeches, including one from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Atlanta on the central bank's liquidity measures.
U.S. stock futures were mixed early Tuesday morning, trading in a narrow range as investors awaited Fed Chairman Bernenake's speech, examined oil prices and reacted to news Lehman Brothers might $4 billion in capital.
Despite the fact that the challenging housing conditions are still persisting, it looks like that some major housing companies are poised to see the light at the end of tunnel. SmartMoney 
U.S. stock futures fell Tuesday morning even after (or perhaps because) Wal-Mart reported a 7% profit rise, slightly above analyst estimates. But investors also awaited several economic indicators due out today as well as speeches from several of the Federal Reserve members.
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