Analyst Upgrades

• ThinkEquity upgraded Intel (INTC) to buy from hold and has a $25 target on the stock. The firm believes guidance will prove conservative and strong execution, new product cycle, Win7 cycle and corporate PC-Server refresh will drive shares higher.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Holly Energy (HEP) to outperform from market perform after increasing its valuation ranges for small cap pipeline MLPs. The firm raised its valuation range for Holly to $43 to $45.
• SunTrust upgraded Watsco (WSO) to buy from neutral as it believes the carrier joint venture will serve as a long-term catalyst. The firm has a $67 price target on the stock. William Blair upgraded Watsco to outperform from market perform ahead of the company's Q4 results to reflect valuation and improving economic conditions.
• Staples (SPLS) and Office Max (OMX) were upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Kellogg (K) was raised to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Advanced Micro (AMD) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) strong Q3 results topped analysts expectations, and it offered Q4 earnings guidance.
• Cascade Corp. (CASC) reported a surprise Q3 profit but lower revenue fell short of expectations.
• Collective Brands Inc. (PSS) reported strong Q3 earnings as well as same-store sales growth.
• Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) narrowed its net loss in Q3 but revenue and same-stores sales declined.
• Del Monte Foods Co. (DLM) posted strong Q2 results and raised its earnings outlook for the full year.
• Diamond Foods Inc. (DMND) posted better-than-expected Q1 earnings, but said that revenue declined.

Cost Plus Inc. (CPWM) reported Thursday that its net loss from continuing operations for the third quarter of fiscal 2009 came to $22.3 million, or $1.01 per share, compared to a net loss of $24.0 million, or $1.09 per share, last year. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a loss of $1.10 per share. Cost Plus also said net sales for the quarter totaled $181.9 million, a 10.4% decrease from the year-ago period. Same store sales for the quarter decreased 9.1% due in part to lower furniture sales and a relatively flat customer count.

Diamond Foods Inc. (DMND) reported a record profit of $0.88 per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2010. That was 38% higher than a year ago and topped the analysts' consensus forecast of $0.81 per share. Net sales for the quarter came to $180.6 million, 8% lower than in the prior year, due in part to a late walnut crop harvest. Diamond's forecast for the fiscal year are EPS of $1.72 to $1.82 and revenue of $585 million to $605 million, which is in line with analysts' expectations.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage on BloggingStocks:

• Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) lower Q3 results still topped expectations and sent shares higher.
• Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) posted much better-than-expected Q4 earnings, the first profit in a year.
• AstraZeneca (AZN) received an analyst's downgrade due to concerns over its earnings prospects.
• Blackstone Group (BX) received an analyst's upgrade following the company's Q3 results.
• Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) widened its net loss in Q3 and revenue and same-stores sales declined.
• Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE) shares declined after its Q3 numbers fell short of expectations.
• Consolidated Water Co. Inc. (CWCO) earnings prospects for 2010 earned it an analyst upgrade.

TOL opened this morning at $20.14. So far today the stock has hit a low of $20.00 and a high of $21.47. As of 11:40, TOL is trading at $21.13 up $2.74 (14.9%). The chart for TOL looks bullish and S&P gives TOL a positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy ranking.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says at least one country is getting it right when it comes to economic stimulus.

How in the heck can you get 16% industrial growth and lower-than-expected consumer price inflation? How is that possible? Yet that's what we saw from China last night, and that's a tonic to pretty much everyone who is waiting for our own stimulus to kick in.

And we need it.

On Monday, Fluor (FLR) (Cramer's Take), the giant construction company, when asked if it could quantify the value of stimulus dollars currently in backlog, said "Really, the only stimulus funding we have seen directly has been the award that we got at Savannah River for some nuclear soil remediation. And, it was, I would say, we're less than $0.5 billion."

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer does not agree with one group's idea the housing market will be hit by a glut of foreclosed homes.

Until last night, when I thought of "Amherst" I thought of a school that my eldest daughter debated applying to. Not anymore. Nope. Now there's a new Amherst in town -- Amherst Securities. Last night this firm, which trades mortgage-backed securities, became the new expert on housing when it issued a report saying that we were going to have another leg down because the market is about to get hit by 7 million foreclosed homes.

Downbeat. Horrible. Sell the homebuilders. Sell the banks. Huge wave of foreclosures coming.

Yeah.

Got it.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says don't heed the pundits -- allow yourself to believe things are improving.

Skeptical, or impossible? That's how I am posing the dilemma of the "pull through" argument whether it involves Ford (NYSE: F) (Cramer's Take) and "Cash for Clunkers" or Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) (Cramer's Take), Lennar (NYSE: LEN) (Cramer's Take), Toll (NYSE: TOL) (Cramer's Take), KB Home (NYSE: KBH) and Pulte (NYSE: PHM) (Cramer's Take) and the $8,000 tax credit.

Right now any time there is a stimulus program of any sort, the pundits/media/money managers all decide the most important single issue isn't what it will do to the numbers, or whether it will work at all, but what will it do to the "pull through." How much of future sales will it "steal"?

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the action that is linked to the futures markets, such as oil, is distorting rational analysis.

Maybe one day we can escape the commodity linkage and begin to trade on the fundamentals again, something that seems more distant now than any time I can recall. We are totally marching to gold, to oil, to copper, and not the fundamentals.

Throughout the era in which China has become a superpower and hedge funds have become the super arbiters or what goes up or down, we have been stuck with this fairly bogus linkage that corrupts trading and makes a mockery out of some of the most important financial analysis out there, the actual attempts to discover what's really happening at companies.

Here are some highlights from last week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (NYSE: AEO) Q2 profit fell short of estimates as same-store sales declined.
• Ann Taylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) Q2 earnings beat very low expectations and same-store sales fell.
• Big Lots Inc. (NYSE: BIG) reported better-than-expected numbers for Q2, sending shares upward.
• Burger King Holdings Inc. (NYSE: BKC) posted a better-than-expected Q4 profit though revenue declined.
• China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. posted a record Q2 profit after restrictions on fuel prices were lifted.
• Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) said its Q2 earnings declined, but they still topped analysts' expectations.

Shares in Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) struggled to hold onto ground gained early in the trading session, a day after the luxury home-builder reported a much larger quarterly loss. Shares rallied shortly after the morning bell on comments from Toll on Thursday that it sees the U.S. housing market beginning to stabilize.

Trading volume hit a peak just before 10 a.m. ET when 95,000 shares traded hands. But a new survey showing a decline in consumer confidence helped push trading volume lower and the stock dipped into negative territory before resuming positive gains.

If you listen to the majority of economists out there, they will tell you that the collapse of the housing market was one of the major factors that pushed us into the current recession. They will also tell you that a recovery in the housing market will be necessary if we are to ever pull out of this recession.

So it's no surprise that, with all of that in mind, economists and investors have been excited to see improvements in the housing market this summer.

For instance, the New Home Sales number released on Wednesday by the Census Bureau showed that sales rose more than expected in July -- to 433,000.

The recent strong gains in stock prices appear to have many investors cautious as August winds down. With stock indexes at the highest points all year, any gains may be modest on Wall Street today.

Stocks rose slightly yesterday on news that oil inventories last week were higher than anticipated, leading to speculation that an economic recovery, if on its way, may be slow and anemic.

Stocks to watch include luxury home-builder Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL), which reported Thursday morning a much larger quarterly loss of $472.3 million, or $2.93 a share, compared to a loss of $29.3 million, or 18 cents a share, a year ago. Included in the loss was a $439.4 million non-cash deferred tax allowance and write-downs totaling $115 million in the quarter. Last year's results included write-downs of $139.4 million. New home buyers wait-and-see attitudes took a toll on the company's revenues, which fell 42% to $461.3 million. But the company said it sees signs of stabilization in the housing market. The company is scheduled to discuss its fiscal third-quarter results today in a conference call at 2 p.m. ET.

Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) is scheduled to discuss its fiscal third-quarter 2009 results tomorrow in a conference call at 2:00 PM ET hosted by CEO Robert I. Toll. You can catch the live webcast of the call on the company's website.

Recent good news about the housing sector ought to be good news for homebuilders such as Toll Brothers. Yet, for the three months that ended July 31, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect the Pennsylvania-based company to report that its net loss widened to $1.74 per share from $0.18 per share a year ago. That largely due to the fact that revenue for the quarter is expected to have fallen 42.3% to $460.2 million, because of of falling home prices, tighter mortgage lending standards, and rising unemployment.

Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Advanced Micro (NYSE: AMD) to Buy from Hold and raised its target to $5.50 from $4.25 citing valuation and expectations for the company's competitive position and gross margins to improve.
• Barclays upgraded American Express (NYSE: AXP) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing long-term earnings growth as the company benefits from declining charge-offs and credit costs. The firm has a $38 target on the stock.
• JPMorgan upgraded Arch Coal (NYSE: ACI) to Overweight from Neutral and raised its target to $22 from $19 citing the FTC approval for the acquisition of Jacobs Ranch mine and valuation.
• Bebe Stores (NASDAQ: BEBE) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens.
• Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ: CAKE) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray.
• Ashland (NYSE: ASH) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc.