Posted Jul 2nd 2009 2:15PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Analyst upgrades and downgrades, Time Warner (TWX), Film, Marvel Entertainment (MVL)

Ah, an upgrade of an old favorite of mine.
Marvel Entertainment (NYSE:
MVL). I've owned this one in the past. Never lost money on it. I'd like to be back in Marvel. Only one problem.
Yesterday, Marvel, a company whose comic library competes with Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and its own stable of superheroes, received an upgrade from JPMorgan. It now is in the Overweight camp. Before, it was merely Neutral. As you might expect, the stock reacted. There was no way the market was going to ignore this because, really, Marvel is one of those stocks that does show a lot of promise considering that the sequel to Iron Man is due out next summer. Shares closed over 5% higher on Wednesday in reaction to the headline. The professional traders must loved the action.
Continue reading Is Marvel getting away?
Posted Jun 29th 2009 8:00AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA), Hasbro Inc (HAS), Film
Well, Viacom's (NYSE: VIA) Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen took command of the domestic box-office weekend. No surprise after observing what the film did last Wednesday when it opened. According to Boxofficemojo, Fallen, as of early estimates, grossed $112 million during the three-day period starting Friday. The film has taken in over $200 million so far once the days leading up to the weekend are added in. Excellent business. Especially considering that the sequel is doing better than its predecessor at this point, according to a comparison chart (this chart includes a comparison with Iron Man as well, so just focus on the Transformers franchise).
Growth. You've got to love it. I'm sure Viacom does. Disney (NYSE: DIS) isn't doing badly, either. Although not a huge hit, The Proposal did respectable business. It came in second with $18 million. It should eventually reach $100 million.
Continue reading Viacom's 'Transformers' takes over the multiplex
Posted Jun 26th 2009 5:30PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Time Warner (TWX), Viacom (VIA), Media World, Film
So, earlier in the week, I discussed Michael Bay and his freak-out with Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA) over the marketing quality on his latest film, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. Turns out Mike had nothing to worry about.
This film is doing great. At the time of this writing, the film was estimated to have grossed over $60 million on its opening day, which was this past Wednesday. Now, I hate talking about the breaking of this record and that record. Hollywood loves to point out that Movie X achieved the highest gross for a film released on a cloudy day in late September when the moon was full and a new supernova was spotted in the constellation of Cygnus. I'd rather talk about how much profit was achieved, and how much return on capital was recorded (too bad media companies don't have to reveal such data). Nevertheless, I'll give Viacom and Fallen credit. It apparently scored the biggest Wednesday opening ever, and it should theoretically have a great weekend, assuming word of mouth is good. So far, I've only heard superlative things about this particular piece of celluloid, and I know of one person who immediately consulted her cell phone to schedule a time to see the picture with her friends when she heard how awesome it was.
Continue reading Viacom scores with 'Transformers' -- good for Time Warner's 'Potter'?
Posted Jun 15th 2009 8:30AM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), Sony Corp ADR (SNE), Film
If this weekend's box office results say anything, it's that success in the movie business resists predictability. How else do you explain the money that Time Warner's (NYSE: TWX) The Hangover is grossing? I haven't seen the film, so I'm sure there's something to it. Nevertheless, it just didn't seem like it would be a big hit. Guess the word of mouth on it has been pretty good.
Hangover, as of early estimates at Boxofficemojo, took in $33 million at domestic theaters over the past three days, good for first place. It beat Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar project Up, which took in about $30 million and came in second. Hangover actually was the number-one movie last weekend as well. So far, it's taken in more than $100 million.
Continue reading Time Warner's 'Hangover' beats Sony's new action flick
Posted Jun 8th 2009 5:40PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), Viacom (VIA), Media World
Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA), a media company that competes with entities such as The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS), General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC Universal, and Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX), held its annual shareholder meeting last week. An article from The Hollywood Reporter recounted a few tidbits from the gathering.
As you can imagine, the CEO, Philippe Dauman, was pretty happy about the company's stock performance. He pointed out that it has been strong against the broader market this year. While that might be comforting, the longer-term performance of Viacom shares has not been so rosy.
Continue reading Can Viacom create long-term value?
Posted Jun 8th 2009 3:00PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS), News Corp'B' (NWS), Film
Recently, DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) announced that it would be making more movies. According to the press release, the move calls for five movies every two years. The plan would be for one year to have the normal two projects, while the next year would have three releases.
This is an interesting scheme. It has many implications. First, it means that CEO Jeffrey Katzenberg is extremely confident in his company's ability to produce compelling content. Second, it means that he believes that 3D theaters will be more important than ever in the near future. Third, it is a direct attack against Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Pixar asset. DreamWorks Animation is, without a doubt, becoming much more cutthroat in its competitive stance.
Continue reading Should DreamWorks Animation make more movies?
Posted Jun 2nd 2009 4:30PM by Steven Mallas
Filed under: Press releases, General Electric (GE), Time Warner (TWX), Walt Disney (DIS)
I'm always looking for a catalyst that is going to take Disney (NYSE: DIS) to the next level. The stock hasn't been a great performer over time. Just today, the Mouse issued a press release detailing its latest merchandising plans.
Merchandising falls under the consumer products division. Now, one would expect that this segment would always be rocking considering the brand equity inherent in all of Disney's intellectual properties. Well, let's remind ourselves of how the segment did during the last earnings report. In the second quarter, operating income for consumer products dipped 24%. For the six-month period, operating income was down by 13%. Double-digit declines: nobody likes them. Management commentary about the division specifically stated that lower royalty revenue from merchandise helped to drive the performance. As can be seen, Disney needs some good ideas and strategies to return this segment to growth.
Continue reading Can Disney license its way to a stock rebound?
Posted Jun 2nd 2009 3:20PM by Sheldon Liber
Filed under: Internet, Rants and raves, Competitive strategy, Time Warner (TWX), Media World
Last week it was announced that the long-anticipated separation of AOL from Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is set to happen before the end of the year -- then what?
If all goes well, AOL will set its own course sustaining what's left of its internet prominence, after falling from what was once internet dominance before its merger with TWX, and the continuous contraction of its dial-up subscriptions.
AOL still attracts more than 100 million Internet users to its online content portal, which includes BloggingStocks, so the adventure will continue. And, an AD-venture it is sure to be.
The same is true for Time Warner, the world's largest media conglomerate with operations spanning film, television, cable TV, and publishing. It will have an AD-venture of its own.
Continue reading TWX to let AOL run free -- good idea!
Posted May 28th 2009 9:20AM by Paul Foster
Filed under: Time Warner (TWX), Options
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) is recently trading at $23.57 in pre-open trading, above its close of $23. TWX announced plans to separate AOL from TWX in a tax free transaction. TWX June option implied volatility is at 48; July is at 46; below its 26-week average of 56, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.
Volatility Index S&P 500 Options (CBOE: VIX) at 32.36; 10-day moving average is 31.31.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
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