Analyst Upgrades

• Molycorp (MCP) to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Humana (HUM), HealthSpring (HS) and UnitedHealth (UNH) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Williams Cos. (WMB) to conviction buy from neutral and UBS (UBS) to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• China Kanghui (KH) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) to buy from hold at Citigroup.
• Armstrong World (AWI) to buy from hold at BB&T.
• Time Warner (TWX) to buy from hold at Benchmark Co.
• Calpine (CPN) to overweight from equal weight at Barclays.
• 3M Company (MMM) to neutral from underperform and Kirby (KEX) to buy from underperform at BofA/Merrill.

Williams Companies (WMB) will separate into two stand-alone, publicly traded corporations. The plan calls for Williams to separate its exploration and production business via an initial public offering in 3Q 2011 of up to 20% of its interest and, in 2012, a tax-free spinoff to Williams shareholders of its remaining interest. Overall option implied volatility of 41 is above its 26-week average of 37, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

MSCI Brazil Index (EWZ) overall option implied volatility of 26 is near its 26-week average of 27, according to Track Data, suggesting nondirectional price movement.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Williams Companies (WMB - option chain) shares are soaring today to a new two-year high after the company announced fiscal-Q4 earnings this morning, posting an adjusted profit of 44 cents per share, topping analysts' forecast of 27 cents per share. WMB also announced plans to split into two standalone companies. WMB will spin off its exploration and production business in the third quarter. Finally, WMB said it will lift its quarterly dividend to 20 cents per share from 12.5 cents per share beginning in June. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on WMB.

This is the fifth year that I am posting my stock picks for the year. There is a lot of foolishness in doing so because each year that I have made such suggestions, including 2009 when I owned all of the picks, it is assumed that I would hold all of the positions without responding to market conditions, or changes in the specific company. No adding to, or cutting a position. This is not the real world.

It is not possible for everything to remain static. For example, you might find that you hold a stock that made a great run through three quarters, beyond your wildest expectations, and decide it has passed a point where the metrics cannot support anything close to the price. Under normal circumstances you might sell it, except you cannot. By the end of the year the profit you might have realized fades away and you end up reporting on something that is not a true measure of your objective strategy. Nevertheless, once again I will stick with this approach because this seems to be how its done in every publication's annual picks. This year there are eleven.

The year 2010 has come and gone and my results are in. This is my fourth annual stock results to be reported on BlogginStocks, so something of a track record is starting to form. This past year ended with a modest improvement over the unmanaged Standard & Poors 500 index

The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010, took readers through a review of many candidates, concluding with the ten picks, using prices from Dec. 28, 2009.

The first quarter of 2010 is closed and the results are in. My picks surpassed the primary indices by a large margin. The original story, Chasing Value: 10 Stock Picks for 2010 , was the culmination of a process presented to our readers and finally narrowed down to the select group using final prices from Monday, December 28, 2009.

During my tenure at BloggingStocks I have expressed my opinion often about the contribution that dividends make to your overall return. Most shrewd investors, and especially "my pal Warren," know this and understand why I re-emphasize the point when I make my annual selections.

By now I hope you have had a chance to peruse my picks for 2010. If not the links below will give you another opportunity.

The first four picks were all from the contenders list, but here I reach back to earlier in the year, when in May, I wrote about why I thought Williams Companies Inc. (WMB) would outperform four other, more popular stocks.

I compared it to Apple Inc. (AAPL), Google Inc. (GOOG), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.B).

During the past seven months this turned out to be true for half the period, but Apple came on strong and passed it by the second review.

The 5 data points were price-to-sales (P/S), price-to-book (P/B), price-to-cash flow (P/CF), dividend yield and return-on-equity (ROE). I did look at other things but these were the subject of my initial focus.

Yesterday my 2009 portfolio closed up 201% for the year. It has been an interesting journey, and while it is rather self congratulatory to discuss it, there are lessons to be learned.

Before I review some of the reasons I was able to do this I want to make it clear that I do not think this can be easily repeated; I look at the portfolio every day thinking this is too good to be true, and we all know what that usually means.

"Despite coming close to bankruptcy in 2002, Williams Co. (NYSE: WMB) has some of the premier assets in each of its business segments: exploration & production, mid-stream and pipelines," says turnaround expert George Putnam.

In his The Turnaround Letter, he explains, "The company now has the financial strength not only to survive the current downturn but to grow and prosper."

"Begun in 1908 as a pipeline construction company, Williams is now a major, integrated natural gas company; it produces, gathers, processes and transports natural gas throughout the United States.

In April, I did a series of posts on Williams Companies (NYSE: WMB) starting with Chasing Value: Williams has the pipes and it's not blowing smoke.

I have also been writing about my investments in naked puts.

Now, I want to share one of the things I have done this year that has helped me obtain over a 100% return for 2009 at one point last month, which has since fallen back to 82%. This is not something I could have predicted, but I am not complaining.