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Oil execs at Congress today: Defending tax breaks, explaining oil prices

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 10:22:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Products and Services, Management, Insiders, Industry, Law, Consumer Experience, Exxon Mobil (XOM), Scandals, Chevron Corp (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP p.l.c. ADS (BP), Politics, Oil

U.S. lawmakers are going to get their chance today to ask executives from five of the world's largest oil companies what their take is on current gasoline prices.

Executives from the top three American oil companies -- Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM), Chevron (NYSE: CVX) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) -- will be present at today's hearing, as well as executives from BP (NYSE: BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A). While the executives are predictably going to blame the current high gasoline prices on surging oil, it will still be interesting to see just how hard lawmakers hit the executives.

For the executives, it can't be a good feeling to be walking into today's hearing. The hearing is being called "Drilling for Answers: Oil Company Profits, Runaway Prices and the Pursuit of Alternatives." The hearings will be chaired by Rep. Ed Markey of Massachusetts, who in the past has been a vocal critic of the oil industry.

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Oil falls under $100

Michael Fowlkes — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 11:35:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Commodities, Oil

Yesterday, we took a look at falling oil prices, and that trend has continued today, sending prices below the $100 mark. As we mentioned yesterday, the selling was coming as traders have turned their attention to demand, and that is the same story that we are seeing again today.

Right now prices are trading just slightly higher than the psychological $100 barrier, at $100.31, but only a short time ago prices had retreated all the way down to $98.65.

One thing that we always like to keep track of is the weekly inventory reports from the U.S. Department of Energy. These reports are typically issued each Wednesday, and going into yesterday's report analysts had been looking to see a rise of 2.3 million barrels. While the market was given news of rising inventories, the numbers were actually much lower than had been expected, with an increase of 200,000 barrels.

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Oil extends its pullback following today's inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 19 Mar 2008 13:15:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Economic Data, Commodities, Oil, Recession

As we discussed earlier today, oil prices had been falling this morning in anticipation of a bearish oil inventory report, and now prices are moving even more to the downside after the release of the actual report from the U.S. Department of Energy.

Earlier this morning, prices had dropped $2.90, but after the actual report became available prices have fallen even more, and are currently trading down $4.59 to $104.83. What is a bit surprising is that prices have extended so far even though the report was less bearish than had been predicted.

Analysts had been looking to see an increase of 2.3 million barrels, but the actual report showed that inventories rose "only" by 200,000 barrels. Usually, seeing a smaller than expected jump would lead you to believe that prices would rally, but the market has shifted a bit, and we are now seeing more attention being given to demand.

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Oil breaks through $106!

Michael Fowlkes — Fri, 07 Mar 2008 12:35:00 EST

Filed under: Middle East, Commodities, Oil

It seems like everyday we are seeing new highs for oil, and today is no exception, with prices hitting a high today of $106.42, and are currently trading up $0.84 to $106.31.

It is not surprising that as we see oil continue to head higher, we also have the other side of the coin that shows the dollar falling to new lows. As the market continues to push the dollar lower, you have to wonder just how high oil is headed? It took so long for oil to break through the psychological $100 barrier, and now, as Joseph Lazzaro pointed out earlier, there is already talk of a $100 floor for oil.

Last night we saw oil close at an all time of $105.47, and judging by the looks of things right now, we are going to be setting yet another record close again today. For now it looks as though there really is not too much that could turn the recent price surge around.

This week the market was impacted by a surprising decline in U.S. inventories, and the official (albeit expected) announcement from OPEC that it would not be lifting production quotas. Look for oil prices to remain strong at least until the middle of next week, and depending on next week's inventory report we could easily be looking at $110 oil. Scary... but definitely not out of the question at this point.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

Oil breaks through $106! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Mar 2008 12:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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According to Buffett, America is already in a recession

Michael Fowlkes — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 15:38:00 EST

Filed under: Forecasts, Consumer Experience, Economic Data, Commodities, Oil, Housing, Federal Reserve, Recession

Over the past six or eight months we have heard more and more chatter about the dreaded "R" word. The dreaded "R" word being recession, and depending on who you listen to, you have either been laughing at the possibility of America sliding into a recession, or you have been preparing for the inevitable.

Well, now, trusted billionaire Warren Buffett has come out and stated that America is already "essentially" in a recession. Buffett is basing his stance on numbers he has seen from his retail business that show a significant slow down in spending. While he has stated that we have basically already entered into recessionary times, he stopped short of predicting just how bad things would get.

While we may not be technically in a recession period, according to Buffett, we are in the middle of a commonsense recession. Not only does he see retail spending on the decline, but also pointed to the fact that an untold millions of Americans have had the misfortune of watching their homes shrink in value, a scenario that has yet to reverse.

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Oil climbs to new highs

Michael Fowlkes — Mon, 03 Mar 2008 12:02:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Politics, Commodities, Oil, Federal Reserve

Oil prices rose to new highs today, with crude moving up as high as $103.95 earlier in the session, before cooling off slightly. Prices are now trading at $103.36, up $1.52.

There are two main driving forces today that are pushing prices higher. The first is the continued weakness of the U.S. dollar, and the second is the general consensus that OPEC will decide to leave output unchanged at this week's meeting.

First, taking a look at the dollar, today it hit a new record low versus the euro. The dollar continues to suffer as world markets prepare for a possible recession hitting America this year. With America's economic slowdown on traders' minds, the dollar continues to fall as many expect that the Federal Reserve is going to be forced to cut interest rates even further to keep the economy moving. Of course, any rate cuts will only further weaken the already struggling currency.

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What is OPEC to do?

Michael Fowlkes — Fri, 29 Feb 2008 14:47:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Rumors, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Oil, Recession

With the recent surge in oil prices, many of you out there may be hoping to see OPEC come in and cool the market with a production increase, but that is far from likely to occur. In fact, OPEC now finds itself in a pretty unusual position (wsj.com subscription required), with the likely outcome being that the group will decide to do nothing at all.

So what exactly is OPEC looking at? The most obvious factor that the group must contend with is all time highs in oil, and a current cost per barrel of $102.50. For so long we kept wondering if / when we would be seeing $100 oil, and that time has come, and now it seems like oil has formed a pretty solid base of support above the psychological $100 barrier. This would typically lead you to believe that OPEC would come in and lift production in order to cool off prices.

But, on the other hand, OPEC also has to contend with a weakening dollar, fears over a possible recession, and rising inventories in America. All three of these, by themselves alone, would be enough to put pressure on OPEC to actually look at tightening its supplies. The group definitely doesn't want to see a recession spread across America and put a serious crimp in the nation's appetite for oil.

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What is OPEC to do? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 29 Feb 2008 14:47:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Oil slightly lower ahead of today's inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Thu, 21 Feb 2008 09:51:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Commodities, Oil, Federal Reserve, Recession

After oil prices traded momentarily above $101, prices are down a bit today in anticipation of a bearish oil inventory report coming later in the day. Traders have shaved 31 cents off the price of oil today, down to $99.39.

Oil has definitely been on a strong run over the past two weeks, picking up close to $15 as investors have been rushing into the precious crude as a hedge against possible rising inflation. Adding more concern to the market were comments from the Federal Reserve that indicated we would be looking at low interest rates for some time to come.

As Joseph Lazzaro pointed out to our readers yesterday, the Fed has not only raised its inflation estimates, but at the same time announced that it is is expecting to remain in an environment of low interest rates. What does this mean for the oil market? Simple -- low rates typically lead to a weaker dollar, which in turn props oil prices higher. Basically, the Fed has overridden fears of a slowing economy impacting oil demand, and instead created the general impression that $100 oil is here to stay.

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Oil stays positive, despite bearish inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 16:20:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Oil, Federal Reserve

When we looked at oil prices this morning, we noted that traders had pushed up prices on two factors; anticipation of a rate cut from the Fed, and anticipation of a possible bullish inventory report today from the U.S. Energy Department. Well, The Fed did cut rates by 50 basis, but the inventory report this week was more on the bearish side.

Traders have opted to keep oil prices in the green today, focusing on the Fed's decision instead of the the government report that showed inventories rose more than expected last week. Going into today's report, the market was expecting to see a rise of 2.3 million barrels, but what we actually saw was a bit more than 50% higher than estimates at 3.6 million barrels.

This is the sort of news that would usually lead to oil prices heading into negative territory, but not today. The 50 basis point cut from the Fed can be given credit for today's move in oil prices. Prices are currently trading up 66 cents to $92.30. At these prices, we are just about even with where we were earlier this morning before the report hit the market.

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Oil moves higher as traders look to the Fed for further rate cuts

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 30 Jan 2008 08:45:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Middle East, Economic Data, Commodities, Oil, Federal Reserve, Recession

When the Federal Reserve finishes up its two-day meeting this afternoon, it is widely expected that we will be in store for at least another 50 basis point cut, and possibly more. In anticipation for another cut, oil prices have moved higher today, picking up $0.59 to $92.23.

It was just last week that the Federal Reserve made the decision to step in with an emergency 75 basis point rate cut, but the consensus on Wall Street is that another rate cut is coming today, with the intended goal of putting a curb on America's slowing economic landscape. Oil traders appear to be banking on news of lower rates, and that has resulted in today's upward move in oil prices.

Since America is currently the world's largest oil consumer, any economic slowdown occurring in America will definitely have an impact on global oil demand. As recession fears have become more widespread since the start of the year, oil prices saw a 10%+ correction, falling from a recent $100 a barrel down to nearly $85 last week.

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Occidental Petroleum (OXY) trades higher on strong earnings

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 29 Jan 2008 12:24:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Competitive Strategy, Commodities, Oil

Oil and Gas giant Occidental Petroleum Corp. (NYSE: OXY) has had a nice 2% jump this morning following the company's announcement that its fourth quarter profit surged 56%.

It really shouldn't come as too much of a surprise that the company was able to rake in strong earnings considering just how high oil prices were during the fourth quarter. Occidental had been expected to show earnings this morning of $1.69 and surprised Wall Street with actual earnings of $1.74.

For the full year, the company posted its strongest ever yearly numbers. The full year profit came in at $5.4 billion, which is 28.9% higher than the $4.19 billion profit that the company realized in 2006.

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Bush pleads his case to OPEC for greater output, issues warning to Iran

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 15 Jan 2008 09:17:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Politics, Oil

While traveling in the Middle East today, President George Bush made his case to OPEC nations for an increase in global oil supplies. Bush stated that current high oil prices could create an economic slowdown in America and that all consuming economies could feel the pain of recent record high prices.

The statement came during the President's first visit to OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia, and he argued that a slowdown by consuming economies, such as the United States, would lead to less oil and gas purchases which will in turn hurt OPEC nations. Bush has also visited Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates and is doing his best to spread his view that "oil prices are very high, which is tough on our economy".

OPEC will next meet on February 1 to discuss the possibility of increasing supplies. Bush is not the only one in the Middle East pleading their case for OPEC's lifting of their quotas. U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman headed to the Middle East yesterday to push for increased output from the cartel.

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Oil prices hit the $100 mark

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 13:00:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Forecasts, Consumer Experience, Commodities, Oil

For the first time ever oil prices have busted through the psychological $100 mark.

As Joseph Lazzaro mentioned earlier this morning, concerns over unrest in Nigeria, along with expectations of a bullish inventory report from the Energy Department had been the forces pushing prices higher, and now prices have finally been able to hit the $100 mark.

This week's inventory report, which is typically released on Wednesdays, will be coming out a day late due to the fact that the market was closed yesterday for New Years. We will see if prices are able to hold onto the century mark once we get tomorrow's data.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last four years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer

Oil prices hit the $100 mark originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 02 Jan 2008 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Weekly inventory report pushes oil prices even lower

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 28 Nov 2007 13:25:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Forecasts, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Oil, Federal Reserve

It is hard to believe that just two days ago we were sitting here wondering if Monday would be the day we saw $100 a barrel for oil. Prices have been falling all week, and are moving sharply lower today following a bearish inventory report from the US Department of Energy.

Today's report showed that last week oil inventories fell by 400,000 barrels. I have found two conflicting reports online where one showed analysts polled by Dow Jones were expecting to see a 500,000 barrel drop, and another article showed analysts expecting the 400,000 barrel decrease that we did see. Either way, the main point is that inventories did not drop more than expected, which is what is pushing prices lower.

Prices had already been showing signs of weakness earlier in the day on mixed messages from OPEC, and all week traders have been pushing prices lower on fears of an economic slowdown.

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Oil inventories show surprising declines last week

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 13:32:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Middle East, Oil

When we took a look at the current oil picture this morning, we noted that analysts were expecting to see an 800,000 barrel increase in oil supplies last week. Well, that was not to be, and instead the US Energy Department just announced that inventories actually dropped by 1.1 million barrels.

With prices already trading near to the $100 mark, today's report could be just what the market needed to break through the psychological barrier. Before the report came out, prices had actually moved into the red on the day, but quickly rebounded back into positive territory, currently trading up 0.16% on the day to $98.20.

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$100 oil ... Will today be the day?

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 09:07:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Forecasts, Oil

For about the past month now it has looked as though $100 oil was on the horizon, but could today finally be the day that we do indeed see prices crossing through the psychological $100 barrier? Don't be too surprised if it is, with prices already trading above $99 ahead of today's inventory report.

Later this morning we are going to get a very important piece of information from the US Energy Department when it reports last week's inventory numbers. Analysts are expected to see a rise in inventories of 800,000 barrels, but the market has been acting as if it believes we will not see this much of an increase. With prices flirting so close to the $100 mark you can be sure that if inventories do come in below expectations we will be reading about $100 oil before the end of the day.

We will also be watching for gasoline supplies. On average, analysts are expecting to see a 700,000 lift in gasoline inventories in this week's report. While gasoline did fall a bit last night, we are still looking at a national average of $3.09 for a gallon of regular unleaded. This is an amazing increase from the average this time last year when prices at the pump were $2.24, but down from the high of $3.23 we saw back on May 24.

Today's inventory report should be out 10:30 AM EST, and we will post the results as they become available.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

$100 oil ... Will today be the day? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 21 Nov 2007 09:07:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Oil prices creep slightly higher to end week

Michael Fowlkes — Fri, 09 Nov 2007 17:30:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Economic Data, Oil, Federal Reserve

After pulling back yesterday, oil prices once again moved a bit higher today to close out the week as supply concerns continue to weigh on the mind of traders.

Earlier this week it looked as though we may be seeing $100 oil this week, but that was just not meant to be, not yet at least. On Wednesday, prices hit a high of $98.62 before trading lower in the afternoon session on a slightly bullish inventory report from the Energy Department.

Then yesterday prices pulled back after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy is in danger of economic slowdown in the months to come. Pointing to the current housing slump, Bernanke said that we can expect to see business growth slow considerably in the upcoming months, but would not indicate whether or not we should plan on seeing a rate cut during the next Fed meeting.

Today, prices rebounded on news that there were two shutdowns in the North Sea that once again stoked fears of a supply crunch. Prices rose as high as $96.68 before selling off a bit to $96.20, up $0.74 or 0.76% on the day.

Michael Fowlkes has worked as a stock trader for seven years and spent the last two years working as an analyst for the online investment advisory service Investor's Observer.

Oil prices creep slightly higher to end week originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Nov 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Oil soars to new highs, is $100 oil around the corner?

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 11:40:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Oil

Oil prices have once again set a new record today, with prices moving as high as $97 a barrel earlier in the session, and are currently trading up $2.73 to $96.63.

Today's move comes as traders are becoming increasingly worried about supply concerns as winter weather has finally started moving across the Northern Hemisphere. So far this year, mother nature has spared us from onslaught of wintry weather, but now that is changing, and the market is reacting. The past two weeks we have seen greater than expected declines in crude inventories in America, and analysts are expecting even more drops to be announced tomorrow when the Department of Energy releases its weekly inventory report.

Analysts are expecting to see a drop of 1.6 million barrels, and if we get reports of anything greater than that I would not be surprised at all to be sitting here writing about oil at $100 before the week is out. Consider this, before last week's report, prices were trading down to around $90.50, so a move from current prices to the psychological $100 barrier is not by no means out of the question.

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Oil prices move back higher today

Michael Fowlkes — Fri, 02 Nov 2007 13:32:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Products and Services, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Economic Data, Politics, Oil

After a brief selloff yesterday, oil prices have been moving higher in today's action. Buyers have come back into the market today and pushed prices up as high as $95.00 earlier in the session, Prices nd are now up $1.20 to $94.69.

The main reason why prices have turned higher today is optimism about the economy created by this morning's better than expected October payroll report. According to the U.S. Labor Department, October saw a 166,000 increase in payrolls, which was more than twice the 80,000 increase that analysts expected.

The better-than-expected payroll report was enough to create some optimism of the overall economy, and put some recession fears to rest. According to Michael Lynch, who is president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc., "It suggests that concerns about the economy ... are overblown a little bit."

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Oil sets another record after a bullish inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 15:35:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, International Markets, Consumer Experience, Middle East, Oil, Federal Reserve

Oil prices are once again trading at record highs today following a very bullish inventory report from the U.S. Energy Department. Prices had been down earlier in the session, but are currently trading up $3.90 to $94.28 after setting a new record of $94.56 earlier in the session.

Today's price move comes in reaction to the weekly inventory report which showed that America's oil supplies have dropped to a new 2-year low. Leading into today's report, analysts had been expecting to see a rise last week of 400,000 barrels of crude, but were shocked to discover that supplies actually fell by 3.89 million barrels.

On Monday I wrote a post posing the question of if and or when we will be seeing $100 oil. In that article I stated that I felt we were definitely heading to $100 oil, but that it would probably take a couple more weeks to get there. That was, unless we got another big miss in inventories, which we now have seen.

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